+$31.56
Total P/L
| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-24T05:35 | Betfair Rated Model | 6. Booya Boy | 9.40 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-24T04:35 | Mitch Lewis | 6. Associate | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-23T23:05 | The Leg Up | 2. The Hamo | 2.98 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 9 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.Feb 05:14* | Sportsbet | Dean Watling | Ballina R7 | Spicy Wings | 4.20 | SKIP 22% | TRACK |
| 27.Feb 03:14* | Sportsbet | Dean Watling | Ballina R4 | Gaylord | 2.40 | SKIP 38% | TRACK |
| 27.Feb 00:14* | Sportsbet | Paul Kelly | Lex Piper Stakes R... | Linchpin | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 00:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | Lex Piper Stakes R... | The Crimson Pirate | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 00:14* | Sportsbet | Joel Marshall | RNone None | Justabittapress | 7.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 00:14* | Sportsbet | Joel Marshall | Quayclean R10 | Rock 'N' The Jam | 4.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 00:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | RNone None | Snow God | 2.05 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 00:14* | Sportsbet | Paul Kelly | RNone None | Fancy Red | 1.95 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 20:54* | Hub | Betfair Cricket Trader | England v New Zeal... | New Zealand | 2.10 | - | TRACK |
| 26.Feb 11:35* | Sky | Sky Racing - Belinda Smith | WYONG R8 | She's Assort | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 17:14* | Sportsbet | Ian Humphries | Goulburn Post R6 | Tjaka | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 17:14* | Sportsbet | Ian Humphries | Brad Writer Constr... | Romanticism | 2.35 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 15:08* | SEN | Luke Hovhanesian | Wyong R8 | She's Assort | 2.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 15:08* | SEN | Luke Hovhanesian | Wyong R7 | Ausbred Hed'n'tail | 2.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 15:08* | SEN | Luke Hovhanesian | Wyong R3 | Saytara | 2.35 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 11:35* | Sky | Sky Racing - Belinda Smith | WYONG R1 | So D'oro | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 13:14* | Sportsbet | Dean Watling | Douse Fire Protect... | Spicy Wings | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 13:14* | Sportsbet | Dean Watling | Koala Farms Hcp R4 | Gaylord | 2.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Ocean Bay | 4.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Chloe First | 3.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Savoyard | 4.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Houdini | 2.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Soul Mistress | 4.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Stuntman | 3.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Handsome Missile | 7.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Tiz Worthy | 2.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Camilleri | Wyong R8 | She's Assort | 1.95 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Camilleri | Wyong R1 | So D'oro | 1.95 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Camilleri | Wyong R7 | Ausbred Hed'n'tail | 2.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 11:07* | Ladbrokes Blog | Jared Timms | Sandown R6 | Enamorada | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 8W-13L | P/L: +$8.03
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb 21:05 | Hub | Michael Tye | Sandown Park | 2. Lochinvar Nugget | 4.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 21:05 | Hub | Michael Tye | Sandown Park | 1. Shes Primed | 3.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 20:05 | Hub | Jackson Oldham | Pakenham | 1. Plunger | 4.50 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.50 |
| 26 Feb 17:35 | Hub | Glenn Ingram | Pakenham | 5. Stuntman | 2.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 17:05 | Hub | Michael Tye | Sandown Park | 5. Dear Carla Lou | 2.34 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 15:36 | BF | Ben Asgari | Pakenham (AUS) 26th Feb | Savoyard | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 15:35 | BF | Stats Insider | Ipswich | 5. Hermione Prancer | 2.28 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.28 |
| 26 Feb 15:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | GREAT NORTHERN Class 2 Ha... | Meadowbrook | 3.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 15:35 | BF | Ben Asgari | Pakenham (AUS) 26th Feb | Ocean Bay | 4.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 15:35 | Hub | Betfair Data Sc... | Mount Gambier | 4. Rickis Burner | 5.70 | $1.00 | WON | +$4.70 |
| 26 Feb 12:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Wyong (AUS) 26th Feb | Saytara | 2.44 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | SURA MAIDEN | Cosmic Gem | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 11:36 | BF | Rebecca Hill | TAB QTIS Three-Years-Old ... | Bent Bridge | 3.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.90 |
| 26 Feb 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | REWARD HOMES SUPER MAIDEN... | Saytara | 2.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 11:36 | BF | Rebecca Hill | POCO VINO Class 1 Handica... | Hermione Prancer | 2.24 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.24 |
| 26 Feb 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | MGIB HANDICAP | Safedeel | 2.66 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.66 |
| 26 Feb 11:36 | BF | Rebecca Hill | RIVER 96.9FM Class 2 Hand... | San Jose Boy | 3.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.90 |
| 26 Feb 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | THE ARY MIDWAY CLASS 1 HA... | Listen Sweetheart | 3.85 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.85 |
| 26 Feb 11:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Tamworth (AUS) 26th Feb | Carramar Olam | 3.05 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 11:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Tamworth (AUS) 26th Feb | Kintire Rush | 2.94 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 11:05 | Hub | Stats Insider | Oklahoma City Thunder @ D... | Oklahoma City Thunder | 4.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 10W-37L | P/L: +$5.32
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb 06:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Wyong (AUS) 26th Feb | Missile Magnate | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 01:35 | Hub | Betfair Cricket... | West Indies v South Afric... | West Indies | 2.94 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 21:35 | Hub | Betfair Data Sc... | Wincanton | Shalfa | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 20:35 | Hub | Betfair Data Sc... | Bangor-on-Dee | Halftheworldaway | 2.86 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.86 |
| 25 Feb 19:05 | BF | Darren McAullay | SHARE BETS WITH TABTOUCH ... | Champagne Crusader | 4.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.90 |
| 25 Feb 18:35 | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 7. Unacceptable Nik | 2.26 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.26 |
| 25 Feb 17:05 | Hub | Darren and Bret... | Mildura | 3. Magic Matty | 3.75 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 16:05 | Hub | Steve Christie | Launceston | 6. Distrustful Award | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 15:35 | Hub | Steve Christie | Launceston | 7. Miss Keeds | 8.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 15:35 | Hub | Jackson Oldham | Sandown | 3. Bluestone | 2.98 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 15:05 | BF | Scott Embry | SHARE BETS WITH TABTOUCH ... | Mighty Hosanna | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 15:05 | BF | Scott Embry | RELIABLE ASSET MAINTENANC... | Cheyne Bay | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 14:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Sandown (AUS) 25th Feb | Wentworth Falls | 9.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 13:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Dynamic Finance Brokers T... | Agnete | 4.70 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.70 |
| 25 Feb 13:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Rosehill (AUS) 25th Feb | Samarelle | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 12:35 | BF | Jared Timms | Rosehill (AUS) 25th Feb | Sphere | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | RELIABLE ASSET MAINTENANC... | Cheyne Bay | 3.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | SHARE BETS WITH TABTOUCH ... | Champagne Crusader | 4.70 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.70 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | Sunset Soiree Book Now BM... | Tophet | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | Girls Day Out 7 March Fil... | Edge Of Infinity | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | Hub | Stats Insider | Charlotte Hornets @ Chica... | Chicago Bulls | 3.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | Hub | Stats Insider | Washington Wizards @ Atla... | Washington Wizards | 6.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 07:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Belmont (AUS) 25th Feb | Poppy's Roses | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 23:05 | Hub | Betfair Data Sc... | Leicester | Delgany Deadline | 3.85 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.85 |
| 24 Feb 23:05 | Hub | Betfair Data Sc... | Newcastle | Without Compromise | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 17:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ROCKHAMPTON R6 1400m Hcap | 10. Our Heart Throb | 10.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$9.00 |
| 24 Feb 17:35 | Hub | Scott Hill | Gloucester Park | 3. Basinghall | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 17:05 | Hub | Scott Hill | Gloucester Park | 3. Cassini Belle | 4.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 16:35 | Hub | Ryan Spice | Albion Park | 1. Copperfield | 3.35 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 16:35 | Hub | Scott Hill | Gloucester Park | 2. Lunar Miss | 3.85 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 16:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ROCKHAMPTON R5 1050m Hcap | 3. Canny Be Better | 8.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 16:05 | Hub | Mitch Lewis | Scone | 2. Blend Of Three | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 15:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | Queensland Hotels Associa... | Our Eagle Rock | 6.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 15:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SCONE R4 1600m Hcap | 3. Roses Imminente | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 15:05 | BF | Stats Insider | Menangle | 3. Vespa Stride | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 14:35 | Hub | Betfair Data Sc... | Kembla Grange | 1. Just Awesome | 3.25 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.25 |
| 24 Feb 14:05 | BF | Sam Lyons | Natimuk Fire Recovery Mai... | King Camelot | 2.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 14:05 | BF | Sam Lyons | Manhari BM56 Handicap | Ville De Lumiere | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 14:05 | BF | Jared Timms | Horsham (AUS) 24th Feb | Bertrand | 4.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 14:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | HORSHAM R3 1200m Mdn | 2. Monix | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ROCKHAMPTON R3 1400m Mdn | 7. Notforthemoney | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 12:05 | BF | Jared Timms | Horsham (AUS) 24th Feb | Body Of Venus | 8.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$7.80 |
| 24 Feb 12:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ru... | Rockhampton (AUS) 24th Fe... | Our Eagle Rock | 6.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 11:35 | BF | Harry White | SUPERNOVA FINANCIAL CONDI... | Duke Of Camden | 8.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 11:35 | BF | Harry White | HAPPY 18TH LACHLAN SHEPPA... | Crusader Voyage | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | IGT Australia Handicap | Tizso Fab | 7.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$6.00 |
| 24 Feb 09:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ru... | Rockhampton (AUS) 24th Fe... | Marellity | 8.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.Feb 21:52 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R8 | Jetasi | 2.30 | SKIP 41% | VOID |
| 26.Feb 21:21 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R7 | Crown Mojo | 2.98 | SKIP 35% | VOID |
| 26.Feb 20:54* | Hub | Michael Tye | Sandown Park | 2. Lochinvar Nugget | 4.30 | BET 45% | LOST |
| 26.Feb 20:54* | Hub | Michael Tye | Sandown Park | 1. Shes Primed | 3.75 | BET 48% | LOST |
| 26.Feb 20:54* | Hub | Darren and Brett Carroll | Kilmore | 6. Mystic Motiver | 3.65 | SKIP 29% | LOST |
| 26.Feb 20:51 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R6 | Emerging Deal | 2.20 | SKIP 42% | VOID |
| 26.Feb 20:45 | Ladbrokes Blog | Jared Timms | Pakenham R7 | Plunger | 4.70 | SKIP 12% | WON |
| 26.Feb 20:45 | SEN | Ben Asgari | Pakenham R7 | Savoyard | 4.40 | BET 32% | LOST |
| 26.Feb 20:30 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Bunbury R7 | 7. Seindeel | 7.33 | SKIP 8% | LOST |
| 26.Feb 20:30 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Bunbury R7 | Manhattan Strip | 6.50 | SKIP 6% | LOST |
| 26.Feb 20:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Bunbury R7 | Decoration | 9.00 | SKIP 6% | LOST |
| 26.Feb 20:24* | Hub | Michael Tye | Sandown Park | 1. No Do Day | 6.20 | BET 40% | WON |
| 26.Feb 20:21 | SEN | Amanda Rando | Penrith R5 | Our Uncle Jim | 34.00 | SKIP 6% | VOID |
| 26.Feb 20:21 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R5 | I Bet You | 2.90 | SKIP 35% | VOID |
| 26.Feb 20:15 | SEN | Ben Asgari | Pakenham R6 | Ocean Bay | 4.40 | BET 28% | LOST |
| 26.Feb 20:15 | Ladbrokes Blog | Jared Timms | Pakenham R6 | Cafe Au Lait | 5.80 | SKIP 15% | LOST |
| 26.Feb 20:00 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Bunbury R6 | Safedeel | 2.70 | - | WON |
| 26.Feb 20:00 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Bunbury R6 | Miss Veuve | 10.50 | - | LOST |
| 26.Feb 19:54* | Hub | Jackson Oldham | Pakenham | 1. Plunger | 4.50 | BET 28% | WON |
| 26.Feb 19:51 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R4 | Tigerlicious | 1.95 | - | VOID |
| 26.Feb 19:24* | Hub | Michael Tye | Sandown Park | 8. Ross The Boss | 4.20 | BET 44% | LOST |
| 26.Feb 19:24* | Hub | Daniel Cripps | Bunbury | 3. Feuding | 19.50 | SKIP 6% | LOST |
| 26.Feb 18:54* | Hub | Daniel Cripps | Bunbury | 6. Azena | 3.75 | SKIP 10% | WON |
| 26.Feb 18:45 | Payload | Glenn Ingram | - | Stuntman | - | - | LOST |
| 26.Feb 17:54* | Hub | Michael Tye | Sandown Park | 8. Charlestown | 1.92 | - | WON |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 438 | 142W-287L | -$90.11 | -20.6% |
| Betfair Tips | 666 | 175W-475L | -$114.96 | -17.3% |
Model: logistic_v4 | Training Data: 7,395 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.01 | Calibration: 5 points | Last Retrain: 25 Feb 13:22 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -1.024
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.509 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.425 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.416 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.335 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.298 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.278 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.204 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.112 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.102 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.074 |
|
| Source Edge | -0.035 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.026 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.001 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 453 | 9% | 17% | +8% |
| 15-25% | 830 | 21% | 21% | +1% |
| 25-30% | 339 | 27% | 30% | +2% |
| 30-35% | 2577 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2194 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 441 | 44% | 29% | -14% |
| 50%+ | 578 | 60% | 46% | -14% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 23 | BET: 8 | SKIP: 15 | Settled: 21 | Avg EV: +0.20 | Accuracy: 61.9% | Brier: 0.200 vs Mkt 0.176 (-0.024)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Feb 16:54 | Dean Watling | Spicy Wings | 4.20 | -0.09 | -2.3% | SB | Horse | 21.6% | SKIP | pending | |
| 27 Feb 14:59 | Dean Watling | Gaylord | 2.40 | -0.09 | -3.8% | SB | Horse | 37.9% | SKIP | pending | |
| 26 Feb 22:42 | Michael Tye | 2. Lochinvar Nugget | 4.30 | +0.92 | +21.5% | Hub | Other | 44.7% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Feb 21:52 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Jetasi | 2.30 | -0.05 | -2.2% | Sky | Harness | 41.3% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 26 Feb 21:44 | Michael Tye | 1. Shes Primed | 3.60 | +0.72 | +19.9% | Hub | Other | 47.7% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Feb 21:21 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Crown Mojo | 2.98 | +0.04 | +1.3% | Sky | Harness | 34.9% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 26 Feb 21:06 | Darren and Brett Carroll | 6. Mystic Motiver | 3.60 | +0.06 | +1.7% | Hub | Horse | 29.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Feb 21:01 | Michael Tye | 1. No Do Day | 8.00 | +2.18 | +27.2% | Hub | Other | 39.7% | BET | WON +$0.19 | |
| 26 Feb 20:51 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Emerging Deal | 2.20 | -0.07 | -3.3% | Sky | Harness | 42.2% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 26 Feb 20:45 | Jared Timms | Plunger | 4.70 | -0.45 | -9.5% | LB | Horse | 11.7% | SKIP | WON +$3.70 | |
| 26 Feb 20:45 | Ben Asgari | Savoyard | 4.40 | +0.43 | +9.7% | SEN | Horse | 32.4% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Feb 20:45 | Jackson Oldham | 1. Plunger | 4.50 | +0.27 | +6.0% | Hub | Horse | 28.2% | BET | WON +$3.50 | |
| 26 Feb 20:40 | Michael Tye | 8. Ross The Boss | 4.80 | +1.12 | +23.4% | Hub | Other | 44.3% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Feb 20:30 | Betfair Rated Model | 7. Seindeel | 7.33 | -0.43 | -5.9% | BF | Horse | 7.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Feb 20:30 | Daniel Cripps | 3. Feuding | 19.50 | +0.17 | +0.9% | Hub | Horse | 6.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Feb 20:30 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Decoration | 9.00 | -0.46 | -5.1% | Sky | Horse | 6.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Feb 20:30 | Rylie Morgan | Manhattan Strip | 6.50 | -0.61 | -9.4% | RC | Horse | 6.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Feb 20:30 | Daniel Cripps | 6. Azena | 3.60 | -0.62 | -17.3% | Hub | Horse | 10.4% | SKIP | WON +$2.75 | |
| 26 Feb 20:30 | Betfair Cricket Trader | West Indies | 2.94 | +0.32 | +10.7% | Hub | Other | 44.8% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Feb 20:21 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | I Bet You | 2.90 | +0.03 | +1.0% | Sky | Harness | 35.5% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 26 Feb 20:21 | Amanda Rando | Our Uncle Jim | 34.00 | +1.03 | +3.0% | SEN | Harness | 6.0% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 26 Feb 20:15 | Jared Timms | Cafe Au Lait | 5.80 | -0.14 | -2.3% | LB | Horse | 14.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Feb 20:15 | Ben Asgari | Ocean Bay | 4.40 | +0.25 | +5.7% | SEN | Horse | 28.4% | BET | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4 (Isotonic, threshold 0.20), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3 (Platt), Green = v4 (Isotonic).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (v4) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |