+$43.41
Total P/L
| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 17 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | The Prince Of Mere... | Mirai San | 3.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 22.Mar 00:14* | Sportsbet | Shayne Montgomery | The Adviser Collec... | Are You Kidding | 1.70 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 12:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | ASCOT R7 | Searchin' Times | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 12:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | ASCOT R3 | Oscar's Fortune | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 12:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | ASCOT R1 | God's Cross | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 13:14* | Sportsbet | Julie Rowland | Bowman Earthmovers... | Durham | 11.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 13:14* | Sportsbet | Julie Rowland | Mayura Station R8 | Phoebe Buffay | 5.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R7 | Searchin' Times | 2.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R3 | Oscar's Fortune | 1.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Standard Street | 3.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Chief White Sock | 2.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Stella Bystarlight | 1.95 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Dolce D'amour | 2.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Hebel | 2.45 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Gaurav Khosla | Ladbrokes Pioneer ... | Square Cut | 2.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Echuca R5 | Acheter | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Echuca R6 | Moral Turpitude | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Echuca R3 | Washington Lilac | 1.85 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Echuca R2 | Silver Capital | 4.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Echuca R1 | The Mailer | 3.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Echuca R7 | Lychee Green Tea | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Echuca R7 | Balgowan | 3.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Echuca R4 | Duke Of Bedford | 3.90 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Ric McIntosh | bet365 Echuca R1 | Meka Vibe | 3.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Echuca R3 | Guthrie | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Echuca R5 | Acheter | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Echuca R4 | Flash Of Dallas | 8.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Echuca R2 | Silver Capital | 4.60 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Brent Zerafa | bet365 Echuca R6 | Tarakash | 6.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 21.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Aquis Park Gold Co... | Oakfield Galaxy | 4.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 0W-13L | P/L: -$13.00
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 16:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | DALBY R6 1200m Hcap | 3. Purezza | 8.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 15:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | QUEANBEYAN R4 1460m Mdn | 6. Closethedoordarcy | 8.00 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 21 Mar 14:05 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Orbit Logistics Don Casbo... | Bassett Babe | 4.30 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 12:35 | BF | Cam Luke | Caulfield (AUS) 21st Mar | Tropicus | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:36 | BF | David Strehlau | Orbit Logistics Don Casbo... | Bassett Babe | 4.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:35 | BF | Harry White | JOHN COLE RETIREMENT CG&E... | Chokuto | 4.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | ETHOS ORTHODONTICS BENCHM... | Weigall Tiger | 7.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | PITCHER PARTNERS BENCHMAR... | Rhapsody Chic | 9.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:35 | BF | Matt Hill | Ladbrokes William Reid St... | Angel Capital | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | VECCHIO PROPERTY GROUP BE... | Smexy | 6.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 11:05 | BF | Chris Nelson | Eagle Farm (AUS) 21st Mar | Vivika | 6.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 09:35 | BF | Heath Pope | Morphettville (AUS) 21st ... | Cinque Torri | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 09:35 | BF | Travis Noonan | Rosehill (AUS) 21st Mar | Warwoven | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 21 Mar 09:05 | BF | Travis Noonan | Caulfield (AUS) 21st Mar | Angel Capital | 10.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 1W-16L | P/L: -$11.80
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar 14:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | SCONE R2 1400m Hcap | 2. Hammoon Sensation | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 11:35 | BF | Nick Noonan | Ladbrokes Spring Hosted P... | Designer Dreamer | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | CARLTON DRAUGHT SHOWCASE ... | Marty Mcfly | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | ADRIAN LEDGER MEMORIAL SH... | Untethered | 4.70 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 11:35 | BF | Rebecca Hill | BARRIER REEF POOLS Fillie... | She Moves Too | 3.35 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 09:35 | BF | Matt Reid | Launceston (AUS) 20th Mar | Earendel | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 09:05 | BF | Sam Hyland | Albury (AUS) 20th Mar | Sargeant Stan | 5.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 20 Mar 09:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Scone (AUS) 20th Mar | Zucchero | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 20:05 | BF | Craig Morrison | WESTERN RACEPIX HANDICAP | Pure Chino | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 17:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ru... | Mackay (AUS) 19th Mar | Scrub Chain | 5.20 | $1.00 | WON | +$4.20 |
| 19 Mar 17:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Mackay (AUS) 19th Mar | Answering | 4.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 15:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Mackay (AUS) 19th Mar | Belvedere Miss | 7.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Cr... | Albany (AUS) 19th Mar | Top Of The Pops | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 12:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Cr... | Albany (AUS) 19th Mar | Pure Chino | 8.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | GOSFORD R4 1600m CL1 | 4. Gallahop | 9.00 | $1.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 19 Mar 11:35 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Mackay (AUS) 19th Mar | Blessed Boom | 9.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 10:05 | BF | Sam Hyland | Albury (AUS) 19th Mar | Star Bling | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 19 Mar 09:05 | BF | Dean Watling | Albany (AUS) 19th Mar | Pure Chino | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.Mar 22:08 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Menangle R8 | Kristal Josselyn | 3.25 | SKIP 20% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 21:41 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R7 | Shes Crunchy | 1.75 | SKIP 35% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 21:34 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Menangle R7 | Cerise Rainbow | 2.30 | SKIP 23% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 21:00 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Menangle R6 | Major Art | 2.94 | SKIP 27% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 20:39 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R5 | Seaside Glory | 1.45 | SKIP 39% | WON |
| 21.Mar 20:32 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Menangle R5 | Miki B | 1.60 | SKIP 31% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 20:26 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R10 | Malletier | 3.10 | SKIP 48% | WON |
| 21.Mar 20:00 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Menangle R4 | Catchafire | 1.46 | SKIP 41% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 19:47 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R9 | Bonjoy | 3.50 | SKIP 34% | WON |
| 21.Mar 19:47 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R9 | Bonjoy | 3.65 | SKIP 24% | WON |
| 21.Mar 19:32 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R3 | Iloveacalendergirl | 1.90 | SKIP 30% | WON |
| 21.Mar 19:25 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Menangle R3 | Perfect Stranger | 1.76 | SKIP 41% | WON |
| 21.Mar 19:12 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R8 | True Player | 2.90 | SKIP 27% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 19:12 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R8 | True Player | 2.64 | SKIP 55% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 18:57 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R2 | Whos Delight | 2.94 | SKIP 17% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 18:50 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Menangle R2 | Bainbridge | 4.90 | SKIP 25% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 18:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Albion Park R1 | Hot Rod Harry | 4.70 | SKIP 20% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 18:22 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Menangle R1 | Darin | 3.45 | SKIP 28% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 18:10 | Racing Com | Rebecca Hill | Eagle Farm R8 | Celestial Blaze | 3.10 | SKIP 34% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 17:59 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Ascot R6 | Influencing | 3.80 | SKIP 17% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 17:59 | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Ascot R6 | Influencing | 4.00 | SKIP 17% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 17:55 | SEN | Nick Noonan | Rosehill R10 | Inkaruna | 1.95 | SKIP 37% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 17:40 | SEN | Mick Gannon | Kembla Grange R8 | Midnight Opal | 3.90 | SKIP 20% | WON |
| 21.Mar 17:40 | Racing Com | Harry White | Kembla Grange R8 | Hyperbolic | 3.20 | SKIP 23% | LOST |
| 21.Mar 17:35 | SEN | Mick Gannon | Caulfield R10 | Enamorada | 3.00 | SKIP 24% | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 971 | 219W-728L | -$189.01 | -19.5% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 9,620 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 15 Mar 23:21 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.932
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.348 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.290 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.257 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.238 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.174 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.114 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.112 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.105 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.082 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.073 |
|
| Form Score | +0.054 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.050 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.039 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.039 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.034 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.034 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.022 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.021 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.019 |
|
| Barrier | +0.011 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.007 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1161 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1197 | 21% | 22% | +2% |
| 25-30% | 547 | 27% | 27% | +0% |
| 30-35% | 2733 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2314 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 651 | 44% | 33% | -11% |
| 50%+ | 919 | 60% | 42% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 39 | BET: 1 | SKIP: 38 | Settled: 38 | Avg EV: -0.02 | Accuracy: 73.7% | Brier: 0.166 vs Mkt 0.176 (+0.010)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 16:15 | Jared Timms | NO BF Group Chat | - | -0.54 | -26.9% | LB | Horse | 23.1% | SKIP | pending | |
| 21 Mar 22:08 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Kristal Josselyn | 3.25 | -0.36 | -11.0% | Sky | Harness | 19.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 21:41 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Shes Crunchy | 1.75 | -0.38 | -22.0% | Sky | Harness | 35.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 21:34 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Cerise Rainbow | 2.30 | -0.47 | -20.5% | Sky | Harness | 23.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 21:00 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Major Art | 2.94 | -0.20 | -6.9% | Sky | Harness | 27.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 20:39 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Seaside Glory | 1.45 | -0.43 | -29.9% | Sky | Harness | 39.1% | SKIP | WON +$0.45 | |
| 21 Mar 20:32 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Miki B | 1.60 | -0.51 | -31.6% | Sky | Harness | 30.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 20:26 | Rylie Morgan | Malletier | 3.10 | +0.49 | +15.9% | RC | Horse | 48.2% | SKIP | WON +$2.10 | |
| 21 Mar 20:00 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Catchafire | 1.46 | -0.41 | -27.9% | Sky | Harness | 40.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 19:47 | Rylie Morgan | Bonjoy | 3.50 | +0.19 | +5.6% | RC | Horse | 34.1% | SKIP | WON +$2.50 | |
| 21 Mar 19:47 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Bonjoy | 3.65 | -0.12 | -3.3% | Sky | Horse | 24.1% | SKIP | WON +$2.65 | |
| 21 Mar 19:32 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Iloveacalendergirl | 1.90 | -0.43 | -22.6% | Sky | Harness | 30.1% | SKIP | WON +$0.90 | |
| 21 Mar 19:25 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Perfect Stranger | 1.76 | -0.28 | -15.9% | Sky | Harness | 41.0% | SKIP | WON +$0.76 | |
| 21 Mar 19:12 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | True Player | 2.64 | +0.45 | +17.2% | Sky | Horse | 55.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 19:12 | Rylie Morgan | True Player | 2.90 | -0.22 | -7.6% | RC | Horse | 26.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 18:57 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Whos Delight | 2.94 | -0.51 | -17.3% | Sky | Harness | 16.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 18:50 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bainbridge | 4.90 | +0.24 | +4.8% | Sky | Harness | 25.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 18:30 | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | Hot Rod Harry | 4.70 | -0.04 | -0.9% | Sky | Harness | 20.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 18:22 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Darin | 3.45 | -0.02 | -0.6% | Sky | Harness | 28.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 18:10 | Rebecca Hill | Celestial Blaze | 3.10 | +0.05 | +1.6% | RC | Horse | 33.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:59 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Influencing | 3.80 | -0.37 | -9.7% | Sky | Horse | 16.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:59 | Rylie Morgan | Influencing | 4.00 | -0.32 | -8.0% | RC | Horse | 17.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:55 | Nick Noonan | Inkaruna | 1.95 | -0.27 | -13.9% | SEN | Horse | 37.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:40 | Mick Gannon | Midnight Opal | 3.90 | -0.24 | -6.0% | SEN | Horse | 19.6% | SKIP | WON +$2.90 | |
| 21 Mar 17:40 | Harry White | Hyperbolic | 3.20 | -0.27 | -8.6% | RC | Horse | 22.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:35 | Mick Gannon | Enamorada | 3.00 | -0.27 | -9.1% | SEN | Horse | 24.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:35 | Matt Hill | Enamorada | 2.90 | -0.27 | -9.3% | RC | Horse | 25.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:35 | Brent Zerafa | Enamorada | 2.90 | -0.26 | -9.0% | RC | Horse | 25.5% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:35 | Mark Hunter | Bullets High | 21.00 | +3.05 | +14.5% | SEN | Horse | 19.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:35 | David Strehlau | Bullets High | 20.00 | +2.74 | +13.7% | RC | Horse | 18.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:35 | Ben Asgari | Enamorada | 2.90 | -0.30 | -10.5% | RC | Horse | 24.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:35 | Tony Kneebone | Enamorada | 2.90 | -0.29 | -9.8% | RC | Horse | 24.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:35 | Clint Hutchison | Enamorada | 2.90 | -0.28 | -9.5% | RC | Horse | 25.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:27 | Chris Nelson | Facundo | 3.00 | -0.10 | -3.4% | SEN | Horse | 29.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:27 | Rebecca Hill | Rhapsody Chic | 10.00 | +1.17 | +11.7% | RC | Horse | 21.7% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:23 | Sky Racing - Ben Walker | Macleay | 4.20 | -0.15 | -3.5% | Sky | Horse | 20.3% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:21 | Rylie Morgan | Aurum Belle | 1.95 | -0.60 | -30.7% | RC | Horse | 20.6% | SKIP | WON +$0.95 | |
| 21 Mar 17:21 | Betfair Rated Model | 2. Hes A Machino | 4.87 | -0.01 | -0.3% | BF | Horse | 20.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 21 Mar 17:21 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Aurum Belle | 1.90 | -0.27 | -14.4% | Sky | Horse | 38.2% | SKIP | WON +$0.90 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |