| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 12 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.Mar 03:44* | Sportsbet | Brendan Tupper | Sandown R2 | Balinor | 9.00 | SKIP 6% | TRACK |
| 10.Mar 14:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Ardashir | 7.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Picklebet Park War... | Prince Of Synergy | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Picklebet Park War... | Artifactx | 8.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Picklebet Park War... | Skieda | 2.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Picklebet Park War... | Raiderlicious | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Picklebet Park War... | Cardiologist | 4.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Picklebet Park War... | Chevallum | 2.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Picklebet Park War... | Powerful Eagle | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Harry Met Sally | 3.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Rorkes Drift | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Harry Met Sally | 3.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Royal Optimism | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Joltin' Joe | 11.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Princess Painton | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Warparty | 2.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Manifest The Milli | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Lady Thinkabell | 3.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Manifest The Milli | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Wazing | 1.95 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | High Tempo | 4.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | So Suave | 2.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Wazing | 1.95 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Cardi Bee | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Rorkes Drift | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 10:14* | Sportsbet | Brendan Tupper | Thoroughbred Club ... | Balinor | 9.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 10:14* | Sportsbet | Brendan Tupper | RNone None | Ten Warriors | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Tab R8 | Satirically | 6.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Irresistible Pools... | Compensation | 2.15 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | ALBION PARK R10 | Major Crunch | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 1W-8L | P/L: -$4.10
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar 15:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | WARWICK R3 1350m Mdn | 10. Soloact | 4.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 15:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Warwick (AUS) 10th Mar | Rock The Sunrise | 2.32 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | BALLARAT R1 1200m Mdn | 3. Harry Met Sally | 4.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.90 |
| 10 Mar 12:05 | BF | Harry White | TAB VENUE MODE CLASS 1 & ... | Contaldo | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | CAFÉ NOSH MAIDEN HANDICAP | Prize Witness | 2.78 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | 12 MAY GLOUCESTER CUP BEN... | Myalaby | 6.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Taree (AUS) 10th Mar | Zelestial | 2.32 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 09:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Taree (AUS) 10th Mar | Zelestial | 2.32 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 08:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Taree (AUS) 10th Mar | Ready And Lucky | 2.26 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 12W-14L | P/L: +$16.68
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Mar 14:35 | BF | Luke Hovhanesia... | Cowra (AUS) 9th Mar | Tartan Tiger | 4.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 09 Mar 14:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Du... | Devonport (AUS) 9th Mar | Bright Night | 3.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 09 Mar 14:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Du... | Devonport (AUS) 9th Mar | Hartman | 2.98 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.98 |
| 09 Mar 14:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Co... | Cowra (AUS) 9th Mar | Tartan Tiger | 2.86 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 09 Mar 13:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Cowra (AUS) 9th Mar | Tartan Tiger | 2.86 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 09 Mar 12:05 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Sungold Milk BM66 Handica... | Morgana | 3.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.90 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Standing Tall In Warrnamb... | Off His Roca | 2.88 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.88 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | Rexco Handicap | Just A Brother | 7.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$6.00 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | The Fotobase Group Morphe... | Dirty Old Town | 3.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | Sportsbet More Places Han... | Miss Slipstream | 3.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.20 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | Adam Crettenden | Sungold Milk BM66 Handica... | Morgana | 3.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.90 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | Sportsbet Feed Handicap | Brown Nose Day Gal | 4.10 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.10 |
| 09 Mar 07:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Coffs Harbour (AUS) 9th M... | Kirkall | 2.86 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 12:05 | BF | Adam Olszanski | Danny O’Brien MP 0 - 56 H... | Hey Bella | 2.56 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.56 |
| 08 Mar 12:05 | BF | Clint Hutchison | TAC Rob Meyer 0 - 56 Hand... | Ginger Sweet | 2.56 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 11:35 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Ladbrokes Stony Creek Cup | Regal Lion | 3.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 11:35 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Meeniyan Hotel After Part... | Mr Margolin | 3.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | JTS REALTY SHOWCASE 2YO H... | Drumfire | 4.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.80 |
| 08 Mar 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Echuca (AUS) 8th Mar | Martial Music | 2.56 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.56 |
| 08 Mar 11:35 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Danny O’Brien MP 0 - 56 H... | Hey Bella | 2.56 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.56 |
| 08 Mar 11:35 | BF | Adam Olszanski | TAC Rob Meyer 0 - 56 Hand... | Ginger Sweet | 2.56 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 11:05 | BF | Miles Pfitzner | Canberra (AUS) 8th Mar | Watson | 2.42 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 11:05 | BF | David Taggart | Echuca (AUS) 8th Mar | Justadeel | 2.72 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 11:05 | BF | David Taggart | Echuca (AUS) 8th Mar | Table Twentyeight | 3.55 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 11:05 | BF | Miles Pfitzner | Canberra (AUS) 8th Mar | Travolta | 2.78 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 11:05 | BF | David Taggart | Echuca (AUS) 8th Mar | Baganov | 2.24 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.24 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.Mar 17:50 | Racing Com | Harry White | Taree R7 | Cool Az Aletta | 9.00 | SKIP 7% | LOST |
| 10.Mar 17:50 | Sky | Sky Racing - Belinda Smith | Taree R7 | Cool Az Aletta | 7.40 | SKIP 11% | LOST |
| 10.Mar 17:50 | Sky | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Taree R7 | Ready And Lucky | 2.26 | BET 60% | LOST |
| 10.Mar 17:50 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Taree R7 | 2. Mosgiel Daisy | 6.88 | SKIP 7% | LOST |
| 10.Mar 17:15 | Racing Com | Harry White | Taree R6 | Myalaby | 6.50 | BET 21% | LOST |
| 10.Mar 17:15 | Sky | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Taree R6 | Punch One Out | 1.13 | SKIP 57% | WON |
| 10.Mar 17:15 | Sky | Sky Racing - Belinda Smith | Taree R6 | Punch One Out | 3.60 | SKIP 20% | WON |
| 10.Mar 15:30 | Payload | Glenn Ingram | - | Warparty | - | - | LOST |
| 10.Mar 14:04 | Payload | Betfair Data Scientists | - | Hesaa Lister | - | - | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 818 | 194W-605L | -$140.77 | -17.2% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 8,716 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.01 | Calibration: 5 points | Last Retrain: 09 Mar 18:15 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -1.009
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.566 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.457 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.447 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.397 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.370 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.157 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.147 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.113 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.093 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.089 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.087 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.080 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.025 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.016 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.005 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 926 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 983 | 20% | 23% | +3% |
| 25-30% | 416 | 27% | 29% | +2% |
| 30-35% | 2657 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2251 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 582 | 44% | 32% | -13% |
| 50%+ | 816 | 60% | 43% | -16% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 8 | BET: 2 | SKIP: 6 | Settled: 7 | Avg EV: -0.17 | Accuracy: 42.9% | Brier: 0.178 vs Mkt 0.115 (-0.063)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar 15:40 | Brendan Tupper | Balinor | 9.00 | -0.43 | -4.8% | SB | Horse | 6.3% | SKIP | pending | |
| 10 Mar 17:50 | Harry White | Cool Az Aletta | 9.00 | -0.33 | -3.6% | RC | Horse | 7.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 10 Mar 17:50 | Betfair Rated Model | 2. Mosgiel Daisy | 6.88 | -0.51 | -7.4% | BF | Horse | 7.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 10 Mar 17:50 | Sky Racing - Belinda Smith | Cool Az Aletta | 7.40 | -0.22 | -2.9% | Sky | Horse | 10.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 10 Mar 17:50 | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Ready And Lucky | 2.26 | +0.35 | +15.5% | Sky | Horse | 59.8% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 10 Mar 17:15 | Harry White | Myalaby | 6.50 | +0.37 | +5.7% | RC | Horse | 21.1% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 10 Mar 17:15 | Sky Racing - Belinda Smith | Punch One Out | 3.60 | -0.27 | -7.6% | Sky | Horse | 20.2% | SKIP | WON +$2.60 | |
| 10 Mar 17:15 | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Punch One Out | 1.13 | -0.36 | -31.6% | Sky | Horse | 56.9% | SKIP | WON +$0.13 |
Solid = v4 (Isotonic, threshold 0.20), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3 (Platt), Green = v4/v5 (Isotonic).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.20). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4/v5 decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (v4) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |