+$43.41
Total P/L
| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 19 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Strategy | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05.Apr 00:14* | Sportsbet | Andre Kassay | More Places R8 | Cherish Me | 8.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Apr 00:14* | Sportsbet | Andre Kassay | Quayclean R5 | Vangogh Bankcheque | 2.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 19:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Stawell R8 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 19:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Stawell R8 | Winter Nights | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 19:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Stawell R6 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 19:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Stawell R6 | Luigi The Brave | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 19:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Stawell R5 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 19:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Stawell R5 | Yukaina | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 19:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Stawell R3 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 19:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Stawell R3 | Join The Que | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 13:26* | Racing Com | Ben Sporle | Balnarring R4 | Bookman | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 13:26* | Racing Com | Ben Sporle | Balnarring R2 | Deep Core | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 13:26* | Racing Com | Ben Sporle | Balnarring R6 | Da Deputy | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 13:26* | Racing Com | Ben Sporle | Balnarring R5 | Bay Of Joy | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 13:26* | Racing Com | Ben Sporle | Balnarring R1 | Stirrup | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 13:26* | Racing Com | Ben Sporle | Balnarring R3 | Nic Says No | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 11:40* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Ballarat R6 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 11:40* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Ballarat R6 | Suntora | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 11:40* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Ballarat R5 | A Diva | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 11:40* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Ballarat R3 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 11:40* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Ballarat R3 | Southern Crescent | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 11:40* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Ballarat R1 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 11:40* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Ballarat R1 | Oyster Lane | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 11:40* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Randwick R9 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 11:40* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Randwick R8 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 11:40* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Randwick R7 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 11:40* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Randwick R6 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | ben.sporle@outlook.com | Balnarring R4 | Bookman | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | ben.sporle@outlook.com | Balnarring R2 | Deep Core | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | ben.sporle@outlook.com | Balnarring R6 | Da Deputy | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 12W-39L | P/L: +$19.22
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Apr 18:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | DONGARA R4 1100m Hcap | 3. Lova Session | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 17:06 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ASCOT R5 2200m Hcap | 5. Fey King | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 16:36 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ALICE SPRINGS R6 1400m Hc... | 4. Standard Street | 8.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 15:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | WARRACKNABEAL R6 2000m Hc... | 9. Convo | 3.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 15:05 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Noel Rundle Handicap | Gold Medallist | 3.15 | $3.00 | LOST | -$3.00 |
| 04 Apr 14:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CLARE R2 1100m Mdn | 6. Starcho Libre | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 13:36 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CLARE R1 1200m Hcap | 3. Raymonds Reward | 6.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 13:36 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | WYONG R2 1000m Mdn | 2. Dingle Grey | 5.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$4.40 |
| 04 Apr 13:06 | BF | Ben Asgari | Stow Storage Bill Collins... | Thebelmontgangster | 2.00 | $3.00 | LOST | -$3.00 |
| 04 Apr 13:06 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Tobin Brothers Celebratin... | Ambassadorial | 4.50 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.50 |
| 04 Apr 13:06 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Bert Bryant Handicap | Kurakka | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 13:06 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Sportsbet Victoria Handic... | Persian Spirit | 4.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 13:06 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Bert Bryant Handicap | Pantile Warrior | 2.72 | $3.00 | LOST | -$3.00 |
| 04 Apr 12:36 | BF | David Strehlau | Jack Elliott Handicap | Extragalactic | 4.30 | $3.00 | WON | +$9.90 |
| 04 Apr 12:36 | BF | Ben Asgari | Tobin Brothers Celebratin... | Paltrow Miss | 4.40 | $3.00 | LOST | -$3.00 |
| 04 Apr 12:36 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Stow Storage Bill Collins... | Thebelmontgangster | 1.99 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 04 Apr 12:36 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Elvis Thurgood Memorial | Terilee | 2.32 | $2.00 | WON | +$2.64 |
| 04 Apr 12:36 | BF | David Strehlau | Bert Bryant Handicap | Pantile Warrior | 2.86 | $3.00 | LOST | -$3.00 |
| 04 Apr 12:06 | BF | Matt Hill | Evergreen Turf Geoff Murp... | Rue De Royale | 6.60 | $3.00 | WON | +$16.80 |
| 04 Apr 12:06 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Noel Rundle Handicap | Everain | 7.60 | $2.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 04 Apr 12:06 | BF | David Strehlau | Sportsbet Victoria Handic... | Here to Shock | 5.90 | $3.00 | LOST | -$3.00 |
| 04 Apr 12:06 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Tobin Brothers Celebratin... | Paltrow Miss | 4.50 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 04 Apr 12:06 | BF | Ben Asgari | Jack Elliott Handicap | Extragalactic | 4.70 | $3.00 | WON | +$11.10 |
| 04 Apr 12:06 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | OAKBANK R3 1050m 3yo | 4. Uptown Monk | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 12:06 | BF | Ben Asgari | Robert Taranto Handicap | Engine Of War | 5.80 | $3.00 | LOST | -$3.00 |
| 04 Apr 12:06 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | TUNCURRY R2 1505m Mdn | 9. Its Ok | 9.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 12:06 | BF | Ben Asgari | Elvis Thurgood Memorial | Terilee | 2.28 | $3.00 | WON | +$3.84 |
| 04 Apr 12:06 | BF | Matt Hill | Bert Bryant Handicap | Pantile Warrior | 2.82 | $3.00 | LOST | -$3.00 |
| 04 Apr 12:05 | BF | David Strehlau | Stow Storage Bill Collins... | Thebelmontgangster | 1.98 | $3.00 | LOST | -$3.00 |
| 04 Apr 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | RANDWICK R8 1600m Grp1 | 7. Autumn Boy | 8.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Evergreen Turf Geoff Murp... | Rue De Royale | 6.60 | $2.00 | WON | +$11.20 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | Ben Asgari | Sportsbet Victoria Handic... | Cafe Millenium | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | Matt Hill | Tobin Brothers Celebratin... | Sea What I See | 6.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | David Strehlau | Noel Rundle Handicap | Just Cruisin' | 9.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Tobin Brothers Celebratin... | Paltrow Miss | 4.60 | $3.00 | LOST | -$3.00 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | Matt Hill | Tobin Brothers Celebratin... | Miss Revealing | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | Matt Hill | Jack Elliott Handicap | Extragalactic | 4.70 | $3.00 | WON | +$11.10 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | David Strehlau | Robert Taranto Handicap | Engine Of War | 5.50 | $3.00 | LOST | -$3.00 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | David Strehlau | Tobin Brothers Celebratin... | Kings Valley | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Elvis Thurgood Memorial | Chiringita | 6.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | Matt Hill | Noel Rundle Handicap | Gold Medallist | 3.25 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Sportsbet Victoria Handic... | Here to Shock | 5.60 | $3.00 | LOST | -$3.00 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | David Strehlau | Elvis Thurgood Memorial | Terilee | 2.28 | $3.00 | WON | +$3.84 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Stow Storage Bill Collins... | Hot Digity Boom | 7.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Noel Rundle Handicap | Everain | 7.60 | $3.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | Ben Asgari | Bert Bryant Handicap | Pantile Warrior | 2.76 | $3.00 | LOST | -$3.00 |
| 04 Apr 11:36 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Robert Taranto Handicap | Mukhtalif | 4.50 | $2.00 | WON | +$7.00 |
| 04 Apr 11:35 | BF | Matt Hill | Stow Storage Bill Collins... | Thebelmontgangster | 1.97 | $3.00 | LOST | -$3.00 |
| 04 Apr 09:06 | BF | Nick Noonan | Caulfield (AUS) 4th Apr | Gold Medallist | 3.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 09:06 | BF | Nick Noonan | Caulfield (AUS) 4th Apr | Kings Valley | 8.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 09:06 | BF | Nick Noonan | Randwick (AUS) 4th Apr | Green Spaces | 3.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.90 |
| 04 Apr 09:05 | BF | Nick Noonan | Randwick (AUS) 4th Apr | Changingoftheguard | 8.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Apr 09:05 | BF | Nick Noonan | Caulfield (AUS) 4th Apr | Duchess Zou | 4.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 7W-17L | P/L: +$2.18
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Apr 20:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CRANBOURNE R7 1200m Hcap | 7. Electric Star | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 20:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CRANBOURNE R7 1200m Hcap | 6. Billund | 9.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$8.20 |
| 03 Apr 19:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | KALGOORLIE R6 1200m Hcap | 4. On Just Terms | 9.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 18:05 | BF | Darren McAullay | MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HAN... | Starating | 5.70 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 03 Apr 18:05 | BF | Rylie Morgan | DRUMMOND GOLF MAIDEN | Free To Fly | 3.60 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 03 Apr 17:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HAN... | Starating | 5.70 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 03 Apr 17:35 | BF | Darren McAullay | GLENROY CHAFF MAIDEN | Octothorpe | 5.30 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 03 Apr 17:35 | BF | Darren McAullay | DRUMMOND GOLF MAIDEN | Free To Fly | 3.80 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 03 Apr 16:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | KALGOORLIE R2 1100m Hcap | 2. Treasured Queen | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 16:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CRANBOURNE R8 1300m Hcap | 1. Hot Chips | 8.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$7.00 |
| 03 Apr 16:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CRANBOURNE R2 1600m Hcap | 7. On Broadway | 4.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.20 |
| 03 Apr 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | LAUNCESTON R1 1100m 2yo | 2. Fierce Spirit | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 12:36 | BF | Campbell Brown | Ascot (AUS) 3rd Apr | Lipstick Jungle | 3.40 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 03 Apr 12:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | LAUNCESTON R1 1100m 2yo | 3. Zalau | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 12:05 | BF | Travis Noonan | Ascot (AUS) 3rd Apr | Bonjoy | 2.80 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 03 Apr 11:36 | BF | Nick Noonan | Happy Easter from the Tas... | Georgaroni | 3.10 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.10 |
| 03 Apr 11:36 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ladbrokes Hosted Pots Cla... | Beneficiary | 1.62 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 11:36 | BF | Nick Noonan | Kevin Sharkie ALFA Bowl 1... | Zewinna | 1.51 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 11:36 | BF | Nick Noonan | $25 Pot & Parmi Special 1... | Bewicked | 2.26 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 11:36 | BF | Nick Noonan | Harvey Norman Smeg Raffle... | California Flyer | 2.64 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.64 |
| 03 Apr 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Night Racing Grand Finale... | Merlin Beach | 1.74 | $1.00 | WON | +$0.74 |
| 03 Apr 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ladbrokes Big Bets Copy N... | Quafftide | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | E (Ted) & Arthur Cox Memo... | Cherokee Dancer | 3.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Apr 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ladbrokes Owners Promotio... | Material Madam | 4.30 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.30 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04.Apr 20:21 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R10 | Cannykev | 3.70 | SKIP | LOST |
| 04.Apr 20:21 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R10 | Cannykev | 4.20 | SKIP | LOST |
| 04.Apr 19:45 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R9 | Smooth Chino | 2.60 | SKIP | LOST |
| 04.Apr 19:45 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R9 | Smooth Chino | 2.84 | SKIP | LOST |
| 04.Apr 19:10 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R8 | Aurum Belle | 1.64 | SKIP | WON |
| 04.Apr 19:10 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R8 | Aurum Belle | 1.65 | SKIP | WON |
| 04.Apr 18:50 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Dongara R4 | 3. Lova Session | 7.74 | WL $1 | LOST |
| 04.Apr 18:35 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R7 | Beatty | 2.15 | SKIP | WON |
| 04.Apr 18:35 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R7 | Beatty | 2.20 | SKIP | WON |
| 04.Apr 18:04 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Eagle Farm R9 | Spanish Treasure | 3.30 | SKIP | LOST |
| 04.Apr 17:59 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R6 | Desert Waves | 2.50 | SKIP | WON |
| 04.Apr 17:59 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R6 | Desert Waves | 2.64 | SKIP | WON |
| 04.Apr 08:14* | Sportsbet | Mark Wise | Dongara R5 | Becalotti | 4.20 | SKIP | VOID |
| 04.Apr 08:14* | Sportsbet | Mark Wise | Dongara R3 | Truly Supreme | 4.80 | SKIP | LOST |
| 04.Apr 06:44* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | Ascot R7 | Beatty | 2.20 | SKIP | WON |
| 31.Mar 16:04* | Betfair Model | Betfair AFL Model | West Coast Eagles ... | Sydney | 1.26 | SKIP | WON |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 1173 | 267W-880L | -$130.29 | -11.1% |
Dynamic whitelist (11 tipsters) + consensus detection (24 groups) + tiered staking. No LAY bets. Sources filtered: sky_racing, sportsbet_racing, payload.
| Tipster | P/L | Bets | WR | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Data Scientists | $58.61 | 105 | 28% | 55.8% |
| Matt Hill | $42.26 | 73 | 37% | 49.7% |
| David Strehlau | $39.43 | 106 | 30% | 33.4% |
| John Kelton | $19.90 | 107 | 37% | 18.6% |
| Ben Asgari | $19.69 | 129 | 28% | 13.8% |
| Adam Olszanski | $16.92 | 54 | 30% | 31.3% |
| Betfair Rated Model | $13.87 | 95 | 22% | 14.6% |
| Sam Hyland | $13.20 | 96 | 29% | 13.8% |
| Brent Zerafa | $9.48 | 121 | 31% | 7.5% |
| Nick Noonan | $4.86 | 123 | 28% | 3.9% |
| Tony Kneebone | $1.98 | 86 | 29% | 2.1% |
Staking: WL+Consensus=$3 | Consensus=$2 | Whitelist=$1
| Selection | Event | Tips | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thebelmontgangster | Stow Storage Bill Co | 4 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Pantile Warrior | Bert Bryant Handicap | 4 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Terilee | Elvis Thurgood Memor | 4 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Engine Of War | Robert Taranto Handi | 3 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Extragalactic | Jack Elliott Handica | 3 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Paltrow Miss | Tobin Brothers Celeb | 3 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Mukhtalif | Robert Taranto Handi | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Bookman | Peninsula InHome Car | 2 | CONS $2 |
| Nic Says No | East Coast Swimming | 2 | CONS $2 |
| Damas | Dale Huebner BM66 Ha | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Chidiac | EVERGREEN TURF COUNT | 2 | CONS $2 |
| Profoundly | TAB ADRIAN KNOX STAK | 2 | CONS $2 |
| Everain | Noel Rundle Handicap | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Immediacy | Tobin Brothers Celeb | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Bay Of Joy | Little Pier Maiden P | 2 | CONS $2 |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 10,744 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 29 Mar 14:45 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.959
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.326 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.283 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.253 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.241 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.184 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.123 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.092 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.091 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.084 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.080 |
|
| Form Score | +0.068 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.058 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.053 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.027 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.025 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.023 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.023 |
|
| Recent Form | -0.017 |
|
| Barrier | +0.017 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.002 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.001 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1162 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1657 | 21% | 22% | +1% |
| 25-30% | 818 | 27% | 28% | +1% |
| 30-35% | 2888 | 34% | 28% | -5% |
| 35-40% | 2398 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 746 | 44% | 34% | -11% |
| 50%+ | 971 | 59% | 42% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 12 | BET: 1 | SKIP: 11 | Settled: 12 | Avg EV: -0.12 | Accuracy: 41.7% | Brier: 0.233 vs Mkt 0.142 (-0.091)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Apr 20:21 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Cannykev | 3.70 | +0.09 | +2.6% | Sky | Horse | 29.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Apr 20:21 | Rylie Morgan | Cannykev | 4.20 | +0.24 | +5.6% | RC | Horse | 29.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Apr 19:45 | Rylie Morgan | Smooth Chino | 2.60 | -0.46 | -17.7% | RC | Horse | 20.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Apr 19:45 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Smooth Chino | 2.84 | -0.32 | -11.3% | Sky | Horse | 23.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Apr 19:35 | Betfair AFL Model | Sydney | 1.26 | -0.41 | -32.3% | BET | Other | 47.0% | SKIP | WON +$0.26 | |
| 04 Apr 19:29 | Mark Wise | Becalotti | 4.20 | -0.04 | -0.9% | SB | Horse | 22.9% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 04 Apr 19:10 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Aurum Belle | 1.64 | -0.31 | -18.9% | Sky | Horse | 42.1% | SKIP | WON +$0.64 | |
| 04 Apr 19:10 | Rylie Morgan | Aurum Belle | 1.65 | -0.59 | -35.7% | RC | Horse | 24.9% | SKIP | WON +$0.65 | |
| 04 Apr 18:50 | Betfair Rated Model | 3. Lova Session | 7.74 | +0.90 | +11.6% | BF | Horse | 24.5% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Apr 18:35 | Rylie Morgan | Beatty | 2.15 | +0.22 | +10.1% | RC | Horse | 56.6% | SKIP | WON +$1.15 | |
| 04 Apr 18:35 | Greg Hooper | Beatty | 2.20 | -0.41 | -18.8% | SB | Horse | 26.7% | SKIP | WON +$1.20 | |
| 04 Apr 18:35 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Beatty | 2.20 | -0.36 | -16.4% | Sky | Horse | 29.0% | SKIP | WON +$1.20 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |