+$43.41
Total P/L
| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 17 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.Mar 05:14* | Sportsbet | Kevin Casey | Bncc Security Serv... | What A Rush | 5.50 | - | TRACK |
| 24.Mar 04:44* | Sportsbet | Kevin Casey | Port Macquarie R6 | He's Cool | 4.60 | SKIP 29% | TRACK |
| 23.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Harry White | Ballina R5 | Odin's Mount | 2.25 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 23.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Harry White | Ballina R6 | Amaya's Secret | 4.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 23.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Harry White | Ballina R4 | I'lltellyouafter | 13.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 23.Mar 11:14* | Sportsbet | Kevin Casey | Bncc Security Serv... | What A Rush | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 23.Mar 11:14* | Sportsbet | Kevin Casey | Chris Cousens Hcp ... | He's Cool | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 23.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Andre Kassay | Manhari R7 | Just Remember It | 4.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 23.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Andre Kassay | Manhari Mdn Plate ... | Irreverent | 2.45 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 12:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | PINJARRA R8 | Can't Catch Me | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 23.Mar 10:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Belinda Smith | BALLINA R5 | Odin's Mount | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 15:14* | Sportsbet | Julie Rowland | Squib Group R4 | Allinthetiming | 3.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R8 | Think Quick | 10.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R2 | Blue Lupin | 9.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R1 | Lord Arcadia | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R6 | Dancewithme | 2.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R10 | Seindeel | 2.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R3 | Quokka Rocka | 11.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R7 | Split The Gee | 3.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R9 | Royal Law | 7.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R5 | Wheely | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R4 | King Brew | 2.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R6 | Cheval Chic | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R3 | Missile One | 2.35 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R1 | Worththeadmission | 2.45 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R2 | Clive's Glory | 1.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R4 | Spies On | 1.45 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R8 | Monastery | 8.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R7 | Star Venture | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R5 | Ritualize | 3.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 0W-1L | P/L: -$1.00
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Mar 12:35 | BF | Amanda Rando | Bathurst (AUS) 23rd Mar | Berocca Bernie | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 0W-16L | P/L: -$16.00
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | TAUHERENIKAU R3 1600m 3yo | 8. I Love Lucy | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 22 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | Squib Group Benchmark 66 ... | Lonely One | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 22 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | TAMBURLAINE ORGANIC WINE ... | Kirk | 7.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 16:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | DALBY R6 1200m Hcap | 3. Purezza | 8.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 15:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | QUEANBEYAN R4 1460m Mdn | 6. Closethedoordarcy | 8.00 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 21 Mar 14:05 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Orbit Logistics Don Casbo... | Bassett Babe | 4.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 12:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Caulfield (AUS) 21st Mar | Tropicus | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:36 | BF | David Strehlau | Orbit Logistics Don Casbo... | Bassett Babe | 4.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | JOHN COLE RETIREMENT CG&E... | Chokuto | 4.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | ETHOS ORTHODONTICS BENCHM... | Weigall Tiger | 7.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | PITCHER PARTNERS BENCHMAR... | Rhapsody Chic | 9.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:35 | BF | Matt Hill | Ladbrokes William Reid St... | Angel Capital | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | VECCHIO PROPERTY GROUP BE... | Smexy | 6.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:05 | BF | Chris Nelson | Eagle Farm (AUS) 21st Mar | Vivika | 6.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 09:35 | BF | Heath Pope | Morphettville (AUS) 21st ... | Cinque Torri | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 09:35 | BF | Travis Noonan | Rosehill (AUS) 21st Mar | Warwoven | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 09:05 | BF | Travis Noonan | Caulfield (AUS) 21st Mar | Angel Capital | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.Mar 20:43 | SEN | Darren Carroll | Ararat R5 | Outback Queenie | 1.45 | SKIP 45% | LOST |
| 23.Mar 19:30 | SEN | Darren Carroll | Ararat R3 | Black Opal Jack | 1.75 | SKIP 47% | LOST |
| 23.Mar 17:37 | SEN | Amanda Rando | Bathurst R7 | Hollywood Strip | 1.01 | SKIP 48% | WON |
| 23.Mar 17:30 | SEN | Luke Hovhanesian | Ballina R7 | Jade Trees | 2.45 | SKIP 22% | LOST |
| 23.Mar 17:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Belinda Smith | Ballina R7 | Jade Trees | 2.42 | SKIP 20% | LOST |
| 23.Mar 17:30 | Racing Com | Harry White | Ballina R7 | Jade Trees | 2.50 | SKIP 30% | LOST |
| 23.Mar 09:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Newcastle R7 | Miss Capricorn | 5.50 | SKIP 18% | LOST |
| 23.Mar 06:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Newcastle R7 | Mirai San | 3.60 | SKIP 25% | VOID |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 974 | 219W-731L | -$189.01 | -19.4% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 9,715 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 15 Mar 23:21 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.932
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.348 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.290 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.257 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.238 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.174 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.114 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.112 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.105 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.082 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.073 |
|
| Form Score | +0.054 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.050 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.039 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.039 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.034 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.034 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.022 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.021 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.019 |
|
| Barrier | +0.011 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.007 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1161 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1251 | 21% | 22% | +1% |
| 25-30% | 565 | 27% | 28% | +0% |
| 30-35% | 2742 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2320 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 656 | 44% | 33% | -11% |
| 50%+ | 922 | 60% | 43% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 9 | BET: 0 | SKIP: 9 | Settled: 8 | Avg EV: -0.23 | Accuracy: 87.5% | Brier: 0.122 vs Mkt 0.176 (+0.054)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mar 16:15 | Kevin Casey | He's Cool | 4.60 | +0.32 | +7.0% | SB | Horse | 28.7% | SKIP | pending | |
| 23 Mar 20:43 | Darren Carroll | Outback Queenie | 1.45 | -0.34 | -23.7% | SEN | Harness | 45.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 23 Mar 19:30 | Darren Carroll | Black Opal Jack | 1.75 | -0.17 | -9.8% | SEN | Harness | 47.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 23 Mar 17:50 | Shayne Montgomery | Miss Capricorn | 5.50 | +0.01 | +0.3% | SB | Horse | 18.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 23 Mar 17:50 | Shayne Montgomery | Mirai San | 3.60 | -0.10 | -2.7% | SB | Horse | 25.0% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 23 Mar 17:37 | Amanda Rando | Hollywood Strip | 1.01 | -0.52 | -51.5% | SEN | Harness | 47.5% | SKIP | WON +$0.01 | |
| 23 Mar 17:30 | Luke Hovhanesian | Jade Trees | 2.45 | -0.47 | -19.2% | SEN | Horse | 21.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 23 Mar 17:30 | Sky Racing - Belinda Smith | Jade Trees | 2.42 | -0.53 | -21.7% | Sky | Horse | 19.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 23 Mar 17:30 | Harry White | Jade Trees | 2.50 | -0.24 | -9.6% | RC | Horse | 30.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |