| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 16 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.Mar 03:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Scone R3 | Inazuma Boy | 2.35 | SKIP 40% | TRACK |
| 19.Mar 20:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R7 | Shinelikethesun | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 20:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R6 | Whats The Tea | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 20:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R5 | April Sun | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 20:26* | Racing Com | Edward Sadler | Southside Pakenham... | Yamashita's Gold | 2.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 20:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R4 | Amelias Jewel | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 20:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R3 | Ox Knox | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 20:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R2 | Midnight Mojo | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 20:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki | MELTON R1 | Tappy | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 15:26* | Racing Com | Michael Heaton | Albany R7 | Let'sdeal | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 15:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Yarraman Park Show... | Zucchero | 4.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 15:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Kia Ora Showcase R... | Inazuma Boy | 2.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Yamashita's Gold | 3.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Edward Sadler | Southside Pakenham... | Bold Suitor | 3.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Edward Sadler | Southside Pakenham... | Miss Deceiver | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Bee Admired | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Edward Sadler | Southside Pakenham... | Kings Domain | 3.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Jet Jitsu | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Customer Service | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Accidental Bid | 2.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Edward Sadler | Southside Pakenham... | Battle Of The Ice | 2.35 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Oxley Tycoon | 2.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Edward Sadler | Southside Pakenham... | Blakmax | 2.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Heavy Is The Head | 9.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Edward Sadler | Southside Pakenham... | Bee Admired | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Edward Sadler | Southside Pakenham... | Oxley Tycoon | 2.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Edward Sadler | Southside Pakenham... | Customer Service | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Mr Magnus | 3.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Mackay R7 | Henry's Blade | 1.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 19.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Scott McDonell | RNone None | Theology | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 1W-8L | P/L: -$3.80
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar 20:05 | BF | Craig Morrison | WESTERN RACEPIX HANDICAP | Pure Chino | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 17:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ru... | Mackay (AUS) 19th Mar | Scrub Chain | 5.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$4.20 |
| 19 Mar 17:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Mackay (AUS) 19th Mar | Answering | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 15:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Mackay (AUS) 19th Mar | Belvedere Miss | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Cr... | Albany (AUS) 19th Mar | Top Of The Pops | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Cr... | Albany (AUS) 19th Mar | Pure Chino | 8.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GOSFORD R4 1600m CL1 | 4. Gallahop | 9.00 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 19 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Mackay (AUS) 19th Mar | Blessed Boom | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sam Hyland | Albury (AUS) 19th Mar | Star Bling | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 09:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Albany (AUS) 19th Mar | Pure Chino | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 2W-12L | P/L: -$0.20
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar 18:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CAULFIELD R8 1000m Hcap | 2. Excess | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 18:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CAULFIELD R8 1000m Hcap | 3. Along The River | 7.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 17:05 | BF | Scott Embry | STATEWIDE OIL HANDICAP | Tycoon Dreamer | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 17:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ASCOT R1 1400m CL3 | 2. Extreme Love | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 14:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | ENCORE BY MINGARA HANDICA... | Maybe Moet | 2.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 14:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | SUNSET SOIREE 20 MARCH QT... | Geitz | 6.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | WYONG R3 1625m Mdn | 10. Lilac Girl | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 18 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | BECOME A BRC MEMBER Maide... | Koolibah | 4.60 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.60 |
| 18 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | COAST COMMUNITY NEWS HAND... | Think Itz You | 9.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$8.20 |
| 18 Mar 06:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Caulfield (AUS) 18th Mar | Sparkling Luck | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 17 Mar 16:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Moree (AUS) 17th Mar | Claudio | 8.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 17 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | HAPPY BIRTHDAY ALI ARNDT ... | Shadow Of Light | 6.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 17 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | PIONEER SERVICES BENCHMAR... | Smart Cry | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 17 Mar 10:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Terang (AUS) 17th Mar | Break The Taboo | 8.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.Mar 21:35* | Betfair Model | Betfair AFL Model | Hawthorn v Sydney | Hawthorn | 1.85 | SKIP 43% | WON |
| 19.Mar 20:45 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Pakenham R8 | 1. Mr Magnus | 3.53 | SKIP 29% | LOST |
| 19.Mar 20:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Albany R7 | Pure Chino | 8.60 | BET 20% | LOST |
| 19.Mar 20:30 | Racing Com | Craig Morrison | Albany R7 | Pure Chino | 9.50 | SKIP 19% | LOST |
| 19.Mar 20:15 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Pakenham R7 | 1. Battle Of The Ice | 2.73 | SKIP 22% | VOID |
| 19.Mar 20:00 | Racing Com | Craig Morrison | Albany R6 | Cruise To Rio | 4.00 | SKIP 22% | WON |
| 19.Mar 20:00 | Racing Com | Michael Heaton | Albany R6 | Reggio Calabria | 4.50 | SKIP 22% | LOST |
| 19.Mar 19:30 | Racing Com | Michael Heaton | Albany R5 | Puissance Playboy | 7.00 | SKIP 20% | LOST |
| 19.Mar 19:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Albany R5 | Skytalker | 2.40 | SKIP 28% | LOST |
| 19.Mar 19:30 | Racing Com | Craig Morrison | Albany R5 | Skytalker | 2.35 | SKIP 31% | LOST |
| 19.Mar 19:00 | Racing Com | Craig Morrison | Albany R4 | Roundabout Glory | 3.30 | SKIP 38% | LOST |
| 19.Mar 19:00 | Sky | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Albany R4 | Roundabout Glory | 3.25 | SKIP 27% | LOST |
| 19.Mar 19:00 | Racing Com | Michael Heaton | Albany R4 | Roundabout Glory | 3.30 | SKIP 40% | LOST |
| 19.Mar 18:45 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Pakenham R4 | 7. Kings Domain | 4.14 | SKIP 18% | LOST |
| 19.Mar 18:40 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Mackay R8 | War Council | 4.60 | SKIP 21% | LOST |
| 19.Mar 18:40 | Sky | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Mackay R8 | Flying Animo | 2.28 | SKIP 32% | WON |
| 19.Mar 18:40 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Mackay R8 | 2. Tow The Line | 4.74 | SKIP 25% | LOST |
| 19.Mar 18:30 | Racing Com | Michael Heaton | Albany R3 | God Has Drifted | 3.60 | SKIP 22% | WON |
| 19.Mar 18:30 | Racing Com | Craig Morrison | Albany R3 | Top Of The Pops | 10.00 | SKIP 21% | LOST |
| 19.Mar 18:30 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Albany R3 | 6. Insyde Success | 2.87 | SKIP 19% | LOST |
| 19.Mar 18:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Albany R3 | Top Of The Pops | 9.80 | BET 22% | LOST |
| 19.Mar 18:10 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Mackay R8 | Ten Carat Lucy | 2.35 | SKIP 22% | VOID |
| 19.Mar 18:10 | Sky | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Mackay R8 | Ten Carat Lucy | 2.42 | SKIP 29% | VOID |
| 19.Mar 18:10 | Sky | Sky Racing - Russell Leonard | Mackay R8 | Ten Carat Lucy | 2.42 | SKIP 28% | VOID |
| 19.Mar 17:55 | Racing Com | Craig Morrison | Albany R2 | Cosmic Gem | 2.10 | SKIP 34% | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 953 | 221W-709L | -$168.55 | -17.7% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 9,404 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 15 Mar 23:21 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.932
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.348 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.290 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.257 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.238 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.174 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.114 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.112 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.105 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.082 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.073 |
|
| Form Score | +0.054 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.050 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.039 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.039 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.034 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.034 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.022 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.021 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.019 |
|
| Barrier | +0.011 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.007 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1161 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1103 | 20% | 23% | +2% |
| 25-30% | 502 | 27% | 28% | +1% |
| 30-35% | 2712 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2300 | 37% | 31% | -6% |
| 40-50% | 633 | 44% | 32% | -12% |
| 50%+ | 904 | 60% | 43% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 38 | BET: 4 | SKIP: 34 | Settled: 37 | Avg EV: +0.06 | Accuracy: 75.7% | Brier: 0.135 vs Mkt 0.153 (+0.018)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar 14:45 | Shayne Montgomery | Inazuma Boy | 2.35 | -0.05 | -2.2% | SB | Horse | 40.4% | SKIP | pending | |
| 19 Mar 20:45 | Betfair Rated Model | 1. Mr Magnus | 3.53 | +0.01 | +0.2% | BF | Horse | 28.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 20:30 | Mark Wise | Pure Chino | 9.50 | +0.85 | +9.0% | SB | Horse | 19.5% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 20:30 | Craig Morrison | Pure Chino | 9.50 | +0.81 | +8.5% | RC | Horse | 19.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 20:30 | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Pure Chino | 8.60 | +0.75 | +8.7% | Sky | Horse | 20.3% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 20:15 | Betfair Rated Model | 1. Battle Of The Ice | 2.73 | -0.39 | -14.3% | BF | Horse | 22.3% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 19 Mar 20:00 | Michael Heaton | Reggio Calabria | 4.50 | -0.01 | -0.3% | RC | Horse | 21.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 20:00 | Craig Morrison | Cruise To Rio | 4.00 | -0.12 | -3.1% | RC | Horse | 21.9% | SKIP | WON +$3.00 | |
| 19 Mar 19:30 | Betfair AFL Model | Hawthorn | 1.85 | -0.20 | -10.9% | BET | Other | 43.1% | SKIP | WON +$0.85 | |
| 19 Mar 19:30 | Michael Heaton | Puissance Playboy | 7.00 | +0.43 | +6.1% | RC | Horse | 20.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 19:30 | Craig Morrison | Skytalker | 2.35 | -0.28 | -11.9% | RC | Horse | 30.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 19:30 | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Skytalker | 2.40 | -0.34 | -14.0% | Sky | Horse | 27.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 19:00 | Craig Morrison | Roundabout Glory | 3.30 | +0.27 | +8.1% | RC | Horse | 38.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 19:00 | Michael Heaton | Roundabout Glory | 3.30 | +0.33 | +10.1% | RC | Horse | 40.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 19:00 | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Roundabout Glory | 3.25 | -0.12 | -3.6% | Sky | Horse | 27.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 18:45 | Betfair Rated Model | 7. Kings Domain | 4.14 | -0.25 | -5.9% | BF | Horse | 18.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 18:40 | Rebecca Hill | War Council | 4.60 | -0.03 | -0.7% | RC | Horse | 21.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 18:40 | Betfair Rated Model | 2. Tow The Line | 4.74 | +0.21 | +4.3% | BF | Horse | 25.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 18:40 | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Flying Animo | 2.28 | -0.28 | -12.2% | Sky | Horse | 31.7% | SKIP | WON +$1.28 | |
| 19 Mar 18:30 | Michael Heaton | God Has Drifted | 3.60 | -0.21 | -5.7% | RC | Horse | 22.1% | SKIP | WON +$2.60 | |
| 19 Mar 18:30 | Craig Morrison | Top Of The Pops | 10.00 | +1.06 | +10.6% | RC | Horse | 20.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 18:30 | Betfair Rated Model | 6. Insyde Success | 2.87 | -0.44 | -15.3% | BF | Horse | 19.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 18:30 | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Top Of The Pops | 9.80 | +1.14 | +11.7% | Sky | Horse | 21.9% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 18:10 | Sky Racing - Russell Leonard | Ten Carat Lucy | 2.42 | -0.31 | -13.0% | Sky | Horse | 28.4% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 19 Mar 18:10 | Rebecca Hill | Ten Carat Lucy | 2.35 | -0.49 | -20.9% | RC | Horse | 21.6% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 19 Mar 18:10 | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Ten Carat Lucy | 2.42 | -0.31 | -12.7% | Sky | Horse | 28.6% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 19 Mar 17:55 | Craig Morrison | Cosmic Gem | 2.10 | -0.30 | -14.1% | RC | Horse | 33.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 17:55 | Michael Heaton | Cosmic Gem | 2.10 | -0.26 | -12.4% | RC | Horse | 35.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 17:55 | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Cosmic Gem | 2.22 | -0.56 | -25.4% | Sky | Horse | 19.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 17:37 | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Answering | 4.70 | +0.18 | +3.8% | Sky | Horse | 25.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 17:37 | Betfair Rated Model | 7. Little Iffy | 7.33 | +1.24 | +16.9% | BF | Horse | 30.5% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 17:37 | Sky Racing - Russell Leonard | Scrub Chain | 4.90 | +0.34 | +6.9% | Sky | Horse | 27.3% | SKIP | WON +$4.40 | |
| 19 Mar 17:20 | Betfair Rated Model | 1. Le Beau | 6.92 | +0.47 | +6.7% | BF | Horse | 21.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 17:20 | Betfair Rated Model | 7. Acoustic Bubbles | 2.54 | -0.23 | -9.0% | BF | Horse | 30.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 17:20 | Michael Heaton | Acoustic Bubbles | 2.45 | +0.06 | +2.6% | RC | Horse | 43.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 17:20 | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Acoustic Bubbles | 2.54 | -0.30 | -11.7% | Sky | Horse | 27.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 17:20 | Craig Morrison | Acoustic Bubbles | 2.45 | +0.01 | +0.5% | RC | Horse | 41.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 19 Mar 17:20 | Mark Wise | Acoustic Bubbles | 2.00 | -0.42 | -21.2% | SB | Horse | 28.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |