+$31.56
Total P/L
| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-24T05:35 | Betfair Rated Model | 6. Booya Boy | 9.40 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-24T04:35 | Mitch Lewis | 6. Associate | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-23T23:05 | The Leg Up | 2. The Hamo | 2.98 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 9 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.Feb 05:44* | Sportsbet | Dean Watling | Alino Living R8 | Missile Magnate | 9.50 | BET 17% | BET |
| 26.Feb 01:44* | Sportsbet | Dean Watling | Api Engineering Md... | So D'oro | 2.15 | SKIP 51% | TRACK |
| 26.Feb 01:24* | Hub | Betfair Cricket Trader | West Indies v Sout... | West Indies | 2.90 | - | BET |
| 26.Feb 00:14* | Sportsbet | Dean Watling | Alino Living R8 | Missile Magnate | 9.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 26.Feb 00:14* | Sportsbet | Dean Watling | Api Engineering Md... | So D'oro | 2.15 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 11:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | BELMONT R5 | Poppy's Roses | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 11:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | BELMONT R3 | Buster's Babe | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 18:56* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Belmont R4 | Savorski | 2.45 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 18:56* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Belmont R5 | Poppy's Roses | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 14:56* | Racing Com | Scott Embry | Belmont R3 | I'm A Soulman | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Jarrod Wessel | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Tripod Terror | 1.55 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Jarrod Wessel | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Shinohara | 9.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Jarrod Wessel | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Uncle Barry | 1.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Jarrod Wessel | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Samanth | 3.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Jarrod Wessel | Sportsbet Port Lin... | In Your Words | 3.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Jarrod Wessel | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Miss Boom | 1.22 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Jarrod Wessel | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Star Casino | 3.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 13:26* | Racing Com | Jarrod Wessel | Sportsbet Port Lin... | Strawberry Swing | 3.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 12:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | Sura Mdn R2 | Sponge Cake | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 12:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | Nti Mdn R1 | Mamma Says So | 2.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Belmont R3 | Buster's Babe | 8.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Sportsbet Sandown ... | Wentworth Falls | 9.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Sportsbet Sandown ... | Bel Mezyaan | 3.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Sportsbet Sandown ... | Wentworth Falls | 9.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Sportsbet Sandown ... | Bluestone | 3.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Sportsbet Sandown ... | Hedonist | 2.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Sportsbet Sandown ... | Test Of Love | 3.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Sportsbet Sandown ... | Leopard Shark | 2.15 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Sportsbet Sandown ... | Savisanta | 4.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 25.Feb 11:26* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Sportsbet Sandown ... | Terilee | 3.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 5W-15L | 2 pending | P/L: -$0.58
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb 06:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Wyong (AUS) 26th Feb | Missile Magnate | 8.40 | $1.00 | PENDING | - |
| 26 Feb 01:35 | Hub | Betfair Cricket... | West Indies v South Afric... | West Indies | 2.94 | $1.00 | PENDING | - |
| 25 Feb 21:35 | Hub | Betfair Data Sc... | Wincanton | Shalfa | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 20:35 | Hub | Betfair Data Sc... | Bangor-on-Dee | Halftheworldaway | 2.86 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.86 |
| 25 Feb 19:05 | BF | Darren McAullay | SHARE BETS WITH TABTOUCH ... | Champagne Crusader | 4.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.90 |
| 25 Feb 18:35 | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 7. Unacceptable Nik | 2.26 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.26 |
| 25 Feb 17:05 | Hub | Darren and Bret... | Mildura | 3. Magic Matty | 3.75 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 16:05 | Hub | Steve Christie | Launceston | 6. Distrustful Award | 9.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 15:35 | Hub | Steve Christie | Launceston | 7. Miss Keeds | 8.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 15:35 | Hub | Jackson Oldham | Sandown | 3. Bluestone | 2.98 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 15:05 | BF | Scott Embry | SHARE BETS WITH TABTOUCH ... | Mighty Hosanna | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 15:05 | BF | Scott Embry | RELIABLE ASSET MAINTENANC... | Cheyne Bay | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 14:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Sandown (AUS) 25th Feb | Wentworth Falls | 9.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 13:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Dynamic Finance Brokers T... | Agnete | 4.70 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.70 |
| 25 Feb 13:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Rosehill (AUS) 25th Feb | Samarelle | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 12:35 | BF | Jared Timms | Rosehill (AUS) 25th Feb | Sphere | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | RELIABLE ASSET MAINTENANC... | Cheyne Bay | 3.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | SHARE BETS WITH TABTOUCH ... | Champagne Crusader | 4.70 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.70 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | Sunset Soiree Book Now BM... | Tophet | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | Girls Day Out 7 March Fil... | Edge Of Infinity | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | Hub | Stats Insider | Charlotte Hornets @ Chica... | Chicago Bulls | 3.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 25 Feb 11:35 | Hub | Stats Insider | Washington Wizards @ Atla... | Washington Wizards | 6.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 9W-30L | P/L: +$11.34
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb 07:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Belmont (AUS) 25th Feb | Poppy's Roses | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 23:05 | Hub | Betfair Data Sc... | Leicester | Delgany Deadline | 3.85 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.85 |
| 24 Feb 23:05 | Hub | Betfair Data Sc... | Newcastle | Without Compromise | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 17:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ROCKHAMPTON R6 1400m Hcap | 10. Our Heart Throb | 10.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$9.00 |
| 24 Feb 17:35 | Hub | Scott Hill | Gloucester Park | 3. Basinghall | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 17:05 | Hub | Scott Hill | Gloucester Park | 3. Cassini Belle | 4.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 16:35 | Hub | Ryan Spice | Albion Park | 1. Copperfield | 3.35 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 16:35 | Hub | Scott Hill | Gloucester Park | 2. Lunar Miss | 3.85 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 16:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ROCKHAMPTON R5 1050m Hcap | 3. Canny Be Better | 8.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 16:05 | Hub | Mitch Lewis | Scone | 2. Blend Of Three | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 15:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | Queensland Hotels Associa... | Our Eagle Rock | 6.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 15:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SCONE R4 1600m Hcap | 3. Roses Imminente | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 15:05 | BF | Stats Insider | Menangle | 3. Vespa Stride | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 14:35 | Hub | Betfair Data Sc... | Kembla Grange | 1. Just Awesome | 3.25 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.25 |
| 24 Feb 14:05 | BF | Sam Lyons | Natimuk Fire Recovery Mai... | King Camelot | 2.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 14:05 | BF | Sam Lyons | Manhari BM56 Handicap | Ville De Lumiere | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 14:05 | BF | Jared Timms | Horsham (AUS) 24th Feb | Bertrand | 4.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 14:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | HORSHAM R3 1200m Mdn | 2. Monix | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ROCKHAMPTON R3 1400m Mdn | 7. Notforthemoney | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 12:05 | BF | Jared Timms | Horsham (AUS) 24th Feb | Body Of Venus | 8.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$7.80 |
| 24 Feb 12:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ru... | Rockhampton (AUS) 24th Fe... | Our Eagle Rock | 6.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 11:35 | BF | Harry White | SUPERNOVA FINANCIAL CONDI... | Duke Of Camden | 8.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 11:35 | BF | Harry White | HAPPY 18TH LACHLAN SHEPPA... | Crusader Voyage | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Feb 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | IGT Australia Handicap | Tizso Fab | 7.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$6.00 |
| 24 Feb 09:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ru... | Rockhampton (AUS) 24th Fe... | Marellity | 8.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 23 Feb 20:05 | Hub | Michael Tye | Sandown Park | 1. Gorringe | 2.34 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.34 |
| 23 Feb 18:35 | Hub | Ace Previews | Echargui v Mpetshi Perric... | Moez Echargui | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 23 Feb 17:05 | Hub | Michael Tye | Sandown Park | 3. Infra Rock | 4.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 23 Feb 15:05 | BF | Harry White | YACKANDANDAH PARK BENCHMA... | Jesters Award | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 23 Feb 15:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Tamworth (AUS) 23rd Feb | Voracious | 5.30 | $1.00 | WON | +$4.30 |
| 23 Feb 15:05 | Hub | Scott Hill | Pinjarra | 4. Cinch | 3.55 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 23 Feb 14:35 | Hub | Scott Hill | Pinjarra | 1. Damage Done | 3.75 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 23 Feb 11:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | TAMWORTH R1 1000m 2yo | 2. Blocker | 8.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 23 Feb 10:05 | Hub | Stats Insider | Charlotte Hornets @ Washi... | Washington Wizards | 5.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 23 Feb 10:05 | Hub | Stats Insider | Philadelphia 76ers @ Minn... | Philadelphia 76ers | 4.10 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.10 |
| 23 Feb 10:05 | Hub | Stats Insider | New York Knicks @ Chicago... | Chicago Bulls | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 23 Feb 09:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Warwick (AUS) 23rd Feb | Mr Playtime | 2.88 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 23 Feb 08:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Warwick (AUS) 23rd Feb | More For Ready | 2.56 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 23 Feb 08:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Tamworth (AUS) 23rd Feb | Voracious | 5.70 | $1.00 | WON | +$4.70 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.Feb 01:20 | Payload | Betfair Data Scientists | - | Shalfa | - | SKIP 32% | LOST |
| 26.Feb 01:00 | Payload | Betfair Data Scientists | - | Halftheworldaway | - | SKIP 32% | WON |
| 26.Feb 00:24* | Hub | Ace Previews | Rinderknech v Ja D... | Ja Draper 2-0 | 1.87 | SKIP 47% | LOST |
| 25.Feb 22:24* | Hub | Ace Previews | Cam Ugo Carabelli ... | Yannick Hanfmann | 1.67 | SKIP 51% | WON |
| 25.Feb 21:54* | Hub | Ace Previews | Mensik v Popyrin | Alexei Popyrin | 3.55 | SKIP 33% | LOST |
| 25.Feb 21:24* | Hub | Betfair Data Scientists | Wincanton | Shalfa | 5.50 | BET 42% | LOST |
| 25.Feb 20:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | BELMONT R7 | Champagne Crusader | 4.70 | SKIP 25% | WON |
| 25.Feb 20:30 | Racing Com | Scott Embry | Belmont R7 | Mighty Hosanna | 6.50 | BET 25% | LOST |
| 25.Feb 20:30 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Belmont R7 | Champagne Crusader | 4.50 | BET 27% | WON |
| 25.Feb 20:30 | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Belmont R7 | Champagne Crusader | 4.40 | BET 33% | WON |
| 25.Feb 20:24* | Hub | Betfair Data Scientists | Bangor-on-Dee | Halftheworldaway | 2.82 | BET 60% | WON |
| 25.Feb 20:24* | Hub | Betfair Data Scientists | Lingfield | Starfighter | 12.00 | BET 19% | LOST |
| 25.Feb 19:54* | Hub | Ace Previews | T Griekspoor v Bub... | Tallon Griekspoor | 3.40 | SKIP 33% | WON |
| 25.Feb 19:54* | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 8. Aston Guitar | 1.62 | SKIP 62% | WON |
| 25.Feb 19:50 | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Belmont R6 | Double The Fun | 2.20 | - | LOST |
| 25.Feb 19:50 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | BELMONT R6 | Double The Fun | 2.36 | - | LOST |
| 25.Feb 19:50 | Racing Com | Scott Embry | Belmont R6 | Double The Fun | 2.30 | - | LOST |
| 25.Feb 19:50 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Belmont R6 | Double The Fun | 2.40 | - | LOST |
| 25.Feb 19:24* | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 8. Brindle Surprise | 2.50 | BET 61% | LOST |
| 25.Feb 19:24* | Hub | Darren and Brett Carroll | Mildura | 4. Nevs Dream | 1.96 | SKIP 55% | WON |
| 25.Feb 18:24* | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 3. Fast Reply | 8.60 | BET 36% | WON |
| 25.Feb 18:24* | Hub | Michael Tye | The Meadows | 7. Unacceptable Nik | 2.24 | BET 62% | WON |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 431 | 140W-281L | -$92.31 | -21.4% |
| Betfair Tips | 654 | 169W-468L | -$122.79 | -18.8% |
Model: logistic_v4 | Training Data: 7,289 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.01 | Calibration: 5 points | Last Retrain: 25 Feb 13:22 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -1.024
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.509 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.425 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.416 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.335 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.298 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.278 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.204 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.112 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.102 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.074 |
|
| Source Edge | -0.035 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.026 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.001 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 431 | 9% | 16% | +7% |
| 15-25% | 815 | 21% | 21% | +1% |
| 25-30% | 332 | 27% | 30% | +2% |
| 30-35% | 2568 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2187 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 423 | 44% | 30% | -14% |
| 50%+ | 554 | 60% | 46% | -14% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 20 | BET: 10 | SKIP: 10 | Settled: 18 | Avg EV: +0.39 | Accuracy: 44.4% | Brier: 0.269 vs Mkt 0.274 (+0.005)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb 17:40 | Dean Watling | Missile Magnate | 9.50 | +0.60 | +6.3% | SB | Other | 16.8% | BET | pending | |
| 26 Feb 13:35 | Dean Watling | So D'oro | 2.15 | +0.10 | +4.8% | SB | Other | 51.3% | SKIP | pending | |
| 26 Feb 03:10 | Ace Previews | Ja Draper 2-0 | 1.88 | -0.11 | -5.7% | Hub | Other | 47.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Feb 03:00 | Ace Previews | Yannick Hanfmann | 1.66 | -0.16 | -9.5% | Hub | Other | 50.7% | SKIP | WON +$0.67 | |
| 26 Feb 02:00 | Ace Previews | Alexei Popyrin | 3.50 | +0.17 | +4.9% | Hub | Other | 33.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Feb 01:20 | Betfair Data Scientists | Shalfa | 5.30 | +1.25 | +23.6% | Hub | Other | 42.5% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Feb 01:20 | Betfair Data Scientists | NO BF Shalfa | - | -0.36 | -18.1% | BF | Other | 31.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 26 Feb 01:00 | Betfair Data Scientists | NO BF Halftheworldaway | - | -0.36 | -18.1% | BF | Other | 31.9% | SKIP | WON +$1.00 | |
| 26 Feb 01:00 | Betfair Data Scientists | Halftheworldaway | 2.86 | +0.73 | +25.4% | Hub | Other | 60.4% | BET | WON +$1.86 | |
| 26 Feb 00:12 | Betfair Data Scientists | Starfighter | 12.00 | +1.29 | +10.8% | Hub | Other | 19.1% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 25 Feb 23:20 | Ace Previews | Tallon Griekspoor | 3.40 | +0.13 | +3.8% | Hub | Other | 33.2% | SKIP | WON +$2.40 | |
| 25 Feb 22:17 | Michael Tye | 8. Aston Guitar | 1.62 | -0.00 | -0.1% | Hub | Other | 61.6% | SKIP | WON +$0.62 | |
| 25 Feb 21:35 | Michael Tye | 8. Brindle Surprise | 2.58 | +0.58 | +22.4% | Hub | Other | 61.1% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 25 Feb 21:10 | Darren and Brett Carroll | 4. Nevs Dream | 1.86 | +0.03 | +1.5% | Hub | Other | 55.3% | SKIP | WON +$0.96 | |
| 25 Feb 20:30 | Rylie Morgan | Champagne Crusader | 4.50 | +0.21 | +4.8% | RC | Horse | 27.0% | BET | WON +$3.90 | |
| 25 Feb 20:30 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Champagne Crusader | 4.70 | +0.15 | +3.3% | Sky | Horse | 24.5% | SKIP | WON +$3.70 | |
| 25 Feb 20:30 | Scott Embry | Mighty Hosanna | 6.50 | +0.64 | +9.8% | RC | Horse | 25.2% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 25 Feb 20:30 | Darren McAullay | Champagne Crusader | 4.40 | +0.47 | +10.7% | RC | Horse | 33.5% | BET | WON +$4.00 | |
| 25 Feb 20:15 | Michael Tye | 3. Fast Reply | 8.60 | +2.11 | +24.6% | Hub | Other | 36.2% | BET | WON +$0.13 | |
| 25 Feb 19:57 | Michael Tye | 7. Unacceptable Nik | 2.26 | +0.39 | +17.4% | Hub | Other | 61.6% | BET | WON +$1.26 |
Solid = v4 (Isotonic, threshold 0.20), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3 (Platt), Green = v4 (Isotonic).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (v4) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |