| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 12 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05.Mar 20:24* | Hub | Joel Williams | AFL | Gold Coast | 2.10 | - | TRACK |
| 05.Mar 19:24* | Hub | Joel Williams | AFL | Sydney | 2.30 | - | TRACK |
| 05.Mar 18:54* | Hub | Joel Williams | AFL | St Kilda | 22.00 | - | TRACK |
| 05.Mar 18:54* | Hub | Joel Williams | AFL | Brisbane | 4.80 | - | TRACK |
| 05.Mar 17:24* | Hub | Joel Williams | AFL | Sydney | 9.40 | - | TRACK |
| 05.Mar 17:24* | Hub | Joel Williams | AFL | Gold Coast | 7.80 | - | TRACK |
| 05.Mar 15:56* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Pinjarra Scarpside... | Newhaven Prince | 9.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 15:56* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Pinjarra Scarpside... | Peter Gunn | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 15:56* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Pinjarra Scarpside... | Elegant Indi | 2.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 15:56* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Pinjarra Scarpside... | Desert Ora | 2.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 15:56* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Pinjarra Scarpside... | Luna Ascending | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 15:56* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Pinjarra Scarpside... | You Can Call Me Al | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 15:56* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Pinjarra Scarpside... | Prawns Eleven | 2.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 15:56* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Pinjarra Scarpside... | About Turn | 3.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | She's Loaded | 6.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Dane On Tour | 7.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | She's My Ex | 1.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | She's My Ex | 1.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Sweet Vixen | 2.35 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Shrewsbury Road | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Talkin' Stern | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Talkin' Stern | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Kakkoii | 6.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Nic's Choice | 4.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Irreverent | 2.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | On The Loose | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Next Jen | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Midnight Glow | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Freak Of Nature | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 05.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Alero | 2.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 1W-7L | P/L: -$4.20
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Mar 18:36 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | PAKENHAM R4 1000m Hcap | 5. Caffettiera | 3.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 05 Mar 18:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | PINJARRA R4 1200m Mdn | 4. Two Up Boom | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 05 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rebecca Hill | LADBROKES FORM GENIUS BEN... | Aspen Cowboy | 3.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.80 |
| 05 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rebecca Hill | MITAVITE QTIS Three-Year-... | Moonya Lad | 6.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 05 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | MERLANDI FARRIER SERVICES... | Jade Trees | 3.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 05 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rebecca Hill | GREAT NORTHERN BREWING CO... | From This Moment | 8.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 05 Mar 10:36 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 5th Mar | Pretty Slick | 5.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 05 Mar 10:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 5th Mar | Moonya Lad | 6.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 5W-27L | P/L: -$16.30
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Mar 21:05 | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 2. Extravaganza | 1.97 | $1.00 | WON | +$0.97 |
| 04 Mar 19:35 | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 2. White Crest | 2.58 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.58 |
| 04 Mar 18:05 | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 1. Dazzling Dynamo | 3.45 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 18:05 | Hub | Jackson Oldham | Caulfield | 7. Lonstar | 5.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 15:36 | BF | Scott Embry | DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP | Swift Talker | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 15:06 | BF | Scott Embry | INTERNATIONAL WOMENS DAY ... | Tycoon Dreamer | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 15:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Belmont (AUS) 4th Mar | Swift Talker | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 15:06 | BF | Scott Embry | QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP | So Si God | 2.76 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 15:05 | BF | Stats Insider | Phoenix Suns @ Sacramento... | Sacramento Kings | 4.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 14:36 | BF | Darren McAullay | DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP | Swift Talker | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 13:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Belmont (AUS) 4th Mar | Cannykev | 2.26 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ladbrokes Odds Surge Benc... | Montezulu | 4.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | ASAHI SUPER DRY HANDICAP | Manukau | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Dean Watling | Balaklava (AUS) 4th Mar | Flying Brant | 3.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.20 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | RACING AND SPORTS HANDICA... | Sarapo | 4.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP | Swift Talker | 3.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Nelson | LADBROKES QUICK MULTI RAT... | Tomba | 3.05 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.05 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Taylors Wines Rating 0 - ... | Serinite Illusion | 4.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.90 |
| 04 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | BMD Class One Plate | Kohala | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | TQCSI Class One Handicap | Fiabesca | 3.35 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 04 Mar 11:05 | Hub | Stats Insider | Dallas Mavericks @ Charlo... | Dallas Mavericks | 6.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 22:05 | Hub | Betfair Cricket... | South Africa v New Zealan... | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 03 Mar 20:35 | Hub | Tony Hargraves | Bournemouth v Brentford | Brentford | 2.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 17:05 | Hub | Will Norman | Menangle | 1. Caulonia Courage | 3.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 15:36 | BF | Cam Luke | Ararat (AUS) 3rd Mar | Colour Our World | 3.05 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 12:36 | BF | Adam Crettenden | Ords Motorcycles BM62 Han... | Colour Our World | 3.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 12:35 | BF | Adam Crettenden | Manhari BM56 Handicap | My Uncle Did It | 3.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 12:35 | BF | Adam Crettenden | Harris Accident Repair Ce... | Chouxdino | 3.55 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sam Lyons | bet365 Bet Boost BM56 Han... | Simply Sassy | 3.45 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sam Lyons | Manhari BM56 Handicap | My Uncle Did It | 3.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sam Lyons | Harvey Norman Ararat 3YO ... | Aradeo | 2.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sam Lyons | Ords Motorcycles BM62 Han... | Colour Our World | 2.86 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 03 Mar 10:05 | Hub | Stats Insider | Houston Rockets @ Washing... | Washington Wizards | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05.Mar 21:51 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R8 | Ethans Revenge | 1.76 | SKIP 24% | WON |
| 05.Mar 21:21 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R7 | Dance The Niteaway | 3.25 | SKIP 10% | LOST |
| 05.Mar 21:04* | Betfair Model | Betfair AFL Model | Sydney Swans v Car... | Sydney | 1.69 | - | WON |
| 05.Mar 20:51 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R6 | Fe Fe On Fire | 3.05 | SKIP 10% | LOST |
| 05.Mar 20:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R8 | Prawns Eleven | 2.44 | SKIP 18% | WON |
| 05.Mar 20:21 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R5 | Bold Medley Jujon | 2.16 | SKIP 9% | LOST |
| 05.Mar 20:00 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R7 | Luna Ascending | 5.20 | - | LOST |
| 05.Mar 19:14* | Sportsbet | Brendan Tupper | Pakenham R7 | Marlion's Dream | 5.50 | SKIP 10% | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 761 | 182W-560L | -$162.34 | -21.3% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 8,327 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.01 | Calibration: 5 points | Last Retrain: 01 Mar 21:15 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.991
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.574 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.419 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.402 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.399 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.364 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.165 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.137 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.101 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.099 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.093 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.078 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.061 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.054 |
|
| Source Edge | -0.004 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.001 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 749 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 920 | 20% | 22% | +2% |
| 25-30% | 395 | 27% | 29% | +1% |
| 30-35% | 2632 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2237 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 548 | 44% | 31% | -13% |
| 50%+ | 750 | 60% | 45% | -15% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 7 | BET: 0 | SKIP: 7 | Settled: 6 | Avg EV: -0.53 | Accuracy: 66.7% | Brier: 0.215 vs Mkt 0.164 (-0.051)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Mar 20:05 | Betfair AFL Model | Geelong | 1.81 | +0.03 | +1.5% | BET | Other | 56.7% | SKIP | pending | |
| 05 Mar 21:51 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Ethans Revenge | 1.76 | -0.59 | -33.3% | Sky | Harness | 23.5% | SKIP | WON +$0.76 | |
| 05 Mar 21:21 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Dance The Niteaway | 3.25 | -0.66 | -20.3% | Sky | Harness | 10.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 05 Mar 20:51 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Fe Fe On Fire | 3.05 | -0.71 | -23.2% | Sky | Harness | 9.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 05 Mar 20:30 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Prawns Eleven | 2.44 | -0.56 | -22.8% | Sky | Horse | 18.2% | SKIP | WON +$1.44 | |
| 05 Mar 20:21 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bold Medley Jujon | 2.16 | -0.80 | -36.9% | Sky | Harness | 9.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 05 Mar 20:15 | Brendan Tupper | Marlion's Dream | 5.50 | -0.45 | -8.2% | SB | Horse | 10.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4 (Isotonic, threshold 0.20), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3 (Platt), Green = v4 (Isotonic).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (v4) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |