Correlation between AI confidence level and prediction accuracy by sport. Shows which confidence ranges perform best for each sport.
Correlation between source quality (avg. source confidence) and prediction accuracy by sport. High-quality sources have 70%+ average confidence.
Analysis of 304 completed predictions revealed an optimal "sweet spot" combination of AI confidence and source quality that achieves 74-86% accuracy - significantly higher than the overall 56.2% average.
Formula: Bet Amount = Base Bet × Kelly Fraction × Edge
Edge Calculation: Edge = (Confidence × Odds) - 1
Example: Base bet of $10, 70% confidence, odds of 2.5, Kelly fraction of 0.25:
Edge = (0.70 × 2.5) - 1 = 0.75
Bet = $10 × 0.25 × 0.75 = $1.88
The Quarter Kelly (0.25) is used for conservative bankroll management, providing significant downside protection while still allowing for growth. This strategy focuses on NBA underdogs (odds ≥ 2.25) based on historical 100% win rate.
Select which sports the betting system should analyze for betting opportunities.