+$43.41
Total P/L
| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 17 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.Mar 04:44* | Sportsbet | Ian Humphries | Canberra R5 | Soul Lady | 4.80 | SKIP 24% | TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:05* | Sky | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | ROCKHAMPTON R4 | Kayleen's Profit | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 15:14* | Sportsbet | Ian Humphries | Federal Hcp R5 | Soul Lady | 4.80 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 15:14* | Sportsbet | Ian Humphries | Tooheys Hcp R6 | Cruizingthestars | 1.55 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 15:05* | Betfair Model | Betfair AFL Model | Carlton v Melbourn... | Carlton | 1.86 | - | TRACK |
| 24.Mar 15:05* | Betfair Model | Betfair AFL Model | Essendon v North M... | Essendon | 1.94 | - | TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Yarra Valle... | Tipsy Gypsy | 3.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Yarra Valle... | I'm Foxing | 3.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Yarra Valle... | Done Leavy | 3.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Yarra Valle... | Done Leavy | 3.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Yarra Valle... | Got Out The Fence | 3.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Yarra Valle... | Just Remember It | 4.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Yarra Valle... | Galactic Force | 2.35 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Yarra Valle... | Raven's Silver | 5.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Yarra Valle... | Share The Stars | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Yarra Valle... | Tipsy Gypsy | 3.20 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Yarra Valle... | Written Royalty | 9.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Yarra Valle... | Torlaah | 7.50 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Adam Crettenden | bet365 Yarra Valle... | Wonboyn | 2.10 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Yarra Valle... | Selkie | 5.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Yarra Valle... | Kamchatka | 10.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Sam Lyons | bet365 Yarra Valle... | Tara's Crown | 6.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 11:26* | Racing Com | Harry White | Port Macquarie R6 | He's Cool | 3.30 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 10:08* | SEN | Campbell Brown | Yarra Valley R2 | I'm Foxing | 3.00 | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 09:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | ALBION PARK R9 | My Ultimate Victor | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 09:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | ALBION PARK R8 | Great Achiever | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 09:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | ALBION PARK R7 | Major Crunch | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | MENANGLE R9 | Cash And Bling | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 09:04* | Sky | Sky Racing - Russell Leonard | ROCKHAMPTON R4 | Kayleen's Profit | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
| 24.Mar 09:34* | Sky | Sky Racing - Chris Barsby | ALBION PARK R6 | Fate Awaits | - | - | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 1W-8L | P/L: +$0.00
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mar 15:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | PORT MACQUARIE R5 1200m C... | 1. Tides Turning | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Mar 15:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | ROCKHAMPTON R3 1400m Mdn | 6. Leica Flamingo | 9.00 | $1.00 | WON | +$8.00 |
| 24 Mar 13:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | YARRA VALLEY R3 1500m Mdn | 8. Crismera | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Nelson | Supagas BM60 Handicap | Storm Force Ten | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Mar 11:35 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | YARRA VALLEY R1 1200m 3yo | 4. Fully Funded | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Mar 11:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Rockhampton (AUS) 24th Ma... | Electric Brae | 8.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Mar 11:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Mi... | Rockhampton (AUS) 24th Ma... | Heroic Talent | 7.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Mar 09:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Ru... | Rockhampton (AUS) 24th Ma... | Amberinger | 7.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 24 Mar 09:05 | BF | Sky Racing - Be... | Port Macquarie (AUS) 24th... | Master Zous | 6.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
Record: 0W-4L | P/L: -$4.00
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Mar 12:35 | BF | Amanda Rando | Bathurst (AUS) 23rd Mar | Berocca Bernie | 7.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 22 Mar 12:05 | BF | Betfair Rated M... | TAUHERENIKAU R3 1600m 3yo | 8. I Love Lucy | 8.40 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 22 Mar 11:35 | BF | John Kelton | Squib Group Benchmark 66 ... | Lonely One | 4.80 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 22 Mar 11:35 | BF | Chris Camilleri | TAMBURLAINE ORGANIC WINE ... | Kirk | 7.60 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.Mar 18:20 | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Rockhampton R7 | Villandry | 3.80 | SKIP 29% | LOST |
| 24.Mar 18:20 | Sky | Sky Racing - Russell Leonard | Rockhampton R7 | Villandry | 3.60 | SKIP 28% | LOST |
| 24.Mar 18:20 | Sky | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Rockhampton R7 | Our Heart Throb | 5.40 | SKIP 24% | LOST |
| 24.Mar 17:45 | Sky | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Rockhampton R6 | Electric Brae | 8.00 | BET 20% | LOST |
| 24.Mar 17:45 | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Rockhampton R6 | Storm Force Ten | 8.00 | BET 21% | LOST |
| 24.Mar 17:45 | Sky | Sky Racing - Russell Leonard | Rockhampton R6 | Amberinger | 7.80 | BET 23% | LOST |
| 24.Mar 17:30 | Racing Com | Harry White | Port Macquarie R8 | Headstream | 3.90 | SKIP 26% | LOST |
| 24.Mar 17:30 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Port Macquarie R8 | 13. Headstream | 4.50 | SKIP 25% | LOST |
| 24.Mar 17:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Belinda Smith | Port Macquarie R8 | Steely Girl | 4.40 | SKIP 21% | LOST |
| 24.Mar 17:30 | Sky | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Port Macquarie R8 | Headstream | 4.60 | SKIP 23% | LOST |
| 24.Mar 17:10 | Sky | Sky Racing - Russell Leonard | Rockhampton R5 | Subsidise | 2.12 | SKIP 33% | LOST |
| 24.Mar 17:10 | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Rockhampton R5 | Betta Than Presley | 4.50 | SKIP 32% | WON |
| 24.Mar 17:10 | Sky | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Rockhampton R5 | Betta Than Presley | 4.40 | SKIP 26% | WON |
| 24.Mar 15:30 | Payload | Glenn Ingram | - | Tipsy Gypsy | - | - | LOST |
| 24.Mar 13:30 | Payload | Betfair Data Scientists | - | Fully Funded | - | - | LOST |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 983 | 220W-739L | -$189.01 | -19.2% |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 9,769 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 15 Mar 23:21 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.932
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.348 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.290 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.257 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.238 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.174 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.114 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.112 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.105 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.082 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.073 |
|
| Form Score | +0.054 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.050 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.039 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.039 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.034 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.034 |
|
| Recent Form | +0.022 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.021 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.019 |
|
| Barrier | +0.011 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.007 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1161 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1278 | 21% | 22% | +1% |
| 25-30% | 578 | 27% | 27% | -0% |
| 30-35% | 2748 | 34% | 28% | -6% |
| 35-40% | 2323 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 659 | 44% | 33% | -12% |
| 50%+ | 924 | 60% | 42% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 14 | BET: 3 | SKIP: 11 | Settled: 13 | Avg EV: +0.22 | Accuracy: 61.5% | Brier: 0.131 vs Mkt 0.144 (+0.012)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Mar 16:26 | Ian Humphries | Soul Lady | 4.80 | +0.15 | +3.2% | SB | Horse | 24.0% | SKIP | pending | |
| 24 Mar 18:20 | Chris Nelson | Villandry | 3.80 | +0.09 | +2.5% | RC | Horse | 28.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 24 Mar 18:20 | Sky Racing - Russell Leonard | Villandry | 3.60 | -0.00 | -0.1% | Sky | Horse | 27.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 24 Mar 18:20 | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Our Heart Throb | 5.40 | +0.28 | +5.2% | Sky | Horse | 23.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 24 Mar 17:45 | Chris Nelson | Storm Force Ten | 8.00 | +0.72 | +9.0% | RC | Horse | 21.5% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 24 Mar 17:45 | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Electric Brae | 8.00 | +0.59 | +7.4% | Sky | Horse | 19.9% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 24 Mar 17:45 | Sky Racing - Russell Leonard | Amberinger | 7.80 | +0.82 | +10.5% | Sky | Horse | 23.3% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 24 Mar 17:30 | Harry White | Headstream | 3.90 | +0.02 | +0.5% | RC | Horse | 26.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 24 Mar 17:30 | Sky Racing - Rod Fuller | Headstream | 4.60 | +0.07 | +1.5% | Sky | Horse | 23.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 24 Mar 17:30 | Sky Racing - Belinda Smith | Steely Girl | 4.40 | -0.07 | -1.7% | Sky | Horse | 21.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 24 Mar 17:30 | Betfair Rated Model | 13. Headstream | 4.50 | +0.11 | +2.5% | BF | Horse | 24.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 24 Mar 17:10 | Chris Nelson | Betta Than Presley | 4.50 | +0.45 | +10.0% | RC | Horse | 32.2% | SKIP | WON +$3.50 | |
| 24 Mar 17:10 | Sky Racing - Michael Charge | Betta Than Presley | 4.40 | +0.12 | +2.8% | Sky | Horse | 25.5% | SKIP | WON +$3.40 | |
| 24 Mar 17:10 | Sky Racing - Russell Leonard | Subsidise | 2.12 | -0.30 | -14.1% | Sky | Horse | 33.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |