+$43.41
Total P/L
| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 17 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Strategy | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31.Mar 03:44* | Sportsbet | Howard Walter | Townsville R3 | She's A Beauty | 1.60 | SKIP | TRACK |
| 31.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Brave Smash At Yar... | Shirvington | 7.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 31.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Hyland Race Colour... | Seraphox | 2.60 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 30.Mar 15:14* | Sportsbet | Howard Walter | Same Race Multi R7 | Keep On Running | 13.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 30.Mar 12:44* | Sportsbet | Howard Walter | Form Genius Mdn Hc... | San Juan | 1.45 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 30.Mar 12:44* | Sportsbet | Howard Walter | Mitavite Mdn Hcp R... | She's A Beauty | 1.80 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 30.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Ararat R1 | Trouble'n Paradise | 3.20 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 30.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Andre Kassay | RNone None | Lunar Force | 3.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 30.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Andre Kassay | Rmbl Investments R... | Conflict | 1.70 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 30.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | GOULBURN R9 | Miki Be Good | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 30.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | GOULBURN R8 | Where Back | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 30.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | GOULBURN R7 | Lookmeover | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 30.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | GOULBURN R6 | Titiwha | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 30.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | GOULBURN R5 | Birdy Gal | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 30.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | GOULBURN R4 | Bam Bam Brook | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 30.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | GOULBURN R3 | Parallel | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 30.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | GOULBURN R2 | Happily | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 30.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | GOULBURN R1 | Kennywould | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 29.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | John Kelton | Sportsbet Port Lin... | The Wirrulla Boy | 3.40 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 29.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | John Kelton | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Skating On By | 3.70 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 29.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | John Kelton | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Golden Tunes | 1.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 29.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | John Kelton | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Lava Lad | 5.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 29.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | John Kelton | Sportsbet Port Lin... | The Last Dance | 2.25 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 29.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | John Kelton | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Dragon Fish | 2.30 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 29.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | John Kelton | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Blue Special | 7.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 29.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast R3 | Don't Doubt Missy | 3.40 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 29.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Ian Humphries | Greenway Turf Solu... | Stormy Reign | 2.80 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 29.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Ian Humphries | Rensen Constructio... | Classic Touch | 2.15 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 13:56* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | The Final Word | 6.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 28.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Dolce D'amour | 1.70 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 4W-10L | P/L: +$0.60
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar 17:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SAPPHIRE COAST R8 1200m M... | 9. Eagle Crescent | 8.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 16:36 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GRAFTON R7 1190m CL2 | 9. Elronte | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 16:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ARARAT R8 1106m Hcap | 5. Body Of Venus | 4.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.80 |
| 30 Mar 16:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GRAFTON R7 1190m CL2 | 8. Dubalene | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 16:05 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ararat (AUS) 30th Mar | Yoomee Wonder | 2.96 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.96 |
| 30 Mar 16:05 | BF | Nick Noonan | Programmed BM62 Handicap | Just Bolts | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 15:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GRAFTON R5 2230m Hcap | 9. Champagne Rouge | 5.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GRAFTON R1 1115m Mdn | 5. Foxy Artist | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 12:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GRAFTON R4 1720m Mdn | 8. Soloact | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 30 Mar 12:06 | BF | Edward Sadler | Ords Motorcycles BM62 Han... | Yoomee Wonder | 2.96 | $2.00 | WON | +$3.92 |
| 30 Mar 12:06 | BF | Nick Noonan | Manhari BM56 Handicap | Flashlight | 4.70 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 30 Mar 12:05 | BF | Luke Hovhanesia... | Grafton (AUS) 30th Mar | Referees | 2.26 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 30 Mar 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ords Motorcycles BM62 Han... | Yoomee Wonder | 2.96 | $2.00 | WON | +$3.92 |
| 30 Mar 11:35 | BF | Edward Sadler | Manhari BM56 Handicap | Flashlight | 4.60 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
Record: 15W-38L | P/L: +$40.34
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar 17:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SUNSHINE COAST R8 1800m C... | 1. Till Dusk | 3.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 16:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SUNSHINE COAST R7 1000m H... | 7. Darth Invader | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 15:20 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SALE R5 1200m Hcap | 2. Podargoni | 8.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 15:20 | BF | Matt Hill | Ladbrokes Big Bets Copy N... | High Tempo | 2.96 | $3.00 | WON | +$5.88 |
| 29 Mar 15:20 | BF | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Same Race Multi BM... | Zemgrinda | 2.44 | $2.00 | WON | +$2.88 |
| 29 Mar 15:20 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SUNSHINE COAST R6 1000m M... | 2. Oscar | 3.35 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 15:20 | BF | Ben Asgari | No. 1 Car Wash 0 - 62 Han... | She Daresthe Devil | 5.80 | $2.00 | WON | +$9.60 |
| 29 Mar 15:19 | BF | Ben Asgari | Ladbrokes Big Bets Copy N... | High Tempo | 2.96 | $2.00 | WON | +$3.92 |
| 29 Mar 15:19 | BF | Matt Hill | No. 1 Car Wash 0 - 62 Han... | She Daresthe Devil | 5.80 | $3.00 | WON | +$14.40 |
| 29 Mar 15:19 | BF | Matt Hill | Carlton Draught BM62 Hand... | Small Town Hero | 2.28 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.28 |
| 29 Mar 15:19 | BF | Miles Pfitzner | Armidale (AUS) 29th Mar | Cosmolicious | 2.74 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 29 Mar 15:19 | BF | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Same Race Multi BM... | Zemgrinda | 2.44 | $2.00 | WON | +$2.88 |
| 29 Mar 15:19 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SUNSHINE COAST R7 1000m H... | 14. Conformity | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 14:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | PORT LINCOLN R2 1350m Mdn | 3. Me Names Harry | 9.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$8.80 |
| 29 Mar 11:35 | BF | Brent Zerafa | ISLA Vodka Maiden Plate | Pitman | 3.05 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 11:35 | BF | Brent Zerafa | The Pyrenees Shire 0 - 56... | Manchego | 4.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 11:35 | BF | Matt Hill | Johnson Plumbing & Gas BM... | Baganov | 2.72 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 11:35 | BF | Ric McIntosh | Carlton Draught 0 - 56 Ha... | Emerald Court | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | ADAMS FINANCIAL GROUP Mai... | Hot Miss | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 11:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Armidale (AUS) 29th Mar | Under The Collar | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 29 Mar 11:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Armidale (AUS) 29th Mar | Harbour Gold | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 15:35 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Royal Ascot Handicap | Justadeel | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 15:05 | BF | Matt Hill | Royal Ascot Handicap | Justadeel | 4.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 14:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GOLD COAST R2 1900m Mdn | 3. Come On Mr Snips | 7.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 14:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Rosehill (AUS) 28th Mar | Storm Leopard | 4.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.40 |
| 28 Mar 13:05 | BF | Matt Hill | TAB Australian Cup | Birdman | 3.75 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 12:36 | BF | Ben Asgari | ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap | Way To The Stars | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 12:36 | BF | Ben Asgari | Glorious Goodwood Handica... | Stoli Bolli | 4.60 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.60 |
| 28 Mar 12:36 | BF | Dean Watling | Flemington (AUS) 28th Mar | Birdman | 3.55 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 12:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Flemington (AUS) 28th Mar | Moor Mumm | 5.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 12:06 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Glorious Goodwood Handica... | Stoli Bolli | 4.60 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.60 |
| 28 Mar 12:06 | BF | David Strehlau | ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap | Pisanello | 6.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 12:06 | BF | Clint Hutchison | TAB Australian Cup | Birdman | 3.55 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 12:06 | BF | Dean Watling | Flemington (AUS) 28th Mar | Way To The Stars | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 12:05 | BF | Cam Luke | Rosehill (AUS) 28th Mar | Panova | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 12:05 | BF | David Strehlau | Royal Ascot Handicap | Al Duca | 4.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.90 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | Ben Asgari | TAB Australian Cup | Leica Lucy | 6.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Sportsbet Clare Lindop St... | Mating Call | 4.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | Travis Noonan | Flemington (AUS) 28th Mar | Wise Inlaw | 5.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Glorious Goodwood Handica... | Stoli Bolli | 4.50 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.50 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | Brent Zerafa | ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap | Pisanello | 6.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | Matt Hill | ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap | Midwest | 5.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | Brent Zerafa | TAB Australian Cup | Birdman | 3.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | Tony Kneebone | The Curragh, Where Champi... | Pantile Warrior | 5.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:36 | BF | Clint Hutchison | ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap | Way To The Stars | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | AIG Security Handicap (He... | Shadow Eagle | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 11:35 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Royal Ascot Handicap | Al Duca | 4.70 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.70 |
| 28 Mar 11:05 | BF | David Taggart | Rosehill (AUS) 28th Mar | Verona Rose | 7.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 10:35 | BF | Mark Hunter | Kyneton (AUS) 28th Mar | Pure Rain | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 10:05 | BF | David Gately | Flemington (AUS) 28th Mar | Actuality | 6.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 10:05 | BF | Travis Noonan | Rosehill (AUS) 28th Mar | Varjak | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 09:05 | BF | Heath Pope | Morphettville (AUS) 28th ... | Mating Call | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Mar 08:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Port Macquarie (AUS) 28th... | Blue Dane | 9.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$8.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.Mar 21:16 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R7 | Taking Stock | 2.30 | SKIP | WON |
| 30.Mar 20:48 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R6 | Miarka | 1.90 | SKIP | WON |
| 30.Mar 20:20 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R5 | Blue Suede Rocka | 3.55 | SKIP | LOST |
| 30.Mar 19:45 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R4 | Rosies Boy | 2.40 | SKIP | WON |
| 30.Mar 19:10 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R3 | Convair Hustler | 4.70 | SKIP | LOST |
| 30.Mar 18:35 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R2 | Amillionchances | 2.80 | SKIP | WON |
| 30.Mar 18:06 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R1 | Studleigh Anne | 2.16 | SKIP | LOST |
| 30.Mar 17:34 | SEN | Darren Carroll | Maryborough R9 | Majestic Lord | 1.75 | SKIP | LOST |
| 30.Mar 17:30 | Racing Com | Harry White | Grafton R8 | Strobing | 5.00 | SKIP | LOST |
| 30.Mar 17:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Belinda Smith | Grafton R8 | Beearetee | 4.20 | SKIP | LOST |
| 30.Mar 17:10 | Racing Com | Chris Camilleri | Sapphire Coast R8 | Eagle Crescent | 5.00 | SKIP | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 1073 | 243W-806L | -$144.58 | -13.5% |
Dynamic whitelist (10 tipsters) + consensus detection (3 groups) + tiered staking. No LAY bets. Sources filtered: sky_racing, sportsbet_racing, payload.
| Tipster | P/L | Bets | WR | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Data Scientists | $58.61 | 105 | 28% | 55.8% |
| David Strehlau | $40.69 | 97 | 31% | 41.9% |
| Matt Hill | $23.95 | 63 | 38% | 35.7% |
| John Kelton | $17.30 | 100 | 37% | 17.3% |
| Adam Olszanski | $16.92 | 54 | 30% | 31.3% |
| Tony Kneebone | $15.98 | 76 | 32% | 21.0% |
| Sam Hyland | $13.55 | 92 | 29% | 14.7% |
| Ben Asgari | $5.75 | 119 | 28% | 4.8% |
| Betfair Rated Model | $4.61 | 68 | 22% | 6.8% |
| Nick Noonan | $2.73 | 109 | 28% | 2.5% |
Staking: WL+Consensus=$3 | Consensus=$2 | Whitelist=$1
| Selection | Event | Tips | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Referees | Grafton (AUS) 30th M | 2 | CONS $2 |
| Flashlight | Manhari BM56 Handica | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Yoomee Wonder | Ords Motorcycles BM6 | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 10,304 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 29 Mar 14:45 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.959
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.326 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.283 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.253 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.241 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.184 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.123 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.092 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.091 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.084 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.080 |
|
| Form Score | +0.068 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.058 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.053 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.027 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.025 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.023 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.023 |
|
| Recent Form | -0.017 |
|
| Barrier | +0.017 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.002 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.001 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1162 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1484 | 21% | 22% | +2% |
| 25-30% | 708 | 27% | 27% | +0% |
| 30-35% | 2828 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2363 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 710 | 44% | 32% | -12% |
| 50%+ | 950 | 60% | 42% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 11 | BET: 0 | SKIP: 11 | Settled: 10 | Avg EV: -0.22 | Accuracy: 60.0% | Brier: 0.257 vs Mkt 0.206 (-0.051)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 15:20 | Howard Walter | She's A Beauty | 1.60 | -0.60 | -37.5% | SB | Horse | 25.0% | SKIP | pending | |
| 30 Mar 21:16 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Taking Stock | 2.30 | -0.41 | -17.8% | Sky | Harness | 25.7% | SKIP | WON +$1.30 | |
| 30 Mar 20:48 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Miarka | 1.90 | -0.36 | -19.0% | Sky | Harness | 33.6% | SKIP | WON +$0.90 | |
| 30 Mar 20:20 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Blue Suede Rocka | 3.55 | -0.15 | -4.1% | Sky | Harness | 24.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 30 Mar 19:45 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Rosies Boy | 2.40 | -0.41 | -17.0% | Sky | Harness | 24.6% | SKIP | WON +$1.40 | |
| 30 Mar 19:10 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Convair Hustler | 4.70 | +0.08 | +1.7% | Sky | Harness | 23.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 30 Mar 18:35 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Amillionchances | 2.80 | -0.27 | -9.8% | Sky | Harness | 26.0% | SKIP | WON +$1.80 | |
| 30 Mar 18:06 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Studleigh Anne | 2.16 | -0.40 | -18.6% | Sky | Harness | 27.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 30 Mar 17:34 | Darren Carroll | Majestic Lord | 1.75 | -0.38 | -21.5% | SEN | Harness | 35.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 30 Mar 17:30 | Harry White | Strobing | 5.00 | +0.27 | +5.5% | RC | Horse | 25.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 30 Mar 17:30 | Sky Racing - Belinda Smith | Beearetee | 4.20 | +0.22 | +5.3% | Sky | Horse | 29.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |