+$43.41
Total P/L
| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 17 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.Mar 16:35 | Payload | thaylock | - | Dubai Honour | - | SKIP 30% | TRACK |
| 28.Mar 05:14* | Sportsbet | Brendan Tupper | Flemington (AUS) 2... | Way To The Stars | 6.50 | - | TRACK |
| 28.Mar 04:44* | Sportsbet | Paul Richards | Flemington R8 | Apulia | 10.00 | BET 22% | TRACK |
| 28.Mar 03:44* | Sportsbet | John Barker | Flemington R7 | Paradise Storm | 5.50 | SKIP 21% | TRACK |
| 28.Mar 03:44* | Sportsbet | Paul Richards | Flemington R7 | Litzdeel | 2.40 | SKIP 32% | TRACK |
| 28.Mar 02:14* | Sportsbet | Brendan Tupper | Flemington R4 | Moor Mumm | 7.00 | SKIP 19% | TRACK |
| 28.Mar 01:14* | Sportsbet | John Barker | Flemington R2 | Cafe Au Lait | 4.80 | SKIP 29% | TRACK |
| 28.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Mark Wise | Ike Kempton Memori... | Sheeza Sheila | 6.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Mark Wise | Swan Draught Narro... | Becalotti | 10.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Cranbour... | Tactfull | 17.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | So Suave | 3.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Cranbour... | Eco Force | 3.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Impulsive Reaction | 1.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Lady Sadler | 2.25 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Parvenu | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Sunbliss | 4.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Cranbour... | Volatile | 7.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Cranbour... | Lethal Thoughts | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Cranbour... | Parvenu | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Hollerasaurous | 7.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Cranbour... | Impulsive Reaction | 1.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Caffettiera | 2.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Cranbour... | Sunbliss | 4.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R6 | Them's The Breaks | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R1 | Khaleesi's Dream | 2.35 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Toowoomba R2 | Let'sfacethemusic | 4.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 08:14* | Sportsbet | Scott McDonell | Designer Coolrooms... | Just Jenni | 2.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 10:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | ALBION PARK R8 | Laydownluna | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Paul Richards | Australian Cup R8 | Apulia | 10.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Brendan Tupper | Glorious Goodwood ... | Moor Mumm | 11.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 1W-7L | P/L: -$3.60
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar 19:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CRANBOURNE R4 1000m Hcap | 4. Reasonable Point | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Mar 13:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Muswellbrook (AUS) 27th M... | Hellsing | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Mar 12:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Muswellbrook (AUS) 27th M... | King Larry | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Mar 12:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Muswellbrook (AUS) 27th M... | Favour The Bold | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Mar 11:35 | BF | Ric McIntosh | Otis Foundation Marong Cu... | Customer Service | 4.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.40 |
| 27 Mar 11:35 | BF | Damian Watson | Cranbourne (AUS) 27th Mar | Hollerasaurous | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | MNP SECURITY BENCHMARK 78... | Muschialli | 6.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Mar 10:35 | BF | Matt Reid | Launceston (AUS) 27th Mar | Symphony Queen | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 4W-15L | P/L: +$2.61
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Mar 19:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | PAKENHAM R6 1400m Hcap | 3. Gellhorn | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 16:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | HAWKESBURY R7 2000m Hcap | 1. Associate | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 14:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | IPSWICH R4 1350m CL5 | 4. Nondisclosure | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 12:05 | BF | Ric McIntosh | Whalers Hotel BM62 Handic... | Kingsford | 4.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | HAWKESBURY R4 1100m Mdn | 4. Liberty Calls | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Whalers Hotel BM62 Handic... | Kingsford | 4.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 11:35 | BF | Ric McIntosh | Fresha Fruit Juices Maide... | Karburan | 3.65 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.65 |
| 26 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | GREAT NORTHERN BENCHMARK ... | Cantarito | 4.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 11:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Warrnambool (AUS) 26th Ma... | Miss Tallchief | 5.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | VOODOO RANGER CUP CLASS 1... | My Proclama | 8.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 11:05 | BF | Cam Luke | Ipswich (AUS) 26th Mar | Funhouse | 6.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 10:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Cairns (AUS) 26th Mar | Time To Prophet | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 10:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Cairns (AUS) 26th Mar | Ellis Beach | 9.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$8.40 |
| 25 Mar 15:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | EAGLE FARM R3 1200m 3yo | 2. Delicious Derek | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | SWAN DRAUGHT HANDICAP | Eternal Wine | 2.56 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.56 |
| 25 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | SHARE BETS WITH TABTOUCH ... | Jolson Al | 3.15 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | SKY RACING Class 3 Plate | Heavenly Love | 6.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | LIQUOR BARONS PLATE | Dixie Doo | 6.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$5.00 |
| 25 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Belmont (AUS) 25th Mar | Truly Gallant | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.Mar 22:20 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Menangle R9 | Dougs Flame | 1.96 | SKIP 25% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 22:02 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R5 | Beau Steele | 1.01 | SKIP 39% | WON |
| 27.Mar 21:49 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Menangle R8 | I Am Hellbound | 2.06 | SKIP 33% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 21:29 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R4 | The Rascal | 1.01 | SKIP 35% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 21:12 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Menangle R7 | Can Be A Ruebe | 1.85 | SKIP 32% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 21:00 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Launceston R8 | 5. Sister Royal | 4.82 | SKIP 23% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 21:00 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R8 | Hartman | 1.90 | SKIP 29% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 20:55 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R3 | Lulu Lucifer | 1.01 | SKIP 43% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 20:45 | SEN | Damian Watson | Cranbourne R7 | Hollerasaurous | 7.50 | BET 25% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 20:40 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Menangle R6 | Perfect Stranger | 2.02 | SKIP 35% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 20:30 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Launceston R7 | 2. Night Invader | 3.35 | SKIP 31% | WON |
| 27.Mar 20:30 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R7 | Night Invader | 2.80 | SKIP 21% | WON |
| 27.Mar 20:22 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R2 | Jimmy Bling | 1.01 | SKIP 40% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 20:15 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Cranbourne R6 | 9. Just Jenni | 3.31 | SKIP 24% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 20:10 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Menangle R5 | Oakie Smokeshow | 3.65 | SKIP 27% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 19:52 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R1 | Queen Lilibet | 1.01 | SKIP 45% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 19:38 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Menangle R4 | Foxfire Easton | 3.65 | SKIP 26% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 19:30 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R5 | Antheia | 2.35 | SKIP 37% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 19:20 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Toowoomba R8 | Muschialli | 7.00 | BET 31% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 19:15 | SEN | Damian Watson | Cranbourne R4 | Croatian Art | 6.50 | SKIP 21% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 19:15 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Cranbourne R4 | 4. Reasonable Point | 8.05 | BET 19% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 19:10 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Menangle R3 | Pinseeker | 2.94 | SKIP 18% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 19:00 | SEN | Matt Reid | Launceston R4 | Wild Nights | 41.00 | SKIP 19% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 19:00 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R4 | In Your Dreams | 3.00 | SKIP 35% | LOST |
| 27.Mar 18:50 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Toowoomba R7 | Battlefield | 2.60 | SKIP 30% | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 1007 | 224W-759L | -$187.52 | -18.6% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 10,004 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 15 Mar 23:21 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.932
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.348 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.290 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.257 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.238 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.174 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.114 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.112 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.105 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.082 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.073 |
|
| Form Score | +0.054 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.050 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.039 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.039 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.034 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.034 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.022 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.021 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.019 |
|
| Barrier | +0.011 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.007 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1162 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1381 | 21% | 22% | +2% |
| 25-30% | 624 | 27% | 26% | -1% |
| 30-35% | 2781 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2341 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 674 | 44% | 33% | -12% |
| 50%+ | 933 | 60% | 42% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 50 | BET: 4 | SKIP: 46 | Settled: 43 | Avg EV: +0.12 | Accuracy: 81.4% | Brier: 0.128 vs Mkt 0.203 (+0.075)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar 16:35 | thaylock | NO BF Dubai Honour | - | -0.41 | -20.4% | BF | Other | 29.6% | SKIP | pending | |
| 28 Mar 16:15 | Paul Richards | Apulia | 10.00 | +1.24 | +12.4% | SB | Horse | 22.4% | BET | pending | |
| 28 Mar 15:40 | Paul Richards | Litzdeel | 2.40 | -0.22 | -9.3% | SB | Horse | 32.3% | SKIP | pending | |
| 28 Mar 15:40 | John Barker | Paradise Storm | 5.50 | +0.18 | +3.3% | SB | Horse | 21.5% | SKIP | pending | |
| 28 Mar 13:55 | Brendan Tupper | Moor Mumm | 7.00 | +0.34 | +4.8% | SB | Horse | 19.1% | SKIP | pending | |
| 28 Mar 12:45 | John Barker | Cafe Au Lait | 4.80 | +0.40 | +8.4% | SB | Horse | 29.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 28 Mar 12:35 | Betfair AFL Model | Brisbane | 1.63 | -0.26 | -16.0% | BET | Other | 45.4% | SKIP | pending | |
| 27 Mar 22:20 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Dougs Flame | 1.96 | -0.50 | -25.7% | Sky | Harness | 25.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 22:02 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Beau Steele | 1.01 | -0.61 | -60.2% | Sky | Harness | 38.8% | SKIP | WON +$0.01 | |
| 27 Mar 21:49 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | I Am Hellbound | 2.06 | -0.33 | -16.0% | Sky | Harness | 32.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 21:29 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | The Rascal | 1.01 | -0.64 | -63.8% | Sky | Harness | 35.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 21:12 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Can Be A Ruebe | 1.85 | -0.41 | -22.3% | Sky | Harness | 31.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 21:00 | Nick Noonan | Hartman | 1.90 | -0.46 | -24.0% | RC | Horse | 28.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 21:00 | Betfair Rated Model | 5. Sister Royal | 4.82 | +0.13 | +2.6% | BF | Horse | 23.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 20:55 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Lulu Lucifer | 1.01 | -0.56 | -55.8% | Sky | Harness | 43.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 20:45 | Damian Watson | Hollerasaurous | 7.50 | +0.90 | +12.0% | SEN | Horse | 25.4% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 20:40 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Perfect Stranger | 2.02 | -0.30 | -14.9% | Sky | Harness | 34.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 20:30 | Nick Noonan | Night Invader | 2.80 | -0.42 | -15.0% | RC | Horse | 20.7% | SKIP | WON +$1.80 | |
| 27 Mar 20:30 | Betfair Rated Model | 2. Night Invader | 3.35 | +0.02 | +0.7% | BF | Horse | 30.5% | SKIP | WON +$2.35 | |
| 27 Mar 20:22 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Jimmy Bling | 1.01 | -0.59 | -58.7% | Sky | Harness | 40.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 20:15 | Betfair Rated Model | 9. Just Jenni | 3.31 | -0.22 | -6.6% | BF | Horse | 23.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 20:15 | Scott McDonell | Just Jenni | 2.70 | -0.35 | -12.8% | SB | Horse | 24.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 20:10 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Oakie Smokeshow | 3.65 | -0.01 | -0.2% | Sky | Harness | 27.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 19:52 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Queen Lilibet | 1.01 | -0.54 | -53.7% | Sky | Harness | 45.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 19:38 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Foxfire Easton | 3.65 | -0.06 | -1.7% | Sky | Harness | 25.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 19:30 | Nick Noonan | Antheia | 2.35 | -0.12 | -5.2% | RC | Horse | 37.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 19:20 | Rebecca Hill | Muschialli | 7.00 | +1.16 | +16.5% | RC | Horse | 30.8% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 19:15 | Best Bets | Caffettiera | 2.80 | -0.19 | -6.7% | SB | Horse | 29.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 19:15 | Betfair Rated Model | 4. Reasonable Point | 8.05 | +0.54 | +6.7% | BF | Horse | 19.1% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 19:15 | Damian Watson | Croatian Art | 6.50 | +0.38 | +5.8% | SEN | Horse | 21.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 19:10 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Pinseeker | 2.94 | -0.46 | -15.7% | Sky | Harness | 18.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 19:00 | Matt Reid | Wild Nights | 41.00 | +6.78 | +16.5% | SEN | Horse | 19.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 19:00 | Nick Noonan | In Your Dreams | 3.00 | +0.04 | +1.2% | RC | Horse | 34.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 18:50 | Adam Williams | Battlefield | 2.70 | -0.19 | -7.0% | SB | Horse | 30.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 18:50 | Rebecca Hill | Battlefield | 2.60 | -0.23 | -8.9% | RC | Horse | 29.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 18:45 | Best Bets | Rudolfina | 3.40 | -0.37 | -10.8% | SB | Horse | 18.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 18:40 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Tukaha | 3.65 | -0.04 | -1.1% | Sky | Harness | 26.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 18:30 | Nick Noonan | Favourite Deputy | 2.15 | -0.26 | -12.1% | RC | Horse | 34.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 18:30 | Betfair Rated Model | 9. Nunkeri | 4.55 | +0.11 | +2.3% | BF | Horse | 24.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 18:30 | Matt Reid | Favourite Deputy | 2.25 | -0.40 | -18.0% | SEN | Horse | 26.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 18:25 | Gaurav Khosla | Struck Gold | 1.50 | -0.31 | -20.9% | RC | Horse | 45.8% | SKIP | WON +$0.50 | |
| 27 Mar 18:20 | Rebecca Hill | Hello Dolly Diva | 4.00 | +0.04 | +1.0% | RC | Horse | 26.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 18:15 | Scott McDonell | Impulsive Reaction | 1.45 | -0.64 | -44.1% | SB | Horse | 24.9% | SKIP | WON +$0.45 | |
| 27 Mar 18:00 | Nick Noonan | Climbeverymountain | 4.00 | +0.02 | +0.4% | RC | Horse | 25.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 17:55 | Gaurav Khosla | Lady Fireball | 17.00 | +2.49 | +14.7% | RC | Horse | 20.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 17:55 | Betfair Rated Model | 2. Carat Time | 3.43 | -0.02 | -0.7% | BF | Horse | 28.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 17:50 | Rebecca Hill | Streak Of Winning | 6.00 | +0.09 | +1.5% | RC | Horse | 18.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 17:50 | Adam Williams | Betterlucknexttime | 12.00 | +1.44 | +12.0% | SB | Horse | 20.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 17:45 | Betfair Rated Model | 3. Kokoro Time | 5.60 | +0.14 | +2.6% | BF | Horse | 20.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Mar 17:45 | Damian Watson | Iftihar | 2.50 | -0.09 | -3.6% | SEN | Horse | 36.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |