| Time | Tipster | Selection | Odds | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03T11:05 | Betfair Cricket Trader | New Zealand | 2.52 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:35 | Matt Welsh | 8. Ladhar | 4.90 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-27T00:05 | Ben Asgari | 1. Bel Merci | 4.70 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T05:05 | Stats Insider | 4. Tentyris | 3.05 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-14T00:35 | Tony Kneebone | Tentyris | 2.74 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-11T06:35 | Ace Previews | Aleksandar Vukic | 2.96 | $1.00 |
| 2026-02-10T10:05 | Ace Previews | Zizou Bergs | 2.10 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Extraglow | 2.00 | $1.00 |
| 2026-01-30T01:35 | Cam Luke | Shaddap | 3.25 | $1.00 |
| 2025-12-29T06:35 | Michael Tye | 3. Irish Zoe | 3.00 | $1.00 |
Note: Lapsed bets occur when the odds move before your bet is matched. Also showing 21 void bets (scratched horses, cancelled events).
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Strategy | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09.Apr 01:44* | Sportsbet | Scott McDonell | Cairns (AUS) 9th A... | Chica Poderosa | 1.70 | SKIP | TRACK |
| 08.Apr 18:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Pakenham R7 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 18:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Pakenham R6 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 18:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Pakenham R6 | Bajaria | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 18:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Pakenham R2 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 18:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Pakenham R2 | Concord Connie | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 18:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Pakenham R1 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 18:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Pakenham R1 | Wonderful Sky | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 16:56* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R3 | Mr Frodo | 2.20 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 16:44* | Sportsbet | Howard Walter | Quick Multi R8 | Fasvara | 4.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 15:56* | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Sale R5 | Mainmankash | 4.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 15:56* | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Sale R5 | Mainmankash | 4.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 13:44* | Sportsbet | Scott McDonell | RNone None | Chica Poderosa | 1.60 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 12:44* | Sportsbet | Scott McDonell | Hosted Pots Hcp R6 | First Man | 9.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 11:08* | SEN | Miles Pfitzner | Sale R4 | He's Fierce | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 10:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R2 | Royal Trooper | 2.60 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 10:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R4 | Playa Del Sol | 4.50 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 10:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R5 | Kanas Mtoto | 2.15 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 10:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R7 | I'm Nipote | 10.00 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 10:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R6 | King Brew | 1.80 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 10:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R1 | Hillside Avenue | 1.85 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 10:26* | Racing Com | Rylie Morgan | Pinjarra Park R3 | Batcity | 2.25 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 08.Apr 10:26* | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Eagle Farm R4 | Don't Doubt Missy | 2.10 | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 07.Apr 20:45* | Betfair Model | Betfair AFL Model | Sydney Swans v Gol... | Sydney | 1.89 | SKIP | TRACK |
| 07.Apr 18:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Eagle Farm R8 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 07.Apr 18:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Eagle Farm R8 | Fasvara | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 07.Apr 18:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Eagle Farm R6 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 07.Apr 18:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Eagle Farm R6 | Moulin Miss | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 07.Apr 18:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Eagle Farm R3 | Place | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
| 07.Apr 18:09* | Neds Blog | Craig Sheppard | Eagle Farm R3 | Heroic Rebel | - | SKIP | NO BF TRACK |
Record: 5W-5L | P/L: +$7.18
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Apr 12:16 | BF | Miles Pfitzner | Pinjarra (AUS) 8th Apr | Royal Trooper | 2.64 | $2.00 | WON | +$3.28 |
| 08 Apr 12:16 | BF | Miles Pfitzner | Pinjarra (AUS) 8th Apr | Batcity | 2.34 | $2.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 08 Apr 12:01 | BF | Sam Hyland | Sale (AUS) 8th Apr | Blue Cowboy | 7.20 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Apr 12:01 | BF | Sam Hyland | Hawkesbury (AUS) 8th Apr | Spione | 3.55 | $1.00 | WON | +$2.55 |
| 08 Apr 12:01 | BF | Sam Hyland | Pinjarra (AUS) 8th Apr | All The Rage | 9.00 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Apr 10:31 | BF | Matt Hill | Johnson Plumbing & Gas BM... | Two To Tango | 3.50 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Apr 10:31 | BF | Matt Hill | Sale Mowers & Chainsaws M... | Mad About Magnus | 2.28 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Apr 10:31 | BF | Matt Hill | Ladbrokes Mega Multi BM62... | Winter Nights | 3.45 | $1.00 | LOST | -$1.00 |
| 08 Apr 10:31 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Johnson Plumbing & Gas Ma... | Lauberhorn | 1.66 | $2.00 | WON | +$1.32 |
| 08 Apr 10:31 | BF | Clint Hutchison | Kress Robot Mowers BM66 H... | Choir Point | 1.97 | $2.00 | VOID | +$0.00 |
| 08 Apr 10:31 | BF | Clint Hutchison | No.1 Car Wash Maiden Plat... | Good Harmony | 2.36 | $2.00 | WON | +$2.72 |
| 08 Apr 10:31 | BF | Matt Hill | Programmed Property Servi... | Fatty Finn | 1.77 | $3.00 | WON | +$2.31 |
Record: 3W-1L | P/L: +$12.08
| Time | Src | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr 11:31 | BF | Campbell Brown | Grafton (AUS) 7th Apr | Slugworth | 3.45 | $2.00 | LOST | -$2.00 |
| 06 Apr 13:01 | BF | Alex Vlahos | RACING WA PROVINCIAL SERI... | Masamune | 2.74 | $2.00 | WON | +$3.48 |
| 06 Apr 13:01 | BF | Michael Heaton | WITTENS IRRIGATION & DESI... | Saucisson | 4.40 | $2.00 | WON | +$6.80 |
| 06 Apr 13:01 | BF | Michael Heaton | DIANELLA TAB HANDICAP | Scream | 2.90 | $2.00 | WON | +$3.80 |
| Time (AEST) | Source | Tipster | Event | Selection | Odds | AI | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08.Apr 21:19 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R8 | Guarded Prognosis | 1.21 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 20:44 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R7 | Absolute Weapon | 8.20 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 20:10 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R6 | You Are My Wish | 1.23 | SKIP | WON |
| 08.Apr 19:40 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R5 | Lochinvar Marcello | 3.45 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 19:13 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R4 | Grayson Red | 3.85 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 19:10 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R7 | Just Leroy | 3.40 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 18:42 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R3 | Nicely Spoken | 1.95 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 18:35 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Pinjarra R6 | 3. Toronado Rocket | 5.11 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 18:35 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R6 | Setagaya | 3.40 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 18:12 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R2 | Its Down To Digger | 1.80 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 18:00 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Pinjarra R5 | 9. Rigatoni | 6.73 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 18:00 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R5 | Kanas Mtoto | 2.34 | SKIP | WON |
| 08.Apr 17:42 | Sky | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Bathurst R1 | Get Up Betty | 12.00 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 17:25 | Rated | Betfair Rated Model | Pinjarra R4 | 7. Tedeschi | 8.17 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 17:25 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R4 | Quokka Rocka | 2.76 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 17:10 | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Sale R8 | Sabi Storm | 3.80 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 17:10 | Racing Com | Matt Hill | Sale R8 | Winter Nights | 3.60 | WL $1 | LOST |
| 08.Apr 17:00 | Racing Com | Chris Camilleri | Hawkesbury R6 | Bella Khadijah | 6.00 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 16:50 | Sky | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Pinjarra R3 | Batcity | 2.34 | SKIP | VOID |
| 08.Apr 16:50 | SEN | Miles Pfitzner | Pinjarra R3 | Batcity | 2.25 | CONS $2 | VOID |
| 08.Apr 16:43 | Racing Com | Chris Nelson | Eagle Farm R8 | Fasvara | 4.20 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 16:35 | SEN | Sam Hyland | Sale R7 | Blue Cowboy | 7.50 | WL $1 | LOST |
| 08.Apr 16:35 | Racing Com | Clint Hutchison | Sale R7 | Small Town Hero | 3.00 | SKIP | WON |
| 08.Apr 16:25 | Racing Com | Chris Camilleri | Hawkesbury R5 | Aligned | 3.30 | SKIP | LOST |
| 08.Apr 16:25 | SEN | Sam Hyland | Hawkesbury R5 | Spione | 3.60 | WL $1 | WON |
| Source | Bets | Record | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bf Rated Model | 55 | 12W-41L | +$18.97 | +34.5% |
| Hub Best Bets | 462 | 146W-304L | -$97.96 | -21.2% |
| Betfair Tips | 1217 | 283W-906L | -$118.15 | -9.7% |
Dynamic whitelist (10 tipsters) + consensus detection (7 groups) + tiered staking. No LAY bets. Sources filtered: sky_racing, sportsbet_racing, payload.
| Tipster | P/L | Bets | WR | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Data Scientists | $58.61 | 105 | 28% | 55.8% |
| Matt Hill | $43.96 | 79 | 38% | 47.3% |
| David Strehlau | $39.43 | 106 | 30% | 33.4% |
| Ben Asgari | $19.69 | 129 | 28% | 13.8% |
| Adam Olszanski | $16.92 | 54 | 30% | 31.3% |
| Brent Zerafa | $14.35 | 129 | 33% | 10.6% |
| Sam Hyland | $13.75 | 99 | 29% | 13.9% |
| John Kelton | $8.90 | 118 | 36% | 7.4% |
| Nick Noonan | $5.96 | 125 | 29% | 4.7% |
| Tony Kneebone | $1.98 | 86 | 29% | 2.1% |
Staking: WL+Consensus=$3 | Consensus=$2 | Whitelist=$1
| Selection | Event | Tips | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fatty Finn | Programmed Property | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Good Harmony | No.1 Car Wash Maiden | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Choir Point | Kress Robot Mowers B | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Mainmankash | Kress Robot Mowers B | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Batcity | Pinjarra (AUS) 8th A | 2 | CONS $2 |
| Lauberhorn | Johnson Plumbing & G | 2 | WL+CONS $3 |
| Royal Trooper | Pinjarra (AUS) 8th A | 2 | CONS $2 |
Model: logistic_v5 | Training Data: 10,985 samples | L2 Lambda: 0.1 | Calibration: 0 points | Last Retrain: 29 Mar 13:45 AEST
How each feature affects P(win). Bias: -0.959
Green = increases / Red = decreases win probability
| Feature | Weight | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trainer Edge | +0.326 |
|
| Jockey Edge | +0.283 |
|
| Log Odds | -0.253 |
|
| Odds Bracket Edge | -0.241 |
|
| Implied Prob | +0.184 |
|
| Tipster x Odds | +0.123 |
|
| Venue Edge | +0.092 |
|
| Is LAY Bet | +0.091 |
|
| Tipster Edge (All) | +0.084 |
|
| Consensus 2+ | +0.080 |
|
| Form Score | +0.068 |
|
| Tipster Volume | +0.058 |
|
| Source Edge | +0.053 |
|
| Days Since Run | -0.027 |
|
| Tipster Consensus | +0.025 |
|
| Odds Movement | -0.023 |
|
| Horse Age | +0.023 |
|
| Recent Form | -0.017 |
|
| Barrier | +0.017 |
|
| Tipster Edge (30d) | +0.002 |
|
| Category Edge | -0.001 |
|
Predicted vs actual win rates
| Prob Range | Count | Predicted | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15% | 1162 | 9% | 19% | +10% |
| 15-25% | 1757 | 21% | 21% | +1% |
| 25-30% | 874 | 27% | 28% | +0% |
| 30-35% | 2922 | 34% | 28% | -5% |
| 35-40% | 2422 | 37% | 32% | -5% |
| 40-50% | 761 | 44% | 34% | -11% |
| 50%+ | 979 | 59% | 42% | -17% |
Last 12 hours and next 12 hours of tips, sorted by event time. Showing: 31 | BET: 3 | SKIP: 28 | Settled: 30 | Avg EV: +0.06 | Accuracy: 73.3% | Brier: 0.137 vs Mkt 0.147 (+0.010)
| Event (AEST) | Tipster | Selection | Odds | EV | Edge | Source | Type | AI Prob | Decision | Top Factor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Apr 13:34 | Scott McDonell | Chica Poderosa | 1.70 | -0.36 | -21.4% | SB | Horse | 37.5% | SKIP | pending | |
| 08 Apr 21:19 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Guarded Prognosis | 1.21 | -0.50 | -41.0% | Sky | Harness | 41.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 20:44 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Absolute Weapon | 8.20 | +0.78 | +9.5% | Sky | Harness | 21.7% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 20:10 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | You Are My Wish | 1.23 | -0.33 | -26.8% | Sky | Harness | 54.5% | SKIP | WON +$0.23 | |
| 08 Apr 19:40 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Lochinvar Marcello | 3.45 | +0.07 | +2.2% | Sky | Harness | 31.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 19:13 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Grayson Red | 3.85 | -0.07 | -1.9% | Sky | Harness | 24.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 19:10 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Just Leroy | 3.40 | -0.08 | -2.3% | Sky | Horse | 27.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 18:42 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Nicely Spoken | 1.95 | -0.29 | -14.9% | Sky | Harness | 36.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 18:35 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Setagaya | 3.40 | +0.02 | +0.6% | Sky | Horse | 30.1% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 18:35 | Betfair Rated Model | 3. Toronado Rocket | 5.11 | -0.16 | -3.2% | BF | Horse | 16.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 18:12 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Its Down To Digger | 1.80 | -0.36 | -20.2% | Sky | Harness | 35.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 18:00 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Kanas Mtoto | 2.34 | +0.05 | +2.0% | Sky | Horse | 44.7% | SKIP | WON +$1.34 | |
| 08 Apr 18:00 | Betfair Rated Model | 9. Rigatoni | 6.73 | +0.34 | +5.0% | BF | Horse | 19.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 17:42 | Sky Racing - Fred Hastings | Get Up Betty | 12.00 | +1.37 | +11.4% | Sky | Harness | 19.7% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 17:25 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Quokka Rocka | 2.76 | -0.25 | -9.2% | Sky | Horse | 27.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 17:25 | Betfair Rated Model | 7. Tedeschi | 8.17 | +0.47 | +5.8% | BF | Horse | 18.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 17:10 | Matt Hill | Winter Nights | 3.60 | +0.64 | +17.6% | RC | Horse | 45.4% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 17:10 | Clint Hutchison | Sabi Storm | 3.80 | -0.36 | -9.4% | RC | Horse | 16.9% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 17:00 | Chris Camilleri | Bella Khadijah | 6.00 | +0.33 | +5.5% | RC | Horse | 22.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 16:50 | Miles Pfitzner | Batcity | 2.25 | -0.16 | -7.1% | SEN | Horse | 37.4% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 08 Apr 16:50 | Sky Racing - Darren McAullay | Batcity | 2.34 | -0.04 | -1.6% | Sky | Horse | 41.2% | SKIP | LOST -$0.00 | |
| 08 Apr 16:43 | Chris Nelson | Fasvara | 4.20 | +0.05 | +1.2% | RC | Horse | 25.0% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 16:43 | Howard Walter | Fasvara | 3.80 | -0.23 | -6.1% | SB | Horse | 20.2% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 16:35 | Clint Hutchison | Small Town Hero | 3.00 | -0.16 | -5.2% | RC | Horse | 28.1% | SKIP | WON +$2.00 | |
| 08 Apr 16:35 | Sam Hyland | Blue Cowboy | 7.50 | +1.05 | +14.0% | SEN | Horse | 27.3% | BET | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 16:25 | Sam Hyland | Spione | 3.60 | -0.26 | -7.3% | SEN | Horse | 20.4% | SKIP | WON +$2.55 | |
| 08 Apr 16:25 | Chris Camilleri | Aligned | 3.30 | +0.05 | +1.5% | RC | Horse | 31.8% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 16:15 | Miles Pfitzner | Royal Trooper | 2.50 | -0.10 | -4.2% | SEN | Horse | 35.8% | SKIP | WON +$3.44 | |
| 08 Apr 16:08 | Betfair Rated Model | 11. Saveur | 6.20 | +0.22 | +3.5% | BF | Horse | 19.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 16:08 | Chris Nelson | Saveur | 4.50 | +0.20 | +4.3% | RC | Horse | 26.6% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 | |
| 08 Apr 16:08 | Howard Walter | Piston Rebel | 4.20 | +0.02 | +0.5% | SB | Horse | 24.4% | SKIP | LOST -$1.00 |
Solid = v4+ (Platt, threshold 0.50), Dashed = v3 (Platt, threshold 0.30). Running total of hypothetical $1 P/L for BET vs SKIP picks (last 30 days).
Green solid = actual cumulative P/L from v4 BET picks. Cyan dashed = cumulative expected value (model prediction). Dashed projection = 30-day forecast based on recent trend. Shaded band = 95% confidence interval.
Actual ROI grouped by predicted EV. Blue = v3, Green = v4+ (current: logistic_v5).
How far off each model's predicted probability is from reality. Bars closer to zero = better calibrated. Positive = overconfident (predicted higher than actual win rate).
How well the model's predictions match reality for BET decisions (EV ≥ 0.50). The overall average hides the problem — overconfidence is worst at high predicted probabilities where bets happen.
Predicted probability vs actual win rate for recent v4+ decisions only. Green bars = well calibrated, red bars = overconfident.
The AI betting agent uses an L2-regularised logistic regression model (logistic_v5) trained on historical expert tip outcomes. Calibrated with Platt scaling, EV threshold 0.50, max odds 10.0. It analyses each new tip in real time, predicting the probability of winning, and recommends BET or SKIP based on expected value.
| # | Feature | Type | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | log_odds | Odds | Natural logarithm of the decimal odds. Normalises the wide odds range (1.5 to 50+) into a compressed scale so the model treats short and long prices proportionally. |
| 2 | implied_prob | Odds | Break-even probability derived from odds (1/odds). At $3.00 odds, you need to win 33% of the time to break even. This is the baseline the model tries to beat. |
| 3 | tipster_edge_30d | Edge | Tipster's recent 30-day edge: (actual win rate) minus (average implied probability). Positive means the tipster is beating the market recently. Shrunk toward zero when sample size is under 30 tips. |
| 4 | tipster_edge_all | Edge | Tipster's all-time edge across their full history. More stable than 30d but slower to react to form changes. Also shrunk toward zero with small samples. |
| 5 | tipster_volume | Edge | Log of the tipster's total bet count. More data means the tipster's edge measurement is more reliable. Acts as an implicit confidence signal. |
| 6 | source_edge | Edge | Edge of the data source (Betfair, Hub, SEN, Sky Racing, Sportsbet, Racing.com). Measures whether tips from a particular platform systematically outperform or underperform the market. |
| 7 | category_edge | Edge | Edge for the sport/category (horse racing, harness, greyhounds, AFL, etc.). Some sports may be more predictable by experts than others. |
| 8 | odds_bracket_edge | Edge | Edge for the odds range: short (<2.0), mid (2-3.5), midlong (3.5-6), long (6-10), very long (10+). Captures whether experts are better at picking favourites vs long shots. |
| 9 | tipster_x_odds_edge | Interaction | Interaction between tipster and odds bracket. A tipster might be excellent at picking short-priced winners but poor at long shots (or vice versa). This feature captures that specialisation. |
| 10 | venue_edge | Racing | Edge for the race venue (Flemington, Randwick, etc.). Some tracks have structural biases that expert tipsters exploit better than others. Zero for non-racing or unknown venues. |
| 11 | jockey_edge | Racing | Jockey profitability edge. Some jockeys consistently win more often than their odds suggest. Measures if the jockey adds value beyond market expectations. Zero if jockey data unavailable. |
| 12 | trainer_edge | Racing | Trainer profitability edge. Captures whether a trainer's horses outperform or underperform their market odds. Shrunk toward zero with limited data. |
| 13 | tipster_recent_form | Momentum | Recent 14-day win rate minus all-time win rate. Positive = tipster is on a hot streak. Negative = cold streak. Requires at least 3 recent tips to compute, otherwise zero. |
| 14 | tipster_consensus | Signal | Log of distinct tipsters who picked the same market+selection. More consensus = stronger signal. Built from all historical tips. |
| 15 | odds_movement | Market | Difference between Betfair exchange odds and tip source odds, as a fraction. Positive = price drifting (less backed). Available for ~29% of tips. |
| 16 | is_lay | v7 | 1 if the tip is a LAY bet, 0 for BACK. LAY bets have inverted P/L (small wins, large losses). The model learned LAY bets at long odds are unprofitable. |
| 17 | consensus_2plus | v7 | Binary: 1 if 2+ tipsters picked the same selection, 0 otherwise. Data shows consensus picks lose only -3% ROI vs -16.5% for solo picks. |
| 18 | form_score | Racing | Parsed from the horse's recent form string (e.g. "548141"). Weighted average of finishing positions (recent results weighted more). Higher = better form. Zero if no form data. |
| 19 | barrier | Racing | Starting barrier position (stall draw). Inside barriers tend to have an advantage on tight tracks. Zero if not available (~85% of tips). |
| 20 | days_since_run | Racing | Days since the horse last raced. Rest period affects fitness/freshness. The model learned a small negative weight (-0.021) suggesting longer rest is slightly worse. |
| 21 | horse_age | Racing | Horse age in years. Performance varies by age — younger horses may be improving, older horses declining. Zero if not available. |