| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 12 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.Mar 19:56* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Geraldton R5 | Enticing | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 14:14* | Sportsbet | Mark Wise | Toowoomba Building... | Wowit's Willywonka | 7.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 12:38* | SEN | Matt Reid | Launceston R9 | Wednesday's Boss | 7.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 12:26* | Racing Com | Lachlan Stace | Mount Gambier R1 | He's On Song | 1.95 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Cannyworth | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Cranbour... | Duchess Zou | 2.05 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Cranbour... | A Diva | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | O Cara Mia | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Trial By Press | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Cranbour... | Blue Hawaiian | 2.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Blue Hawaiian | 2.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Cranbour... | Time Allowed | 3.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Ottolenghi | 1.75 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Duchess Zou | 2.05 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Grace Hayes | Southside Cranbour... | Time Allowed | 3.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Cranbour... | Shirshov | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Cranbour... | Shinjina | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Cranbour... | Overactive | 2.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Olszanski | Southside Cranbour... | Angling Angel | 10.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R6 | Vixen's Moon | 3.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Camilleri | Kembla Grange R3 | C'mon Flyer | 4.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Daniel Nuttall | Mount Gambier R1 | He's On Song | 1.95 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Chloe First | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | David Strehlau | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Star Territory | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | David Strehlau | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Milos Filos | 2.40 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Egyptian Thorn | 2.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Butterscotch | 1.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Hustle | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Exabanoise | 11.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 13.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | David Strehlau | bet365 Park Kyneto... | Brave Carol | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 6W-25L | P/L: -$10.92
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar 18:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ladbrokes Mega Multi BM60... | Novalargo | 3.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 18:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | House of Arras Open Handi... | In The Ocean | 2.04 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 17:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Geraldton (AUS) 13th Mar | Safe Hustle | 8.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 14:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Mount Gambier (AUS) 13th ... | Runway Ruler | 4.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 13:35 | BF | Darren McAullay | DIAB ENGINEERING PTY LTD ... | Snippety Legend | 2.54 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.54 |
| 13 Mar 13:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Geraldton (AUS) 13th Mar | Rubick Delight | 3.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.90 |
| 13 Mar 13:05 | BF | Darren McAullay | OCEAN AIR CUSTOM AIRCONDI... | Flaming Dragon | 4.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.40 |
| 13 Mar 13:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Geraldton (AUS) 13th Mar | Snippety Legend | 2.54 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.54 |
| 13 Mar 13:05 | BF | Darren McAullay | HTD SURVEYORS & PLANNERS ... | Cateran | 3.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Geraldton (AUS) 13th Mar | Cateran | 3.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Geraldton (AUS) 13th Mar | Flaming Dragon | 4.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.40 |
| 13 Mar 12:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Bundoran | 2.42 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:36 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ladbrokes Big Bets Maiden | Unfiltered | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | ASSETT PROFESSIONAL SERVI... | Monte Kate | 4.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:36 | BF | Daniel Nuttall | Carlton Draught Maiden Pl... | Jamaica Star | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rebecca Hill | HAYMES PAINT Class 2 Hand... | Bit Of Grunt | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | DIAB ENGINEERING PTY LTD ... | Snippety Legend | 2.30 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.30 |
| 13 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | YALUMBA FAMILY WINEMAKERS... | Johnny | 2.26 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | HTD SURVEYORS & PLANNERS ... | Cateran | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | BARRY VANDENBERGH KEMBLA ... | Dolce Dior | 4.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | MITCHELL & BROWN RETRAVIS... | Moorumbine | 9.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | PFD FOOD SERVICES KEMBLA ... | Spicy Lu | 3.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Bundoran | 2.42 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | OCEAN VIEWS RESORT Class ... | Hey Daisy | 2.74 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Bonfidelity | 3.15 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Lord Of The Sun | 4.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Iron Man | 4.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Speedy Pete | 5.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 07:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Lord Of The Sun | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 07:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Bonfidelity | 4.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 13 Mar 07:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Armidale (AUS) 13th Mar | Iron Man | 4.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 10W-30L | P/L: -$8.80
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 16:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Cairns (AUS) 12th Mar | Tsunami | 7.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 13:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | NEWCASTLE R3 1300m Mdn | 9. Arctic Bright | 3.55 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 12:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Pinjarra (AUS) 12th Mar | Wynn Las Vegas | 1.93 | $1.00 | WON | +$0.93 |
| 12 Mar 12:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Pinjarra (AUS) 12th Mar | Mighty Hosanna | 3.70 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.70 |
| 12 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | DAILEY FAMILY FUNERALS MA... | Plume | 3.15 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | NEW ZEALAND BLOODSTOCK BE... | Fierce | 2.56 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | NEW ERA TECHNOLOGY F&M BE... | Girijaala | 2.66 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.66 |
| 12 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | HAPPY 77TH BIRTHDAY GARY ... | Duck For Cover | 4.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 10:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Cairns (AUS) 12th Mar | Middle Child | 2.74 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 10:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Tamworth (AUS) 12th Mar | Ashleys Blue Chip | 2.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Tamworth (AUS) 12th Mar | Mister Cheese | 2.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Cairns (AUS) 12th Mar | Rhegion | 2.28 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Tamworth (AUS) 12th Mar | Maxy Bomber | 2.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Tamworth (AUS) 12th Mar | Thomas Royal | 3.35 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.35 |
| 12 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Cairns (AUS) 12th Mar | Coppabella Road | 4.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Cairns (AUS) 12th Mar | Lord Power | 3.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 12 Mar 07:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Pinjarra (AUS) 12th Mar | Wynn Las Vegas | 2.10 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.10 |
| 11 Mar 19:35 | BF | Darren McAullay | MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HAN... | Royal Splendour | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 19:35 | BF | Scott Embry | GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP | Just Leroy | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 19:35 | BF | Scott Embry | MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HAN... | Queen Of Jerusalem | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 16:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | WARWICK FARM R6 1100m Hca... | 6. Vanessi | 6.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 12:05 | BF | Miles Pfitzner | Balaklava (AUS) 11th Mar | Duo Perna | 3.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.00 |
| 11 Mar 12:05 | BF | Chris Camilleri | MYPLATES HANDICAP | The Wildling | 9.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | SWAN DRAUGHT HANDICAP | Endless Joy | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Nelson | STRADBROKE SEASON ON SALE... | Influential | 3.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Adelaide Galvanising Indu... | Duo Perna | 2.76 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.76 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | HYLAND RACE COLOURS PLATE | Maidoff | 2.96 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HAN... | Queen Of Jerusalem | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Terminus Hotel Balaklava ... | Causeweluvadelaide | 5.70 | $1.00 | WON | +$4.70 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | 118 Years Racing at Balak... | Settle Petal | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | BECOME A BRC MEMBER Class... | Silent Call | 2.74 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Ascot (AUS) 11th Mar | Ripper Rupert | 3.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HA... | Polyglot | 3.65 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | TQCSI Rating 0 - 56 Handi... | Arc De Puissance | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | THE GIBSON Class 4 Handic... | Royal Commodore | 3.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.20 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | SKY RACING Maiden Handica... | Castlereagh Affair | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP | Just Leroy | 4.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | BTR Excavations Rating 0 ... | Eclair Vitality | 2.64 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | IRRESISTIBLE POOLS AND SP... | Look Here | 4.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 08:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Sandown (AUS) 11th Mar | Zakouma | 2.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.80 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.Mar 22:00 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Sunshine Coast R6 | 3. Katdeel | 8.20 | SKIP 8% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 22:00 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sunshine Coast R7 | Pulveriser | 2.80 | SKIP 7% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 21:45 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Cranbourne R8 | 1. Brandjam | 4.91 | SKIP 6% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 21:38 | Sky | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Launceston R9 | Sevillana | 5.90 | SKIP 6% | WON |
| 13.Mar 21:38 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R9 | Novalargo | 3.40 | SKIP 34% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 21:30 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sunshine Coast R6 | Till Dusk | 1.55 | SKIP 62% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 21:08 | Sky | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Launceston R8 | Vino Novello | 3.75 | SKIP 9% | WON |
| 13.Mar 21:08 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R8 | Distrustful Award | 3.80 | SKIP 26% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 21:00 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sunshine Coast R5 | Bit Of Grunt | 5.00 | BET 25% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 20:38 | Sky | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Launceston R7 | In The Ocean | 2.58 | SKIP 9% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 20:38 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R7 | In The Ocean | 2.70 | SKIP 41% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 20:38 | SEN | Matt Reid | Launceston R7 | In The Ocean | 2.70 | SKIP 10% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 20:30 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sunshine Coast R4 | Hey Daisy | 2.70 | BET 45% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 20:26 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Geraldton R7 | 10. Lets Sea | 7.68 | SKIP 10% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 20:26 | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Geraldton R7 | Scurgeofthewest | 1.90 | SKIP 62% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 20:08 | Sky | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Launceston R6 | The Pirate Queen | 9.80 | SKIP 8% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 20:00 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sunshine Coast R3 | Head Of The River | 3.30 | SKIP 16% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 19:56 | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Geraldton R6 | Cateran | 3.50 | BET 62% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 19:56 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Geraldton R6 | Cateran | 3.40 | BET 62% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 19:56 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Geraldton R6 | Cateran | 3.60 | BET 33% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 19:38 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Launceston R5 | 4. Sister Royal | 5.44 | SKIP 7% | LOST |
| 13.Mar 19:38 | Racing Com | Nick Noonan | Launceston R5 | Just Cruisin' | 1.14 | SKIP 59% | WON |
| 13.Mar 19:38 | Sky | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Launceston R5 | Just Cruisin' | 1.19 | SKIP 58% | WON |
| 13.Mar 19:30 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Sunshine Coast R2 | Youre Not The King | 2.15 | SKIP 10% | WON |
| 13.Mar 19:26 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Geraldton R5 | Safe Hustle | 7.20 | SKIP 12% | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 889 | 210W-660L | -$160.49 | -18.1% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 8,961 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.01 | Calibration: 5 points | Last Retrain: 09 Mar 18:15 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -1.009
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.566 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.457 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.447 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.397 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.370 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.157 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.147 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.113 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.093 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.089 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.087 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.080 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.025 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.016 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.005 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1037 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 999 | 20% | 23% | +3% |
| 25-30% | 435 | 27% | 29% | +1% |
| 30-35% | 2674 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2262 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 602 | 44% | 32% | -13% |
| 50%+ | 858 | 60% | 43% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 61 | BET: 15 | SKIP: 46 | Settled: 61 | Avg EV: -0.11 | Accuracy: 49.2% | Brier: 0.249 vs Mkt 0.236 (-0.013)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar 22:00 | Betfair Rated Model | 3. Katdeel | 8.20 | -0.38 | -4.7% | BF | Horse | 7.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 22:00 | Rebecca Hill | Pulveriser | 2.80 | -0.79 | -28.3% | RC | Horse | 7.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 21:45 | Betfair Rated Model | 1. Brandjam | 4.91 | -0.69 | -14.0% | BF | Horse | 6.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 21:38 | Nick Noonan | Novalargo | 3.40 | +0.15 | +4.4% | RC | Horse | 33.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 21:38 | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Sevillana | 5.90 | -0.63 | -10.6% | Sky | Horse | 6.3% | SKIP | WON +$4.90 | |
| 13 Mar 21:30 | Rebecca Hill | Till Dusk | 1.55 | -0.03 | -2.1% | RC | Horse | 62.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 21:08 | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Vino Novello | 3.75 | -0.66 | -17.6% | Sky | Horse | 9.1% | SKIP | WON +$2.75 | |
| 13 Mar 21:08 | Nick Noonan | Distrustful Award | 3.80 | -0.02 | -0.4% | RC | Horse | 25.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 21:00 | Rebecca Hill | Bit Of Grunt | 5.00 | +0.26 | +5.2% | RC | Horse | 25.2% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 20:38 | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | In The Ocean | 2.58 | -0.77 | -30.0% | Sky | Horse | 8.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 20:38 | Matt Reid | In The Ocean | 2.70 | -0.73 | -27.1% | SEN | Horse | 9.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 20:38 | Nick Noonan | In The Ocean | 2.70 | +0.11 | +4.1% | RC | Horse | 41.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 20:30 | Rebecca Hill | Hey Daisy | 2.70 | +0.21 | +7.9% | RC | Horse | 45.0% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 20:26 | Betfair Rated Model | 10. Lets Sea | 7.68 | -0.24 | -3.2% | BF | Horse | 9.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 20:26 | Darren McAullay | Scurgeofthewest | 1.90 | +0.19 | +9.8% | RC | Horse | 62.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 20:08 | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | The Pirate Queen | 9.80 | -0.25 | -2.6% | Sky | Horse | 7.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 20:00 | Rebecca Hill | Head Of The River | 3.30 | -0.46 | -14.0% | RC | Horse | 16.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 19:56 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Cateran | 3.60 | +0.20 | +5.6% | Sky | Horse | 33.4% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 19:56 | Darren McAullay | Cateran | 3.50 | +1.19 | +33.9% | RC | Horse | 62.4% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 19:56 | Rylie Morgan | Cateran | 3.40 | +1.12 | +33.0% | RC | Horse | 62.4% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 19:38 | Betfair Rated Model | 4. Sister Royal | 5.44 | -0.61 | -11.2% | BF | Horse | 7.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 19:38 | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Just Cruisin' | 1.19 | -0.31 | -25.7% | Sky | Horse | 58.3% | SKIP | WON +$0.19 | |
| 13 Mar 19:38 | Nick Noonan | Just Cruisin' | 1.14 | -0.33 | -28.9% | RC | Horse | 58.8% | SKIP | WON +$0.14 | |
| 13 Mar 19:30 | Rebecca Hill | Youre Not The King | 2.15 | -0.78 | -36.5% | RC | Horse | 10.1% | SKIP | WON +$1.15 | |
| 13 Mar 19:26 | Darren McAullay | Safe Hustle | 7.50 | -0.29 | -3.8% | RC | Horse | 9.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 19:26 | Rylie Morgan | Moorumbine | 9.50 | +1.59 | +16.7% | RC | Horse | 27.2% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 19:26 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Safe Hustle | 7.20 | -0.13 | -1.8% | Sky | Horse | 12.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 19:17 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Captain Cheddar | 1.02 | -0.86 | -84.6% | Sky | Harness | 13.4% | SKIP | WON +$0.02 | |
| 13 Mar 19:08 | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Zambezi Blonde | 1.64 | -0.44 | -26.9% | Sky | Horse | 34.1% | SKIP | WON +$0.64 | |
| 13 Mar 19:08 | Nick Noonan | Zambezi Blonde | 1.70 | +0.06 | +3.6% | RC | Horse | 62.4% | SKIP | WON +$0.70 | |
| 13 Mar 19:00 | Rebecca Hill | Sling | 2.25 | -0.29 | -12.8% | RC | Horse | 31.6% | SKIP | WON +$1.25 | |
| 13 Mar 18:55 | Darren McAullay | Snippety Legend | 2.50 | +0.53 | +21.1% | RC | Horse | 61.1% | BET | WON +$1.56 | |
| 13 Mar 18:55 | Rylie Morgan | Snippety Legend | 2.30 | +0.41 | +17.7% | RC | Horse | 61.2% | BET | WON +$1.46 | |
| 13 Mar 18:55 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Snippety Legend | 2.54 | +0.19 | +7.6% | Sky | Horse | 46.9% | SKIP | WON +$1.56 | |
| 13 Mar 18:47 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Ranieri | 1.02 | -0.86 | -84.6% | Sky | Harness | 13.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 18:38 | Nick Noonan | Dizz Boogie Time | 8.00 | -0.14 | -1.7% | RC | Horse | 10.8% | SKIP | WON +$7.00 | |
| 13 Mar 18:38 | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Walking Street | 3.85 | -0.42 | -10.9% | Sky | Horse | 15.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 18:22 | Darren McAullay | Hard Solo | 1.80 | +0.12 | +6.9% | RC | Horse | 62.4% | SKIP | WON +$0.80 | |
| 13 Mar 18:22 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Hard Solo | 1.83 | +0.06 | +3.4% | Sky | Horse | 58.0% | SKIP | WON +$0.83 | |
| 13 Mar 18:22 | Rylie Morgan | Hard Solo | 1.75 | +0.09 | +5.3% | RC | Horse | 62.4% | SKIP | WON +$0.75 | |
| 13 Mar 18:19 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | The Chancer | 1.01 | -0.69 | -68.3% | Sky | Harness | 30.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 18:08 | Nick Noonan | Veins Within Rock | 2.60 | -0.62 | -23.7% | RC | Horse | 14.7% | SKIP | WON +$1.60 | |
| 13 Mar 18:08 | Matt Reid | Veins Within Rock | 2.70 | -0.17 | -6.5% | SEN | Horse | 30.6% | SKIP | WON +$1.70 | |
| 13 Mar 18:08 | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Veins Within Rock | 2.86 | -0.38 | -13.4% | Sky | Horse | 21.6% | SKIP | WON +$1.86 | |
| 13 Mar 18:00 | Shayne Montgomery | Johnny | 2.20 | -0.69 | -31.3% | SB | Horse | 14.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 18:00 | Chris Camilleri | Johnny | 2.20 | +0.37 | +17.0% | RC | Horse | 62.4% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 17:50 | Scott McDonell | Runway Ruler | 3.90 | +0.19 | +5.0% | SB | Horse | 30.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 17:50 | Daniel Nuttall | Shooter Mcgavin | 2.90 | -0.37 | -12.7% | RC | Horse | 21.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 17:50 | Lachlan Stace | Sethacchio | 3.20 | -0.69 | -21.6% | RC | Horse | 9.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 17:49 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Andaman Bay | 1.02 | -0.86 | -84.6% | Sky | Harness | 13.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 17:45 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Flaming Dragon | 4.40 | +0.24 | +5.5% | Sky | Horse | 28.2% | BET | WON +$4.30 | |
| 13 Mar 17:45 | Darren McAullay | Flaming Dragon | 4.20 | +0.32 | +7.6% | RC | Horse | 31.4% | BET | WON +$4.30 | |
| 13 Mar 17:45 | Rylie Morgan | Flaming Dragon | 5.00 | -0.26 | -5.1% | RC | Horse | 14.9% | SKIP | WON +$4.00 | |
| 13 Mar 17:38 | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Lord Of The Sun | 5.20 | +1.55 | +29.8% | Sky | Horse | 49.0% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 17:38 | Sky Racing - Belinda Smith | Lord Of The Sun | 4.60 | +1.34 | +29.2% | Sky | Horse | 50.9% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 17:34 | Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf | Unfiltered | 3.50 | -0.63 | -18.1% | Sky | Horse | 10.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 17:34 | Nick Noonan | Unfiltered | 3.60 | +0.27 | +7.5% | RC | Horse | 35.2% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 17:20 | Chris Camilleri | Spicy Lu | 3.40 | +0.32 | +9.4% | RC | Horse | 38.8% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 17:17 | Sky Racing - Matt Robertson | Jilliby Jay Sea | 1.02 | -0.69 | -67.8% | Sky | Harness | 30.3% | SKIP | WON +$0.02 | |
| 13 Mar 17:10 | Lachlan Stace | Supreme Thunder | 4.60 | -0.55 | -12.0% | RC | Horse | 9.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 13 Mar 17:10 | Daniel Nuttall | Iliad | 6.00 | -0.10 | -1.6% | RC | Horse | 15.1% | SKIP | WON +$5.00 |
Solid = v4 (Isotonic, threshold 0.20), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3 (Platt), Green = v4/v5 (Isotonic).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.20). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4/v5 decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (v4) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |