| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 13 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.Mar 03:44* | Sportsbet | Ian Humphries | Nowra R3 | Stern Reminder | 2.00 | SKIP 27% | TRACK |
| 16.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Andre Kassay | Pipeline Fabricato... | Skydream | 3.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 16.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Andre Kassay | RNone None | The Last King | 2.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 16:56* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | River Frost | 3.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 12:56* | Racing Com | John Kelton | Sportsbet Port Lin... | I Need A Drink | 3.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 12:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Alfano | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 12:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Strawberry Swing | 3.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 12:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Reiby Princess | 2.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 12:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Vasilias | 2.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 12:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Broadway Lane | 2.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 12:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Kova | 4.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 12:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Riverside Rock | 8.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 12:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | My Mate Sonny | 2.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 12:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | I Need A Drink | 4.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Magic Defense | 3.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Mougenot | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Highstrung | 2.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Midnight Hustle | 1.85 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Mods | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Swan Hill R... | Just Landed | 9.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Swan Hill R... | Tatsu | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Swan Hill R... | Symbol Of State | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Swan Hill R... | Crack A Deel | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Swan Hill R... | Dry Fire | 4.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Swan Hill R... | Ideas Galore | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Swan Hill R... | Tatsu | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Swan Hill R... | Bar La La | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Swan Hill R... | Easy Red | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Swan Hill R... | Where's My Sock | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 15.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Swan Hill R... | Midnight Glow | 2.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 2W-6L | P/L: -$1.22
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 12:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Grafton (AUS) 15th Mar | Mr Plume | 3.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 15 Mar 11:36 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 15th Mar | Boom Bunny | 3.75 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 15 Mar 11:36 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 15th Mar | Golden Octavian | 4.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 15 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | RAY WHITE YAMBA BENCHMARK... | Mr Plume | 3.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 15 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | LADBROKES PUNTER ASSIST B... | Kobayastar | 3.55 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 15 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | YAMBA GOLF & COUNTRY CLUB... | Pressalong | 4.10 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.10 |
| 15 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | FITTED GOLF 2YO MAIDEN PL... | Ashkirk | 5.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 15 Mar 11:35 | BF | Miles Pfitzner | Yarra Valley (AUS) 15th M... | Sonic Bender | 2.68 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.68 |
| 15 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 15th Mar | Ellis Beach | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 14W-51L | P/L: -$17.22
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 16:05 | BF | Harry White | RACING NSW PROVINCIAL-MI... | Hawker Hall | 3.25 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 14:05 | BF | Scott Embry | GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP | Rolling Ruler | 5.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 13:35 | BF | Scott Embry | DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP | Royal Toronado | 2.42 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.42 |
| 14 Mar 13:35 | BF | Scott Embry | CROSER SPARKLING HANDICAP | Desert Waves | 4.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 13:35 | BF | Darren McAullay | DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP | Asif | 3.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 13:35 | BF | Darren McAullay | GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP | Rolling Ruler | 5.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 12:35 | BF | Ben Asgari | The TBV VOBIS Platinum Sh... | Knurl | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Ascot (AUS) 14th Mar | Lucky I Am | 4.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 12:35 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Cylinder VOBIS Gold Dash | Rohesia | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Ascot (AUS) 14th Mar | Happy Dance | 4.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Ascot (AUS) 14th Mar | Asif | 3.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 12:35 | BF | Heath Pope | Morphettville (AUS) 14th ... | Scandalize | 4.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 12:06 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Avenel Equine Hospital VO... | Teine Aulelei | 4.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 12:05 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Sportsbet Peter Young Sta... | Buckaroo | 2.76 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 12:05 | BF | Tony Kneebone | The TBV VOBIS Platinum Sh... | Knurl | 8.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 12:05 | BF | Ben Asgari | Sportsbet Peter Young Sta... | Birdman | 3.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.20 |
| 14 Mar 12:05 | BF | Ben Asgari | Cylinder VOBIS Gold Dash | Rohesia | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 12:05 | BF | Travis Noonan | Rosehill (AUS) 14th Mar | Wootton Verni | 2.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Nelson | HAPPY BIRTHDAY LOUIE BENC... | Cool Panels | 6.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$5.40 |
| 14 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | NATASHA STAKES | Masmelo | 4.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.80 |
| 14 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP | Royal Toronado | 2.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.40 |
| 14 Mar 11:36 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Barastoc Country Mile Ser... | Sir Atlas | 3.25 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.25 |
| 14 Mar 11:36 | BF | Ben Asgari | Avenel Equine Hospital VO... | Teine Aulelei | 4.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 11:36 | BF | David Strehlau | Sportsbet Peter Young Sta... | Buckaroo | 2.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 11:36 | BF | Brent Zerafa | The TBV VOBIS Platinum Sh... | Knurl | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 11:35 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Cylinder VOBIS Gold Dash | Rohesia | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | MC POLYTRACK HANDICAP | Earth God | 6.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 11:35 | BF | Ben Asgari | Two Bays Farm VOBIS Gold ... | Veight | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 11:35 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Sportsbet Peter Young Sta... | Birdman | 3.05 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.05 |
| 14 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP | Tycoon Harry | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | CAMPBELL CONSTRUCTIONS BE... | State In Texas | 2.18 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.18 |
| 14 Mar 10:35 | BF | Miles Pfitzner | Caulfield (AUS) 14th Mar | Buckaroo | 2.92 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sam Hyland | Morphettville (AUS) 14th ... | Nextonixs | 2.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 14 Mar 09:35 | BF | Sam Hyland | Caulfield (AUS) 14th Mar | Ndola | 3.15 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 18:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ladbrokes Mega Multi BM60... | Novalargo | 3.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 18:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | House of Arras Open Handi... | In The Ocean | 2.04 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 17:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Geraldton (AUS) 13th Mar | Safe Hustle | 8.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 14:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Mount Gambier (AUS) 13th ... | Runway Ruler | 4.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 13:35 | BF | Darren McAullay | DIAB ENGINEERING PTY LTD ... | Snippety Legend | 2.54 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.54 |
| 13 Mar 13:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Geraldton (AUS) 13th Mar | Rubick Delight | 3.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.90 |
| 13 Mar 13:05 | BF | Darren McAullay | OCEAN AIR CUSTOM AIRCONDI... | Flaming Dragon | 4.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.40 |
| 13 Mar 13:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Geraldton (AUS) 13th Mar | Snippety Legend | 2.54 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.54 |
| 13 Mar 13:05 | BF | Darren McAullay | HTD SURVEYORS & PLANNERS ... | Cateran | 3.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Geraldton (AUS) 13th Mar | Cateran | 3.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Geraldton (AUS) 13th Mar | Flaming Dragon | 4.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.40 |
| 13 Mar 12:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Bundoran | 2.42 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:36 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ladbrokes Big Bets Maiden | Unfiltered | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | ASSETT PROFESSIONAL SERVI... | Monte Kate | 4.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:36 | BF | Daniel Nuttall | Carlton Draught Maiden Pl... | Jamaica Star | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rebecca Hill | HAYMES PAINT Class 2 Hand... | Bit Of Grunt | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | DIAB ENGINEERING PTY LTD ... | Snippety Legend | 2.30 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.30 |
| 13 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | YALUMBA FAMILY WINEMAKERS... | Johnny | 2.26 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | HTD SURVEYORS & PLANNERS ... | Cateran | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | BARRY VANDENBERGH KEMBLA ... | Dolce Dior | 4.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | MITCHELL & BROWN RETRAVIS... | Moorumbine | 9.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | PFD FOOD SERVICES KEMBLA ... | Spicy Lu | 3.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Bundoran | 2.42 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | OCEAN VIEWS RESORT Class ... | Hey Daisy | 2.74 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Bonfidelity | 3.15 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Lord Of The Sun | 4.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Iron Man | 4.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Speedy Pete | 5.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 07:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Lord Of The Sun | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 07:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Bonfidelity | 4.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 07:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Iron Man | 4.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.Mar 20:30 | Racing Com | Richard Bell | York R7 | Miss Wall Street | 6.00 | SKIP 6% | LOST |
| 15.Mar 19:55 | Racing Com | Richard Bell | York R6 | Sky River | 5.00 | SKIP 9% | LOST |
| 15.Mar 19:20 | Racing Com | Richard Bell | York R5 | October Rox | 4.00 | SKIP 12% | LOST |
| 15.Mar 18:50 | Racing Com | Richard Bell | York R4 | Scream | 2.90 | SKIP 17% | WON |
| 15.Mar 18:20 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | York R3 | 3. Saucisson | 6.14 | SKIP 7% | LOST |
| 15.Mar 18:20 | Racing Com | Richard Bell | York R3 | Gold Enigma | 1.95 | SKIP 62% | LOST |
| 15.Mar 17:50 | Racing Com | Richard Bell | York R2 | Angel Like You | 5.00 | SKIP 6% | LOST |
| 15.Mar 17:40 | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Townsville R8 | Golden Octavian | 4.50 | SKIP 9% | LOST |
| 15.Mar 17:40 | Sky | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Townsville R8 | Golden Octavian | 4.70 | SKIP 21% | LOST |
| 15.Mar 17:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Missen | Dubbo R9 | Miss Capricorn | 8.40 | SKIP 6% | LOST |
| 15.Mar 17:19 | Sky | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Hobart R6 | Oh No Never Again | 1.02 | SKIP 33% | WON |
| 15.Mar 17:15 | SEN | Nick Noonan | Swan Hill R7 | Second Fix | 8.50 | - | WON |
| 15.Mar 17:10 | Racing Com | Richard Bell | York R1 | Pretty Devine | 6.50 | - | LOST |
| 15.Mar 17:10 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | York R1 | 2. On The Full | 7.97 | - | LOST |
| 15.Mar 09:14* | Sportsbet | Julie Rowland | Port Lincoln (AUS)... | Lava Lad | 7.00 | SKIP 10% | LOST |
| 15.Mar 08:44* | Sportsbet | Ian Humphries | York R7 | Prince Harrison | 7.50 | SKIP 8% | LOST |
| 12.Mar 10:05* | Betfair Model | Betfair AFL Model | Melbourne v St Kil... | Melbourne | 1.77 | - | WON |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 923 | 218W-685L | -$162.27 | -17.6% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 9,197 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 15 Mar 23:21 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.932
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.348 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.290 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.257 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.238 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.174 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.114 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.112 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.105 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.082 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.073 |
|
| Form Score | +0.054 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.050 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.039 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.039 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.034 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.034 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.022 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.021 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.019 |
|
| Barrier | +0.011 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.007 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1161 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1020 | 20% | 24% | +3% |
| 25-30% | 445 | 27% | 28% | +1% |
| 30-35% | 2687 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2272 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 615 | 44% | 31% | -13% |
| 50%+ | 900 | 60% | 43% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 14 | BET: 0 | SKIP: 14 | Settled: 13 | Avg EV: -0.44 | Accuracy: 84.6% | Brier: 0.126 vs Mkt 0.080 (-0.046)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar 15:20 | Ian Humphries | Stern Reminder | 2.00 | -0.46 | -22.9% | SB | Horse | 27.1% | SKIP | pending | |
| 15 Mar 20:30 | Richard Bell | Miss Wall Street | 6.00 | -0.62 | -10.3% | RC | Horse | 6.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 15 Mar 20:30 | Ian Humphries | Prince Harrison | 7.50 | -0.42 | -5.5% | SB | Horse | 7.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 15 Mar 19:55 | Richard Bell | Sky River | 5.00 | -0.55 | -11.0% | RC | Horse | 9.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 15 Mar 19:20 | Richard Bell | October Rox | 4.00 | -0.52 | -12.9% | RC | Horse | 12.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 15 Mar 18:50 | Richard Bell | Scream | 2.90 | -0.51 | -17.5% | RC | Horse | 16.9% | SKIP | WON +$1.90 | |
| 15 Mar 18:20 | Betfair Rated Model | 3. Saucisson | 6.14 | -0.58 | -9.4% | BF | Horse | 6.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 15 Mar 18:20 | Richard Bell | Gold Enigma | 1.95 | +0.22 | +11.2% | RC | Horse | 62.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 15 Mar 17:50 | Richard Bell | Angel Like You | 5.00 | -0.68 | -13.7% | RC | Horse | 6.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 15 Mar 17:45 | Julie Rowland | Lava Lad | 7.00 | -0.27 | -3.9% | SB | Horse | 10.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 15 Mar 17:40 | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Golden Octavian | 4.70 | -0.02 | -0.5% | Sky | Horse | 20.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 15 Mar 17:40 | Chris Nelson | Golden Octavian | 4.50 | -0.58 | -12.9% | RC | Horse | 9.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 15 Mar 17:30 | Sky Racing - Dan Missen | Miss Capricorn | 8.40 | -0.47 | -5.6% | Sky | Horse | 6.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 15 Mar 17:19 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Oh No Never Again | 1.02 | -0.66 | -65.0% | Sky | Harness | 33.1% | SKIP | WON +$0.02 |
Solid = v4 (Isotonic, threshold 0.20), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3 (Platt), Green = v4/v5 (Isotonic).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.20). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4/v5 decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (v4) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |