| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 17 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.Mar 02:44* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Muswellbrook R3 | Siragusa | 2.00 | SKIP 20% | TRACK |
| 27.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Paul Richards | Australian Cup R8 | Apulia | 10.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Brendan Tupper | Glorious Goodwood ... | Moor Mumm | 11.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | John Barker | York Plate R2 | Cafe Au Lait | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Brendan Tupper | RNone None | Way To The Stars | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | John Barker | Lexus Roy Higgins ... | Paradise Storm | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Paul Richards | Lexus Roy Higgins ... | Litzdeel | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 23:35* | Betfair Model | Betfair AFL Model | St Kilda v Brisban... | Brisbane | 1.63 | - | TRACK |
| 26.Mar 12:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | ALBANY R3 | Niccy's Affair | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 16:56* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Marlion's Dream | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 14:56* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Tillya Tepe | 3.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Boa Vista | 2.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | First Chorus | 1.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Surperb Frost | 3.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Rorkes Drift | 3.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Sweet Vixen | 3.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Blue Bandit | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | On The Prowl | 2.45 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Tillya Tepe | 4.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Cardi Bee | 3.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Blue Bandit | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Oceans Above | 6.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Marlion's Dream | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Rorkes Drift | 3.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Pakenham... | Go Left | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ben Asgari | Southside Pakenham... | Gellhorn | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | Warrnambool R4 | She's A Jett | 2.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Warrnambool R4 | She's A Jett | 2.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Ipswich R3 | Shaque D'amour | 3.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Ipswich R1 | Glen's Hen | 20.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 2W-11L | P/L: +$0.05
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Mar 19:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | PAKENHAM R6 1400m Hcap | 3. Gellhorn | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 16:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | HAWKESBURY R7 2000m Hcap | 1. Associate | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 14:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | IPSWICH R4 1350m CL5 | 4. Nondisclosure | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 12:05 | BF | Ric McIntosh | Whalers Hotel BM62 Handic... | Kingsford | 4.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | HAWKESBURY R4 1100m Mdn | 4. Liberty Calls | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Whalers Hotel BM62 Handic... | Kingsford | 4.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 11:35 | BF | Ric McIntosh | Fresha Fruit Juices Maide... | Karburan | 3.65 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.65 |
| 26 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | GREAT NORTHERN BENCHMARK ... | Cantarito | 4.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 11:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Warrnambool (AUS) 26th Ma... | Miss Tallchief | 5.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | VOODOO RANGER CUP CLASS 1... | My Proclama | 8.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 11:05 | BF | Cam Luke | Ipswich (AUS) 26th Mar | Funhouse | 6.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 10:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Cairns (AUS) 26th Mar | Time To Prophet | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Mar 10:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Cairns (AUS) 26th Mar | Ellis Beach | 9.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$8.40 |
Record: 3W-12L | P/L: +$2.56
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Mar 15:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | EAGLE FARM R3 1200m 3yo | 2. Delicious Derek | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | SWAN DRAUGHT HANDICAP | Eternal Wine | 2.56 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.56 |
| 25 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | SHARE BETS WITH TABTOUCH ... | Jolson Al | 3.15 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | SKY RACING Class 3 Plate | Heavenly Love | 6.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | LIQUOR BARONS PLATE | Dixie Doo | 6.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$5.00 |
| 25 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Belmont (AUS) 25th Mar | Truly Gallant | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Mar 15:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | PORT MACQUARIE R5 1200m C... | 1. Tides Turning | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Mar 15:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ROCKHAMPTON R3 1400m Mdn | 6. Leica Flamingo | 9.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$8.00 |
| 24 Mar 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | YARRA VALLEY R3 1500m Mdn | 8. Crismera | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | Supagas BM60 Handicap | Storm Force Ten | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Mar 11:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | YARRA VALLEY R1 1200m 3yo | 4. Fully Funded | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Mar 11:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Rockhampton (AUS) 24th Ma... | Electric Brae | 8.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Mar 11:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Rockhampton (AUS) 24th Ma... | Heroic Talent | 7.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Mar 09:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ru... | Rockhampton (AUS) 24th Ma... | Amberinger | 7.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Mar 09:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Port Macquarie (AUS) 24th... | Master Zous | 6.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.Mar 21:51 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R8 | Captain Tids | 2.20 | SKIP 23% | LOST |
| 26.Mar 21:21 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R7 | Miss Blue Stork | 1.76 | SKIP 36% | WON |
| 26.Mar 20:51 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R6 | Unchainmyart | 1.65 | SKIP 23% | LOST |
| 26.Mar 20:45 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Pakenham R8 | 7. Cardi Bee | 2.62 | SKIP 18% | WON |
| 26.Mar 20:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Albany R7 | God Has Drifted | 3.60 | SKIP 21% | WON |
| 26.Mar 20:21 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R5 | Fire Fox | 3.85 | SKIP 18% | LOST |
| 26.Mar 20:00 | Sky | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Albany R6 | Gingers Sister | 6.40 | SKIP 17% | WON |
| 26.Mar 19:51 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R4 | Rudy Gee | 1.65 | SKIP 25% | WON |
| 26.Mar 19:45 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Pakenham R6 | 4. Here The Crowd | 4.68 | SKIP 17% | LOST |
| 26.Mar 19:45 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Pakenham R6 | 3. Gellhorn | 7.82 | BET 21% | LOST |
| 26.Mar 19:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Albany R5 | Makin Prophets | 5.00 | SKIP 23% | WON |
| 26.Mar 19:21 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R3 | Betting Star | 5.00 | SKIP 23% | LOST |
| 26.Mar 19:00 | Sky | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Albany R4 | Sir Dreamalot | 2.96 | SKIP 21% | LOST |
| 26.Mar 18:52 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R2 | Marranzano | 1.65 | SKIP 38% | LOST |
| 26.Mar 18:45 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Pakenham R4 | 4. On The Loose | 6.52 | SKIP 21% | LOST |
| 26.Mar 18:18 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Penrith R1 | Lookin Good Margie | 3.95 | SKIP 32% | WON |
| 26.Mar 18:00 | Sky | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Albany R2 | Belle Belle | 5.70 | SKIP 21% | LOST |
| 26.Mar 17:50 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Ipswich R9 | Hokkaido | 13.00 | SKIP 21% | LOST |
| 26.Mar 17:37 | Sky | Sky Racing - Dan Missen | Tamworth R8 | Mister Cheese | 3.45 | SKIP 29% | LOST |
| 26.Mar 17:30 | Racing Com | Chris Camilleri | Hawkesbury R9 | Just Awesome | 3.80 | SKIP 29% | LOST |
| 26.Mar 17:23 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Cairns R10 | 4. Line Em Up Loui | 3.47 | SKIP 19% | LOST |
| 26.Mar 17:23 | Sky | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Cairns R10 | Ellis Beach | 9.40 | BET 28% | WON |
| 26.Mar 17:20 | Sky | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Albany R1 | Cosmic Gem | 1.69 | - | LOST |
| 26.Mar 14:02 | Payload | Betfair Data Scientists | - | Thundamental | - | - | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 999 | 223W-752L | -$183.92 | -18.4% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 9,898 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 15 Mar 23:21 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.932
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.348 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.290 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.257 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.238 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.174 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.114 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.112 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.105 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.082 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.073 |
|
| Form Score | +0.054 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.050 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.039 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.039 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.034 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.034 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.022 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.021 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.019 |
|
| Barrier | +0.011 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.007 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1162 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1345 | 21% | 22% | +2% |
| 25-30% | 604 | 27% | 27% | -0% |
| 30-35% | 2768 | 34% | 28% | -5% |
| 35-40% | 2334 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 669 | 44% | 33% | -12% |
| 50%+ | 932 | 60% | 42% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 23 | BET: 2 | SKIP: 21 | Settled: 22 | Avg EV: +0.00 | Accuracy: 63.6% | Brier: 0.242 vs Mkt 0.249 (+0.006)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar 14:25 | Shayne Montgomery | Siragusa | 2.00 | -0.61 | -30.3% | SB | Horse | 19.7% | SKIP | pending | |
| 26 Mar 21:51 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Captain Tids | 2.20 | -0.50 | -22.8% | Sky | Harness | 22.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Mar 21:21 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Miss Blue Stork | 1.76 | -0.37 | -20.8% | Sky | Harness | 36.1% | SKIP | WON +$0.76 | |
| 26 Mar 20:51 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Unchainmyart | 1.65 | -0.61 | -37.2% | Sky | Harness | 23.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Mar 20:45 | Betfair Rated Model | 7. Cardi Bee | 2.62 | -0.52 | -20.0% | BF | Horse | 18.2% | SKIP | WON +$1.62 | |
| 26 Mar 20:30 | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | God Has Drifted | 3.60 | -0.25 | -7.1% | Sky | Horse | 20.7% | SKIP | WON +$2.60 | |
| 26 Mar 20:21 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Fire Fox | 3.85 | -0.29 | -7.6% | Sky | Harness | 18.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Mar 20:00 | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Gingers Sister | 6.40 | +0.06 | +0.9% | Sky | Horse | 16.6% | SKIP | WON +$5.40 | |
| 26 Mar 19:51 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Rudy Gee | 1.65 | -0.59 | -36.0% | Sky | Harness | 24.6% | SKIP | WON +$0.65 | |
| 26 Mar 19:45 | Betfair Rated Model | 4. Here The Crowd | 4.68 | -0.23 | -4.8% | BF | Horse | 16.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Mar 19:45 | Betfair Rated Model | 3. Gellhorn | 7.82 | +0.62 | +7.9% | BF | Horse | 20.7% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Mar 19:30 | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Makin Prophets | 5.00 | +0.13 | +2.5% | Sky | Horse | 22.5% | SKIP | WON +$4.00 | |
| 26 Mar 19:21 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Betting Star | 5.00 | +0.13 | +2.5% | Sky | Harness | 22.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Mar 19:00 | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Sir Dreamalot | 2.96 | -0.38 | -13.0% | Sky | Horse | 20.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Mar 18:52 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Marranzano | 1.65 | -0.37 | -22.7% | Sky | Harness | 37.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Mar 18:45 | Betfair Rated Model | 4. On The Loose | 6.52 | +0.35 | +5.4% | BF | Horse | 20.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Mar 18:18 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Lookin Good Margie | 3.95 | +0.27 | +6.7% | Sky | Harness | 32.0% | SKIP | WON +$2.95 | |
| 26 Mar 18:00 | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | Belle Belle | 5.70 | +0.21 | +3.7% | Sky | Horse | 21.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Mar 17:50 | Rebecca Hill | Hokkaido | 13.00 | +1.68 | +12.9% | RC | Horse | 20.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Mar 17:37 | Sky Racing - Dan Missen | Mister Cheese | 3.45 | -0.01 | -0.2% | Sky | Harness | 28.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Mar 17:30 | Chris Camilleri | Just Awesome | 3.80 | +0.09 | +2.3% | RC | Horse | 28.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Mar 17:23 | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Ellis Beach | 9.40 | +1.62 | +17.3% | Sky | Horse | 27.9% | BET | WON +$8.40 | |
| 26 Mar 17:23 | Betfair Rated Model | 4. Line Em Up Loui | 3.47 | -0.32 | -9.3% | BF | Horse | 19.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |