| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 12 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Mark Wise | RNone None | Hard Solo | 1.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 12.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Mark Wise | RNone None | Snippety Legend | 3.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 11.Mar 19:26* | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Ascot R5 | Mistress Of War | 3.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 11.Mar 19:26* | Racing Com | Scott Embry | Ascot R5 | Mistress Of War | 3.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 11.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Sportsbet Sandown ... | Gold Coast Belle | 2.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 11.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Sportsbet Sandown ... | Zakouma | 2.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 11.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Sportsbet Sandown ... | On A Journey | 9.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 11.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Sportsbet Sandown ... | Ten Warriors | 3.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 11.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Sportsbet Sandown ... | Champagne Jenni | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 11.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Sportsbet Sandown ... | Roulette King | 2.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 11.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Sportsbet Sandown ... | Suffolk Star | 3.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 11.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Sportsbet Sandown ... | Test Of Love | 3.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 11.Mar 11:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | RNone None | Too Much Talk | 6.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 11.Mar 11:14* | Sportsbet | Greg Hooper | RNone None | Wynn Las Vegas | 1.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 11.Mar 10:38* | SEN | Miles Pfitzner | Sandown R6 | Figlio D'argento | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 14:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Ardashir | 7.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Picklebet Park War... | Prince Of Synergy | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Picklebet Park War... | Artifactx | 8.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Picklebet Park War... | Skieda | 2.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Picklebet Park War... | Raiderlicious | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Picklebet Park War... | Cardiologist | 4.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Picklebet Park War... | Chevallum | 2.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Picklebet Park War... | Powerful Eagle | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Harry Met Sally | 3.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Rorkes Drift | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Harry Met Sally | 3.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Royal Optimism | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Joltin' Joe | 11.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Princess Painton | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 10.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | Sportsbet-Ballarat... | Warparty | 2.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 5W-18L | P/L: -$5.54
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar 19:35 | BF | Darren McAullay | MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HAN... | Royal Splendour | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 19:35 | BF | Scott Embry | GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP | Just Leroy | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 19:35 | BF | Scott Embry | MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HAN... | Queen Of Jerusalem | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 16:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | WARWICK FARM R6 1100m Hca... | 6. Vanessi | 6.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 12:05 | BF | Miles Pfitzner | Balaklava (AUS) 11th Mar | Duo Perna | 3.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.00 |
| 11 Mar 12:05 | BF | Chris Camilleri | MYPLATES HANDICAP | The Wildling | 9.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | SWAN DRAUGHT HANDICAP | Endless Joy | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Nelson | STRADBROKE SEASON ON SALE... | Influential | 3.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Adelaide Galvanising Indu... | Duo Perna | 2.76 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.76 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Camilleri | HYLAND RACE COLOURS PLATE | Maidoff | 2.96 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HAN... | Queen Of Jerusalem | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | Terminus Hotel Balaklava ... | Causeweluvadelaide | 5.70 | $1.00 | WON | +$4.70 |
| 11 Mar 11:36 | BF | John Kelton | 118 Years Racing at Balak... | Settle Petal | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | BECOME A BRC MEMBER Class... | Silent Call | 2.74 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Da... | Ascot (AUS) 11th Mar | Ripper Rupert | 3.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HA... | Polyglot | 3.65 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | TQCSI Rating 0 - 56 Handi... | Arc De Puissance | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | THE GIBSON Class 4 Handic... | Royal Commodore | 3.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.20 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | SKY RACING Maiden Handica... | Castlereagh Affair | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP | Just Leroy | 4.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | BTR Excavations Rating 0 ... | Eclair Vitality | 2.64 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | IRRESISTIBLE POOLS AND SP... | Look Here | 4.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 11 Mar 08:35 | BF | Dean Watling | Sandown (AUS) 11th Mar | Zakouma | 2.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.80 |
Record: 8W-14L | P/L: +$10.86
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar 15:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | WARWICK R3 1350m Mdn | 10. Soloact | 4.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 15:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Warwick (AUS) 10th Mar | Rock The Sunrise | 2.32 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | BALLARAT R1 1200m Mdn | 3. Harry Met Sally | 4.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.90 |
| 10 Mar 12:05 | BF | Harry White | TAB VENUE MODE CLASS 1 & ... | Contaldo | 5.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | CAFÉ NOSH MAIDEN HANDICAP | Prize Witness | 2.78 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | 12 MAY GLOUCESTER CUP BEN... | Myalaby | 6.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Taree (AUS) 10th Mar | Zelestial | 2.32 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 09:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Taree (AUS) 10th Mar | Zelestial | 2.32 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 10 Mar 08:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Taree (AUS) 10th Mar | Ready And Lucky | 2.26 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 09 Mar 14:35 | BF | Luke Hovhanesia... | Cowra (AUS) 9th Mar | Tartan Tiger | 4.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 09 Mar 14:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Du... | Devonport (AUS) 9th Mar | Bright Night | 3.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 09 Mar 14:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Du... | Devonport (AUS) 9th Mar | Hartman | 2.98 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.98 |
| 09 Mar 14:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Co... | Cowra (AUS) 9th Mar | Tartan Tiger | 2.86 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 09 Mar 13:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Cowra (AUS) 9th Mar | Tartan Tiger | 2.86 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 09 Mar 12:05 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Sungold Milk BM66 Handica... | Morgana | 3.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.90 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Standing Tall In Warrnamb... | Off His Roca | 2.88 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.88 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | Rexco Handicap | Just A Brother | 7.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$6.00 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | The Fotobase Group Morphe... | Dirty Old Town | 3.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | Sportsbet More Places Han... | Miss Slipstream | 3.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.20 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | Adam Crettenden | Sungold Milk BM66 Handica... | Morgana | 3.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.90 |
| 09 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | Sportsbet Feed Handicap | Brown Nose Day Gal | 4.10 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.10 |
| 09 Mar 07:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Ro... | Coffs Harbour (AUS) 9th M... | Kirkall | 2.86 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.Mar 20:35 | Racing Com | Scott Embry | Ascot R7 | Queen Of Jerusalem | 4.60 | BET 55% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 20:35 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R7 | Queen Of Jerusalem | 4.80 | BET 50% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 20:35 | Racing Com | Darren McAullay | Ascot R7 | Royal Splendour | 5.00 | BET 53% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 20:35 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R7 | Royal Splendour | 5.30 | SKIP 12% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 20:00 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R6 | Just Leroy | 4.80 | BET 30% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 20:00 | Racing Com | Scott Embry | Ascot R6 | Just Leroy | 4.60 | BET 33% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 19:25 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R5 | Endless Joy | 6.50 | BET 37% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 19:25 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R5 | Mistress Of War | 4.20 | SKIP 18% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 18:50 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R4 | Niccimota | 4.80 | SKIP 9% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 18:50 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R4 | Ripper Rupert | 3.40 | BET 37% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 18:40 | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Doomben R8 | Immediate | 8.50 | SKIP 6% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 18:30 | SEN | Miles Pfitzner | Sandown R7 | Crocodile | 5.50 | SKIP 10% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 18:20 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R3 | Gingerbread Girl | 5.00 | SKIP 6% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 18:20 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R3 | Ripper Farooq | 5.30 | SKIP 17% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 18:10 | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Doomben R7 | Influential | 4.00 | BET 41% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 17:50 | Racing Com | Chris Camilleri | Warwick Farm R8 | Monte Veebee | 2.50 | SKIP 44% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 17:50 | SEN | David Taggart | Warwick Farm R8 | Zarizatycoon | 31.00 | SKIP 6% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 17:44 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R2 | Win For Buster | 2.00 | SKIP 6% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 17:44 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R2 | My Testimony | 7.00 | SKIP 9% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 17:40 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Balaklava R7 | 5. Pretty Perky | 4.47 | SKIP 9% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 17:40 | Racing Com | John Kelton | Balaklava R7 | Duo Perna | 2.70 | BET 48% | WON |
| 11.Mar 17:40 | SEN | Miles Pfitzner | Balaklava R7 | Duo Perna | 2.60 | SKIP 43% | WON |
| 11.Mar 17:33 | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Doomben R6 | Lonesome Soul | 13.00 | SKIP 6% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 17:25 | SEN | Miles Pfitzner | Sandown R5 | Miss Revealing | 3.20 | SKIP 30% | LOST |
| 11.Mar 17:25 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Sandown R5 | 3. Paltrow Miss | 5.24 | SKIP 6% | WON |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 841 | 199W-623L | -$146.31 | -17.4% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 8,773 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.01 | Calibration: 5 points | Last Retrain: 09 Mar 18:15 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -1.009
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.566 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.457 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.447 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.397 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.370 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.157 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.147 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.113 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.093 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.089 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.087 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.080 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.025 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.016 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.005 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 963 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 986 | 20% | 23% | +2% |
| 25-30% | 422 | 27% | 29% | +1% |
| 30-35% | 2659 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2254 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 590 | 44% | 32% | -13% |
| 50%+ | 824 | 60% | 43% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 27 | BET: 10 | SKIP: 17 | Settled: 27 | Avg EV: +0.14 | Accuracy: 63.0% | Brier: 0.137 vs Mkt 0.115 (-0.022)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar 20:35 | Rylie Morgan | Queen Of Jerusalem | 4.80 | +1.39 | +29.0% | RC | Horse | 49.8% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 20:35 | Darren McAullay | Royal Splendour | 5.00 | +1.67 | +33.4% | RC | Horse | 53.4% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 20:35 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Royal Splendour | 5.30 | -0.35 | -6.7% | Sky | Horse | 12.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 20:35 | Scott Embry | Queen Of Jerusalem | 4.60 | +1.54 | +33.4% | RC | Horse | 55.1% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 20:00 | Rylie Morgan | Just Leroy | 4.80 | +0.42 | +8.7% | RC | Horse | 29.5% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 20:00 | Scott Embry | Just Leroy | 4.60 | +0.50 | +10.8% | RC | Horse | 32.5% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 19:25 | Rylie Morgan | Endless Joy | 6.50 | +1.41 | +21.7% | RC | Horse | 37.0% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 19:25 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Mistress Of War | 4.20 | -0.22 | -5.3% | Sky | Horse | 18.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 18:50 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ripper Rupert | 3.40 | +0.27 | +7.9% | Sky | Horse | 37.3% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 18:50 | Rylie Morgan | Niccimota | 4.80 | -0.56 | -11.7% | RC | Horse | 9.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 18:40 | Chris Nelson | Immediate | 8.50 | -0.45 | -5.3% | RC | Horse | 6.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 18:30 | Miles Pfitzner | Crocodile | 5.50 | -0.42 | -7.7% | SEN | Horse | 10.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 18:30 | Brendan Tupper | Crocodile | 5.50 | -0.15 | -2.8% | SB | Horse | 15.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 18:20 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ripper Farooq | 5.30 | -0.11 | -2.0% | Sky | Horse | 16.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 18:20 | Rylie Morgan | Gingerbread Girl | 5.00 | -0.68 | -13.7% | RC | Horse | 6.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 18:10 | Chris Nelson | Influential | 4.00 | +0.64 | +16.0% | RC | Horse | 41.0% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 18:00 | Brendan Tupper | Zakouma | 2.80 | +0.27 | +9.7% | SB | Horse | 45.4% | BET | WON +$1.90 | |
| 11 Mar 17:50 | David Taggart | Zarizatycoon | 31.00 | +0.96 | +3.1% | SEN | Horse | 6.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 17:50 | Chris Camilleri | Monte Veebee | 2.50 | +0.10 | +4.1% | RC | Horse | 44.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 17:44 | Rylie Morgan | Win For Buster | 2.00 | -0.87 | -43.7% | RC | Horse | 6.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 17:44 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | My Testimony | 7.00 | -0.35 | -5.0% | Sky | Horse | 9.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 17:40 | Miles Pfitzner | Duo Perna | 2.60 | +0.11 | +4.1% | SEN | Horse | 42.5% | SKIP | WON +$2.05 | |
| 11 Mar 17:40 | Betfair Rated Model | 5. Pretty Perky | 4.47 | -0.61 | -13.7% | BF | Horse | 8.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 17:40 | John Kelton | Duo Perna | 2.70 | +0.30 | +11.1% | RC | Horse | 48.2% | BET | WON +$1.82 | |
| 11 Mar 17:33 | Chris Nelson | Lonesome Soul | 13.00 | -0.18 | -1.4% | RC | Horse | 6.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 11 Mar 17:25 | Betfair Rated Model | 3. Paltrow Miss | 5.24 | -0.67 | -12.7% | BF | Horse | 6.3% | SKIP | WON +$4.24 | |
| 11 Mar 17:25 | Miles Pfitzner | Miss Revealing | 3.20 | -0.02 | -0.8% | SEN | Horse | 30.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4 (Isotonic, threshold 0.20), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3 (Platt), Green = v4/v5 (Isotonic).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.20). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4/v5 decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (v4) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |