Pre-Match Report: Bologna vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Match Preview
Bologna will host Shakhtar Donetsk in their opening fixture of the UEFA Champions League 2024/2025 season. The match is scheduled to take place on Wednesday, September 18, 2024, at 17:45 (GMT) at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna. This marks Bologna's return to Europe's elite competition after a six-decade absence. Shakhtar Donetsk, a seasoned participant in the Champions League, will look to start their campaign on a positive note.
Team Form and Performance
Bologna
Bologna enters this match winless in their current season. Under new coach Vincenzo Italiano, the team has struggled to find form, recording disappointing home draws and a 3-0 defeat to Napoli. In their most recent outing, Bologna had to come from two goals down to salvage a point against promoted side Como. They currently occupy 17th place in the Serie A standings. The team's performance has been hampered by injuries to key players, affecting their overall cohesion and effectiveness on the pitch.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk, the reigning Ukrainian Premier League champions, come into this match with a more consistent track record in European competitions. Although they have experienced mixed results recently, including two losses this season after suffering only three defeats last term, they sit sixth in their domestic league after five matches. In their latest match, a 5-2 win over Karpaty Lviv, Artem Bondarenko scored a hat-trick, showcasing the team's attacking prowess. Shakhtar's experience in the Champions League could provide them with a psychological edge over their opponents.
Key Players and Injuries
Bologna
- Injuries: Oussama El Azzouzi and Nicolo Cambiaghi are both out with serious knee injuries sustained last month. Scottish midfielder Lewis Ferguson is recovering from an ACL injury and is still working his way back to full fitness.
- Returning Players: Defenders Emil Holm and Martin Erlic have returned to the bench after recovering from injuries.
- Key Player: Captain Riccardo Orsolini, who scored from the penalty spot on Serie A's opening matchday, will be pivotal in leading the team's attack.
Shakhtar Donetsk
- Key Players:
- Danylo Sikan – Joint top scorer this season with three goals. Last season, he scored four goals in six Champions League appearances.
- Georgiy Sudakov – A creative force in midfield, he created the most chances (10) and completed the most passes (229) of any Shakhtar player in last year's Champions League group stage.
- Injuries: Marlon Gomes returned from a hamstring injury at the weekend, after a month-long absence.
Head-to-Head Statistics
This match marks the first competitive meeting between Bologna and Shakhtar Donetsk. Bologna is making their Champions League debut in the competition's newly expanded format for 2024-25. Historically, Bologna has never lost at home in European competitions, winning 15 of 23 matches at Stadio Dall'Ara to date. On the other hand, Shakhtar Donetsk has struggled when playing in Italy, having lost 10 of 15 previous meetings with Serie A sides.
Betting Insights
| Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna Win | 1.9 | 52.63% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 29.41% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk Win | 4.1 | 24.39% |
Recommendation: Shakhtar Donetsk to win.
Risk Analysis: The implied probability for Bologna to win is approximately 52.63% based on the odds of 1.9. However, considering Bologna's current form, winless streak, and key injuries, the risk associated with betting on them is higher. The risk is dynamically adjusted to 0.47, indicating a moderate level of uncertainty in Bologna's ability to secure a victory. Shakhtar Donetsk's experience in the Champions League and recent performances suggest they are a viable option, potentially offering value at odds of 4.1.
Commentary: After reviewing the latest information, Shakhtar Donetsk appears to be the stronger bet. Despite Bologna's home advantage and historical unbeaten record in European competitions at Stadio Dall'Ara, their current form is concerning. Additionally, their new coach Vincenzo Italiano has yet to secure a competitive win. On the other hand, Shakhtar Donetsk has key players like Danylo Sikan and Georgiy Sudakov who can make a significant impact. The psychological edge and experience in European competitions favor Shakhtar Donetsk.
Conclusion
Based on the teams' current form, key player availability, and historical data, Shakhtar Donetsk is recommended as the favorable bet for this match. Bettors should consider the moderate risk associated with Bologna's potential performance due to injuries and recent results.
