+$43.41
Total P/L
| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-24T05:35 | Betfair Rated Model | 6. Booya Boy | 9.40 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 11 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.Mar 05:14* | Sportsbet | Kevin Casey | Tamworth R7 | Canny Prospect | 8.50 | SKIP 10% | TRACK |
| 02.Mar 04:44* | Sportsbet | Kevin Casey | Tamworth R6 | Instead | 3.60 | SKIP 20% | TRACK |
| 01.Mar 15:56* | Racing Com | Chris Camilleri | Coffs Harbour R4 | La Regina | 9.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Daniel Nuttall | Naracoorte R4 | Youraway | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Daniel Nuttall | Naracoorte R1 | Arizona Wildfire | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Daniel Nuttall | Naracoorte R5 | Badonkidonk | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Daniel Nuttall | Naracoorte R2 | Green Amber | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Daniel Nuttall | Naracoorte R6 | Piwhane | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Daniel Nuttall | Naracoorte R3 | Oak Park Rebel | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Colac R1 | Cracked It | 7.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Colac R4 | Avid General | 6.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Colac R6 | Port Louis | 3.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Colac R3 | Pafitis | 2.35 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Colac R1 | Symbol Of State | 2.45 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Colac R5 | Squander | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Colac R2 | Fire Type | 4.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Colac R6 | Port Louis | 3.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Colac R4 | Squagaga | 8.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Colac R5 | Squander | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Colac R7 | The Daily Planet | 2.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Colac R3 | River Wolf | 16.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Colac R2 | Lowestoft | 1.95 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Colac R7 | King Alla | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:14* | Sportsbet | Kevin Casey | Affinty Roofing Ne... | Canny Prospect | 8.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:14* | Sportsbet | Kevin Casey | Wally Lynch Memori... | Instead | 3.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:07* | Ladbrokes Blog | Jared Timms | Pakenham R7 | Plunger | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:07* | Ladbrokes Blog | Jared Timms | Pakenham R6 | Cafe Au Lait | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:07* | Ladbrokes Blog | Jared Timms | Pakenham R3 | Federalist | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 11:07* | Ladbrokes Blog | Jared Timms | Pakenham R1 | Soul Mistress | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 01.Mar 09:14* | Sportsbet | Mark Wise | Wittens Irrigation... | Pure 'N' Simple | 2.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 4W-11L | P/L: -$2.02
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar 20:25 | BF | Stats Insider | Brighton v Nottm Forest | Brighton | 2.28 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.28 |
| 01 Mar 15:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | FREIGHT LINES GROUP ESPER... | Arcadia Knight | 2.74 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Mar 15:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Du... | Burnie (AUS) 1st Mar | Ranieri | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Mar 14:35 | BF | David Taggart | Sapphire Coast (AUS) 1st ... | Jazz All Knight | 3.80 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.80 |
| 01 Mar 13:36 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SALE R3 1012m Mdn | 9. Mahrajan | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Mar 11:36 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Maffra Sheetmetal 2YO Mai... | Count Chevalier | 4.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Mar 11:36 | BF | Chris Nelson | Save the Date 2026 Ladbro... | Arduous | 2.66 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Mar 11:35 | BF | Adam Olszanski | Maffco Brewery & Distille... | Russian Roni | 6.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Mar 11:35 | BF | Adam Olszanski | Ladbrokes Top2/3/4 Bettin... | Sugar Schnapps | 3.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Mar 11:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Du... | Burnie (AUS) 1st Mar | Done Well | 2.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Mar 11:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Du... | Burnie (AUS) 1st Mar | Stanton Break | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Mar 11:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Du... | Burnie (AUS) 1st Mar | Alberio | 3.85 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.85 |
| 01 Mar 11:06 | BF | Sky Racing - Du... | Burnie (AUS) 1st Mar | Stepupndance | 3.05 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.05 |
| 01 Mar 11:05 | Hub | Stats Insider | New Orleans Pelicans @ Ut... | Utah Jazz | 3.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 01 Mar 11:05 | Hub | Stats Insider | Toronto Raptors @ Washing... | Washington Wizards | 7.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 18W-49L | P/L: +$3.05
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 13:35 | BF | Tony Kneebone | VOBIS Gold Comet | Mcgaw | 3.15 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 13:35 | BF | Ben Asgari | Inglis Sprint | Alpha Sofie | 2.06 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 13:35 | BF | David Gately | Flemington (AUS) 28th Feb | Birdman | 4.10 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.10 |
| 28 Feb 13:05 | BF | Matt Hill | Good Friday Appeal Plate | Watersports | 2.90 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.90 |
| 28 Feb 13:05 | BF | David Strehlau | Inglis Sprint | Alpha Sofie | 2.14 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 13:05 | BF | Matt Hill | VOBIS Gold Comet | Mcgaw | 3.05 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 13:05 | BF | Mick Gannon | Randwick (AUS) 28th Feb | Axius | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 12:36 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Kirin Ichiban Trophy | Sneaky Sunrise | 4.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 12:36 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Rubaroc Handicap | Rue De Royale | 3.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 12:35 | BF | Tony Kneebone | TAB Blamey Stakes | Air Assault | 5.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 12:35 | BF | Ben Asgari | Good Friday Appeal Plate | Watersports | 2.82 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.82 |
| 28 Feb 12:35 | BF | Ben Asgari | VOBIS Gold Comet | Mcgaw | 3.15 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 12:35 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Inglis Sprint | Alpha Sofie | 2.14 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 12:06 | BF | Cam Luke | Randwick (AUS) 28th Feb | Bear On The Loose | 3.15 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 12:06 | BF | Clint Hutchison | 3AW Handicap | Ambassadorial | 3.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.40 |
| 28 Feb 12:06 | BF | David Strehlau | Rubaroc Handicap | Dirty Grin | 9.60 | $1.00 | WON | +$8.60 |
| 28 Feb 12:06 | BF | Ben Asgari | Rubaroc Handicap | Rue De Royale | 3.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 12:06 | BF | Ben Asgari | 3AW Handicap | Xtra Rush | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 12:06 | BF | Tony Kneebone | TAB We're On | Ladhar | 5.90 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 12:06 | BF | Ben Asgari | TAB Blamey Stakes | Birdman | 4.50 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.50 |
| 28 Feb 12:06 | BF | Brent Zerafa | Kirin Ichiban Trophy | Sneaky Sunrise | 4.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | RANDWICK R8 1600m Grp1 | 2. Sir Delius | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | RANDWICK R4 1200m Grp2 | 1. By Choice | 8.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 12:05 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Good Friday Appeal Plate | Watersports | 2.84 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.84 |
| 28 Feb 12:05 | BF | Clint Hutchison | VOBIS Gold Comet | Mcgaw | 3.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 12:05 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Inglis Sprint | Alpha Sofie | 2.06 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 12:05 | BF | Brent Zerafa | TAB Blamey Stakes | Air Assault | 6.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 12:05 | BF | Cam Luke | Flemington (AUS) 28th Feb | Planet Red | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 11:36 | BF | David Strehlau | VOBIS Gold Comet | Salsa Fellow | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | COUNTRY COMFORT PERTH MAI... | Extra Zero | 2.38 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.38 |
| 28 Feb 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | ROBERT HARVEY MEMORIAL HA... | Santanova | 4.50 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.50 |
| 28 Feb 11:36 | BF | Rylie Morgan | COURTNEY KEEFFE ELDERS RE... | Alla Ping | 3.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 11:36 | BF | Brent Zerafa | TAB We're On | Ladhar | 5.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 11:36 | BF | Matt Hill | 3AW Handicap | Ambassadorial | 3.35 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.35 |
| 28 Feb 11:36 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Kirin Ichiban Trophy | Sneaky Sunrise | 4.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | Mick Bawden QTIS JEWEL PR... | Boomtowns | 4.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.20 |
| 28 Feb 11:35 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Rubaroc Handicap | Rue De Royale | 3.45 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 11:35 | BF | Tony Kneebone | Good Friday Appeal Plate | Watersports | 2.82 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.82 |
| 28 Feb 11:35 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Rubaroc Handicap | Legacy Bay | 5.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 11:35 | BF | Matt Hill | TAB We're On | La Gitana | 5.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 11:35 | BF | David Strehlau | TAB We're On | Gin Twist | 4.30 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.30 |
| 28 Feb 11:35 | BF | Brent Zerafa | VOBIS Gold Comet | Mcgaw | 3.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | MORETON HIRE OPEN Handica... | Hell | 4.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | XXXX QTIS JEWEL PRELUDE 3... | Earn To Burn | 2.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 11:35 | BF | David Strehlau | Australian Guineas | Sixties | 3.25 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 11:35 | BF | Rylie Morgan | GERALDTON CUP MARQUEE TIC... | Yapper | 3.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 11:35 | BF | David Strehlau | TAB Blamey Stakes | Air Assault | 5.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 11:35 | BF | Matt Hill | Inglis Sprint | Alpha Sofie | 2.08 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 11:35 | BF | David Strehlau | 3AW Handicap | Xtra Rush | 5.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 11:35 | BF | Matt Hill | TAB Blamey Stakes | Birdman | 4.50 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.50 |
| 28 Feb 10:35 | Hub | Stats Insider | Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Ce... | Brooklyn Nets | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 10:35 | Hub | Stats Insider | Cleveland Cavaliers @ Det... | Cleveland Cavaliers | 3.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 09:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Flemington (AUS) 28th Feb | Alpha Sofie | 2.24 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 09:05 | BF | Travis Noonan | Flemington (AUS) 28th Feb | Hot Digity Boom | 7.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 04:35 | Hub | 2 UNITS | Flemington | 8. Gold Medallist | 8.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 28 Feb 02:05 | Hub | 2 UNITS | Randwick | 10. Bryant | 4.30 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.30 |
| 28 Feb 01:05 | Hub | 2 UNITS | Flemington | 6. Gin Twist | 4.30 | $1.00 | WON | +$3.30 |
| 27 Feb 23:35 | Hub | Betfair Data Sc... | Newbury | Innamorato | 5.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Feb 21:35 | Hub | Michael Tye | Geelong | 1. Prince Laroi | 6.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Feb 20:05 | Hub | Mitch Lewis | Canterbury | 4. Kimberley Secrets | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Feb 19:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | CANTERBURY R5 1250m Hcap | 7. Slinky | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Feb 19:35 | Hub | Michael Tye | Geelong | 5. Snow Road | 3.15 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Feb 17:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 27th Feb | Burlington Arcade | 2.40 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.40 |
| 27 Feb 12:05 | Hub | Mitch Lewis | Canterbury | 5. Kenmare Bay | 3.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Feb 11:35 | Hub | Matt Welsh | Flemington | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 27 Feb 11:05 | Hub | Ben Asgari | Flemington | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 27 Feb 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 27th Feb | Storm Capital | 2.84 | $1.00 | WON | +$1.84 |
| 27 Feb 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 27th Feb | Whirlwind | 2.96 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Feb 10:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Townsville (AUS) 27th Feb | Super Freeze | 3.10 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 27 Feb 09:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ga... | Ballina (AUS) 27th Feb | Spicy Wings | 3.30 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 27 Feb 09:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ga... | Ballina (AUS) 27th Feb | Poised Tycoon | 3.35 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01.Mar 20:35 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Esperance R8 | More Likely | 3.60 | SKIP 11% | WON |
| 01.Mar 20:35 | Racing Com | Royce Newton | Esperance R8 | More Likely | 3.60 | SKIP 12% | WON |
| 01.Mar 20:00 | Racing Com | Royce Newton | Esperance R7 | Outspoken Lad | 5.00 | SKIP 6% | WON |
| 01.Mar 20:00 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Esperance R7 | Arcadia Knight | 2.70 | BET 51% | LOST |
| 01.Mar 17:54* | Hub | Stats Insider | San Antonio Spurs ... | San Antonio Spurs | 1.77 | SKIP 54% | LOST |
| 01.Mar 15:24* | Hub | Betfair Cricket Trader | India v West Indie... | India | 1.26 | SKIP 62% | WON |
| 01.Mar 06:54* | Hub | Tony Hargraves | Arsenal v Chelsea | Yes | 1.85 | SKIP 50% | WON |
| 01.Mar 04:24* | Hub | Tony Hargraves | Fulham v Tottenham | Tottenham | 3.80 | BET 34% | WON |
| 01.Mar 04:24* | Hub | Tony Hargraves | Brighton v Nottm F... | Brighton | 2.14 | SKIP 46% | WON |
| 01.Mar 04:24* | Hub | Tony Hargraves | Man Utd v Crystal ... | Man Utd | 1.56 | SKIP 54% | WON |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 452 | 144W-297L | -$93.51 | -20.7% |
| Betfair Tips | 728 | 187W-523L | -$122.53 | -16.8% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 7,853 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.01 | Calibration: 5 points | Last Retrain: 01 Mar 21:15 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.991
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.574 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.419 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.402 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.399 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.364 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.165 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.137 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.101 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.099 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.093 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.078 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.061 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.054 |
|
| Source Edge | -0.004 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.001 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 577 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 864 | 21% | 22% | +1% |
| 25-30% | 365 | 27% | 30% | +3% |
| 30-35% | 2610 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2217 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 481 | 44% | 30% | -14% |
| 50%+ | 660 | 60% | 45% | -15% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 12 | BET: 2 | SKIP: 10 | Settled: 10 | Avg EV: -0.18 | Accuracy: 20.0% | Brier: 0.435 vs Mkt 0.331 (-0.104)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar 17:00 | Kevin Casey | Canny Prospect | 8.50 | -0.17 | -2.0% | SB | Horse | 9.8% | SKIP | pending | |
| 02 Mar 16:20 | Kevin Casey | Instead | 3.60 | -0.27 | -7.6% | SB | Horse | 20.2% | SKIP | pending | |
| 02 Mar 05:10 | Stats Insider | San Antonio Spurs | 1.89 | +0.02 | +1.2% | Hub | Other | 54.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 02 Mar 03:30 | Tony Hargraves | Yes | 1.85 | -0.08 | -4.5% | Hub | Other | 49.6% | SKIP | WON +$0.85 | |
| 02 Mar 01:00 | Tony Hargraves | Tottenham | 3.80 | +0.27 | +7.2% | Hub | Other | 33.5% | BET | WON +$0.36 | |
| 02 Mar 01:00 | Tony Hargraves | Man Utd | 1.56 | -0.16 | -10.0% | Hub | Other | 54.1% | SKIP | WON +$0.56 | |
| 02 Mar 01:00 | Tony Hargraves | Brighton | 2.14 | -0.01 | -0.5% | Hub | Other | 46.2% | SKIP | WON +$1.28 | |
| 02 Mar 00:30 | Betfair Cricket Trader | India | 1.26 | -0.22 | -17.7% | Hub | Other | 61.6% | SKIP | WON +$0.26 | |
| 01 Mar 20:35 | Royce Newton | More Likely | 3.60 | -0.56 | -15.5% | RC | Horse | 12.3% | SKIP | WON +$2.60 | |
| 01 Mar 20:35 | Rylie Morgan | More Likely | 3.60 | -0.62 | -17.2% | RC | Horse | 10.5% | SKIP | WON +$2.60 | |
| 01 Mar 20:00 | Royce Newton | Outspoken Lad | 5.00 | -0.70 | -14.0% | RC | Horse | 6.0% | SKIP | WON +$4.00 | |
| 01 Mar 20:00 | Rylie Morgan | Arcadia Knight | 2.70 | +0.37 | +13.9% | RC | Horse | 50.9% | BET | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4 (Isotonic, threshold 0.20), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3 (Platt), Green = v4 (Isotonic).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (v4) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |