+$43.41
Total P/L
| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 17 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Ian Humphries | Greenway Turf Solu... | Stormy Reign | 2.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 29.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Ian Humphries | Rensen Constructio... | Classic Touch | 2.15 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 13:56* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | The Final Word | 6.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Dolce D'amour | 1.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Delusionaldictator | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Rewards And More | 2.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Scissor Me Timbers | 2.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Princess Pancakes | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Suits | 1.75 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Aquis Park Gold Co... | Namara | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Aquis Park Gold Co... | Call To Courage | 3.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Aquis Park Gold Co... | King Of Minto | 1.95 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Aquis Park Gold Co... | Little Lunch | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Aquis Park Gold Co... | Watermelon | 3.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Alpine Way | 12.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Park Kyneto... | The Bantam | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Short Reply | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Star Territory | 3.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Wanted Enuff | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Wanted Enuff | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Magic Leprechaun | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Blue Valentine | 4.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Short Reply | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Avonview | 4.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Pentonville Road | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Avonview | 4.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Chloe First | 2.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Enchanted Lass | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Harry White | Wyong R2 | She's A Dame | 3.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Harry White | Rosehill Gardens R... | Annie's Rose | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 7W-25L | P/L: +$4.70
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar 15:35 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Royal Ascot Handicap | Justadeel | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 15:05 | BF | Matt Hill | Royal Ascot Handicap | Justadeel | 4.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 14:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GOLD COAST R2 1900m Mdn | 3. Come On Mr Snips | 7.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 14:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Rosehill (AUS) 28th Mar | Storm Leopard | 4.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.40 |
| 28 Mar 13:05 | BF | Matt Hill | TAB Australian Cup | Birdman | 3.75 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 12:36 | BF | Ben Asgari | ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap | Way To The Stars | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 12:36 | BF | Ben Asgari | Glorious Goodwood Handica... | Stoli Bolli | 4.60 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.60 |
| 28 Mar 12:36 | BF | Dean Watling | Flemington (AUS) 28th Mar | Birdman | 3.55 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 12:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Flemington (AUS) 28th Mar | Moor Mumm | 5.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 12:06 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Glorious Goodwood Handica... | Stoli Bolli | 4.60 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.60 |
| 28 Mar 12:06 | BF | David Strehlau | ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap | Pisanello | 6.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 12:06 | BF | Clint Hutchison | TAB Australian Cup | Birdman | 3.55 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 12:06 | BF | Dean Watling | Flemington (AUS) 28th Mar | Way To The Stars | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 12:05 | BF | Cam Luke | Rosehill (AUS) 28th Mar | Panova | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 12:05 | BF | David Strehlau | Royal Ascot Handicap | Al Duca | 4.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.90 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | Ben Asgari | TAB Australian Cup | Leica Lucy | 6.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Sportsbet Clare Lindop St... | Mating Call | 4.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | Travis Noonan | Flemington (AUS) 28th Mar | Wise Inlaw | 5.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Glorious Goodwood Handica... | Stoli Bolli | 4.50 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.50 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | Brent Zerafa | ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap | Pisanello | 6.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | Matt Hill | ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap | Midwest | 5.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | Brent Zerafa | TAB Australian Cup | Birdman | 3.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | Tony Kneebone | The Curragh, Where Champi... | Pantile Warrior | 5.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | Clint Hutchison | ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap | Way To The Stars | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | AIG Security Handicap (He... | Shadow Eagle | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:35 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Royal Ascot Handicap | Al Duca | 4.70 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.70 |
| 28 Mar 11:05 | BF | David Taggart | Rosehill (AUS) 28th Mar | Verona Rose | 7.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 10:35 | BF | Mark Hunter | Kyneton (AUS) 28th Mar | Pure Rain | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 10:05 | BF | David Gately | Flemington (AUS) 28th Mar | Actuality | 6.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 10:05 | BF | Travis Noonan | Rosehill (AUS) 28th Mar | Varjak | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 09:05 | BF | Heath Pope | Morphettville (AUS) 28th ... | Mating Call | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 08:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Port Macquarie (AUS) 28th... | Blue Dane | 9.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$8.00 |
Record: 3W-18L | P/L: -$3.55
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar 19:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CRANBOURNE R4 1000m Hcap | 4. Reasonable Point | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Mar 13:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Muswellbrook (AUS) 27th M... | Hellsing | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Mar 12:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Muswellbrook (AUS) 27th M... | King Larry | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Mar 12:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Muswellbrook (AUS) 27th M... | Favour The Bold | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Mar 11:35 | BF | Ric McIntosh | Otis Foundation Marong Cu... | Customer Service | 4.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.40 |
| 27 Mar 11:35 | BF | Damian Watson | Cranbourne (AUS) 27th Mar | Hollerasaurous | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | MNP SECURITY BENCHMARK 78... | Muschialli | 6.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Mar 10:35 | BF | Matt Reid | Launceston (AUS) 27th Mar | Symphony Queen | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 19:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | PAKENHAM R6 1400m Hcap | 3. Gellhorn | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 16:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | HAWKESBURY R7 2000m Hcap | 1. Associate | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 14:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | IPSWICH R4 1350m CL5 | 4. Nondisclosure | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 12:05 | BF | Ric McIntosh | Whalers Hotel BM62 Handic... | Kingsford | 4.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | HAWKESBURY R4 1100m Mdn | 4. Liberty Calls | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Whalers Hotel BM62 Handic... | Kingsford | 4.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 11:35 | BF | Ric McIntosh | Fresha Fruit Juices Maide... | Karburan | 3.65 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.65 |
| 26 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | GREAT NORTHERN BENCHMARK ... | Cantarito | 4.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 11:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Warrnambool (AUS) 26th Ma... | Miss Tallchief | 5.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | VOODOO RANGER CUP CLASS 1... | My Proclama | 8.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 11:05 | BF | Cam Luke | Ipswich (AUS) 26th Mar | Funhouse | 6.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 10:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Cairns (AUS) 26th Mar | Time To Prophet | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 10:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Cairns (AUS) 26th Mar | Ellis Beach | 9.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$8.40 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.Mar 22:59 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R10 | Perfectdelight | 1.07 | SKIP 64% | WON |
| 28.Mar 22:29 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R9 | Soho Washington | 2.50 | SKIP 31% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 22:13 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R8 | Tremendous Sensati | 3.05 | SKIP 23% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 21:59 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R8 | Deep Love | 3.05 | SKIP 20% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 21:45 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R7 | Not As Promised | 2.30 | SKIP 26% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 21:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R7 | Take The Miki | 2.00 | SKIP 30% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 21:18 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R6 | Applied | 1.65 | SKIP 31% | WON |
| 28.Mar 21:02 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R6 | Soho Aster | 2.00 | SKIP 35% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 20:53 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R5 | Attachment | 1.40 | SKIP 22% | WON |
| 28.Mar 20:33 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R5 | Hollywood Strip | 1.55 | SKIP 34% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 20:17 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R4 | Leap To Fame | 1.02 | SKIP 20% | WON |
| 28.Mar 19:57 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R4 | Sparkling Sea | 1.23 | SKIP 44% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 19:46 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R3 | Amami | 1.95 | SKIP 28% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 19:25 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R3 | Ripp | 1.55 | SKIP 40% | WON |
| 28.Mar 19:17 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R2 | Credulous | 3.85 | SKIP 31% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 18:47 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R2 | Don Hunter | 1.21 | SKIP 24% | WON |
| 28.Mar 18:39 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R1 | Cotchinellie | 2.00 | SKIP 30% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 18:15 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R1 | Bettorcheckherout | 1.35 | SKIP 30% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 18:10 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Doomben R9 | 15. Cindersea | 6.46 | SKIP 19% | WON |
| 28.Mar 18:10 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Doomben R9 | Dominant Darcy | 2.05 | SKIP 20% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 17:55 | SEN | Travis Noonan | Rosehill R10 | La Fracas | 17.00 | SKIP 16% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 17:48 | Racing Com | John Kelton | Morphettville R10 | Shadow Eagle | 5.50 | BET 30% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 17:48 | SEN | Heath Pope | Morphettville R10 | Ice Symphony | 13.00 | SKIP 20% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 17:40 | Racing Com | Harry White | Wyong R8 | Flying Embers | 4.60 | SKIP 24% | LOST |
| 28.Mar 17:35 | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Flemington R10 | Al Duca | 4.40 | - | WON |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 1038 | 231W-783L | -$180.82 | -17.4% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 10,139 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 15 Mar 23:21 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.932
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.348 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.290 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.257 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.238 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.174 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.114 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.112 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.105 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.082 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.073 |
|
| Form Score | +0.054 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.050 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.039 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.039 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.034 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.034 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.022 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.021 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.019 |
|
| Barrier | +0.011 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.007 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1162 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1434 | 21% | 22% | +2% |
| 25-30% | 660 | 27% | 26% | -1% |
| 30-35% | 2803 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2349 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 691 | 44% | 32% | -12% |
| 50%+ | 944 | 60% | 42% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 26 | BET: 1 | SKIP: 25 | Settled: 25 | Avg EV: -0.17 | Accuracy: 68.0% | Brier: 0.200 vs Mkt 0.199 (-0.001)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar 15:15 | Betfair AFL Model | Carlton | 1.86 | -0.19 | -10.1% | BET | Other | 43.7% | SKIP | pending | |
| 28 Mar 22:59 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Perfectdelight | 1.07 | -0.32 | -29.6% | Sky | Harness | 63.8% | SKIP | WON +$0.07 | |
| 28 Mar 22:29 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Soho Washington | 2.50 | -0.22 | -8.6% | Sky | Harness | 31.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 22:13 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Tremendous Sensati | 3.05 | -0.30 | -9.9% | Sky | Harness | 22.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 21:59 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Deep Love | 3.05 | -0.40 | -13.3% | Sky | Harness | 19.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 21:45 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Not As Promised | 2.30 | -0.40 | -17.3% | Sky | Harness | 26.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 21:30 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Take The Miki | 2.00 | -0.40 | -20.0% | Sky | Harness | 30.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 21:18 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Applied | 1.65 | -0.48 | -29.1% | Sky | Harness | 31.5% | SKIP | WON +$0.65 | |
| 28 Mar 21:02 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Soho Aster | 2.00 | -0.30 | -14.9% | Sky | Harness | 35.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 20:53 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Attachment | 1.40 | -0.69 | -49.3% | Sky | Harness | 22.1% | SKIP | WON +$0.40 | |
| 28 Mar 20:33 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Hollywood Strip | 1.55 | -0.48 | -30.8% | Sky | Harness | 33.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 20:17 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Leap To Fame | 1.02 | -0.79 | -77.6% | Sky | Harness | 20.4% | SKIP | WON +$0.02 | |
| 28 Mar 19:57 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Sparkling Sea | 1.23 | -0.45 | -36.9% | Sky | Harness | 44.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 19:46 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Amami | 1.95 | -0.44 | -22.8% | Sky | Harness | 28.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 19:35 | Betfair AFL Model | Essendon | 1.94 | -0.21 | -10.7% | BET | Other | 40.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 19:25 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Ripp | 1.55 | -0.38 | -24.3% | Sky | Harness | 40.2% | SKIP | WON +$0.55 | |
| 28 Mar 19:17 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Credulous | 3.85 | +0.20 | +5.1% | Sky | Harness | 31.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 18:47 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Don Hunter | 1.21 | -0.71 | -58.8% | Sky | Harness | 23.9% | SKIP | WON +$0.21 | |
| 28 Mar 18:39 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Cotchinellie | 2.00 | -0.41 | -20.3% | Sky | Harness | 29.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 18:15 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bettorcheckherout | 1.35 | -0.60 | -44.5% | Sky | Harness | 29.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 18:10 | Betfair Rated Model | 15. Cindersea | 6.46 | +0.23 | +3.5% | BF | Horse | 19.0% | SKIP | WON +$5.46 | |
| 28 Mar 18:10 | Rebecca Hill | Dominant Darcy | 2.05 | -0.59 | -28.8% | RC | Horse | 20.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 17:55 | Travis Noonan | La Fracas | 17.00 | +1.64 | +9.6% | SEN | Horse | 15.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 17:48 | Heath Pope | Ice Symphony | 13.00 | +1.57 | +12.1% | SEN | Horse | 19.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 17:48 | John Kelton | Shadow Eagle | 5.50 | +0.67 | +12.2% | RC | Horse | 30.4% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Mar 17:40 | Harry White | Flying Embers | 4.60 | +0.10 | +2.1% | RC | Horse | 23.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |