| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 17 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Strategy | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.Apr 03:44* | Sportsbet | Howard Walter | Mackay R5 | More Trouble | 2.10 | SKIP | TRACK |
| 02.Apr 00:14* | Sportsbet | Andre Kassay | Pipe Pro Direction... | Southern Crescent | 6.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 02.Apr 00:14* | Sportsbet | Andre Kassay | Ac Accounting Coun... | Strictly Business | 3.90 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | ASCOT R7 | The Jester's Son | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | ASCOT R2 | God's Hammer | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 14:14* | Sportsbet | Howard Walter | RNone None | Turn Me Royale | 6.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 14:14* | Sportsbet | Howard Walter | Book Event Centre ... | More Trouble | 2.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R2 | God's Enchantment | 5.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Doomben R4 | He'sgotthesay | 8.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Camilleri | Warwick Farm R5 | Vella's Best | 5.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Pasadena | 2.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Eternal Darkness | 6.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Houdini | 2.80 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Sussex Duchess | 4.80 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Silky Seth | 3.80 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Fox Phire | 5.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Sussex Duchess | 4.80 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Houdini | 2.80 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Pula | 2.60 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Brutal Tempo | 5.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Bonus Season | 1.90 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Prince Pienza | 17.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Pula | 2.60 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Bonus Season | 1.90 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Boa Vista | 3.30 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Ladbrokes Geelong ... | Nothin' Surer | 8.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 00:14* | Sportsbet | Brendan Tupper | Hosted Pots Mdn Pl... | Bordeaux | 4.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Apr 00:14* | Sportsbet | Brendan Tupper | RNone None | Pray Day | 2.60 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 17:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | RNone None | Wembanyama | 7.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 17:14* | Sportsbet | Joel Marshall | Solutions Matchmak... | Too Darn Stormy | 3.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 4W-9L | P/L: -$0.05
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Apr 16:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GEELONG R6 1100m Hcap | 2. Eternal Darkness | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Apr 15:36 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ASCOT R6 2400m Grp 3 | 3. Admire Astra | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Apr 15:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ASCOT R2 1200m 2yo | 7. Divine Mirage | 9.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Apr 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Select & Atlas Event and ... | Hakeba | 3.75 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Apr 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Adelaide Galvanising Indu... | Good Expectations | 2.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Apr 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | BMD Colts, Geldings & Ent... | Rob The Bank | 3.35 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Apr 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Taylors Wines Fillies and... | Lady Memphis | 3.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Apr 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | Coopers Brewery Rating 0-... | Rousing Refrain | 4.60 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.60 |
| 01 Apr 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | BTR Excavations Class Two... | Stokomo | 2.54 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.54 |
| 01 Apr 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | Sportsbet Racing Form Mai... | Thundara | 2.26 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.26 |
| 01 Apr 09:35 | BF | Sam Hyland | Geelong (AUS) 1st Apr | Kokeshi | 9.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Apr 09:35 | BF | Sam Hyland | Balaklava (AUS) 1st Apr | Leliyn | 3.55 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.55 |
| 01 Apr 09:35 | BF | Sam Hyland | Warwick Farm (AUS) 1st Ap... | Rantan | 4.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 5W-19L | P/L: -$6.46
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 15:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | TOWNSVILLE R4 1000m Hcap | 3. Cifonelli | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 31 Mar 15:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | KILMORE R5 1207m Mdn | 9. Sexy Warrior | 5.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 31 Mar 14:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | NEWCASTLE R4 1250m CL1 | 4. Greyt Thinker | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 31 Mar 14:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | TOWNSVILLE R1 1609m Mdn | 4. Stellar Legend | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 31 Mar 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | NEWCASTLE R1 1850m Mdn | 5. Scoop The Pool | 5.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 31 Mar 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | NEWCASTLE R3 900m CL1 | 4. Charka | 7.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 31 Mar 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | TOWNSVILLE R1 1609m Mdn | 5. Ready And Betta | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 31 Mar 12:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | Townsville (AUS) 31st Mar | Burlington Arcade | 1.97 | $2.00 | WON | +$1.94 |
| 31 Mar 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | KILMORE R8 2007m Hcap | 7. Merimbula | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 31 Mar 11:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | NEWCASTLE R3 900m CL1 | 8. Truce | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 17:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SAPPHIRE COAST R8 1200m M... | 9. Eagle Crescent | 8.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 16:36 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GRAFTON R7 1190m CL2 | 9. Elronte | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 16:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ARARAT R8 1106m Hcap | 5. Body Of Venus | 4.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.80 |
| 30 Mar 16:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GRAFTON R7 1190m CL2 | 8. Dubalene | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 16:05 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ararat (AUS) 30th Mar | Yoomee Wonder | 2.96 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.96 |
| 30 Mar 16:05 | BF | Nick Noonan | Programmed BM62 Handicap | Just Bolts | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 15:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GRAFTON R5 2230m Hcap | 9. Champagne Rouge | 5.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GRAFTON R1 1115m Mdn | 5. Foxy Artist | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 12:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GRAFTON R4 1720m Mdn | 8. Soloact | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 12:06 | BF | Edward Sadler | Ords Motorcycles BM62 Han... | Yoomee Wonder | 2.96 | $2.00 | WON | +$3.92 |
| 30 Mar 12:06 | BF | Nick Noonan | Manhari BM56 Handicap | Flashlight | 4.70 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 30 Mar 12:05 | BF | Luke Hovhanesia... | Grafton (AUS) 30th Mar | Referees | 2.26 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 30 Mar 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ords Motorcycles BM62 Han... | Yoomee Wonder | 2.96 | $2.00 | WON | +$3.92 |
| 30 Mar 11:35 | BF | Edward Sadler | Manhari BM56 Handicap | Flashlight | 4.60 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01.Apr 20:40 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R10 | King Adviso | 2.90 | SKIP | LOST |
| 01.Apr 20:40 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R10 | Immortal Bliss | 1.01 | SKIP | LOST |
| 01.Apr 20:05 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R9 | Wembanyama | 6.40 | SKIP | LOST |
| 01.Apr 20:05 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | ASCOT R9 1400m Hca... | 3. Axemans Jazz | 6.01 | SKIP | LOST |
| 01.Apr 20:05 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R9 | Simply Thinkin' | 5.00 | SKIP | LOST |
| 01.Apr 20:05 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | ASCOT R9 1400m Hca... | 7. Wembanyama | 6.40 | SKIP | LOST |
| 01.Apr 19:30 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R8 | Too Darn Stormy | 2.90 | SKIP | LOST |
| 01.Apr 19:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R8 | Too Darn Stormy | 2.82 | SKIP | LOST |
| 01.Apr 18:55 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R7 | Invincible Thief | 5.00 | SKIP | LOST |
| 01.Apr 18:20 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R6 | Wonderfully Made | 2.00 | SKIP | WON |
| 01.Apr 18:20 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R6 | Masmelo | 3.30 | SKIP | LOST |
| 01.Apr 18:20 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Ascot R6 | 3. Admire Astra | 7.40 | SKIP | LOST |
| 01.Apr 18:08 | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Doomben R7 | Climactic | 2.90 | SKIP | WON |
| 01.Apr 17:50 | Racing Com | Chris Camilleri | Warwick Farm R8 | Formal Display | 2.70 | SKIP | WON |
| 01.Apr 17:44 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R5 | The Crimson Pirate | 2.40 | SKIP | LOST |
| 01.Apr 17:44 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R5 | Fancy Red | 3.50 | SKIP | LOST |
| 01.Apr 17:40 | Racing Com | John Kelton | Balaklava R7 | Rousing Refrain | 4.80 | WL $1 | WON |
| 01.Apr 17:33 | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Doomben R6 | Take Achance On Me | 6.00 | SKIP | LOST |
| 01.Apr 17:33 | SEN | Sam Hyland | Doomben R6 | Majestic Boom | 26.00 | WL $1 | LOST |
| 01.Apr 17:15 | Racing Com | Chris Camilleri | Warwick Farm R7 | Call Me Gorgeous | 3.80 | SKIP | WON |
| 01.Apr 09:14* | Sportsbet | Julie Rowland | Balaklava R7 | Rousing Refrain | 4.50 | SKIP | WON |
| 01.Apr 08:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | Ascot (AUS) 1st Ap... | Wembanyama | 6.00 | SKIP | LOST |
| 01.Apr 07:44* | Sportsbet | Joel Marshall | Ascot R8 | Too Darn Stormy | 2.90 | SKIP | LOST |
| 01.Apr 07:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | Ascot R7 | Invincible Thief | 5.00 | SKIP | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 1096 | 248W-824L | -$151.69 | -13.8% |
Dynamic whitelist (9 tipsters) + consensus detection (4 groups) + tiered staking. No LAY bets. Sources filtered: sky_racing, sportsbet_racing, payload.
| Tipster | P/L | Bets | WR | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Data Scientists | $58.61 | 105 | 28% | 55.8% |
| David Strehlau | $40.69 | 97 | 31% | 41.9% |
| Matt Hill | $23.95 | 63 | 38% | 35.7% |
| John Kelton | $19.90 | 107 | 37% | 18.6% |
| Adam Olszanski | $16.92 | 54 | 30% | 31.3% |
| Tony Kneebone | $15.98 | 76 | 32% | 21.0% |
| Sam Hyland | $13.20 | 96 | 29% | 13.8% |
| Ben Asgari | $5.75 | 119 | 28% | 4.8% |
| Nick Noonan | $2.73 | 109 | 28% | 2.5% |
Staking: WL+Consensus=$3 | Consensus=$2 | Whitelist=$1
| Selection | Event | Tips | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pula | Race Day Medical PTY | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Sussex Duchess | Statewide Coolrooms | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Houdini | Bennett Racing BM66 | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Bonus Season | Oasis Turf 3YO Filli | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 10,422 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 29 Mar 14:45 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.959
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.326 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.283 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.253 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.241 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.184 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.123 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.092 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.091 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.084 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.080 |
|
| Form Score | +0.068 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.058 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.053 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.027 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.025 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.023 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.023 |
|
| Recent Form | -0.017 |
|
| Barrier | +0.017 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.002 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.001 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1162 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1526 | 21% | 23% | +2% |
| 25-30% | 745 | 27% | 28% | +0% |
| 30-35% | 2849 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2369 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 717 | 44% | 33% | -12% |
| 50%+ | 953 | 60% | 42% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 23 | BET: 3 | SKIP: 20 | Settled: 21 | Avg EV: +0.19 | Accuracy: 61.9% | Brier: 0.187 vs Mkt 0.207 (+0.019)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Apr 15:30 | Howard Walter | More Trouble | 2.10 | -0.34 | -16.2% | SB | Horse | 31.4% | SKIP | pending | |
| 02 Apr 15:10 | Jared Timms | NO BF Maidoff | - | -0.55 | -27.5% | LB | Horse | 22.5% | SKIP | pending | |
| 01 Apr 20:40 | Rylie Morgan | King Adviso | 2.90 | -0.31 | -10.6% | RC | Horse | 23.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 01 Apr 20:40 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Immortal Bliss | 1.01 | -0.43 | -42.6% | Sky | Horse | 56.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 01 Apr 20:05 | Rylie Morgan | Simply Thinkin' | 5.00 | +0.31 | +6.2% | RC | Horse | 26.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 01 Apr 20:05 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Wembanyama | 6.40 | +1.01 | +15.8% | Sky | Horse | 31.4% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 01 Apr 20:05 | Greg Hooper | Wembanyama | 6.00 | +0.66 | +11.0% | SB | Horse | 27.7% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 01 Apr 19:30 | Joel Marshall | Too Darn Stormy | 2.90 | -0.09 | -3.2% | SB | Horse | 31.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 01 Apr 19:30 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Too Darn Stormy | 2.82 | -0.05 | -1.6% | Sky | Horse | 33.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 01 Apr 19:30 | Rylie Morgan | Too Darn Stormy | 2.90 | -0.39 | -13.3% | RC | Horse | 21.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 01 Apr 18:55 | Greg Hooper | Invincible Thief | 5.00 | +0.15 | +3.1% | SB | Horse | 23.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 01 Apr 18:55 | Rylie Morgan | Invincible Thief | 5.00 | -0.14 | -2.8% | RC | Horse | 17.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 01 Apr 18:20 | Rylie Morgan | Wonderfully Made | 2.00 | -0.57 | -28.6% | RC | Horse | 21.4% | SKIP | WON +$1.00 | |
| 01 Apr 18:20 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Masmelo | 3.30 | -0.13 | -4.0% | Sky | Horse | 26.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 01 Apr 18:20 | Betfair Rated Model | 3. Admire Astra | 7.40 | +0.49 | +6.6% | BF | Horse | 20.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 01 Apr 18:08 | Chris Nelson | Climactic | 2.90 | +0.13 | +4.5% | RC | Horse | 39.0% | SKIP | WON +$1.90 | |
| 01 Apr 17:50 | Chris Camilleri | Formal Display | 2.70 | -0.29 | -10.8% | RC | Horse | 26.2% | SKIP | WON +$1.70 | |
| 01 Apr 17:44 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Fancy Red | 3.50 | +0.17 | +4.8% | Sky | Horse | 33.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 01 Apr 17:44 | Rylie Morgan | The Crimson Pirate | 2.40 | -0.51 | -21.1% | RC | Horse | 20.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 01 Apr 17:40 | Julie Rowland | Rousing Refrain | 4.50 | +0.17 | +3.7% | SB | Horse | 26.0% | SKIP | WON +$3.50 | |
| 01 Apr 17:40 | John Kelton | Rousing Refrain | 4.80 | +0.33 | +6.9% | RC | Horse | 27.7% | SKIP | WON +$3.80 | |
| 01 Apr 17:33 | Sam Hyland | Majestic Boom | 26.00 | +4.13 | +15.9% | SEN | Horse | 19.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 01 Apr 17:33 | Chris Nelson | Take Achance On Me | 6.00 | +0.57 | +9.5% | RC | Horse | 26.2% | BET | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |