+$43.41
Total P/L
| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 15 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.Mar 15:05* | Betfair Model | Betfair AFL Model | GWS v St Kilda | GWS | 1.50 | - | TRACK |
| 17.Mar 15:05* | Betfair Model | Betfair AFL Model | Adelaide v Western... | Western Bulldogs | 1.88 | - | TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Terang R6 | Tangoette | 2.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Terang R5 | Regal Ascend | 3.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Terang R2 | What A Cross | 3.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Terang R4 | Skydream | 3.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Terang R5 | License To Excite | 3.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Terang R3 | Cisco | 3.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Terang R3 | Cisco | 3.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Terang R8 | Kastun Star | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Terang R2 | Quick Qudos | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Terang R1 | Which Floor | 1.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Terang R7 | Dobkins | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Terang R8 | Kastun Star | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Terang R1 | Which Floor | 1.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Terang R6 | Tangoette | 2.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Terang R4 | Skydream | 3.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Terang R7 | Ville De Lumiere | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 11:08* | SEN | Peter Anthonisz | Hawkesbury R6 | So D'oro | 2.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 09:14* | Sportsbet | Brendan Tupper | Same Race Multi R6 | Sparkling Luck | 6.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 09:14* | Sportsbet | Brendan Tupper | Quayclean R7 | Mrs Iglesia | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 09:14* | Sportsbet | Andre Kassay | Peterborough Plate... | Break The Taboo | 11.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | RNone None | Shirvington | 4.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Gosford Air R6 | Caesar | 2.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | ALBION PARK R9 | Queen Lilibet | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | ALBION PARK R8 | Cotchinellie | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | MENANGLE R8 | Oakie Smokeshow | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | MENANGLE R7 | Browniesatmidnight | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | ALBION PARK R5 | Lets Go Bailey | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 17.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | MENANGLE R6 | Rivera Lou | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 0W-4L | P/L: -$4.00
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar 16:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Moree (AUS) 17th Mar | Claudio | 8.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 17 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | HAPPY BIRTHDAY ALI ARNDT ... | Shadow Of Light | 6.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 17 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | PIONEER SERVICES BENCHMAR... | Smart Cry | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 17 Mar 10:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Terang (AUS) 17th Mar | Break The Taboo | 8.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 3W-11L | P/L: -$2.22
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar 16:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | PORT MACQUARIE R5 1500m C... | 6. Surpasser | 9.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 16 Mar 14:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | NOWRA R1 1400m Mdn | 6. Beauty Birdie | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 16 Mar 12:05 | BF | Amanda Rando | Bankstown (AUS) 16th Mar | Fe Fe On Fire | 5.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 16 Mar 12:05 | BF | Amanda Rando | Bankstown (AUS) 16th Mar | Stellina | 8.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 16 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | HANLON WINDOWS MAIDEN HAN... | Anyone | 5.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$4.00 |
| 16 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | SUSSEX INLET RSL CLUB MAI... | Pombia | 7.60 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 16 Mar 08:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Port Macquarie (AUS) 16th... | Fashion Spree | 8.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 16 Mar 06:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Nowra (AUS) 16th Mar | Prince Harrison | 8.00 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 15 Mar 12:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Grafton (AUS) 15th Mar | Mr Plume | 3.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 15 Mar 11:36 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 15th Mar | Boom Bunny | 3.75 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 15 Mar 11:36 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 15th Mar | Golden Octavian | 4.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 15 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | RAY WHITE YAMBA BENCHMARK... | Mr Plume | 3.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 15 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | LADBROKES PUNTER ASSIST B... | Kobayastar | 3.55 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 15 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | YAMBA GOLF & COUNTRY CLUB... | Pressalong | 4.10 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.10 |
| 15 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | FITTED GOLF 2YO MAIDEN PL... | Ashkirk | 5.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 15 Mar 11:35 | BF | Miles Pfitzner | Yarra Valley (AUS) 15th M... | Sonic Bender | 2.68 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.68 |
| 15 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 15th Mar | Ellis Beach | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.Mar 18:20 | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Kilcoy R7 | Silent Fox | 2.25 | SKIP 28% | LOST |
| 17.Mar 18:20 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Kilcoy R7 | Silent Fox | 2.25 | SKIP 29% | LOST |
| 17.Mar 17:40 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Kilcoy R6 | Blueprint | 4.00 | SKIP 23% | LOST |
| 17.Mar 17:40 | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Kilcoy R6 | Michifuku | 13.00 | SKIP 20% | WON |
| 17.Mar 17:40 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Kilcoy R6 | 6. Parisienne Piper | 3.86 | SKIP 26% | LOST |
| 17.Mar 17:30 | Racing Com | Harry White | Hawkesbury R7 | Il Passero | 2.15 | SKIP 28% | WON |
| 17.Mar 17:20 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Terang R8 | 4. Kastun Star | 4.95 | SKIP 22% | LOST |
| 17.Mar 17:15 | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Missen | Moree R7 | Claudio | 6.60 | - | LOST |
| 17.Mar 17:04 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Kilcoy R5 | Clearly George | 4.00 | - | WON |
| 17.Mar 17:04 | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Kilcoy R5 | Clearly George | 4.00 | - | WON |
| 17.Mar 16:30 | SEN | Peter Anthonisz | Terang R7 | Ville De Lumiere | 4.00 | - | LOST |
| 17.Mar 10:14* | Sportsbet | Andre Kassay | Terang R7 | Break The Taboo | 10.00 | - | LOST |
| 17.Mar 08:14* | Sportsbet | Scott McDonell | Kilcoy R6 | Battlespace | 4.80 | SKIP 26% | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 934 | 218W-694L | -$169.55 | -18.2% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 9,266 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 15 Mar 23:21 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.932
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.348 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.290 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.257 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.238 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.174 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.114 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.112 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.105 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.082 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.073 |
|
| Form Score | +0.054 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.050 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.039 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.039 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.034 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.034 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.022 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.021 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.019 |
|
| Barrier | +0.011 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.007 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1161 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1049 | 20% | 23% | +3% |
| 25-30% | 472 | 27% | 29% | +1% |
| 30-35% | 2692 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2279 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 624 | 44% | 32% | -12% |
| 50%+ | 901 | 60% | 43% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 8 | BET: 0 | SKIP: 8 | Settled: 8 | Avg EV: +0.09 | Accuracy: 75.0% | Brier: 0.194 vs Mkt 0.218 (+0.025)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar 18:20 | Rebecca Hill | Silent Fox | 2.25 | -0.35 | -15.6% | RC | Horse | 28.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 17 Mar 18:20 | Chris Nelson | Silent Fox | 2.25 | -0.37 | -16.5% | RC | Horse | 28.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 17 Mar 17:40 | Chris Nelson | Michifuku | 13.00 | +1.60 | +12.3% | RC | Horse | 20.0% | SKIP | WON +$12.00 | |
| 17 Mar 17:40 | Rebecca Hill | Blueprint | 4.00 | -0.06 | -1.5% | RC | Horse | 23.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 17 Mar 17:40 | Betfair Rated Model | 6. Parisienne Piper | 3.86 | +0.00 | +0.0% | BF | Horse | 25.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 17 Mar 17:40 | Scott McDonell | Battlespace | 4.80 | +0.23 | +4.7% | SB | Horse | 25.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 17 Mar 17:30 | Harry White | Il Passero | 2.15 | -0.39 | -18.1% | RC | Horse | 28.4% | SKIP | WON +$1.15 | |
| 17 Mar 17:20 | Betfair Rated Model | 4. Kastun Star | 4.95 | +0.09 | +1.9% | BF | Horse | 22.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |