+$43.41
Total P/L
| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 17 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Strategy | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01.Apr 03:44* | Sportsbet | Paul Kelly | Ascot R1 | Snitzalatte | 2.50 | SKIP | TRACK |
| 01.Apr 00:14* | Sportsbet | Brendan Tupper | Hosted Pots Mdn Pl... | Bordeaux | 4.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 00:14* | Sportsbet | Brendan Tupper | RNone None | Pray Day | 2.60 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 17:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | RNone None | Wembanyama | 7.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 17:14* | Sportsbet | Joel Marshall | Solutions Matchmak... | Too Darn Stormy | 3.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 17:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | Bisley Workwear R7 | Invincible Thief | 5.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 17:14* | Sportsbet | Paul Kelly | Peters Investments... | Snitzalatte | 2.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 16:04* | Betfair Model | Betfair AFL Model | West Coast Eagles ... | Sydney | 1.26 | SKIP | TRACK |
| 31.Mar 11:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | TOWNSVILLE R2 | Tambo's Sister | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 15:14* | Sportsbet | Julie Rowland | Coopers Brewery Hc... | Morlaix | 4.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 15:14* | Sportsbet | Julie Rowland | Racing Form Mdn Pl... | Jumbo Jet | 2.25 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 15:05* | Betfair Model | Betfair AFL Model | Adelaide Crows v F... | Adelaide | 1.66 | SKIP | TRACK |
| 31.Mar 13:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Park Kilmor... | Makusha | 6.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 12:38* | SEN | Campbell Brown | Kilmore R5 | Hell's Diamond | 2.70 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 12:08* | SEN | Cam Luke | Newcastle R5 | Let's Be Honest | 3.30 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Townsville R3 | She's A Beauty | 1.65 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Park Kilmor... | Meka Vibe | 3.80 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Park Kilmor... | Supergrace | 2.90 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Park Kilmor... | Dealer Sing | 2.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Park Kilmor... | Conflict | 1.75 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Park Kilmor... | Supergrace | 2.90 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Park Kilmor... | Singapore Splash | 4.60 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Park Kilmor... | No Greater Vue | 3.60 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Park Kilmor... | Lunar Force | 3.10 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Park Kilmor... | Conflict | 1.75 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Park Kilmor... | Sara's Rocket | 6.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Park Kilmor... | No Greater Vue | 3.60 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Park Kilmor... | Arabian Prince | 1.45 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Park Kilmor... | Ancho | 5.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Park Kilmor... | Hell's Diamond | 2.80 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 1W-9L | P/L: -$7.06
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 15:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | TOWNSVILLE R4 1000m Hcap | 3. Cifonelli | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 31 Mar 15:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | KILMORE R5 1207m Mdn | 9. Sexy Warrior | 5.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 31 Mar 14:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | NEWCASTLE R4 1250m CL1 | 4. Greyt Thinker | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 31 Mar 14:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | TOWNSVILLE R1 1609m Mdn | 4. Stellar Legend | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 31 Mar 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | NEWCASTLE R1 1850m Mdn | 5. Scoop The Pool | 5.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 31 Mar 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | NEWCASTLE R3 900m CL1 | 4. Charka | 7.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 31 Mar 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | TOWNSVILLE R1 1609m Mdn | 5. Ready And Betta | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 31 Mar 12:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | Townsville (AUS) 31st Mar | Burlington Arcade | 1.97 | $2.00 | WON | +$1.94 |
| 31 Mar 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | KILMORE R8 2007m Hcap | 7. Merimbula | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 31 Mar 11:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | NEWCASTLE R3 900m CL1 | 8. Truce | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 12W-23L | P/L: +$36.24
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar 17:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SAPPHIRE COAST R8 1200m M... | 9. Eagle Crescent | 8.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 16:36 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GRAFTON R7 1190m CL2 | 9. Elronte | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 16:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ARARAT R8 1106m Hcap | 5. Body Of Venus | 4.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.80 |
| 30 Mar 16:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GRAFTON R7 1190m CL2 | 8. Dubalene | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 16:05 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ararat (AUS) 30th Mar | Yoomee Wonder | 2.96 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.96 |
| 30 Mar 16:05 | BF | Nick Noonan | Programmed BM62 Handicap | Just Bolts | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 15:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GRAFTON R5 2230m Hcap | 9. Champagne Rouge | 5.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GRAFTON R1 1115m Mdn | 5. Foxy Artist | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 12:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GRAFTON R4 1720m Mdn | 8. Soloact | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 12:06 | BF | Edward Sadler | Ords Motorcycles BM62 Han... | Yoomee Wonder | 2.96 | $2.00 | WON | +$3.92 |
| 30 Mar 12:06 | BF | Nick Noonan | Manhari BM56 Handicap | Flashlight | 4.70 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 30 Mar 12:05 | BF | Luke Hovhanesia... | Grafton (AUS) 30th Mar | Referees | 2.26 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 30 Mar 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ords Motorcycles BM62 Han... | Yoomee Wonder | 2.96 | $2.00 | WON | +$3.92 |
| 30 Mar 11:35 | BF | Edward Sadler | Manhari BM56 Handicap | Flashlight | 4.60 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 29 Mar 17:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SUNSHINE COAST R8 1800m C... | 1. Till Dusk | 3.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 16:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SUNSHINE COAST R7 1000m H... | 7. Darth Invader | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 15:20 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SALE R5 1200m Hcap | 2. Podargoni | 8.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 15:20 | BF | Matt Hill | Ladbrokes Big Bets Copy N... | High Tempo | 2.96 | $3.00 | WON | +$5.88 |
| 29 Mar 15:20 | BF | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Same Race Multi BM... | Zemgrinda | 2.44 | $2.00 | WON | +$2.88 |
| 29 Mar 15:20 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SUNSHINE COAST R6 1000m M... | 2. Oscar | 3.35 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 15:20 | BF | Ben Asgari | No. 1 Car Wash 0 - 62 Han... | She Daresthe Devil | 5.80 | $2.00 | WON | +$9.60 |
| 29 Mar 15:19 | BF | Ben Asgari | Ladbrokes Big Bets Copy N... | High Tempo | 2.96 | $2.00 | WON | +$3.92 |
| 29 Mar 15:19 | BF | Matt Hill | No. 1 Car Wash 0 - 62 Han... | She Daresthe Devil | 5.80 | $3.00 | WON | +$14.40 |
| 29 Mar 15:19 | BF | Matt Hill | Carlton Draught BM62 Hand... | Small Town Hero | 2.28 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.28 |
| 29 Mar 15:19 | BF | Miles Pfitzner | Armidale (AUS) 29th Mar | Cosmolicious | 2.74 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 29 Mar 15:19 | BF | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Same Race Multi BM... | Zemgrinda | 2.44 | $2.00 | WON | +$2.88 |
| 29 Mar 15:19 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SUNSHINE COAST R7 1000m H... | 14. Conformity | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 14:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | PORT LINCOLN R2 1350m Mdn | 3. Me Names Harry | 9.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$8.80 |
| 29 Mar 11:35 | BF | Brent Zerafa | ISLA Vodka Maiden Plate | Pitman | 3.05 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 11:35 | BF | Brent Zerafa | The Pyrenees Shire 0 - 56... | Manchego | 4.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 11:35 | BF | Matt Hill | Johnson Plumbing & Gas BM... | Baganov | 2.72 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 11:35 | BF | Ric McIntosh | Carlton Draught 0 - 56 Ha... | Emerald Court | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | ADAMS FINANCIAL GROUP Mai... | Hot Miss | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 11:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Armidale (AUS) 29th Mar | Under The Collar | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 11:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Armidale (AUS) 29th Mar | Harbour Gold | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31.Mar 20:09 | SEN | Darren Carroll | Swan Hill R5 | Thunderfire | 2.15 | SKIP | WON |
| 31.Mar 19:35 | SEN | Darren Carroll | Swan Hill R4 | Steel Miki | 1.55 | SKIP | WON |
| 31.Mar 18:22 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R8 | Oakley Shard | 1.01 | SKIP | WON |
| 31.Mar 17:57 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R7 | Sweet Dior | 1.01 | SKIP | LOST |
| 31.Mar 17:50 | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Townsville R7 | Carpaccio | 3.30 | SKIP | LOST |
| 31.Mar 17:50 | Sky | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Townsville R7 | Carpaccio | 3.15 | SKIP | LOST |
| 31.Mar 17:37 | SEN | Amanda Rando | Menangle R8 | Titian Raider | 5.50 | SKIP | LOST |
| 31.Mar 17:30 | Racing Com | Harry White | Newcastle R8 | Dusty Bay | 5.00 | SKIP | LOST |
| 31.Mar 17:30 | SEN | Luke Hovhanesian | Newcastle R8 | Dusty Bay | 4.80 | SKIP | LOST |
| 31.Mar 17:30 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Newcastle R8 | 2. Is It Spectacular | 6.45 | SKIP | WON |
| 31.Mar 17:17 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R6 | Sports Bounty | 1.01 | SKIP | WON |
| 31.Mar 17:00 | Payload | Glenn Ingram | - | Sonic Bender | - | SKIP | LOST |
| 31.Mar 15:55 | Payload | Betfair Data Scientists | - | Cifonelli | - | SKIP | LOST |
| 31.Mar 06:14* | Sportsbet | Howard Walter | Townsville R7 | Keep On Running | 13.00 | SKIP | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 1083 | 244W-815L | -$151.64 | -14.0% |
Dynamic whitelist (9 tipsters) + consensus detection (6 groups) + tiered staking. No LAY bets. Sources filtered: sky_racing, sportsbet_racing, payload.
| Tipster | P/L | Bets | WR | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Data Scientists | $58.61 | 105 | 28% | 55.8% |
| David Strehlau | $40.69 | 97 | 31% | 41.9% |
| Matt Hill | $23.95 | 63 | 38% | 35.7% |
| John Kelton | $17.30 | 100 | 37% | 17.3% |
| Adam Olszanski | $16.92 | 54 | 30% | 31.3% |
| Tony Kneebone | $15.98 | 76 | 32% | 21.0% |
| Sam Hyland | $13.55 | 92 | 29% | 14.7% |
| Ben Asgari | $5.75 | 119 | 28% | 4.8% |
| Nick Noonan | $2.73 | 109 | 28% | 2.5% |
Staking: WL+Consensus=$3 | Consensus=$2 | Whitelist=$1
| Selection | Event | Tips | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lunar Force | C&M Build Group BM62 | 2 | CONS $2 |
| No Greater Vue | Broadstead Kilmore B | 2 | CONS $2 |
| Burlington Arcade | Townsville (AUS) 31s | 2 | CONS $2 |
| Supergrace | Bundoora Retirement | 2 | CONS $2 |
| Conflict | RMBL Investments Ris | 2 | CONS $2 |
| Arabian Prince | bet365 Top Finishes | 2 | CONS $2 |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 10,362 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 29 Mar 14:45 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.959
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.326 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.283 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.253 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.241 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.184 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.123 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.092 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.091 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.084 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.080 |
|
| Form Score | +0.068 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.058 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.053 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.027 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.025 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.023 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.023 |
|
| Recent Form | -0.017 |
|
| Barrier | +0.017 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.002 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.001 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1162 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1505 | 21% | 23% | +2% |
| 25-30% | 726 | 27% | 27% | +0% |
| 30-35% | 2837 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2363 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 716 | 44% | 33% | -12% |
| 50%+ | 952 | 60% | 42% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 12 | BET: 0 | SKIP: 12 | Settled: 11 | Avg EV: +0.07 | Accuracy: 63.6% | Brier: 0.202 vs Mkt 0.220 (+0.018)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Apr 15:24 | Paul Kelly | Snitzalatte | 2.50 | -0.19 | -7.7% | SB | Horse | 32.3% | SKIP | pending | |
| 31 Mar 20:09 | Darren Carroll | Thunderfire | 2.15 | -0.32 | -14.7% | SEN | Harness | 31.9% | SKIP | WON +$1.15 | |
| 31 Mar 19:35 | Darren Carroll | Steel Miki | 1.55 | -0.34 | -22.0% | SEN | Harness | 42.6% | SKIP | WON +$0.55 | |
| 31 Mar 18:22 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Oakley Shard | 1.01 | -0.45 | -44.6% | Sky | Harness | 54.4% | SKIP | WON +$0.01 | |
| 31 Mar 17:57 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Sweet Dior | 1.01 | -0.58 | -57.1% | Sky | Harness | 41.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 31 Mar 17:50 | Chris Nelson | Carpaccio | 3.30 | +0.02 | +0.5% | RC | Horse | 30.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 31 Mar 17:50 | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Carpaccio | 3.15 | -0.08 | -2.5% | Sky | Horse | 29.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 31 Mar 17:50 | Howard Walter | Keep On Running | 13.00 | +1.59 | +12.2% | SB | Horse | 19.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 31 Mar 17:37 | Amanda Rando | Titian Raider | 5.50 | +0.21 | +3.9% | SEN | Harness | 22.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 31 Mar 17:30 | Harry White | Dusty Bay | 5.00 | +0.37 | +7.3% | RC | Horse | 27.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 31 Mar 17:30 | Luke Hovhanesian | Dusty Bay | 4.80 | +0.29 | +6.1% | SEN | Horse | 27.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 31 Mar 17:30 | Betfair Rated Model | 2. Is It Spectacular | 6.45 | +0.34 | +5.2% | BF | Horse | 20.7% | SKIP | WON +$5.45 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |