| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 17 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Strategy | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04.Apr 04:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | Ascot (AUS) 4th Ap... | Holler Nuff | 1.80 | SKIP | TRACK |
| 04.Apr 00:14* | Sportsbet | Mark Wise | Alannah Mactiernan... | Best Of The Gods | 7.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 00:14* | Sportsbet | Mark Wise | RNone None | Wineaclocksumwhere | 2.80 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 17:26* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Ascot R5 | Maestra | 3.80 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 17:26* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Ascot R2 | Midnight Star | 1.55 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 17:26* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Ascot R1 | Spicy Thang | 1.75 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 17:26* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Ascot R4 | Bonjoy | 2.30 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 17:26* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Ascot R3 | Lipstick Jungle | 3.30 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 15:14* | Sportsbet | Mark Wise | Dongara Swan Draug... | Becalotti | 4.20 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 15:14* | Sportsbet | Mark Wise | Lambron Contractin... | Truly Supreme | 4.80 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 13:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | RNone None | Holler Nuff | 1.80 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 13:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | Perth Stakes R7 | Beatty | 2.20 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 12:08* | SEN | Campbell Brown | Mt Isa R5 | Pennypacker | 3.40 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:38* | SEN | Matt Reid | Launceston R9 | It's Jagger Time | 4.20 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Yamashita's Gold | 4.20 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Written Story | 4.20 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | La Divina | 2.30 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Bohemian Angel | 1.95 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Didn't Miss Many | 1.90 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Logam | 2.35 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Mr Crafty | 2.25 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Hotspur Reale | 2.30 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sportsbet Mount Is... | Han Dynasty | 5.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sportsbet Mount Is... | Affirmative Light | 3.70 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sportsbet Mount Is... | Vonk | 2.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sportsbet Mount Is... | Zouhope | 3.70 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sportsbet Mount Is... | Polly Hoffa | 4.20 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sportsbet Mount Is... | Invinciboo | 1.30 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sportsbet Mount Is... | Zavaboom | 2.35 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 03.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Ballynacally | 5.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 7W-17L | P/L: +$2.18
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Apr 20:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CRANBOURNE R7 1200m Hcap | 7. Electric Star | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 20:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CRANBOURNE R7 1200m Hcap | 6. Billund | 9.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$8.20 |
| 03 Apr 19:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | KALGOORLIE R6 1200m Hcap | 4. On Just Terms | 9.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 18:05 | BF | Darren McAullay | MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HAN... | Starating | 5.70 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 03 Apr 18:05 | BF | Rylie Morgan | DRUMMOND GOLF MAIDEN | Free To Fly | 3.60 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 03 Apr 17:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HAN... | Starating | 5.70 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 03 Apr 17:35 | BF | Darren McAullay | GLENROY CHAFF MAIDEN | Octothorpe | 5.30 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 03 Apr 17:35 | BF | Darren McAullay | DRUMMOND GOLF MAIDEN | Free To Fly | 3.80 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 03 Apr 16:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | KALGOORLIE R2 1100m Hcap | 2. Treasured Queen | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 16:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CRANBOURNE R8 1300m Hcap | 1. Hot Chips | 8.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$7.00 |
| 03 Apr 16:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CRANBOURNE R2 1600m Hcap | 7. On Broadway | 4.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.20 |
| 03 Apr 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | LAUNCESTON R1 1100m 2yo | 2. Fierce Spirit | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 12:36 | BF | Campbell Brown | Ascot (AUS) 3rd Apr | Lipstick Jungle | 3.40 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 03 Apr 12:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | LAUNCESTON R1 1100m 2yo | 3. Zalau | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 12:05 | BF | Travis Noonan | Ascot (AUS) 3rd Apr | Bonjoy | 2.80 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 03 Apr 11:36 | BF | Nick Noonan | Happy Easter from the Tas... | Georgaroni | 3.10 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.10 |
| 03 Apr 11:36 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ladbrokes Hosted Pots Cla... | Beneficiary | 1.62 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 11:36 | BF | Nick Noonan | Kevin Sharkie ALFA Bowl 1... | Zewinna | 1.51 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 11:36 | BF | Nick Noonan | $25 Pot & Parmi Special 1... | Bewicked | 2.26 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 11:36 | BF | Nick Noonan | Harvey Norman Smeg Raffle... | California Flyer | 2.64 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.64 |
| 03 Apr 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Night Racing Grand Finale... | Merlin Beach | 1.74 | $1.00 | WON | +$0.74 |
| 03 Apr 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ladbrokes Big Bets Copy N... | Quafftide | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | E (Ted) & Arthur Cox Memo... | Cherokee Dancer | 3.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ladbrokes Owners Promotio... | Material Madam | 4.30 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.30 |
Record: 4W-9L | P/L: -$0.05
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Apr 16:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GEELONG R6 1100m Hcap | 2. Eternal Darkness | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Apr 15:36 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ASCOT R6 2400m Grp 3 | 3. Admire Astra | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Apr 15:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ASCOT R2 1200m 2yo | 7. Divine Mirage | 9.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Apr 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Select & Atlas Event and ... | Hakeba | 3.75 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Apr 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Adelaide Galvanising Indu... | Good Expectations | 2.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Apr 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | BMD Colts, Geldings & Ent... | Rob The Bank | 3.35 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Apr 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Taylors Wines Fillies and... | Lady Memphis | 3.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Apr 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | Coopers Brewery Rating 0-... | Rousing Refrain | 4.60 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.60 |
| 01 Apr 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | BTR Excavations Class Two... | Stokomo | 2.54 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.54 |
| 01 Apr 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | Sportsbet Racing Form Mai... | Thundara | 2.26 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.26 |
| 01 Apr 09:35 | BF | Sam Hyland | Geelong (AUS) 1st Apr | Kokeshi | 9.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Apr 09:35 | BF | Sam Hyland | Balaklava (AUS) 1st Apr | Leliyn | 3.55 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.55 |
| 01 Apr 09:35 | BF | Sam Hyland | Warwick Farm (AUS) 1st Ap... | Rantan | 4.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.Apr 20:45 | SEN | Damian Watson | Cranbourne R8 | Nerola | 6.50 | SKIP | LOST |
| 03.Apr 20:45 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Cranbourne R8 | 1. Hot Chips | 6.30 | WL $1 | WON |
| 03.Apr 20:33 | Sky | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Hobart R6 | Ashante Queen | 1.85 | SKIP | WON |
| 03.Apr 20:18 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R10 | Starating | 4.60 | SKIP | LOST |
| 03.Apr 20:18 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R10 | Starating | 5.00 | CONS $2 | LOST |
| 03.Apr 20:18 | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Ascot R10 | Starating | 5.50 | CONS $2 | LOST |
| 03.Apr 20:10 | SEN | Damian Watson | Cranbourne R7 | Lil Orlov | 6.00 | SKIP | LOST |
| 03.Apr 20:10 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Cranbourne R7 | 6. Billund | 7.46 | WL $1 | WON |
| 03.Apr 20:10 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Cranbourne R7 | 7. Electric Star | 5.51 | WL $1 | LOST |
| 03.Apr 19:43 | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Ascot R9 | Moonwalk | 2.50 | SKIP | WON |
| 03.Apr 19:43 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R9 | Nickelplay | 3.40 | SKIP | LOST |
| 03.Apr 19:43 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R9 | Moonwalk | 2.74 | SKIP | WON |
| 03.Apr 19:35 | SEN | Damian Watson | Cranbourne R6 | Maldini | 4.20 | SKIP | LOST |
| 03.Apr 19:23 | Sky | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Hobart R4 | Resurgent Warrior | 2.80 | SKIP | LOST |
| 03.Apr 19:20 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Kalgoorlie R6 | Marines Cry | 2.05 | SKIP | WON |
| 03.Apr 19:20 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Kalgoorlie R6 | 4. On Just Terms | 6.37 | WL $1 | LOST |
| 03.Apr 19:08 | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Ascot R8 | Order Online | 6.00 | SKIP | LOST |
| 03.Apr 19:08 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R8 | Order Online | 4.70 | SKIP | LOST |
| 03.Apr 19:08 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R8 | Scenic George | 5.00 | SKIP | LOST |
| 03.Apr 18:48 | Sky | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Hobart R3 | Five Star Shark | 2.94 | SKIP | VOID |
| 03.Apr 18:45 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Kalgoorlie R5 | Whatyoutalkinbout | 2.25 | SKIP | LOST |
| 03.Apr 18:33 | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Ascot R7 | Free To Fly | 3.50 | CONS $2 | LOST |
| 03.Apr 18:33 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R7 | Free To Fly | 3.50 | CONS $2 | LOST |
| 03.Apr 18:33 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R7 | Free To Fly | 3.60 | SKIP | LOST |
| 03.Apr 18:13 | Sky | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Hobart R2 | Debt Till We Part | 5.00 | SKIP | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 1120 | 255W-841L | -$149.51 | -13.3% |
Dynamic whitelist (10 tipsters) + consensus detection (9 groups) + tiered staking. No LAY bets. Sources filtered: sky_racing, sportsbet_racing, payload.
| Tipster | P/L | Bets | WR | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Data Scientists | $58.61 | 105 | 28% | 55.8% |
| David Strehlau | $40.69 | 97 | 31% | 41.9% |
| Matt Hill | $23.95 | 63 | 38% | 35.7% |
| John Kelton | $19.90 | 107 | 37% | 18.6% |
| Betfair Rated Model | $19.83 | 93 | 24% | 21.3% |
| Adam Olszanski | $16.92 | 54 | 30% | 31.3% |
| Tony Kneebone | $15.98 | 76 | 32% | 21.0% |
| Sam Hyland | $13.20 | 96 | 29% | 13.8% |
| Nick Noonan | $5.96 | 118 | 29% | 5.0% |
| Ben Asgari | $5.75 | 119 | 28% | 4.8% |
Staking: WL+Consensus=$3 | Consensus=$2 | Whitelist=$1
| Selection | Event | Tips | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free To Fly | DRUMMOND GOLF MAIDEN | 2 | CONS $2 |
| Aqueduct | Hertz BM66 Handicap | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Octothorpe | GLENROY CHAFF MAIDEN | 2 | CONS $2 |
| Bonjoy | Ascot (AUS) 3rd Apr | 2 | CONS $2 |
| Il Patrigno | Sportsbet Up & Comin | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Suntora | AC Accounting Countr | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Lipstick Jungle | Ascot (AUS) 3rd Apr | 2 | CONS $2 |
| Inherently | Green Horse Equine & | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Starating | MORLEY GROWERS MARKE | 2 | CONS $2 |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 10,576 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 29 Mar 14:45 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.959
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.326 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.283 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.253 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.241 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.184 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.123 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.092 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.091 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.084 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.080 |
|
| Form Score | +0.068 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.058 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.053 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.027 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.025 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.023 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.023 |
|
| Recent Form | -0.017 |
|
| Barrier | +0.017 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.002 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.001 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1162 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1579 | 21% | 22% | +2% |
| 25-30% | 785 | 27% | 28% | +0% |
| 30-35% | 2872 | 34% | 28% | -5% |
| 35-40% | 2387 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 731 | 44% | 33% | -11% |
| 50%+ | 958 | 59% | 42% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 38 | BET: 1 | SKIP: 37 | Settled: 34 | Avg EV: +0.01 | Accuracy: 64.7% | Brier: 0.203 vs Mkt 0.164 (-0.039)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Apr 16:01 | Greg Hooper | Holler Nuff | 1.80 | -0.51 | -28.4% | SB | Horse | 27.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 04 Apr 15:55 | Jared Timms | NO BF Joliestar | - | -0.18 | -9.2% | LB | Horse | 40.8% | SKIP | pending | |
| 04 Apr 15:55 | Jared Timms | NO BF Joliestar | - | -0.18 | -9.2% | LB | Horse | 40.8% | SKIP | pending | |
| 04 Apr 15:55 | Jared Timms | NO BF Joliestar | - | -0.18 | -9.2% | LB | Horse | 40.8% | SKIP | pending | |
| 03 Apr 20:45 | Betfair Rated Model | 1. Hot Chips | 6.30 | +0.32 | +5.1% | BF | Horse | 21.0% | SKIP | WON +$6.61 | |
| 03 Apr 20:45 | Damian Watson | Nerola | 6.50 | +0.37 | +5.7% | SEN | Horse | 21.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 20:33 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Ashante Queen | 1.85 | -0.51 | -27.5% | Sky | Harness | 26.6% | SKIP | WON +$0.85 | |
| 03 Apr 20:18 | Rylie Morgan | Starating | 5.00 | +0.39 | +7.8% | RC | Horse | 27.8% | SKIP | LOST -$2.00 | |
| 03 Apr 20:18 | Darren McAullay | Starating | 5.50 | +0.45 | +8.3% | RC | Horse | 26.5% | SKIP | LOST -$2.00 | |
| 03 Apr 20:18 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Starating | 4.60 | +0.45 | +9.7% | Sky | Horse | 31.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 20:10 | Damian Watson | Lil Orlov | 6.00 | +0.22 | +3.6% | SEN | Horse | 20.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 20:10 | Betfair Rated Model | 7. Electric Star | 5.51 | +0.20 | +3.6% | BF | Horse | 21.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 20:10 | Betfair Rated Model | 6. Billund | 7.46 | +0.39 | +5.2% | BF | Horse | 18.6% | SKIP | WON +$8.80 | |
| 03 Apr 19:43 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Moonwalk | 2.74 | +0.00 | +0.1% | Sky | Horse | 36.6% | SKIP | WON +$1.74 | |
| 03 Apr 19:43 | Rylie Morgan | Nickelplay | 3.40 | -0.26 | -7.5% | RC | Horse | 21.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 19:43 | Darren McAullay | Moonwalk | 2.50 | -0.28 | -11.3% | RC | Horse | 28.7% | SKIP | WON +$1.50 | |
| 03 Apr 19:35 | Damian Watson | Maldini | 4.20 | -0.14 | -3.4% | SEN | Horse | 20.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 19:23 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Resurgent Warrior | 2.80 | -0.26 | -9.4% | Sky | Harness | 26.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 19:20 | Betfair Rated Model | 4. On Just Terms | 6.37 | +0.73 | +11.4% | BF | Horse | 27.1% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 19:20 | Rylie Morgan | Marines Cry | 2.05 | -0.25 | -12.4% | RC | Horse | 36.3% | SKIP | WON +$1.05 | |
| 03 Apr 19:15 | Betfair AFL Model | Adelaide | 1.66 | -0.31 | -18.9% | BET | Other | 41.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 19:08 | Rylie Morgan | Scenic George | 5.00 | -0.10 | -2.0% | RC | Horse | 18.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 19:08 | Darren McAullay | Order Online | 6.00 | +0.25 | +4.2% | RC | Horse | 20.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 19:08 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Order Online | 4.70 | +0.24 | +5.1% | Sky | Horse | 26.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 18:48 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Five Star Shark | 2.94 | -0.43 | -14.8% | Sky | Harness | 19.2% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 03 Apr 18:45 | Rylie Morgan | Whatyoutalkinbout | 2.25 | +0.01 | +0.2% | RC | Horse | 44.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 18:33 | Darren McAullay | Free To Fly | 3.50 | +0.31 | +8.9% | RC | Horse | 37.5% | SKIP | LOST -$2.00 | |
| 03 Apr 18:33 | Rylie Morgan | Free To Fly | 3.50 | +0.42 | +12.1% | RC | Horse | 40.7% | SKIP | LOST -$2.00 | |
| 03 Apr 18:33 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Free To Fly | 3.60 | -0.15 | -4.3% | Sky | Horse | 23.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 18:13 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Debt Till We Part | 5.00 | +0.18 | +3.6% | Sky | Harness | 23.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 18:10 | Rylie Morgan | Chipilly | 2.60 | +0.11 | +4.3% | RC | Horse | 42.8% | SKIP | WON +$1.60 | |
| 03 Apr 17:57 | Darren McAullay | Octothorpe | 4.60 | +0.03 | +0.6% | RC | Horse | 22.3% | SKIP | LOST -$2.00 | |
| 03 Apr 17:57 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Octothorpe | 4.30 | +0.02 | +0.5% | Sky | Horse | 23.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 17:57 | Rylie Morgan | Octothorpe | 4.60 | +0.03 | +0.7% | RC | Horse | 22.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 03 Apr 17:45 | Nick Noonan | Georgaroni | 3.00 | -0.28 | -9.3% | RC | Horse | 24.1% | SKIP | WON +$2.30 | |
| 03 Apr 17:39 | Rylie Morgan | Nistirith | 1.55 | -0.12 | -7.8% | RC | Horse | 56.7% | SKIP | WON +$0.55 | |
| 03 Apr 17:37 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Shes Allaboutluv | 1.85 | -0.43 | -23.3% | Sky | Harness | 30.7% | SKIP | WON +$0.85 | |
| 03 Apr 17:35 | Chris Camilleri | NO BF Cruizingthestars | - | -0.06 | -2.1% | RC | Horse | 33.9% | SKIP | WON +$1.00 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |