+$43.41
Total P/L
| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 17 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.Mar 04:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Newcastle R4 | Are You Kidding | 1.70 | SKIP 25% | TRACK |
| 23.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Andre Kassay | Manhari R7 | Just Remember It | 4.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 23.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Andre Kassay | Manhari Mdn Plate ... | Irreverent | 2.45 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 12:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | PINJARRA R8 | Can't Catch Me | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 15:14* | Sportsbet | Julie Rowland | Squib Group R4 | Allinthetiming | 3.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R8 | Think Quick | 10.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R2 | Blue Lupin | 9.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R1 | Lord Arcadia | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R6 | Dancewithme | 2.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R10 | Seindeel | 2.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R3 | Quokka Rocka | 11.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R7 | Split The Gee | 3.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R9 | Royal Law | 7.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R5 | Wheely | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R4 | King Brew | 2.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R6 | Cheval Chic | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R3 | Missile One | 2.35 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R1 | Worththeadmission | 2.45 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R2 | Clive's Glory | 1.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R4 | Spies On | 1.45 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R8 | Monastery | 8.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R7 | Star Venture | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R5 | Ritualize | 3.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Naval Force | 4.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Il Cielo | 3.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Holding Captive | 2.35 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Warrego | 4.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | O'mosa | 4.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Docinthe | 8.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Royal Optimism | 2.15 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 0W-3L | P/L: -$3.00
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | TAUHERENIKAU R3 1600m 3yo | 8. I Love Lucy | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 22 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | Squib Group Benchmark 66 ... | Lonely One | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 22 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | TAMBURLAINE ORGANIC WINE ... | Kirk | 7.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 0W-21L | P/L: -$21.00
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 16:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | DALBY R6 1200m Hcap | 3. Purezza | 8.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 15:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | QUEANBEYAN R4 1460m Mdn | 6. Closethedoordarcy | 8.00 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 21 Mar 14:05 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Orbit Logistics Don Casbo... | Bassett Babe | 4.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 12:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Caulfield (AUS) 21st Mar | Tropicus | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:36 | BF | David Strehlau | Orbit Logistics Don Casbo... | Bassett Babe | 4.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | JOHN COLE RETIREMENT CG&E... | Chokuto | 4.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | ETHOS ORTHODONTICS BENCHM... | Weigall Tiger | 7.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | PITCHER PARTNERS BENCHMAR... | Rhapsody Chic | 9.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:35 | BF | Matt Hill | Ladbrokes William Reid St... | Angel Capital | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | VECCHIO PROPERTY GROUP BE... | Smexy | 6.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:05 | BF | Chris Nelson | Eagle Farm (AUS) 21st Mar | Vivika | 6.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 09:35 | BF | Heath Pope | Morphettville (AUS) 21st ... | Cinque Torri | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 09:35 | BF | Travis Noonan | Rosehill (AUS) 21st Mar | Warwoven | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 09:05 | BF | Travis Noonan | Caulfield (AUS) 21st Mar | Angel Capital | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 14:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SCONE R2 1400m Hcap | 2. Hammoon Sensation | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ladbrokes Spring Hosted P... | Designer Dreamer | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | CARLTON DRAUGHT SHOWCASE ... | Marty Mcfly | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | ADRIAN LEDGER MEMORIAL SH... | Untethered | 4.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | BARRIER REEF POOLS Fillie... | She Moves Too | 3.35 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 09:35 | BF | Matt Reid | Launceston (AUS) 20th Mar | Earendel | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 09:05 | BF | Sam Hyland | Albury (AUS) 20th Mar | Sargeant Stan | 5.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 09:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Scone (AUS) 20th Mar | Zucchero | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.Mar 21:15 | Sky | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Launceston R9 | Mary Mourne | 1.60 | SKIP 28% | WON |
| 22.Mar 20:47 | Sky | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Launceston R8 | My Bettor Half | 1.40 | SKIP 25% | WON |
| 22.Mar 20:40 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Pinjarra R10 | 8. Mangifera | 4.46 | SKIP 22% | LOST |
| 22.Mar 20:40 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R10 | Seindeel | 2.42 | SKIP 24% | LOST |
| 22.Mar 20:12 | Sky | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Launceston R7 | Keayang Lexi | 1.95 | SKIP 26% | LOST |
| 22.Mar 20:04* | Betfair Model | Betfair AFL Model | West Coast v North... | North Melbourne | 1.71 | SKIP 42% | LOST |
| 22.Mar 20:01 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R9 | Rocking Society | 13.50 | SKIP 18% | LOST |
| 22.Mar 19:40 | Sky | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Launceston R6 | Horatius Speculo | 2.10 | SKIP 24% | WON |
| 22.Mar 19:11 | Sky | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Launceston R5 | Lougle | 1.40 | SKIP 31% | WON |
| 22.Mar 18:50 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R7 | Think Pink Daze | 2.66 | SKIP 36% | LOST |
| 22.Mar 18:42 | Sky | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Launceston R4 | Pardoe Plugga | 3.35 | SKIP 26% | LOST |
| 22.Mar 18:20 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R6 | Dancewithme | 2.94 | SKIP 28% | LOST |
| 22.Mar 18:12 | Sky | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Launceston R3 | Dancinwivjolene | 3.85 | SKIP 24% | LOST |
| 22.Mar 17:50 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R5 | Wheely | 2.66 | SKIP 22% | WON |
| 22.Mar 17:45 | Racing Com | John Kelton | Mount Gambier R8 | Bancoora | 6.00 | SKIP 19% | LOST |
| 22.Mar 17:34 | Sky | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Launceston R2 | King Bart | 3.25 | SKIP 21% | WON |
| 22.Mar 17:20 | Sky | Sky Racing - Ben Walker | Orange R7 | Midnight Luna | 6.80 | SKIP 20% | LOST |
| 22.Mar 17:20 | Racing Com | Chris Camilleri | Orange R7 | Western Warrior | 4.40 | SKIP 23% | LOST |
| 22.Mar 17:15 | SEN | David Taggart | Bairnsdale R8 | Druthers | 1.90 | - | LOST |
| 22.Mar 17:10 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Pinjarra R4 | 5. Batista | 4.35 | - | LOST |
| 22.Mar 17:10 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R4 | King Brew | 1.96 | - | WON |
| 22.Mar 17:05 | Racing Com | John Kelton | Mount Gambier R7 | Bare To Witness | 4.00 | - | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 973 | 219W-730L | -$188.01 | -19.3% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 9,665 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 15 Mar 23:21 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.932
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.348 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.290 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.257 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.238 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.174 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.114 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.112 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.105 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.082 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.073 |
|
| Form Score | +0.054 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.050 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.039 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.039 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.034 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.034 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.022 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.021 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.019 |
|
| Barrier | +0.011 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.007 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1161 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1239 | 21% | 22% | +1% |
| 25-30% | 557 | 27% | 28% | +0% |
| 30-35% | 2740 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2318 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 653 | 44% | 33% | -11% |
| 50%+ | 921 | 60% | 42% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 19 | BET: 0 | SKIP: 19 | Settled: 18 | Avg EV: -0.17 | Accuracy: 66.7% | Brier: 0.235 vs Mkt 0.155 (-0.079)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Mar 15:50 | Shayne Montgomery | Are You Kidding | 1.70 | -0.57 | -33.4% | SB | Horse | 25.4% | SKIP | pending | |
| 22 Mar 21:15 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Mary Mourne | 1.60 | -0.55 | -34.4% | Sky | Harness | 28.1% | SKIP | WON +$0.60 | |
| 22 Mar 20:47 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | My Bettor Half | 1.40 | -0.65 | -46.8% | Sky | Harness | 24.6% | SKIP | WON +$0.40 | |
| 22 Mar 20:40 | Betfair Rated Model | 8. Mangifera | 4.46 | -0.04 | -0.9% | BF | Horse | 21.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 22 Mar 20:40 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Seindeel | 2.42 | -0.41 | -17.1% | Sky | Horse | 24.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 22 Mar 20:12 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Keayang Lexi | 1.95 | -0.50 | -25.5% | Sky | Harness | 25.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 22 Mar 20:01 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Rocking Society | 13.50 | +1.44 | +10.7% | Sky | Horse | 18.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 22 Mar 19:40 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Horatius Speculo | 2.10 | -0.50 | -24.0% | Sky | Harness | 23.6% | SKIP | WON +$1.10 | |
| 22 Mar 19:11 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Lougle | 1.40 | -0.56 | -40.3% | Sky | Harness | 31.1% | SKIP | WON +$0.40 | |
| 22 Mar 18:50 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Think Pink Daze | 2.66 | -0.04 | -1.6% | Sky | Horse | 36.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 22 Mar 18:42 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Pardoe Plugga | 3.35 | -0.13 | -4.0% | Sky | Harness | 25.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 22 Mar 18:20 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Dancewithme | 2.94 | -0.18 | -6.1% | Sky | Horse | 28.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 22 Mar 18:12 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Dancinwivjolene | 3.85 | -0.09 | -2.4% | Sky | Harness | 23.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 22 Mar 18:10 | Betfair AFL Model | North Melbourne | 1.71 | -0.28 | -16.1% | BET | Other | 42.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 22 Mar 17:50 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Wheely | 2.66 | -0.42 | -15.7% | Sky | Horse | 21.9% | SKIP | WON +$1.66 | |
| 22 Mar 17:45 | John Kelton | Bancoora | 6.00 | +0.15 | +2.5% | RC | Horse | 19.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 22 Mar 17:34 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | King Bart | 3.25 | -0.32 | -9.8% | Sky | Harness | 20.9% | SKIP | WON +$2.25 | |
| 22 Mar 17:20 | Chris Camilleri | Western Warrior | 4.40 | +0.03 | +0.7% | RC | Horse | 23.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 22 Mar 17:20 | Sky Racing - Ben Walker | Midnight Luna | 6.80 | +0.39 | +5.7% | Sky | Horse | 20.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |