+$31.56
Total P/L
| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-24T05:35 | Betfair Rated Model | 6. Booya Boy | 9.40 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-24T04:35 | Mitch Lewis | 6. Associate | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-23T23:05 | The Leg Up | 2. The Hamo | 2.98 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 11 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.Feb 07:14* | Sportsbet | Paul Kelly | Ascot R8 | Linchpin | 6.00 | SKIP 6% | TRACK |
| 28.Feb 07:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | Ascot R8 | The Crimson Pirate | 4.40 | SKIP 14% | TRACK |
| 28.Feb 04:54* | Hub | 2 UNITS | Flemington | 2. Dirty Grin | 9.20 | SKIP 12% | TRACK |
| 28.Feb 04:45 | Payload | Betfair Data Scientists | - | Stenmark | - | SKIP 34% | TRACK |
| 28.Feb 04:24* | Hub | 2 UNITS | Flemington | 8. Gold Medallist | 9.80 | BET 53% | BET |
| 28.Feb 04:14* | Sportsbet | Joel Marshall | Ascot (AUS) 28th F... | Justabittapress | 7.50 | SKIP 6% | TRACK |
| 28.Feb 04:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | Ascot (AUS) 28th F... | Snow God | 2.00 | SKIP 47% | TRACK |
| 28.Feb 03:44* | Sportsbet | Paul Kelly | Ascot (AUS) 28th F... | Fancy Red | 1.90 | SKIP 51% | TRACK |
| 28.Feb 01:54* | Hub | 2 UNITS | Randwick | 10. Bryant | 4.50 | BET 35% | BET |
| 28.Feb 00:54* | Hub | 2 UNITS | Flemington | 6. Gin Twist | 4.30 | BET 62% | BET |
| 27.Feb 23:54* | Hub | Tony Hargraves | Wolves v Aston Vil... | Aston Villa | 1.89 | SKIP 47% | TRACK |
| 27.Feb 17:14* | Sportsbet | Adam Williams | RNone None | Hell Follows | 23.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 17:14* | Sportsbet | Adam Williams | RNone None | Steffi Electrica | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 14:26* | Racing Com | Chris Camilleri | Canterbury Park R3 | Savvy Spy | 2.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 14:26* | Racing Com | Jarrod Wessel | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Love To Lie | 3.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 14:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Love To Lie | 3.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 13:56* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Agreeance | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 13:56* | Racing Com | Jarrod Wessel | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Agreeance | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 13:56* | Racing Com | John Kelton | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Explicable | 3.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Star Casino | 3.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Messerschmitt | 10.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Warm Breeze | 6.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Fashizlemanizle | 1.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Thinkingnintynine | 2.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | La Petite | 3.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | The Wirrulla Boy | 3.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Spreadsheets | 51.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Mark Mathews | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Burning Bright | 8.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 12:56* | Racing Com | Jarrod Wessel | Sportsbet Port Lin... | La Petite | 3.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 27.Feb 12:56* | Racing Com | Jarrod Wessel | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Warm Breeze | 7.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 2W-8L | 5 pending | P/L: -$4.76
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 04:35 | Hub | 2 UNITS | Flemington | 8. Gold Medallist | 8.60 | $1.00 | PENDING | - |
| 28 Feb 02:05 | Hub | 2 UNITS | Randwick | 10. Bryant | 4.30 | $1.00 | PENDING | - |
| 28 Feb 01:05 | Hub | 2 UNITS | Flemington | 6. Gin Twist | 4.30 | $1.00 | PENDING | - |
| 27 Feb 23:35 | Hub | Betfair Data Sc... | Newbury | Innamorato | 5.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Feb 21:35 | Hub | Michael Tye | Geelong | 1. Prince Laroi | 6.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Feb 20:05 | Hub | Mitch Lewis | Canterbury | 4. Kimberley Secrets | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Feb 19:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CANTERBURY R5 1250m Hcap | 7. Slinky | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Feb 19:35 | Hub | Michael Tye | Geelong | 5. Snow Road | 3.15 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Feb 17:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 27th Feb | Burlington Arcade | 2.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.40 |
| 27 Feb 12:05 | Hub | Mitch Lewis | Canterbury | 5. Kenmare Bay | 3.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Feb 11:35 | Hub | Matt Welsh | Flemington | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 | PENDING | - |
| 27 Feb 11:05 | Hub | Ben Asgari | Flemington | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 | PENDING | - |
| 27 Feb 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 27th Feb | Storm Capital | 2.84 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.84 |
| 27 Feb 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 27th Feb | Whirlwind | 2.96 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Feb 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 27th Feb | Super Freeze | 3.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Feb 09:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ga... | Ballina (AUS) 27th Feb | Spicy Wings | 3.30 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 27 Feb 09:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ga... | Ballina (AUS) 27th Feb | Poised Tycoon | 3.35 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
Record: 13W-30L | P/L: +$5.45
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb 21:05 | Hub | Michael Tye | Sandown Park | 2. Lochinvar Nugget | 4.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 21:05 | Hub | Michael Tye | Sandown Park | 1. Shes Primed | 3.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 20:05 | Hub | Jackson Oldham | Pakenham | 1. Plunger | 4.50 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.50 |
| 26 Feb 17:35 | Hub | Glenn Ingram | Pakenham | 5. Stuntman | 2.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 17:05 | Hub | Michael Tye | Sandown Park | 5. Dear Carla Lou | 2.34 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 15:36 | BF | Ben Asgari | Pakenham (AUS) 26th Feb | Savoyard | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 15:35 | BF | Stats Insider | Ipswich | 5. Hermione Prancer | 2.28 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.28 |
| 26 Feb 15:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | GREAT NORTHERN Class 2 Ha... | Meadowbrook | 3.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 15:35 | BF | Ben Asgari | Pakenham (AUS) 26th Feb | Ocean Bay | 4.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 15:35 | Hub | Betfair Data Sc... | Mount Gambier | 4. Rickis Burner | 5.70 | $1.00 | WON | +$4.70 |
| 26 Feb 12:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Wyong (AUS) 26th Feb | Saytara | 2.44 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | SURA MAIDEN | Cosmic Gem | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 11:36 | BF | Rebecca Hill | TAB QTIS Three-Years-Old ... | Bent Bridge | 3.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.90 |
| 26 Feb 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | REWARD HOMES SUPER MAIDEN... | Saytara | 2.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 11:36 | BF | Rebecca Hill | POCO VINO Class 1 Handica... | Hermione Prancer | 2.24 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.24 |
| 26 Feb 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | MGIB HANDICAP | Safedeel | 2.66 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.66 |
| 26 Feb 11:36 | BF | Rebecca Hill | RIVER 96.9FM Class 2 Hand... | San Jose Boy | 3.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.90 |
| 26 Feb 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | THE ARY MIDWAY CLASS 1 HA... | Listen Sweetheart | 3.85 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.85 |
| 26 Feb 11:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Tamworth (AUS) 26th Feb | Carramar Olam | 3.05 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 11:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Tamworth (AUS) 26th Feb | Kintire Rush | 2.94 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 11:05 | Hub | Stats Insider | Oklahoma City Thunder @ D... | Oklahoma City Thunder | 4.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 06:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Wyong (AUS) 26th Feb | Missile Magnate | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 26 Feb 01:35 | Hub | Betfair Cricket... | West Indies v South Afric... | West Indies | 2.94 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 21:35 | Hub | Betfair Data Sc... | Wincanton | Shalfa | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 20:35 | Hub | Betfair Data Sc... | Bangor-on-Dee | Halftheworldaway | 2.86 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.86 |
| 25 Feb 19:05 | BF | Darren McAullay | SHARE BETS WITH TABTOUCH ... | Champagne Crusader | 4.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.90 |
| 25 Feb 18:35 | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 7. Unacceptable Nik | 2.26 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.26 |
| 25 Feb 17:05 | Hub | Darren and Bret... | Mildura | 3. Magic Matty | 3.75 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 16:05 | Hub | Steve Christie | Launceston | 6. Distrustful Award | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 15:35 | Hub | Steve Christie | Launceston | 7. Miss Keeds | 8.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 15:35 | Hub | Jackson Oldham | Sandown | 3. Bluestone | 2.98 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 15:05 | BF | Scott Embry | SHARE BETS WITH TABTOUCH ... | Mighty Hosanna | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 15:05 | BF | Scott Embry | RELIABLE ASSET MAINTENANC... | Cheyne Bay | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 14:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Sandown (AUS) 25th Feb | Wentworth Falls | 9.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 13:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Dynamic Finance Brokers T... | Agnete | 4.70 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.70 |
| 25 Feb 13:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Rosehill (AUS) 25th Feb | Samarelle | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 12:35 | BF | Jared Timms | Rosehill (AUS) 25th Feb | Sphere | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | RELIABLE ASSET MAINTENANC... | Cheyne Bay | 3.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | SHARE BETS WITH TABTOUCH ... | Champagne Crusader | 4.70 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.70 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | Sunset Soiree Book Now BM... | Tophet | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | Girls Day Out 7 March Fil... | Edge Of Infinity | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | Hub | Stats Insider | Charlotte Hornets @ Chica... | Chicago Bulls | 3.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | Hub | Stats Insider | Washington Wizards @ Atla... | Washington Wizards | 6.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.Feb 01:30 | Payload | Betfair Data Scientists | - | Innamorato | - | SKIP 34% | LOST |
| 28.Feb 00:42 | Payload | Betfair Data Scientists | - | My Awele | - | SKIP 34% | LOST |
| 27.Feb 23:24* | Hub | Betfair Data Scientists | Wolverhampton | Stenmark | 10.50 | SKIP 13% | LOST |
| 27.Feb 23:24* | Hub | Betfair Data Scientists | Newbury | Innamorato | 5.70 | BET 33% | LOST |
| 27.Feb 22:24* | Hub | Scott Hill | Gloucester Park | 1. Girl Of Brightness | 10.50 | SKIP 12% | LOST |
| 27.Feb 22:24* | Hub | Betfair Data Scientists | Lingfield | My Awele | 12.00 | SKIP 11% | LOST |
| 27.Feb 22:09 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sunshine Coast R8 | Miss Adrift | 2.05 | SKIP 52% | VOID |
| 27.Feb 21:54* | Hub | Scott Hill | Gloucester Park | 8. Little Darling | 2.52 | SKIP 35% | LOST |
| 27.Feb 21:38 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sunshine Coast R7 | Vredefort | 15.00 | SKIP 6% | VOID |
| 27.Feb 21:24* | Hub | Michael Tye | Geelong | 1. Prince Laroi | 1.89 | SKIP 62% | LOST |
| 27.Feb 21:24* | Hub | Michael Tye | Geelong | 1. Prince Laroi | 6.00 | BET 45% | LOST |
| 27.Feb 21:24* | Hub | Will Norman | Newcastle | 8. Next To Me | 4.40 | SKIP 8% | LOST |
| 27.Feb 21:08 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sunshine Coast R6 | Double Whammy | 7.50 | SKIP 10% | VOID |
| 27.Feb 20:54* | Hub | Michael Tye | Geelong | 8. Lissys A Demon | 3.25 | BET 55% | LOST |
| 27.Feb 20:54* | Hub | Michael Tye | Geelong | 5. Archie Rolls | 9.80 | BET 39% | WON |
| 27.Feb 20:38 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sunshine Coast R5 | Extreme Ally | 17.00 | SKIP 9% | VOID |
| 27.Feb 20:24* | Hub | Scott Hill | Gloucester Park | 1. Miss Aura | 2.30 | SKIP 54% | LOST |
| 27.Feb 20:08 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sunshine Coast R4 | Trapeze Warrior | 8.50 | SKIP 9% | VOID |
| 27.Feb 20:00 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Canterbury R5 | 7. Slinky | 7.35 | BET 20% | LOST |
| 27.Feb 19:54* | Hub | Darren and Brett Carroll | Ararat | 4. Keayang Passion | 1.22 | SKIP 62% | WON |
| 27.Feb 19:54* | Hub | Mitch Lewis | Canterbury | 4. Kimberley Secrets | 4.20 | BET 35% | LOST |
| 27.Feb 19:54* | Hub | Scott Hill | Gloucester Park | 3. Lincoln River | 2.18 | SKIP 37% | WON |
| 27.Feb 19:54* | Hub | Will Norman | Newcastle | 1. Sunset Hill | 10.50 | SKIP 6% | WON |
| 27.Feb 19:24* | Hub | Michael Tye | Geelong | 5. Snow Road | 3.15 | BET 57% | LOST |
| 27.Feb 19:24* | Hub | Jackson Oldham | Cranbourne | 3. Attachments | 1.67 | SKIP 59% | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 448 | 142W-292L | -$95.11 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 669 | 174W-477L | -$118.72 | -17.7% |
Model: logistic_v4 | Training Data: 7,505 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.01 | Calibration: 5 points | Last Retrain: 25 Feb 13:22 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -1.024
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.509 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.425 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.416 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.335 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.298 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.278 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.204 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.112 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.102 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.074 |
|
| Source Edge | -0.035 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.026 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.001 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 482 | 9% | 16% | +7% |
| 15-25% | 837 | 21% | 21% | +1% |
| 25-30% | 341 | 27% | 30% | +3% |
| 30-35% | 2583 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2202 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 451 | 44% | 29% | -15% |
| 50%+ | 599 | 60% | 45% | -15% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 39 | BET: 12 | SKIP: 27 | Settled: 26 | Avg EV: +0.31 | Accuracy: 65.4% | Brier: 0.188 vs Mkt 0.153 (-0.036)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 19:10 | Paul Kelly | Linchpin | 6.00 | -0.64 | -10.7% | SB | Horse | 6.0% | SKIP | pending | |
| 28 Feb 19:10 | Greg Hooper | The Crimson Pirate | 4.40 | -0.39 | -8.8% | SB | Horse | 13.9% | SKIP | pending | |
| 28 Feb 16:04 | Joel Marshall | Justabittapress | 7.50 | -0.55 | -7.4% | SB | Horse | 6.0% | SKIP | pending | |
| 28 Feb 16:04 | Greg Hooper | Snow God | 2.00 | -0.06 | -3.1% | SB | Horse | 46.9% | SKIP | pending | |
| 28 Feb 15:28 | Paul Kelly | Fancy Red | 1.90 | -0.04 | -1.9% | SB | Horse | 50.7% | SKIP | pending | |
| 28 Feb 15:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | +0.56 | +12.0% | Hub | Horse | 33.3% | BET | pending | |
| 28 Feb 12:45 | 2 UNITS | 8. Gold Medallist | 8.60 | +3.60 | +41.8% | Hub | Horse | 53.4% | BET | pending | |
| 28 Feb 12:45 | 2 UNITS | 2. Dirty Grin | 9.00 | +0.08 | +0.8% | Hub | Horse | 11.9% | SKIP | pending | |
| 28 Feb 12:30 | 2 UNITS | 10. Bryant | 4.30 | +0.50 | +11.6% | Hub | Horse | 34.9% | BET | pending | |
| 28 Feb 12:15 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | +0.94 | +19.2% | Hub | Horse | 39.6% | BET | pending | |
| 28 Feb 12:15 | 2 UNITS | 6. Gin Twist | 4.30 | +1.65 | +38.4% | Hub | Horse | 61.6% | BET | pending | |
| 28 Feb 07:00 | Tony Hargraves | Aston Villa | 1.89 | -0.10 | -5.4% | Hub | Other | 47.5% | SKIP | pending | |
| 28 Feb 04:45 | Betfair Data Scientists | NO BF Stenmark | - | -0.31 | -15.7% | BF | Other | 34.3% | SKIP | pending | |
| 28 Feb 04:45 | Betfair Data Scientists | Stenmark | 10.50 | +0.32 | +3.0% | Hub | Horse | 12.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Feb 01:30 | Betfair Data Scientists | NO BF Innamorato | - | -0.31 | -15.7% | BF | Other | 34.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Feb 01:30 | Betfair Data Scientists | Innamorato | 5.80 | +0.91 | +15.7% | Hub | Horse | 33.0% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Feb 01:22 | Scott Hill | 1. Girl Of Brightness | 10.50 | +0.28 | +2.6% | Hub | Horse | 12.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Feb 00:42 | Betfair Data Scientists | My Awele | 12.00 | +0.37 | +3.1% | Hub | Horse | 11.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Feb 00:42 | Betfair Data Scientists | NO BF My Awele | - | -0.31 | -15.7% | BF | Other | 34.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 28 Feb 00:30 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.14 | +0.09 | +4.2% | Hub | Other | 50.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Feb 23:29 | Scott Hill | 8. Little Darling | 2.42 | -0.15 | -6.0% | Hub | Horse | 35.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Feb 22:57 | Michael Tye | 1. Prince Laroi | 1.93 | +0.19 | +9.8% | Hub | Other | 61.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Feb 22:57 | Michael Tye | 1. Prince Laroi | 6.20 | +1.82 | +29.3% | Hub | Other | 45.4% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Feb 22:15 | Will Norman | 8. Next To Me | 4.20 | -0.67 | -15.9% | Hub | Horse | 7.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Feb 22:12 | Michael Tye | 8. Lissys A Demon | 3.25 | +0.80 | +24.6% | Hub | Other | 55.4% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Feb 22:09 | Rebecca Hill | Miss Adrift | 2.05 | +0.06 | +2.9% | RC | Horse | 51.7% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 27 Feb 21:53 | Michael Tye | 5. Archie Rolls | 9.80 | +2.83 | +28.9% | Hub | Other | 39.1% | BET | WON +$0.11 | |
| 27 Feb 21:38 | Rebecca Hill | Vredefort | 15.00 | -0.10 | -0.7% | RC | Horse | 6.0% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 27 Feb 21:25 | Scott Hill | 1. Miss Aura | 1.76 | -0.05 | -2.7% | Hub | Horse | 54.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Feb 21:08 | Rebecca Hill | Double Whammy | 7.50 | -0.24 | -3.2% | RC | Horse | 10.1% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 27 Feb 21:07 | Darren and Brett Carroll | 4. Keayang Passion | 1.22 | -0.25 | -20.3% | Hub | Horse | 61.6% | SKIP | WON +$0.22 | |
| 27 Feb 21:00 | Mitch Lewis | 4. Kimberley Secrets | 4.00 | +0.40 | +10.0% | Hub | Horse | 35.0% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Feb 20:55 | Scott Hill | 3. Lincoln River | 2.16 | -0.20 | -9.5% | Hub | Horse | 36.8% | SKIP | WON +$1.18 | |
| 27 Feb 20:48 | Will Norman | 1. Sunset Hill | 10.50 | -0.37 | -3.5% | Hub | Horse | 6.0% | SKIP | WON +$0.11 | |
| 27 Feb 20:38 | Rebecca Hill | Extreme Ally | 17.00 | +0.58 | +3.4% | RC | Horse | 9.3% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 27 Feb 20:27 | Michael Tye | 5. Snow Road | 3.15 | +0.78 | +24.8% | Hub | Other | 56.6% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Feb 20:15 | Jackson Oldham | 3. Attachments | 1.67 | -0.01 | -0.5% | Hub | Horse | 59.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 27 Feb 20:08 | Rebecca Hill | Trapeze Warrior | 8.50 | -0.20 | -2.4% | RC | Horse | 9.4% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 27 Feb 20:00 | Betfair Rated Model | 7. Slinky | 7.35 | +0.46 | +6.3% | BF | Horse | 19.9% | BET | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4 (Isotonic, threshold 0.20), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3 (Platt), Green = v4 (Isotonic).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (v4) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |