+$43.41
Total P/L
| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 12 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.Mar 03:44* | Sportsbet | Howard Walter | Warwick R4 | Rock The Sunrise | 3.20 | SKIP 36% | TRACK |
| 10.Mar 01:44* | Sportsbet | Howard Walter | Warwick (AUS) 10th... | Norty Forty | 3.30 | SKIP 28% | TRACK |
| 10.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Tab R8 | Satirically | 6.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | Irresistible Pools... | Compensation | 2.15 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 15:14* | Sportsbet | Howard Walter | RNone None | Norty Forty | 3.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 15:14* | Sportsbet | Howard Walter | Picklebet Pickle P... | Rock The Sunrise | 3.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 13:38* | SEN | Nick Noonan | Devonport Syntheti... | Thickskinned | 2.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 13:38* | SEN | Nick Noonan | Devonport Syntheti... | Light Work | 15.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 12:56* | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Devonport Tapeta S... | Bayside | 4.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 11:38* | SEN | Campbell Brown | Devonport Syntheti... | Material Madam | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Devonport Tapeta S... | Light Work | 16.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Devonport Tapeta S... | Scarletti | 8.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Devonport Tapeta S... | Thickskinned | 2.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Devonport Tapeta S... | Bright Night | 3.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Devonport Tapeta S... | Awesome Orphan | 2.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Devonport Tapeta S... | Material Madam | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Devonport Tapeta S... | Agnete | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Harry White | Coffs Harbour R1 | Artie's Magic | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Andre Kassay | Hygain Edge R8 | So Suave | 3.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Andre Kassay | Hygain Edge R6 | Wazing | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Mar 12:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Craig Morrison | ALBANY R5 | Where's My Lunch | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Mar 16:44* | Sportsbet | Ian Humphries | RNone None | Hammering Away | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Mar 15:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | CARRICK PARK R3 | I Am Caesar | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 09.Mar 07:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | COFFS HARBOUR R1 | Artie's Magic | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast Pol... | Coco Jewel | 8.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast Pol... | Torque Too Easy | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast Pol... | Missile Away | 8.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast Pol... | Double Whammy | 3.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast Pol... | Spies On | 1.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Sunshine Coast Pol... | Flying Rothe | 3.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 7W-6L | P/L: +$14.96
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Mar 14:35 | BF | Luke Hovhanesia... | Cowra (AUS) 9th Mar | Tartan Tiger | 4.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 09 Mar 14:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Du... | Devonport (AUS) 9th Mar | Bright Night | 3.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 09 Mar 14:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Du... | Devonport (AUS) 9th Mar | Hartman | 2.98 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.98 |
| 09 Mar 14:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Co... | Cowra (AUS) 9th Mar | Tartan Tiger | 2.86 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 09 Mar 13:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Cowra (AUS) 9th Mar | Tartan Tiger | 2.86 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 09 Mar 12:05 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Sungold Milk BM66 Handica... | Morgana | 3.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.90 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Standing Tall In Warrnamb... | Off His Roca | 2.88 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.88 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | Rexco Handicap | Just A Brother | 7.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$6.00 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | The Fotobase Group Morphe... | Dirty Old Town | 3.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | Sportsbet More Places Han... | Miss Slipstream | 3.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.20 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | Adam Crettenden | Sungold Milk BM66 Handica... | Morgana | 3.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.90 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | Sportsbet Feed Handicap | Brown Nose Day Gal | 4.10 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.10 |
| 09 Mar 07:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Coffs Harbour (AUS) 9th M... | Kirkall | 2.86 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 12W-33L | P/L: +$2.67
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar 12:05 | BF | Adam Olszanski | Danny O’Brien MP 0 - 56 H... | Hey Bella | 2.56 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.56 |
| 08 Mar 12:05 | BF | Clint Hutchison | TAC Rob Meyer 0 - 56 Hand... | Ginger Sweet | 2.56 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 11:35 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Ladbrokes Stony Creek Cup | Regal Lion | 3.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 11:35 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Meeniyan Hotel After Part... | Mr Margolin | 3.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | JTS REALTY SHOWCASE 2YO H... | Drumfire | 4.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.80 |
| 08 Mar 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Echuca (AUS) 8th Mar | Martial Music | 2.56 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.56 |
| 08 Mar 11:35 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Danny O’Brien MP 0 - 56 H... | Hey Bella | 2.56 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.56 |
| 08 Mar 11:35 | BF | Adam Olszanski | TAC Rob Meyer 0 - 56 Hand... | Ginger Sweet | 2.56 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 11:05 | BF | Miles Pfitzner | Canberra (AUS) 8th Mar | Watson | 2.42 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 11:05 | BF | David Taggart | Echuca (AUS) 8th Mar | Justadeel | 2.72 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 11:05 | BF | David Taggart | Echuca (AUS) 8th Mar | Table Twentyeight | 3.55 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 11:05 | BF | Miles Pfitzner | Canberra (AUS) 8th Mar | Travolta | 2.78 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Mar 11:05 | BF | David Taggart | Echuca (AUS) 8th Mar | Baganov | 2.24 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.24 |
| 07 Mar 15:05 | BF | Sam Hyland | Eagle Farm (AUS) 7th Mar | Rezone | 3.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 13:05 | BF | David Strehlau | TAB & World Pool Kewney S... | Salty Pearl | 2.92 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 12:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | BUNBURY VOLKSWAGEN HANDIC... | Swingman | 3.60 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.60 |
| 07 Mar 12:35 | BF | Clint Hutchison | TAB & World Pool Kewney S... | Salty Pearl | 2.98 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Bunbury (AUS) 7th Mar | Western Lady | 3.55 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 12:05 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Kirin Ichiban Shaftesbury... | Persian Spirit | 4.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 12:05 | BF | Ben Asgari | Good Friday Appeal Ottawa... | Simply Steffi | 7.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 12:05 | BF | Brent Zerafa | TAB & World Pool Kewney S... | Salty Pearl | 2.92 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 11:36 | BF | Harry White | TURF PRO RENOVATIONS CLAS... | Miles Of Glory | 4.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | MGIB HANDICAP | Essentric Nature | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 11:35 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Kirin Ichiban Shaftesbury... | Persian Spirit | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | MORETON HIRE BENCHMARK 80... | Kureder | 3.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.90 |
| 07 Mar 11:35 | BF | Adam Olszanski | Costello Rural Towong Cup | Blushing Tycoon | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 11:35 | BF | Ben Asgari | Kirin Ichiban Shaftesbury... | Cafe Millenium | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | Randwick (AUS) 7th Mar | Autumn Boy | 3.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 11:35 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Sharp EIT The All-Star Mi... | Tom Kitten | 4.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.20 |
| 07 Mar 11:35 | BF | Ben Asgari | TAB & World Pool Kewney S... | Salty Pearl | 2.92 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | MAGIC MILLIONS MARCH YEAR... | Kokatahi | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | ESSENTIAL ASSET AND FIRE ... | Eureka Rebel | 4.50 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.50 |
| 07 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | STAR GROUP EQUIPMENT BENC... | Throttle Response | 4.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | TABTOUCH BUNBURY STAKES | Bonjoy | 6.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$5.80 |
| 07 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | REDINK RUN HANDICAP | Western Lady | 3.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 11:35 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Good Friday Appeal Ottawa... | Simply Steffi | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | SWAN DRAUGHT BUNBURY CUP | Silver Eye | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 10:05 | BF | David Gately | Randwick (AUS) 7th Mar | Beiwacht | 9.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sam Hyland | Bunbury (AUS) 7th Mar | True Player | 6.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$5.20 |
| 07 Mar 10:05 | BF | Mick Gannon | Randwick (AUS) 7th Mar | Agrarian Girl | 3.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sam Hyland | Murray Bridge (AUS) 7th M... | Florey | 2.52 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 09:35 | BF | Travis Noonan | Edenhope (AUS) 7th Mar | Flying Basil | 5.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 09:35 | BF | Travis Noonan | Edenhope (AUS) 7th Mar | Rubiquity | 4.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 07 Mar 09:35 | BF | Travis Noonan | Randwick (AUS) 7th Mar | Pinito | 3.75 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.75 |
| 07 Mar 09:35 | BF | Travis Noonan | Flemington (AUS) 7th Mar | Damask Rose | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09.Mar 20:50 | SEN | Glen Moore | Pinjarra R9 | Justasmooth Miki | 3.60 | SKIP 12% | LOST |
| 09.Mar 19:10 | SEN | Glen Moore | Pinjarra R6 | South Side Story Nz | 1.07 | SKIP 49% | LOST |
| 09.Mar 18:05 | Racing Com | John Kelton | Morphettville R9 | Miss Aria | 3.80 | SKIP 8% | LOST |
| 09.Mar 17:45 | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | Warrnambool R8 | Ottelia | 4.80 | SKIP 15% | LOST |
| 09.Mar 17:45 | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | Warrnambool R8 | Ottelia | 4.80 | SKIP 24% | LOST |
| 09.Mar 17:37 | SEN | Glen Moore | Pinjarra R3 | Beatitlikebeca | 1.45 | SKIP 50% | LOST |
| 09.Mar 17:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Colin Hodges | Cowra R8 | Desirous | 1.16 | SKIP 49% | LOST |
| 09.Mar 17:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Ben Walker | Cowra R8 | Falcon Gold | 4.60 | SKIP 14% | WON |
| 09.Mar 17:25 | Racing Com | John Kelton | Morphettville R8 | Dirty Old Town | 3.80 | BET 62% | LOST |
| 09.Mar 17:25 | SEN | Cam Luke | Morphettville R8 | Bootlegger | 7.00 | SKIP 9% | WON |
| 09.Mar 17:19 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Devonport R7 | 4. Manhattan Nights | 7.02 | SKIP 7% | LOST |
| 09.Mar 17:19 | Sky | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Devonport R7 | Lindrum | 5.30 | SKIP 16% | LOST |
| 09.Mar 17:15 | Sky | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Coffs Harbour R7 | Cardsharp | 5.80 | SKIP 10% | LOST |
| 09.Mar 17:15 | Racing Com | Harry White | Coffs Harbour R7 | Cardsharp | 5.00 | SKIP 16% | LOST |
| 09.Mar 17:05 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | WARRNAMBOOL R7 235... | 4. Vellasglory | 6.60 | - | LOST |
| 09.Mar 17:05 | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | Warrnambool R7 | Flashlight | 2.70 | SKIP 29% | LOST |
| 09.Mar 17:05 | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | Warrnambool R7 | Off His Roca | 2.90 | BET 45% | WON |
| 09.Mar 17:05 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | WARRNAMBOOL R7 235... | 8. Cousins Day | 6.46 | - | LOST |
| 09.Mar 16:50 | Sky | Sky Racing - Colin Hodges | Cowra R7 | Argyle Laird | 12.00 | SKIP 7% | LOST |
| 09.Mar 16:50 | SEN | Cam Luke | Cowra R7 | Hey Jude | 2.50 | SKIP 19% | WON |
| 09.Mar 16:50 | Sky | Sky Racing - Ben Walker | Cowra R7 | Hey Jude | 2.56 | SKIP 13% | WON |
| 09.Mar 16:45 | SEN | Cam Luke | Morphettville R7 | Eventually | 23.00 | SKIP 7% | LOST |
| 09.Mar 16:45 | Racing Com | John Kelton | Morphettville R7 | Berkeley Square | 5.00 | SKIP 8% | LOST |
| 09.Mar 16:35 | Sky | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Devonport R6 | Hartman | 4.30 | SKIP 17% | WON |
| 09.Mar 16:35 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | DEVONPORT R6 1350m... | 2. Whippin Piccadilly | 6.28 | - | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 809 | 193W-597L | -$136.67 | -16.9% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 8,690 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.01 | Calibration: 5 points | Last Retrain: 09 Mar 18:15 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -1.009
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.566 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.457 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.447 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.397 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.370 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.157 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.147 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.113 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.093 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.089 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.087 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.080 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.025 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.016 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.005 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 909 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 977 | 20% | 23% | +2% |
| 25-30% | 414 | 27% | 29% | +2% |
| 30-35% | 2656 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2248 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 581 | 44% | 31% | -13% |
| 50%+ | 808 | 60% | 44% | -16% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 30 | BET: 4 | SKIP: 26 | Settled: 28 | Avg EV: -0.17 | Accuracy: 71.4% | Brier: 0.276 vs Mkt 0.285 (+0.009)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar 15:27 | Howard Walter | Rock The Sunrise | 3.20 | +0.14 | +4.3% | SB | Horse | 35.5% | SKIP | pending | |
| 10 Mar 13:34 | Howard Walter | Norty Forty | 3.30 | -0.09 | -2.7% | SB | Horse | 27.6% | SKIP | pending | |
| 09 Mar 20:50 | Glen Moore | Justasmooth Miki | 3.60 | -0.56 | -15.6% | SEN | Harness | 12.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 19:10 | Glen Moore | South Side Story Nz | 1.07 | -0.48 | -44.9% | SEN | Harness | 48.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 18:05 | John Kelton | Miss Aria | 3.80 | -0.69 | -18.1% | RC | Horse | 8.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 17:45 | Brent Zerafa | Ottelia | 4.80 | +0.13 | +2.7% | RC | Horse | 23.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 17:45 | Adam Crettenden | Ottelia | 4.80 | -0.28 | -5.8% | RC | Horse | 15.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 17:37 | Glen Moore | Beatitlikebeca | 1.45 | -0.27 | -18.9% | SEN | Harness | 50.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 17:30 | Sky Racing - Ben Walker | Falcon Gold | 4.60 | -0.34 | -7.4% | Sky | Horse | 14.4% | SKIP | WON +$3.60 | |
| 09 Mar 17:30 | Sky Racing - Colin Hodges | Desirous | 1.16 | -0.43 | -37.0% | Sky | Horse | 49.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 17:25 | Cam Luke | Bootlegger | 7.00 | -0.38 | -5.5% | SEN | Horse | 8.8% | SKIP | WON +$6.00 | |
| 09 Mar 17:25 | John Kelton | Dirty Old Town | 3.80 | +1.36 | +35.7% | RC | Horse | 62.0% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 17:19 | Betfair Rated Model | 4. Manhattan Nights | 7.02 | -0.49 | -7.0% | BF | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 17:19 | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Lindrum | 5.30 | -0.14 | -2.7% | Sky | Horse | 16.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 17:15 | Harry White | Cardsharp | 5.00 | -0.20 | -4.0% | RC | Horse | 16.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 17:15 | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Cardsharp | 5.80 | -0.42 | -7.3% | Sky | Horse | 9.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 17:05 | Adam Crettenden | Flashlight | 2.70 | -0.22 | -8.1% | RC | Horse | 28.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 17:05 | Brent Zerafa | Off His Roca | 2.90 | +0.29 | +10.0% | RC | Horse | 44.5% | BET | WON +$2.10 | |
| 09 Mar 16:50 | Sky Racing - Ben Walker | Hey Jude | 2.56 | -0.68 | -26.6% | Sky | Horse | 12.5% | SKIP | WON +$1.56 | |
| 09 Mar 16:50 | Sky Racing - Colin Hodges | Argyle Laird | 12.00 | -0.14 | -1.1% | Sky | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 16:50 | Cam Luke | Hey Jude | 2.50 | -0.52 | -20.9% | SEN | Horse | 19.1% | SKIP | WON +$1.50 | |
| 09 Mar 16:45 | John Kelton | Berkeley Square | 5.00 | -0.61 | -12.1% | RC | Horse | 7.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 16:45 | Cam Luke | Eventually | 23.00 | +0.66 | +2.9% | SEN | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 16:35 | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Hartman | 4.30 | -0.25 | -5.9% | Sky | Horse | 17.4% | SKIP | WON +$2.05 | |
| 09 Mar 16:30 | Luke Hovhanesian | Sneaky Rich | 4.40 | -0.47 | -10.7% | SEN | Horse | 12.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 16:30 | Harry White | Danxia | 3.20 | -0.53 | -16.5% | RC | Horse | 14.7% | SKIP | WON +$2.20 | |
| 09 Mar 16:30 | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Danxia | 3.30 | -0.70 | -21.1% | Sky | Horse | 9.2% | SKIP | WON +$2.30 | |
| 09 Mar 16:30 | Cam Luke | Trounce | 4.60 | +0.19 | +4.2% | SEN | Horse | 25.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 09 Mar 16:20 | Adam Crettenden | Morgana | 4.00 | +0.35 | +8.7% | RC | Horse | 33.7% | BET | WON +$3.20 | |
| 09 Mar 16:20 | Brent Zerafa | Morgana | 4.00 | +0.79 | +19.7% | RC | Horse | 44.7% | BET | WON +$3.10 |
Solid = v4 (Isotonic, threshold 0.20), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3 (Platt), Green = v4/v5 (Isotonic).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.20). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4/v5 decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (v4) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |