| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 12 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.Mar 12:05* | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | PINJARRA R3 | I'm A Soulman | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:38* | SEN | Sam Hyland | Beaudesert R5 | Giddy Gan's Joy | 15.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Perfect Picture | 2.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Chocolate Box | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Spirit Of Gaia | 3.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Lethal Thoughts | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Extragalactic | 3.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Listening Is Doing | 14.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Cavalry | 1.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | She Daresthe Devil | 15.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Chocolate Box | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Chowdown | 2.25 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Cavalry | 1.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Cabaret Queen | 2.05 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | The Negotiator | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Perfect Picture | 2.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Chowdown | 2.25 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Cabaret Queen | 2.05 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Scarpside... | Forgotten Son | 9.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Scarpside... | Diamond Choux | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Scarpside... | Shilling Lane | 1.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Scarpside... | Sovereign Salute | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Scarpside... | Oscars No Grouch | 2.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Scarpside... | Too Much Talk | 4.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Scarpside... | Mighty Hosanna | 3.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Scarpside... | Wynn Las Vegas | 1.95 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Aquis Beaudesert R... | Possibilities | 2.05 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Aquis Beaudesert R... | Maybe | 3.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Aquis Beaudesert R... | Savvy Bee | 8.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Aquis Beaudesert R... | Ally | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 5W-12L | P/L: -$3.26
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 16:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Cairns (AUS) 12th Mar | Tsunami | 7.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 13:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | NEWCASTLE R3 1300m Mdn | 9. Arctic Bright | 3.55 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 12:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Pinjarra (AUS) 12th Mar | Wynn Las Vegas | 1.93 | $1.00 | WON | +$0.93 |
| 12 Mar 12:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Pinjarra (AUS) 12th Mar | Mighty Hosanna | 3.70 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.70 |
| 12 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | DAILEY FAMILY FUNERALS MA... | Plume | 3.15 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | NEW ZEALAND BLOODSTOCK BE... | Fierce | 2.56 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | NEW ERA TECHNOLOGY F&M BE... | Girijaala | 2.66 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.66 |
| 12 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | HAPPY 77TH BIRTHDAY GARY ... | Duck For Cover | 4.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 10:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Cairns (AUS) 12th Mar | Middle Child | 2.74 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 10:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Tamworth (AUS) 12th Mar | Ashleys Blue Chip | 2.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Tamworth (AUS) 12th Mar | Mister Cheese | 2.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Cairns (AUS) 12th Mar | Rhegion | 2.28 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Tamworth (AUS) 12th Mar | Maxy Bomber | 2.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Tamworth (AUS) 12th Mar | Thomas Royal | 3.35 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.35 |
| 12 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Cairns (AUS) 12th Mar | Coppabella Road | 4.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Cairns (AUS) 12th Mar | Lord Power | 3.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 07:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Pinjarra (AUS) 12th Mar | Wynn Las Vegas | 2.10 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.10 |
Record: 6W-26L | P/L: -$9.64
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar 19:35 | BF | Darren McAullay | MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HAN... | Royal Splendour | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 19:35 | BF | Scott Embry | GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP | Just Leroy | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 19:35 | BF | Scott Embry | MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HAN... | Queen Of Jerusalem | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 16:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | WARWICK FARM R6 1100m Hca... | 6. Vanessi | 6.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 12:05 | BF | Miles Pfitzner | Balaklava (AUS) 11th Mar | Duo Perna | 3.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.00 |
| 11 Mar 12:05 | BF | Chris Camilleri | MYPLATES HANDICAP | The Wildling | 9.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | SWAN DRAUGHT HANDICAP | Endless Joy | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Nelson | STRADBROKE SEASON ON SALE... | Influential | 3.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Adelaide Galvanising Indu... | Duo Perna | 2.76 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.76 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | HYLAND RACE COLOURS PLATE | Maidoff | 2.96 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HAN... | Queen Of Jerusalem | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Terminus Hotel Balaklava ... | Causeweluvadelaide | 5.70 | $1.00 | WON | +$4.70 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | 118 Years Racing at Balak... | Settle Petal | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | BECOME A BRC MEMBER Class... | Silent Call | 2.74 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Ascot (AUS) 11th Mar | Ripper Rupert | 3.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HA... | Polyglot | 3.65 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | TQCSI Rating 0 - 56 Handi... | Arc De Puissance | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | THE GIBSON Class 4 Handic... | Royal Commodore | 3.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.20 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | SKY RACING Maiden Handica... | Castlereagh Affair | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP | Just Leroy | 4.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | BTR Excavations Rating 0 ... | Eclair Vitality | 2.64 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | IRRESISTIBLE POOLS AND SP... | Look Here | 4.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 08:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Sandown (AUS) 11th Mar | Zakouma | 2.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.80 |
| 10 Mar 15:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | WARWICK R3 1350m Mdn | 10. Soloact | 4.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 15:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Warwick (AUS) 10th Mar | Rock The Sunrise | 2.32 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | BALLARAT R1 1200m Mdn | 3. Harry Met Sally | 4.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.90 |
| 10 Mar 12:05 | BF | Harry White | TAB VENUE MODE CLASS 1 & ... | Contaldo | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | CAFÉ NOSH MAIDEN HANDICAP | Prize Witness | 2.78 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | 12 MAY GLOUCESTER CUP BEN... | Myalaby | 6.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Taree (AUS) 10th Mar | Zelestial | 2.32 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 09:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Taree (AUS) 10th Mar | Zelestial | 2.32 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 08:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Taree (AUS) 10th Mar | Ready And Lucky | 2.26 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.Mar 21:51 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R8 | My Ultimate Sassy | 1.55 | SKIP 30% | LOST |
| 12.Mar 21:21 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R7 | Foresight | 1.45 | SKIP 60% | WON |
| 12.Mar 20:51 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R6 | Grey Cadillac | 1.91 | SKIP 56% | WON |
| 12.Mar 20:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R8 | Miss Veuve | 7.60 | SKIP 7% | LOST |
| 12.Mar 20:21 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R5 | Rick Reilly | 3.35 | SKIP 6% | LOST |
| 12.Mar 20:00 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R7 | Golden Kathleen | 5.80 | SKIP 7% | LOST |
| 12.Mar 19:51 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R4 | Flo Ryda | 5.50 | SKIP 15% | LOST |
| 12.Mar 19:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R6 | Mighty Hosanna | 3.80 | BET 33% | WON |
| 12.Mar 19:21 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R3 | Ima Boxa | 1.16 | SKIP 39% | WON |
| 12.Mar 19:00 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R5 | Wynn Las Vegas | 1.93 | BET 62% | WON |
| 12.Mar 18:52 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R2 | Tiger Prince | 2.30 | SKIP 8% | LOST |
| 12.Mar 18:45 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Pakenham R4 | 8. Titans Spirit | 6.97 | SKIP 6% | WON |
| 12.Mar 18:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R4 | Vivalda | 3.65 | SKIP 32% | LOST |
| 12.Mar 18:22 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R1 | Sweet Strike | 3.85 | SKIP 10% | LOST |
| 12.Mar 12:05* | Betfair Model | Betfair AFL Model | Carlton v Richmond | Carlton | 1.40 | SKIP 62% | WON |
| 12.Mar 08:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | Pinjarra (AUS) 12t... | Too Much Talk | 4.50 | SKIP 9% | LOST |
| 12.Mar 07:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | Pinjarra (AUS) 12t... | Wynn Las Vegas | 2.05 | BET 62% | WON |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 858 | 204W-635L | -$149.57 | -17.4% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 8,846 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.01 | Calibration: 5 points | Last Retrain: 09 Mar 18:15 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -1.009
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.566 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.457 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.447 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.397 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.370 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.157 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.147 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.113 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.093 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.089 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.087 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.080 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.025 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.016 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.005 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 997 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 991 | 20% | 23% | +3% |
| 25-30% | 424 | 27% | 29% | +1% |
| 30-35% | 2662 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2256 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 593 | 44% | 32% | -12% |
| 50%+ | 840 | 60% | 43% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 17 | BET: 3 | SKIP: 14 | Settled: 17 | Avg EV: -0.29 | Accuracy: 70.6% | Brier: 0.161 vs Mkt 0.186 (+0.025)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 21:51 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | My Ultimate Sassy | 1.55 | -0.54 | -34.8% | Sky | Harness | 29.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 12 Mar 21:21 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Foresight | 1.45 | -0.13 | -9.3% | Sky | Harness | 59.7% | SKIP | WON +$0.45 | |
| 12 Mar 20:51 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Grey Cadillac | 1.91 | +0.06 | +3.2% | Sky | Harness | 55.6% | SKIP | WON +$0.91 | |
| 12 Mar 20:30 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Miss Veuve | 7.60 | -0.43 | -5.7% | Sky | Horse | 7.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 12 Mar 20:21 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Rick Reilly | 3.35 | -0.79 | -23.5% | Sky | Harness | 6.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 12 Mar 20:00 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Golden Kathleen | 5.80 | -0.60 | -10.4% | Sky | Horse | 6.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 12 Mar 20:00 | Greg Hooper | Too Much Talk | 4.50 | -0.59 | -13.2% | SB | Horse | 9.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 12 Mar 19:51 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Flo Ryda | 5.50 | -0.18 | -3.3% | Sky | Harness | 14.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 12 Mar 19:30 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Mighty Hosanna | 3.80 | +0.26 | +6.8% | Sky | Horse | 33.1% | BET | WON +$0.55 | |
| 12 Mar 19:30 | Betfair AFL Model | Carlton | 1.40 | -0.13 | -9.0% | BET | Other | 62.4% | SKIP | WON +$0.40 | |
| 12 Mar 19:21 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Ima Boxa | 1.16 | -0.54 | -46.9% | Sky | Harness | 39.3% | SKIP | WON +$0.16 | |
| 12 Mar 19:00 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Wynn Las Vegas | 1.93 | +0.21 | +10.6% | Sky | Horse | 62.4% | BET | WON +$0.94 | |
| 12 Mar 19:00 | Greg Hooper | Wynn Las Vegas | 2.05 | +0.28 | +13.7% | SB | Horse | 62.4% | BET | WON +$1.12 | |
| 12 Mar 18:52 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Tiger Prince | 2.30 | -0.82 | -35.6% | Sky | Harness | 7.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 12 Mar 18:45 | Betfair Rated Model | 8. Titans Spirit | 6.97 | -0.56 | -8.0% | BF | Horse | 6.3% | SKIP | WON +$5.97 | |
| 12 Mar 18:30 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Vivalda | 3.65 | +0.17 | +4.8% | Sky | Horse | 32.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 12 Mar 18:22 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Sweet Strike | 3.85 | -0.60 | -15.7% | Sky | Harness | 10.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4 (Isotonic, threshold 0.20), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3 (Platt), Green = v4/v5 (Isotonic).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.20). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4/v5 decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (v4) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |