| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 12 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07.Mar 12:15 | SEN | David Taggart | Flemington R1 | Vangogh Bankcheque | 3.00 | SKIP 9% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 12:15 | SEN | Travis Noonan | Flemington R1 | Legacy Bound | 2.60 | SKIP 25% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 12:45 | SEN | David Taggart | Flemington R2 | Nervous Witness | 21.00 | SKIP 7% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 12:45 | SEN | Miles Pfitzner | Flemington R2 | Wiggum | 41.00 | - | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 12:57 | SEN | Heath Pope | Murray Bridge R2 | Hysterical Lady | 4.80 | SKIP 7% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 13:20 | SEN | Mick Gannon | Flemington R3 | Medicinal | 2.50 | SKIP 23% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 13:33 | Sky | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Gunnedah R1 | Erniegy | 1.68 | SKIP 61% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 13:40 | SEN | David Taggart | Randwick R3 | Rachini | 7.50 | SKIP 8% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 13:40 | SEN | Mick Gannon | Randwick R3 | Agrarian Girl | 2.70 | BET 48% | BET |
| 07.Mar 13:40 | SEN | Travis Noonan | Randwick R3 | Naadra | 4.80 | SKIP 7% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 13:55 | SEN | David Taggart | Flemington R4 | On Display | 3.80 | SKIP 22% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 14:08 | Sky | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Gunnedah R2 | Tipsy Miss | 2.04 | SKIP 27% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 14:15 | SEN | David Taggart | Randwick R4 | Stretan Ruler | 3.40 | SKIP 27% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 14:15 | SEN | Travis Noonan | Randwick R4 | Paradoxium | 2.60 | SKIP 17% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 14:23 | SEN | Chris Nelson | Eagle Farm R3 | Moonhaven | 2.15 | - | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 14:30 | SEN | Mark Hunter | Flemington R5 | Salty Pearl | 2.80 | SKIP 7% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 14:30 | SEN | Nick Noonan | Flemington R5 | Exit | 15.00 | SKIP 7% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 14:42 | Sky | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Gunnedah R3 | Famahan | 4.10 | SKIP 14% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 14:50 | SEN | Josh Jenkins | Randwick R5 | Beadman | 2.70 | SKIP 7% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 14:50 | SEN | David Taggart | Randwick R5 | Inkaruna | 3.90 | SKIP 24% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 14:54 | SEN | Travis Noonan | Edenhope R4 | Rubiquity | 4.80 | BET 31% | BET |
| 07.Mar 14:58 | SEN | Chris Nelson | Eagle Farm R4 | Creativity Miss | 5.50 | - | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 15:05 | SEN | David Gately | Flemington R6 | Zambales | 1.60 | SKIP 62% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 15:05 | SEN | Travis Noonan | Flemington R6 | Dr Hook | 12.00 | SKIP 7% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 15:18 | Sky | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Gunnedah R4 | Lily Bobtail | 4.40 | SKIP 13% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 15:21 | SEN | Sam Hyland | Murray Bridge R6 | Florey | 2.60 | BET 58% | BET |
| 07.Mar 15:21 | SEN | Heath Pope | Murray Bridge R6 | Cinque Torri | 16.00 | SKIP 7% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 15:25 | SEN | Travis Noonan | Randwick R6 | Pinito | 3.50 | BET 49% | BET |
| 07.Mar 15:40 | SEN | Mark Hunter | Flemington R7 | Stefi Magnetica | 6.00 | SKIP 9% | TRACK |
| 07.Mar 15:53 | Sky | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Gunnedah R5 | Age Of Aquarius | 1.12 | SKIP 54% | TRACK |
Record: 1W-4L | 8 pending | P/L: -$2.14
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar 10:05 | BF | David Gately | Randwick (AUS) 7th Mar | Beiwacht | 9.40 | $1.00 | PENDING | - |
| 07 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sam Hyland | Bunbury (AUS) 7th Mar | True Player | 6.20 | $1.00 | PENDING | - |
| 07 Mar 10:05 | BF | Mick Gannon | Randwick (AUS) 7th Mar | Agrarian Girl | 3.10 | $1.00 | PENDING | - |
| 07 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sam Hyland | Murray Bridge (AUS) 7th M... | Florey | 2.52 | $1.00 | PENDING | - |
| 07 Mar 09:35 | BF | Travis Noonan | Edenhope (AUS) 7th Mar | Flying Basil | 5.80 | $1.00 | PENDING | - |
| 07 Mar 09:35 | BF | Travis Noonan | Edenhope (AUS) 7th Mar | Rubiquity | 4.70 | $1.00 | PENDING | - |
| 07 Mar 09:35 | BF | Travis Noonan | Randwick (AUS) 7th Mar | Pinito | 3.75 | $1.00 | PENDING | - |
| 07 Mar 09:35 | BF | Travis Noonan | Flemington (AUS) 7th Mar | Damask Rose | 5.20 | $1.00 | PENDING | - |
| 06 Mar 12:05 | BF | Mick Gannon | Dubbo (AUS) 6th Mar | Magic Merlin | 2.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 06 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | LIVING TURF PROVINCIAL MA... | Barrengarry | 2.86 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.86 |
| 06 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | PRINCE OF MEREWETHER PAUL... | Anthropoid | 2.96 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 06 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | MICHAEL HUFF MEMORIAL MID... | Coyote | 3.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 06 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | REWARD HOSPITALITY MAIDEN... | In Circles | 2.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 6W-24L | P/L: -$10.50
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Mar 09:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Co... | Dubbo (AUS) 6th Mar | Magic Merlin | 2.36 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 06 Mar 08:36 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Dubbo (AUS) 6th Mar | La Potenza | 2.86 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 05 Mar 18:36 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | PAKENHAM R4 1000m Hcap | 5. Caffettiera | 3.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 05 Mar 18:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | PINJARRA R4 1200m Mdn | 4. Two Up Boom | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 05 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rebecca Hill | LADBROKES FORM GENIUS BEN... | Aspen Cowboy | 3.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.80 |
| 05 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rebecca Hill | MITAVITE QTIS Three-Year-... | Moonya Lad | 6.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 05 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | MERLANDI FARRIER SERVICES... | Jade Trees | 3.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 05 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rebecca Hill | GREAT NORTHERN BREWING CO... | From This Moment | 8.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 05 Mar 10:36 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 5th Mar | Pretty Slick | 5.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 05 Mar 10:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 5th Mar | Moonya Lad | 6.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 21:05 | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 2. Extravaganza | 1.97 | $1.00 | WON | +$0.97 |
| 04 Mar 19:35 | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 2. White Crest | 2.58 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.58 |
| 04 Mar 18:05 | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 1. Dazzling Dynamo | 3.45 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 18:05 | Hub | Jackson Oldham | Caulfield | 7. Lonstar | 5.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 15:36 | BF | Scott Embry | DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP | Swift Talker | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 15:06 | BF | Scott Embry | INTERNATIONAL WOMENS DAY ... | Tycoon Dreamer | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 15:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Belmont (AUS) 4th Mar | Swift Talker | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 15:06 | BF | Scott Embry | QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP | So Si God | 2.76 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 15:05 | BF | Stats Insider | Phoenix Suns @ Sacramento... | Sacramento Kings | 4.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 14:36 | BF | Darren McAullay | DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP | Swift Talker | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 13:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Belmont (AUS) 4th Mar | Cannykev | 2.26 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ladbrokes Odds Surge Benc... | Montezulu | 4.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | ASAHI SUPER DRY HANDICAP | Manukau | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Dean Watling | Balaklava (AUS) 4th Mar | Flying Brant | 3.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.20 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | RACING AND SPORTS HANDICA... | Sarapo | 4.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP | Swift Talker | 3.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Nelson | LADBROKES QUICK MULTI RAT... | Tomba | 3.05 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.05 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Taylors Wines Rating 0 - ... | Serinite Illusion | 4.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.90 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | BMD Class One Plate | Kohala | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | TQCSI Class One Handicap | Fiabesca | 3.35 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No recent results | |||||||
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 769 | 178W-564L | -$160.68 | -20.9% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 8,434 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.01 | Calibration: 5 points | Last Retrain: 01 Mar 21:15 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.991
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.574 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.419 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.402 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.399 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.364 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.165 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.137 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.101 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.099 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.093 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.078 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.061 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.054 |
|
| Source Edge | -0.004 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.001 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 776 | 9% | 20% | +11% |
| 15-25% | 930 | 20% | 22% | +2% |
| 25-30% | 400 | 27% | 29% | +2% |
| 30-35% | 2635 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2238 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 553 | 44% | 31% | -13% |
| 50%+ | 756 | 60% | 45% | -15% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 63 | BET: 8 | SKIP: 55 | Settled: 0 | Avg EV: -0.20 | Accuracy: 0.0%
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar 22:45 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Don Hunter | 1.30 | -0.76 | -58.1% | Sky | Harness | 18.8% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 22:15 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Flying Colours | 3.05 | -0.64 | -20.8% | Sky | Harness | 12.0% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 22:04 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Draw A Dream | 2.80 | -0.80 | -28.5% | Sky | Harness | 7.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 21:45 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Captains Mistress | 1.03 | -0.68 | -65.8% | Sky | Harness | 31.3% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 21:29 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Tims A Trooper | 3.45 | -0.75 | -21.8% | Sky | Harness | 7.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 21:10 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Rakero Rocket | 3.85 | -0.62 | -16.0% | Sky | Harness | 9.9% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 21:00 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Tremendous Sensati | 2.94 | -0.51 | -17.4% | Sky | Harness | 16.6% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 20:21 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Golden Sunset | 2.16 | -0.31 | -14.3% | Sky | Harness | 32.0% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 20:03 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Zeus Lightning | 1.75 | -0.76 | -43.2% | Sky | Harness | 13.9% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 19:48 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Huxton | 1.35 | -0.65 | -48.4% | Sky | Harness | 25.7% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 19:30 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Fire And Passion | 2.00 | -0.86 | -42.8% | Sky | Harness | 7.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 19:12 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Dashing | 3.05 | -0.69 | -22.5% | Sky | Harness | 10.3% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 18:52 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Showmethetanlines | 1.50 | -0.73 | -48.6% | Sky | Harness | 18.1% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 18:37 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Applied | 2.40 | -0.32 | -13.2% | Sky | Harness | 28.5% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 18:18 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Kingmaker | 2.98 | -0.70 | -23.3% | Sky | Harness | 10.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 17:55 | David Gately | Gangsta Granny | 3.20 | -0.73 | -23.0% | SEN | Horse | 8.3% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 17:48 | Heath Pope | Imposing Suspect | 10.00 | -0.28 | -2.8% | SEN | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 17:23 | Sam Hyland | True Player | 5.50 | +2.21 | +40.2% | SEN | Horse | 58.4% | BET | pending | |
| 07 Mar 17:15 | David Gately | Beiwacht | 9.00 | +2.29 | +25.4% | SEN | Horse | 36.5% | BET | pending | |
| 07 Mar 17:15 | Travis Noonan | Linebacker | 9.50 | -0.32 | -3.3% | SEN | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 17:11 | Travis Noonan | Flying Basil | 6.50 | +0.68 | +10.4% | SEN | Horse | 25.8% | BET | pending | |
| 07 Mar 17:09 | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | El Beatle | 1.12 | -0.31 | -27.3% | Sky | Horse | 62.0% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 16:55 | Josh Jenkins | Tentyris | 2.05 | +0.01 | +0.6% | SEN | Horse | 49.3% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 16:35 | Josh Jenkins | Attica | 9.50 | -0.32 | -3.3% | SEN | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 16:32 | Andre Kassay | Blushing Tycoon | 4.20 | -0.16 | -3.9% | SB | Horse | 20.0% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 16:27 | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Big Shot Legend | 3.90 | -0.64 | -16.5% | Sky | Horse | 9.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 16:15 | Betfair AFL Model | GWS | 1.87 | +0.04 | +2.4% | BET | Other | 55.9% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 16:15 | Josh Jenkins | Sea What I See | 4.00 | -0.71 | -17.8% | SEN | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 16:15 | Travis Noonan | Damask Rose | 4.40 | +0.56 | +12.6% | SEN | Horse | 35.3% | BET | pending | |
| 07 Mar 16:15 | Nick Noonan | Miss Tarzy | 41.00 | +1.95 | +4.8% | SEN | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 16:15 | David Taggart | Benagil | 7.00 | -0.32 | -4.5% | SEN | Horse | 9.7% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 16:08 | Sam Hyland | Rezone | 3.80 | -0.11 | -3.0% | SEN | Horse | 23.3% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 16:00 | benasgari | Giga Kick | 3.50 | +0.10 | +2.9% | BF | Other | 31.5% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 16:00 | Travis Noonan | Raging Force | 3.70 | -0.73 | -19.8% | SEN | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 15:56 | Heath Pope | Gold Spirit | 2.70 | -0.10 | -3.8% | SEN | Horse | 33.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 15:53 | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Age Of Aquarius | 1.12 | -0.39 | -35.3% | Sky | Horse | 54.0% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 15:40 | Mark Hunter | Stefi Magnetica | 6.00 | -0.48 | -8.0% | SEN | Horse | 8.7% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 15:25 | Travis Noonan | Pinito | 3.50 | +0.72 | +20.4% | SEN | Horse | 49.0% | BET | pending | |
| 07 Mar 15:21 | Sam Hyland | Florey | 2.60 | +0.50 | +19.2% | SEN | Horse | 57.7% | BET | pending | |
| 07 Mar 15:21 | Heath Pope | Cinque Torri | 16.00 | +0.15 | +1.0% | SEN | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 15:18 | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Lily Bobtail | 4.40 | -0.43 | -9.9% | Sky | Horse | 12.9% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 15:05 | David Gately | Zambales | 1.60 | -0.01 | -0.5% | SEN | Horse | 62.0% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 15:05 | Travis Noonan | Dr Hook | 12.00 | -0.14 | -1.1% | SEN | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 14:54 | Travis Noonan | Rubiquity | 4.80 | +0.50 | +10.5% | SEN | Horse | 31.4% | BET | pending | |
| 07 Mar 14:50 | David Taggart | Inkaruna | 3.90 | -0.06 | -1.6% | SEN | Horse | 24.1% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 14:50 | Josh Jenkins | Beadman | 2.70 | -0.80 | -29.7% | SEN | Horse | 7.3% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 14:48 | Andre Kassay | Tara's Crown | 3.80 | -0.62 | -16.3% | SB | Horse | 10.0% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 14:42 | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Famahan | 4.10 | -0.42 | -10.2% | Sky | Horse | 14.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 14:30 | Mark Hunter | Salty Pearl | 2.80 | -0.80 | -28.5% | SEN | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 14:30 | Nick Noonan | Exit | 15.00 | +0.08 | +0.5% | SEN | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 14:15 | David Taggart | Stretan Ruler | 3.40 | -0.08 | -2.4% | SEN | Horse | 27.0% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 14:15 | Travis Noonan | Paradoxium | 2.60 | -0.57 | -21.7% | SEN | Horse | 16.7% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 14:08 | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Tipsy Miss | 2.04 | -0.45 | -22.0% | Sky | Horse | 27.0% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 13:55 | David Taggart | On Display | 3.80 | -0.17 | -4.4% | SEN | Horse | 21.9% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 13:40 | Travis Noonan | Naadra | 4.80 | -0.65 | -13.6% | SEN | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 13:40 | David Taggart | Rachini | 7.50 | -0.41 | -5.4% | SEN | Horse | 7.9% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 13:40 | Mick Gannon | Agrarian Girl | 2.70 | +0.29 | +10.8% | SEN | Horse | 47.8% | BET | pending | |
| 07 Mar 13:33 | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Erniegy | 1.68 | +0.03 | +1.6% | Sky | Horse | 61.1% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 13:20 | Mick Gannon | Medicinal | 2.50 | -0.41 | -16.5% | SEN | Horse | 23.5% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 12:57 | Heath Pope | Hysterical Lady | 4.80 | -0.65 | -13.6% | SEN | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 12:45 | David Taggart | Nervous Witness | 21.00 | +0.56 | +2.7% | SEN | Horse | 7.4% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 12:15 | Travis Noonan | Legacy Bound | 2.60 | -0.36 | -13.8% | SEN | Horse | 24.7% | SKIP | pending | |
| 07 Mar 12:15 | David Taggart | Vangogh Bankcheque | 3.00 | -0.74 | -24.7% | SEN | Horse | 8.6% | SKIP | pending |
Solid = v4 (Isotonic, threshold 0.20), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3 (Platt), Green = v4 (Isotonic).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (v4) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |