| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 16 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.Mar 04:44* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Warren R4 | Call Me Terry | 1.90 | SKIP 40% | TRACK |
| 21.Mar 04:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Warren R3 | Fantasy Crowned | 5.50 | SKIP 27% | TRACK |
| 21.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Jcf Contracting Su... | Odin's Eye | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Evergreen Turf Sou... | Autumn Break | 2.45 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 16:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R10 | Fortyhours | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 16:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R9 | I Am Wilma | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 16:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R8 | Captain Perfect | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 16:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R7 | Always Be Blakey | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 16:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R6 | Bulletproof Boy | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 16:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R5 | Hilltop Hugh | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 16:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R4 | Kyvalley Michael | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 16:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R3 | Wild Card | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 16:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R2 | Galaxy Lass | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 16:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R1 | Vincenzo | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 14:44* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Broomie R3 | Fantasy Crowned | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 14:44* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Muster Dog Hcp R4 | Call Me Terry | 2.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Southside Cranbour... | Jewel Of Heaven | 2.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | So Vogue | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Radical Dude | 1.28 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Queen Amanjena | 3.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Le Notre | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Southside Cranbour... | Theology | 3.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Let It Beel | 1.65 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Southside Cranbour... | Radical Dude | 1.28 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Southside Cranbour... | Noble Falcon | 11.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Southside Cranbour... | Queen Amanjena | 3.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Finance Shogun | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Titan Of Choice | 9.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Southside Cranbour... | Finance Shogun | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 20.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Southside Cranbour... | Pasifae | 19.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 0W-8L | P/L: -$8.00
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar 14:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SCONE R2 1400m Hcap | 2. Hammoon Sensation | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ladbrokes Spring Hosted P... | Designer Dreamer | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | CARLTON DRAUGHT SHOWCASE ... | Marty Mcfly | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | ADRIAN LEDGER MEMORIAL SH... | Untethered | 4.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | BARRIER REEF POOLS Fillie... | She Moves Too | 3.35 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 09:35 | BF | Matt Reid | Launceston (AUS) 20th Mar | Earendel | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 09:05 | BF | Sam Hyland | Albury (AUS) 20th Mar | Sargeant Stan | 5.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 09:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Scone (AUS) 20th Mar | Zucchero | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 3W-16L | P/L: -$0.00
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar 20:05 | BF | Craig Morrison | WESTERN RACEPIX HANDICAP | Pure Chino | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 17:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ru... | Mackay (AUS) 19th Mar | Scrub Chain | 5.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$4.20 |
| 19 Mar 17:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Mackay (AUS) 19th Mar | Answering | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 15:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Mackay (AUS) 19th Mar | Belvedere Miss | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Cr... | Albany (AUS) 19th Mar | Top Of The Pops | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Cr... | Albany (AUS) 19th Mar | Pure Chino | 8.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GOSFORD R4 1600m CL1 | 4. Gallahop | 9.00 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 19 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Mackay (AUS) 19th Mar | Blessed Boom | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sam Hyland | Albury (AUS) 19th Mar | Star Bling | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 09:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Albany (AUS) 19th Mar | Pure Chino | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 18:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CAULFIELD R8 1000m Hcap | 2. Excess | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 18:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CAULFIELD R8 1000m Hcap | 3. Along The River | 7.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 17:05 | BF | Scott Embry | STATEWIDE OIL HANDICAP | Tycoon Dreamer | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 17:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ASCOT R1 1400m CL3 | 2. Extreme Love | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 14:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | ENCORE BY MINGARA HANDICA... | Maybe Moet | 2.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 14:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | SUNSET SOIREE 20 MARCH QT... | Geitz | 6.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | WYONG R3 1625m Mdn | 10. Lilac Girl | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | BECOME A BRC MEMBER Maide... | Koolibah | 4.60 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.60 |
| 18 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | COAST COMMUNITY NEWS HAND... | Think Itz You | 9.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$8.20 |
| 18 Mar 06:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Caulfield (AUS) 18th Mar | Sparkling Luck | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.Mar 21:49 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R7 | Illusory Feat | 3.85 | SKIP 21% | WON |
| 20.Mar 21:36 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R8 | Iffycould | 5.00 | SKIP 30% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 21:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R8 | Captains Knock | 1.30 | SKIP 50% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 21:14 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R6 | Oakley Shard | 1.90 | SKIP 38% | WON |
| 20.Mar 21:02 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R7 | Perola | 4.80 | SKIP 20% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 21:02 | SEN | Matt Reid | Launceston R7 | Earendel | 6.50 | BET 26% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 20:40 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R5 | Threentwo | 1.80 | SKIP 40% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 20:30 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R6 | Azonto | 4.20 | SKIP 19% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 20:22 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R7 | Ima Boxa | 1.20 | SKIP 42% | WON |
| 20.Mar 20:10 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R4 | Jimmy Bling | 3.15 | SKIP 25% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 20:00 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R5 | Designer Dreamer | 6.50 | BET 24% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 19:52 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R6 | Rays Redemption | 3.15 | SKIP 27% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 19:45 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Cranbourne R5 | 2. Finance Shogun | 4.98 | SKIP 22% | WON |
| 20.Mar 19:40 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R3 | Malibu Dream | 3.35 | SKIP 25% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 19:30 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R4 | Merlin Beach | 1.60 | SKIP 47% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 19:22 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R5 | American Boxer | 3.85 | SKIP 18% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 19:10 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R2 | Stillyourshot | 2.20 | SKIP 20% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 19:00 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R3 | Flying Concello | 4.50 | SKIP 23% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 18:52 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R4 | Clara Rocks | 1.65 | SKIP 40% | WON |
| 20.Mar 18:45 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Cranbourne R3 | 5. So Vogue | 4.51 | SKIP 20% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 18:40 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R1 | Moonshiner | 1.95 | SKIP 34% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 18:30 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R2 | Unfiltered | 3.10 | SKIP 27% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 18:30 | SEN | Matt Reid | Launceston R2 | California Flyer | 2.15 | SKIP 35% | LOST |
| 20.Mar 18:22 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R3 | Miss Blue Stork | 1.40 | SKIP 37% | WON |
| 20.Mar 18:19 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Ipswich R8 | Canara | 2.45 | SKIP 58% | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 961 | 221W-717L | -$176.55 | -18.4% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 9,466 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 15 Mar 23:21 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.932
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.348 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.290 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.257 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.238 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.174 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.114 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.112 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.105 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.082 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.073 |
|
| Form Score | +0.054 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.050 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.039 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.039 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.034 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.034 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.022 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.021 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.019 |
|
| Barrier | +0.011 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.007 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1161 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1125 | 20% | 22% | +2% |
| 25-30% | 516 | 27% | 28% | +0% |
| 30-35% | 2719 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2306 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 638 | 44% | 32% | -12% |
| 50%+ | 907 | 60% | 43% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 37 | BET: 3 | SKIP: 34 | Settled: 33 | Avg EV: -0.01 | Accuracy: 69.7% | Brier: 0.172 vs Mkt 0.158 (-0.014)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 16:43 | Shayne Montgomery | Call Me Terry | 1.90 | -0.24 | -12.6% | SB | Horse | 40.0% | SKIP | pending | |
| 21 Mar 16:15 | Betfair AFL Model | GWS | 1.50 | -0.29 | -19.0% | BET | Other | 47.7% | SKIP | pending | |
| 21 Mar 15:59 | Shayne Montgomery | Fantasy Crowned | 5.50 | +0.48 | +8.7% | SB | Horse | 26.8% | SKIP | pending | |
| 21 Mar 15:30 | Jared Timms | NO BF Treasurethe Moment | - | -0.39 | -19.5% | LB | Horse | 30.5% | SKIP | pending | |
| 20 Mar 21:49 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Illusory Feat | 3.85 | -0.20 | -5.2% | Sky | Harness | 20.8% | SKIP | WON +$2.85 | |
| 20 Mar 21:36 | Nick Noonan | Iffycould | 5.00 | +0.49 | +9.8% | RC | Horse | 29.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 21:30 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Captains Knock | 1.30 | -0.35 | -26.6% | Sky | Harness | 50.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 21:14 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Oakley Shard | 1.90 | -0.27 | -14.1% | Sky | Harness | 38.5% | SKIP | WON +$0.90 | |
| 20 Mar 21:02 | Matt Reid | Earendel | 6.50 | +0.68 | +10.5% | SEN | Horse | 25.9% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 21:02 | Nick Noonan | Perola | 4.80 | -0.03 | -0.6% | RC | Horse | 20.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 20:40 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Threentwo | 1.80 | -0.28 | -15.5% | Sky | Harness | 40.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 20:30 | Nick Noonan | Azonto | 4.20 | -0.21 | -5.1% | RC | Horse | 18.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 20:22 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Ima Boxa | 1.20 | -0.49 | -40.9% | Sky | Harness | 42.4% | SKIP | WON +$0.20 | |
| 20 Mar 20:10 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Jimmy Bling | 3.15 | -0.20 | -6.4% | Sky | Harness | 25.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 20:00 | Nick Noonan | Designer Dreamer | 6.50 | +0.57 | +8.8% | RC | Horse | 24.2% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 19:52 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Rays Redemption | 3.15 | -0.15 | -4.9% | Sky | Harness | 26.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 19:45 | Betfair Rated Model | 2. Finance Shogun | 4.98 | +0.07 | +1.5% | BF | Horse | 21.5% | SKIP | WON +$3.98 | |
| 20 Mar 19:40 | Betfair AFL Model | Western Bulldogs | 1.88 | -0.18 | -9.5% | BET | Other | 43.7% | SKIP | WON +$0.88 | |
| 20 Mar 19:40 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Malibu Dream | 3.35 | -0.16 | -4.6% | Sky | Harness | 25.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 19:30 | Nick Noonan | Merlin Beach | 1.60 | -0.25 | -15.3% | RC | Horse | 47.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 19:22 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | American Boxer | 3.85 | -0.30 | -7.7% | Sky | Harness | 18.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 19:10 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Stillyourshot | 2.20 | -0.56 | -25.7% | Sky | Harness | 19.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 19:00 | Nick Noonan | Flying Concello | 4.50 | +0.06 | +1.3% | RC | Horse | 23.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 18:52 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Clara Rocks | 1.65 | -0.34 | -20.7% | Sky | Harness | 39.9% | SKIP | WON +$0.65 | |
| 20 Mar 18:45 | Betfair Rated Model | 5. So Vogue | 4.51 | -0.11 | -2.4% | BF | Horse | 19.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 18:40 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Moonshiner | 1.95 | -0.35 | -17.8% | Sky | Harness | 33.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 18:30 | Matt Reid | California Flyer | 2.15 | -0.24 | -11.1% | SEN | Horse | 35.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 18:30 | Nick Noonan | Unfiltered | 3.10 | -0.16 | -5.2% | RC | Horse | 27.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 18:22 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Miss Blue Stork | 1.40 | -0.48 | -34.5% | Sky | Harness | 36.9% | SKIP | WON +$0.40 | |
| 20 Mar 18:19 | Rebecca Hill | Canara | 2.45 | +0.42 | +17.1% | RC | Horse | 57.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 18:00 | Nick Noonan | Light Work | 12.00 | +1.37 | +11.4% | RC | Horse | 19.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 17:48 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | My Ultimate Sassy | 2.80 | -0.42 | -15.0% | Sky | Harness | 20.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 17:45 | Betfair Rated Model | 5. Wyandra | 4.42 | +0.02 | +0.6% | BF | Horse | 23.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 17:40 | Rebecca Hill | She Moves Too | 3.40 | +0.84 | +24.6% | RC | Horse | 54.0% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 17:30 | Chris Camilleri | Rumours Abound | 6.00 | +0.45 | +7.5% | RC | Horse | 24.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 17:15 | Shayne Montgomery | Zucchero | 4.40 | +0.44 | +9.9% | SB | Horse | 32.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 20 Mar 17:15 | Miles Pfitzner | Zucchero | 3.80 | +0.28 | +7.3% | SEN | Horse | 33.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |