| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 15 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Scott McDonell | RNone None | Theology | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Scott McDonell | Hertz Mdn Plate R3 | Luigi The Brave | 2.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 13:26* | Racing Com | Tim Edwards | Sportsbet Oakbank ... | Now East | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 13:26* | Racing Com | Tim Edwards | Sportsbet Oakbank ... | Rich Lady | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 13:26* | Racing Com | Tim Edwards | Sportsbet Oakbank ... | Piwhane | 4.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 13:26* | Racing Com | Tim Edwards | Sportsbet Oakbank ... | Flyway | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 13:26* | Racing Com | Tim Edwards | Sportsbet Oakbank ... | Silver Lifestyle | 6.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 13:26* | Racing Com | Tim Edwards | Sportsbet Oakbank ... | Largs Legacy | 1.95 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 13:26* | Racing Com | Tim Edwards | Sportsbet Oakbank ... | Boolcunda Dawn | 3.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 12:56* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Caulfield Heath R1 | Light Moves | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 12:56* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Caulfield Heath R8 | Regeneration | 2.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 12:56* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Caulfield Heath R6 | Sparkling Luck | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 12:56* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Caulfield Heath R4 | Santana | 3.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 12:56* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Caulfield Heath R2 | All Business | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 12:56* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Caulfield Heath R7 | Mrs Iglesia | 3.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 12:56* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Caulfield Heath R5 | Bayou Music | 4.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 12:56* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Caulfield Heath R3 | Oliveanotherday | 1.45 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 12:44* | Sportsbet | Mark Wise | Western Racepix R7 | Pure Chino | 8.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 12:44* | Sportsbet | Mark Wise | Country Comfort Md... | Acoustic Bubbles | 1.95 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 12:08* | SEN | David Taggart | Caulfield Heath R8 | Regeneration | 2.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 12:08* | SEN | David Taggart | Caulfield Heath R4 | Nar Nar Goon | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Caulfield Heath R2 | Straand Deal | 7.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Caulfield Heath R3 | Oliveanotherday | 1.55 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Caulfield Heath R7 | Mrs Iglesia | 3.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Caulfield Heath R4 | Santana | 3.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Caulfield Heath R5 | Sotomayor | 8.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Caulfield Heath R8 | Regeneration | 2.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Caulfield Heath R6 | Sparkling Luck | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Caulfield Heath R1 | Savitri | 3.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 18.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | John Kelton | Sportsbet Oakbank ... | Tour De Moon | 2.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 2W-8L | P/L: +$3.80
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar 18:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CAULFIELD R8 1000m Hcap | 2. Excess | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 18:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CAULFIELD R8 1000m Hcap | 3. Along The River | 7.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 17:05 | BF | Scott Embry | STATEWIDE OIL HANDICAP | Tycoon Dreamer | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 17:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ASCOT R1 1400m CL3 | 2. Extreme Love | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 14:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | ENCORE BY MINGARA HANDICA... | Maybe Moet | 2.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 14:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | SUNSET SOIREE 20 MARCH QT... | Geitz | 6.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | WYONG R3 1625m Mdn | 10. Lilac Girl | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | BECOME A BRC MEMBER Maide... | Koolibah | 4.60 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.60 |
| 18 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | COAST COMMUNITY NEWS HAND... | Think Itz You | 9.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$8.20 |
| 18 Mar 06:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Caulfield (AUS) 18th Mar | Sparkling Luck | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 1W-9L | P/L: -$5.00
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar 16:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Moree (AUS) 17th Mar | Claudio | 8.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 17 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | HAPPY BIRTHDAY ALI ARNDT ... | Shadow Of Light | 6.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 17 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | PIONEER SERVICES BENCHMAR... | Smart Cry | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 17 Mar 10:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Terang (AUS) 17th Mar | Break The Taboo | 8.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 16 Mar 16:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | PORT MACQUARIE R5 1500m C... | 6. Surpasser | 9.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 16 Mar 14:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | NOWRA R1 1400m Mdn | 6. Beauty Birdie | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 16 Mar 12:05 | BF | Amanda Rando | Bankstown (AUS) 16th Mar | Fe Fe On Fire | 5.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 16 Mar 12:05 | BF | Amanda Rando | Bankstown (AUS) 16th Mar | Stellina | 8.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 16 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | HANLON WINDOWS MAIDEN HAN... | Anyone | 5.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$4.00 |
| 16 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | SUSSEX INLET RSL CLUB MAI... | Pombia | 7.60 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 16 Mar 08:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Port Macquarie (AUS) 16th... | Fashion Spree | 8.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 16 Mar 06:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Nowra (AUS) 16th Mar | Prince Harrison | 8.00 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.Mar 20:40 | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Ascot R7 | Aitch Montana | 5.00 | SKIP 29% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 20:40 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R7 | Miss Veuve | 4.60 | SKIP 25% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 20:40 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R7 | Aitch Montana | 4.90 | SKIP 27% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 20:40 | Racing Com | Scott Embry | Ascot R7 | Myzoom | 6.00 | SKIP 21% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 20:05 | Racing Com | Scott Embry | Ascot R6 | New Target | 2.35 | SKIP 37% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 20:05 | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Ascot R6 | New Target | 2.35 | SKIP 37% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 20:05 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R6 | New Target | 2.25 | SKIP 38% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 20:05 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | ASCOT R6 1000m CL3 | 2. Scenic George | 5.16 | - | LOST |
| 18.Mar 20:05 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R6 | New Target | 2.30 | SKIP 49% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 19:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R5 | Mr Kissinger | 3.70 | SKIP 26% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 19:30 | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Ascot R5 | Mr Kissinger | 3.50 | SKIP 33% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 19:30 | Racing Com | Scott Embry | Ascot R5 | Tycoon Dreamer | 3.40 | BET 45% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 19:30 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R5 | Melody Fair | 4.40 | SKIP 19% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 18:55 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R4 | Newhaven Prince | 3.30 | SKIP 32% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 18:55 | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Ascot R4 | Newhaven Prince | 3.40 | SKIP 31% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 18:55 | Racing Com | Scott Embry | Ascot R4 | Newhaven Prince | 3.40 | SKIP 31% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 18:55 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R4 | Newhaven Prince | 3.40 | SKIP 35% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 18:30 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Caulfield R8 | 3. Along The River | 6.28 | BET 27% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 18:30 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Caulfield R8 | 2. Excess | 6.99 | BET 24% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 18:20 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R3 | Mr Kaplan | 3.30 | SKIP 28% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 18:20 | Racing Com | Scott Embry | Ascot R3 | Mr Kaplan | 3.40 | SKIP 19% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 18:20 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R3 | Afireofgidgeecoals | 3.80 | SKIP 17% | WON |
| 18.Mar 18:20 | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Ascot R3 | Mr Kaplan | 3.40 | SKIP 19% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 18:10 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Doomben R8 | 3. Delrico | 5.75 | SKIP 25% | LOST |
| 18.Mar 18:10 | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Doomben R8 | Tenbury Wells | 2.45 | SKIP 23% | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 944 | 220W-702L | -$165.75 | -17.6% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 9,318 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 15 Mar 23:21 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.932
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.348 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.290 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.257 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.238 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.174 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.114 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.112 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.105 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.082 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.073 |
|
| Form Score | +0.054 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.050 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.039 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.039 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.034 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.034 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.022 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.021 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.019 |
|
| Barrier | +0.011 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.007 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1161 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1072 | 20% | 23% | +2% |
| 25-30% | 483 | 27% | 28% | +1% |
| 30-35% | 2702 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2290 | 37% | 31% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 629 | 44% | 32% | -12% |
| 50%+ | 903 | 60% | 43% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 34 | BET: 4 | SKIP: 30 | Settled: 34 | Avg EV: -0.01 | Accuracy: 79.4% | Brier: 0.152 vs Mkt 0.165 (+0.013)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar 20:40 | Scott Embry | Myzoom | 6.00 | +0.24 | +4.0% | RC | Horse | 20.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 20:40 | Darren McAullay | Aitch Montana | 5.00 | +0.44 | +8.7% | RC | Horse | 28.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 20:40 | Rylie Morgan | Miss Veuve | 4.60 | +0.14 | +3.0% | RC | Horse | 24.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 20:40 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Aitch Montana | 4.90 | +0.31 | +6.3% | Sky | Horse | 26.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 20:05 | Scott Embry | New Target | 2.35 | -0.12 | -5.2% | RC | Horse | 37.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 20:05 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | New Target | 2.30 | +0.13 | +5.5% | Sky | Horse | 49.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 20:05 | Rylie Morgan | New Target | 2.25 | -0.15 | -6.6% | RC | Horse | 37.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 20:05 | Darren McAullay | New Target | 2.35 | -0.13 | -5.5% | RC | Horse | 37.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 19:30 | Darren McAullay | Mr Kissinger | 3.50 | +0.14 | +4.0% | RC | Horse | 32.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 19:30 | Scott Embry | Tycoon Dreamer | 3.40 | +0.54 | +16.0% | RC | Horse | 45.4% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 19:30 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Mr Kissinger | 3.70 | -0.04 | -1.1% | Sky | Horse | 26.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 19:30 | Rylie Morgan | Melody Fair | 4.40 | -0.16 | -3.6% | RC | Horse | 19.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 18:55 | Rylie Morgan | Newhaven Prince | 3.30 | +0.04 | +1.3% | RC | Horse | 31.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 18:55 | Scott Embry | Newhaven Prince | 3.40 | +0.07 | +1.9% | RC | Horse | 31.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 18:55 | Darren McAullay | Newhaven Prince | 3.40 | +0.06 | +1.7% | RC | Horse | 31.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 18:55 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Newhaven Prince | 3.40 | +0.19 | +5.6% | Sky | Horse | 35.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 18:30 | Betfair Rated Model | 3. Along The River | 6.28 | +0.71 | +11.3% | BF | Horse | 27.3% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 18:30 | Betfair Rated Model | 2. Excess | 6.99 | +0.69 | +9.8% | BF | Horse | 24.1% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 18:20 | Rylie Morgan | Afireofgidgeecoals | 3.80 | -0.37 | -9.8% | RC | Horse | 16.5% | SKIP | WON +$2.80 | |
| 18 Mar 18:20 | Scott Embry | Mr Kaplan | 3.40 | -0.35 | -10.3% | RC | Horse | 19.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 18:20 | Darren McAullay | Mr Kaplan | 3.40 | -0.35 | -10.4% | RC | Horse | 19.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 18:20 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Mr Kaplan | 3.30 | -0.09 | -2.7% | Sky | Horse | 27.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 18:10 | Betfair Rated Model | 3. Delrico | 5.75 | +0.43 | +7.5% | BF | Horse | 24.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 18:10 | Chris Nelson | Tenbury Wells | 2.45 | -0.44 | -18.1% | RC | Horse | 22.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 18:00 | Brendan Tupper | Mrs Iglesia | 4.20 | -0.08 | -1.8% | SB | Horse | 22.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 17:50 | Chris Camilleri | Maybe Moet | 2.35 | +0.46 | +19.6% | RC | Horse | 62.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 17:44 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | So Much Serenity | 2.22 | -0.20 | -9.1% | Sky | Horse | 35.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 17:44 | Scott Embry | Peaceful Ruler | 2.45 | -0.54 | -22.2% | RC | Horse | 18.6% | SKIP | WON +$1.45 | |
| 18 Mar 17:44 | Darren McAullay | So Much Serenity | 2.30 | -0.37 | -16.1% | RC | Horse | 27.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 17:44 | Rylie Morgan | Peaceful Ruler | 2.40 | -0.57 | -23.6% | RC | Horse | 18.0% | SKIP | WON +$1.40 | |
| 18 Mar 17:33 | Chris Nelson | Marunouchi | 1.75 | -0.31 | -17.5% | SEN | Horse | 39.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 17:33 | Chris Nelson | Marunouchi | 1.65 | -0.47 | -28.5% | RC | Horse | 32.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 17:25 | Brendan Tupper | Sparkling Luck | 7.00 | +0.52 | +7.5% | SB | Horse | 21.8% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 18 Mar 17:18 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Queenofdance | 1.02 | -0.83 | -81.2% | Sky | Harness | 16.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |