| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 12 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05.Mar 07:54* | Hub | Ace Previews | Ziz Bergs v Struff | Zizou Bergs | 1.61 | SKIP 58% | TRACK |
| 05.Mar 05:14* | Sportsbet | Dean Watling | Grafton R7 | Jade Trees | 3.40 | SKIP 7% | TRACK |
| 05.Mar 03:44* | Sportsbet | Dean Watling | Grafton R5 | Joanjett | 1.80 | SKIP 10% | TRACK |
| 05.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Lees Racing R5 | Golden Smile | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Recruit Now Mdn Hc... | Rach | 3.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 21:24* | Hub | Ace Previews | Navone v Giron | Giron | - | SKIP 49% | TRACK |
| 04.Mar 13:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | BELMONT R2 | Searchin' Times | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 14:38* | SEN | Cam Luke | Caulfield Heath R6 | Eternal | 2.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 14:38* | SEN | David Taggart | Caulfield Heath R5 | Crown Crusher | 6.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 14:38* | SEN | Cam Luke | Caulfield Heath R4 | Hot Sand | 15.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 14:38* | SEN | Cam Luke | Caulfield Heath R3 | Torsheen | 1.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 14:38* | SEN | Cam Luke | Caulfield Heath R2 | Phoebe Buffay | 4.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 14:38* | SEN | Cam Luke | Warwick Farm R7 | Nana's Wish | 9.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 14:38* | SEN | Cam Luke | Warwick Farm R1 | Coco Affair | 2.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 14:38* | SEN | David Taggart | Warwick Farm R1 | She's Extra | 2.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 14:26* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Belmont R2 | Searchin' Times | 2.05 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 14:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Balaklava R1 | Kohala | 4.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Belmont R2 | Searchin' Times | 2.35 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Caulfield Heath R4 | Oyster Lane | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Caulfield Heath R4 | Rough Enuff | 8.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Caulfield Heath R8 | Jennyanydots | 7.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Caulfield Heath R3 | Torsheen | 1.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Caulfield Heath R5 | Loud Charlie | 3.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Caulfield Heath R6 | Eternal | 2.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Caulfield Heath R7 | Lonstar | 4.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Caulfield Heath R2 | Mr Independent | 2.45 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Caulfield Heath R1 | Invincible Lover | 3.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Caulfield Heath R2 | Mr Independent | 2.45 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Caulfield Heath R6 | Eternal | 2.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 04.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Caulfield Heath R8 | Excess | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 5W-16L | P/L: -$5.30
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Mar 21:05 | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 2. Extravaganza | 1.97 | $1.00 | WON | +$0.97 |
| 04 Mar 19:35 | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 2. White Crest | 2.58 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.58 |
| 04 Mar 18:05 | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 1. Dazzling Dynamo | 3.45 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 18:05 | Hub | Jackson Oldham | Caulfield | 7. Lonstar | 5.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 15:36 | BF | Scott Embry | DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP | Swift Talker | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 15:06 | BF | Scott Embry | INTERNATIONAL WOMENS DAY ... | Tycoon Dreamer | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 15:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Belmont (AUS) 4th Mar | Swift Talker | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 15:06 | BF | Scott Embry | QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP | So Si God | 2.76 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 15:05 | BF | Stats Insider | Phoenix Suns @ Sacramento... | Sacramento Kings | 4.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 14:36 | BF | Darren McAullay | DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP | Swift Talker | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 13:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Belmont (AUS) 4th Mar | Cannykev | 2.26 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ladbrokes Odds Surge Benc... | Montezulu | 4.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | ASAHI SUPER DRY HANDICAP | Manukau | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Dean Watling | Balaklava (AUS) 4th Mar | Flying Brant | 3.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.20 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | RACING AND SPORTS HANDICA... | Sarapo | 4.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP | Swift Talker | 3.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Nelson | LADBROKES QUICK MULTI RAT... | Tomba | 3.05 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.05 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Taylors Wines Rating 0 - ... | Serinite Illusion | 4.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.90 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | BMD Class One Plate | Kohala | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | TQCSI Class One Handicap | Fiabesca | 3.35 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:05 | Hub | Stats Insider | Dallas Mavericks @ Charlo... | Dallas Mavericks | 6.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 1W-26L | P/L: -$24.56
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Mar 22:05 | Hub | Betfair Cricket... | South Africa v New Zealan... | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 03 Mar 20:35 | Hub | Tony Hargraves | Bournemouth v Brentford | Brentford | 2.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 17:05 | Hub | Will Norman | Menangle | 1. Caulonia Courage | 3.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 15:36 | BF | Cam Luke | Ararat (AUS) 3rd Mar | Colour Our World | 3.05 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 12:36 | BF | Adam Crettenden | Ords Motorcycles BM62 Han... | Colour Our World | 3.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 12:35 | BF | Adam Crettenden | Manhari BM56 Handicap | My Uncle Did It | 3.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 12:35 | BF | Adam Crettenden | Harris Accident Repair Ce... | Chouxdino | 3.55 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sam Lyons | bet365 Bet Boost BM56 Han... | Simply Sassy | 3.45 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sam Lyons | Manhari BM56 Handicap | My Uncle Did It | 3.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sam Lyons | Harvey Norman Ararat 3YO ... | Aradeo | 2.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sam Lyons | Ords Motorcycles BM62 Han... | Colour Our World | 2.86 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 10:05 | Hub | Stats Insider | Houston Rockets @ Washing... | Washington Wizards | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 08:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Taree (AUS) 3rd Mar | Steely Girl | 3.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 02 Mar 19:35 | BF | Stats Insider | Ballarat | 4. Mother Georgia | 1.92 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 02 Mar 17:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Thangool (AUS) 2nd Mar | Tara I Am | 2.48 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 02 Mar 16:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | York (AUS) 2nd Mar | Quick Cookie | 3.35 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 02 Mar 16:06 | BF | Darren McAullay | SADDLERY WHOLESALERS HAND... | Global Trip | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 02 Mar 16:05 | BF | Darren McAullay | DARRY’S PLUMBING AND GAS ... | Bill Selects | 2.74 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 02 Mar 16:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | York (AUS) 2nd Mar | Makwell Smart | 3.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 02 Mar 16:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | York (AUS) 2nd Mar | Daisiesfortheladys | 4.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 02 Mar 15:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | York (AUS) 2nd Mar | Bill Selects | 2.74 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 02 Mar 15:05 | BF | Luke Hovhanesia... | Tamworth (AUS) 2nd Mar | Stern Dispute | 4.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 02 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | York (AUS) 2nd Mar | Global Trip | 3.75 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 02 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Thangool (AUS) 2nd Mar | Ishotthedeputy | 2.68 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 02 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Thangool (AUS) 2nd Mar | Cobbo | 2.44 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.44 |
| 02 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | Grow Agribusiness & Finan... | Horrible Hank | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 02 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | Milne Bros Truck & Tracto... | Hou Long Gwai | 4.70 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 02 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | Teys Australia Biloela BM... | Ishotthedeputy | 2.68 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 02 Mar 10:35 | Hub | Stats Insider | Oklahoma City Thunder @ D... | Dallas Mavericks | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04.Mar 22:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Redcliffe R8 | War Zone | 1.60 | SKIP 34% | WON |
| 04.Mar 22:02 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Redcliffe R7 | Leota | 1.55 | SKIP 10% | LOST |
| 04.Mar 21:33 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Redcliffe R6 | Vodka En Ice | 3.05 | SKIP 18% | WON |
| 04.Mar 21:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Launceston R8 | Montezulu | 4.90 | SKIP 13% | LOST |
| 04.Mar 21:30 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R8 | Montezulu | 4.60 | BET 27% | LOST |
| 04.Mar 21:24* | Hub | Ace Previews | Birrell v Oks Sele... | Oksana Selekhmeteva | 1.98 | SKIP 55% | LOST |
| 04.Mar 21:03 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Redcliffe R5 | Impermissible | 1.50 | SKIP 25% | WON |
| 04.Mar 21:00 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R7 | Mastretta | 2.45 | SKIP 25% | LOST |
| 04.Mar 21:00 | Sky | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Launceston R7 | Mastretta | 2.42 | SKIP 33% | LOST |
| 04.Mar 20:54* | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 2. Extravaganza | 1.97 | BET 62% | WON |
| 04.Mar 20:40 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Belmont R7 | Swift Talker | 3.50 | SKIP 31% | LOST |
| 04.Mar 20:40 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Belmont R7 | Swift Talker | 3.70 | BET 38% | LOST |
| 04.Mar 20:40 | Racing Com | Scott Embry | Belmont R7 | Swift Talker | 3.40 | BET 51% | LOST |
| 04.Mar 20:40 | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Belmont R7 | Swift Talker | 3.40 | BET 48% | LOST |
| 04.Mar 20:32 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Redcliffe R4 | The Rizzler | 1.35 | SKIP 46% | WON |
| 04.Mar 20:24* | Hub | Darren and Brett Carroll | Bendigo | 2. Always Skye High | 8.60 | SKIP 11% | LOST |
| 04.Mar 20:24* | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 6. Prison Break | 2.90 | BET 52% | WON |
| 04.Mar 20:24* | Hub | Steve Christie | Launceston | 3. Mastretta | 2.44 | SKIP 37% | LOST |
| 04.Mar 20:24* | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 2. Over Achiever | 1.31 | SKIP 62% | WON |
| 04.Mar 20:20 | Sky | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Launceston R6 | Wolf Junior | 1.99 | SKIP 50% | LOST |
| 04.Mar 20:20 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R6 | Wolf Junior | 2.05 | SKIP 9% | LOST |
| 04.Mar 20:03 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Redcliffe R3 | Mister Delwin | 9.20 | - | LOST |
| 04.Mar 20:00 | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Belmont R6 | Cannykev | 2.05 | - | LOST |
| 04.Mar 20:00 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Belmont R6 | Cannykev | 2.20 | - | LOST |
| 04.Mar 20:00 | Racing Com | Scott Embry | Belmont R6 | Cannykev | 2.05 | - | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 755 | 183W-553L | -$157.28 | -20.8% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 8,201 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.01 | Calibration: 5 points | Last Retrain: 01 Mar 21:15 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.991
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.574 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.419 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.402 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.399 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.364 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.165 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.137 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.101 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.099 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.093 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.078 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.061 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.054 |
|
| Source Edge | -0.004 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.001 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 713 | 9% | 20% | +11% |
| 15-25% | 908 | 20% | 22% | +2% |
| 25-30% | 391 | 27% | 29% | +2% |
| 30-35% | 2628 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2237 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 533 | 44% | 31% | -13% |
| 50%+ | 732 | 60% | 45% | -15% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 35 | BET: 10 | SKIP: 25 | Settled: 27 | Avg EV: -0.08 | Accuracy: 59.3% | Brier: 0.212 vs Mkt 0.187 (-0.026)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Mar 16:50 | Dean Watling | Jade Trees | 3.40 | -0.75 | -22.2% | SB | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 05 Mar 15:35 | Dean Watling | Joanjett | 1.80 | -0.81 | -45.2% | SB | Horse | 10.3% | SKIP | pending | |
| 05 Mar 07:35 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 1.58 | -0.09 | -5.6% | Hub | Other | 57.7% | SKIP | pending | |
| 05 Mar 07:15 | Tony Hargraves | Newcastle | 2.78 | +0.34 | +12.2% | Hub | Other | 48.1% | BET | pending | |
| 05 Mar 06:30 | Tony Hargraves | Over 2.5 Goals | 1.75 | -0.10 | -5.4% | Hub | Other | 51.7% | SKIP | pending | |
| 05 Mar 06:30 | Tony Hargraves | Arsenal | 1.72 | -0.11 | -6.1% | Hub | Other | 52.0% | SKIP | pending | |
| 05 Mar 06:30 | Tony Hargraves | No | 2.04 | +0.08 | +4.1% | Hub | Other | 53.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 05 Mar 06:30 | Tony Hargraves | Chelsea | 2.60 | +0.27 | +10.5% | Hub | Other | 49.0% | BET | pending | |
| 05 Mar 06:00 | Ace Previews | NO BF Giron | - | -0.02 | -0.8% | Hub | Other | 49.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 05 Mar 06:00 | Ace Previews | Oksana Selekhmeteva | 1.99 | +0.09 | +4.4% | Hub | Other | 54.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 05 Mar 00:30 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | +0.28 | +11.3% | Hub | Other | 51.0% | BET | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 04 Mar 22:30 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | War Zone | 1.60 | -0.45 | -28.3% | Sky | Harness | 34.2% | SKIP | WON +$0.60 | |
| 04 Mar 22:21 | Michael Tye | 2. Extravaganza | 1.97 | +0.22 | +11.2% | Hub | Other | 62.0% | BET | WON +$0.97 | |
| 04 Mar 22:02 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Leota | 1.55 | -0.84 | -54.1% | Sky | Harness | 10.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Mar 21:43 | Darren and Brett Carroll | 2. Always Skye High | 8.60 | -0.05 | -0.6% | Hub | Horse | 11.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Mar 21:38 | Michael Tye | 6. Prison Break | 4.50 | +1.35 | +29.9% | Hub | Other | 52.1% | BET | WON +$0.53 | |
| 04 Mar 21:33 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Vodka En Ice | 3.05 | -0.45 | -14.7% | Sky | Harness | 18.1% | SKIP | WON +$2.05 | |
| 04 Mar 21:30 | Nick Noonan | Montezulu | 4.60 | +0.25 | +5.4% | RC | Horse | 27.1% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Mar 21:30 | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Montezulu | 4.90 | -0.39 | -7.9% | Sky | Horse | 12.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Mar 21:03 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Impermissible | 1.50 | -0.63 | -41.9% | Sky | Harness | 24.8% | SKIP | WON +$0.50 | |
| 04 Mar 21:00 | Nick Noonan | Mastretta | 2.45 | -0.38 | -15.5% | RC | Horse | 25.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Mar 21:00 | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Mastretta | 2.42 | -0.21 | -8.8% | Sky | Horse | 32.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Mar 21:00 | Steve Christie | 3. Mastretta | 2.36 | -0.14 | -5.8% | Hub | Horse | 36.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Mar 20:57 | Michael Tye | 2. Over Achiever | 1.31 | -0.19 | -14.4% | Hub | Other | 62.0% | SKIP | WON +$0.31 | |
| 04 Mar 20:43 | Darren and Brett Carroll | 5. Telern Lofty | 2.52 | -0.69 | -27.3% | Hub | Horse | 12.4% | SKIP | WON +$1.52 | |
| 04 Mar 20:40 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Swift Talker | 3.50 | +0.09 | +2.5% | Sky | Horse | 31.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Mar 20:40 | Darren McAullay | Swift Talker | 3.40 | +0.62 | +18.3% | RC | Horse | 47.7% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Mar 20:40 | Scott Embry | Swift Talker | 3.40 | +0.74 | +21.7% | RC | Horse | 51.1% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Mar 20:40 | Rylie Morgan | Swift Talker | 3.70 | +0.42 | +11.3% | RC | Horse | 38.3% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Mar 20:37 | Michael Tye | 2. White Crest | 2.58 | +0.41 | +15.8% | Hub | Other | 54.5% | BET | WON +$1.88 | |
| 04 Mar 20:32 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | The Rizzler | 1.35 | -0.37 | -27.6% | Sky | Harness | 46.5% | SKIP | WON +$0.35 | |
| 04 Mar 20:20 | Steve Christie | 11. Bright Night | 9.60 | -0.09 | -0.9% | Hub | Horse | 9.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Mar 20:20 | Nick Noonan | Wolf Junior | 2.05 | -0.82 | -39.9% | RC | Horse | 8.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Mar 20:20 | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Wolf Junior | 1.99 | -0.01 | -0.4% | Sky | Horse | 49.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 04 Mar 20:12 | Darren and Brett Carroll | 7. Charlie Walker | 2.92 | -0.47 | -16.0% | Hub | Horse | 18.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4 (Isotonic, threshold 0.20), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3 (Platt), Green = v4 (Isotonic).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (v4) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |