Betfair Data Scientists

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (10 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 20.0% trails market-implied 28.9% by -8.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

20.0%

Avg Odds

3.68

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-2.76

ROI

-27.6%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

28.9%

Calibration Gap

-8.9pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	10	$-2.76	-27.6%
Minus best 1 bet	9	$-5.76	-64.0%
Minus best 2 bets	8	$-8.00	-100.0%
Minus best 5 bets	5	$-5.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	6	16.7%	3.96	$-2.00	-33.3%
2026-05	4	25.0%	3.25	$-0.76	-19.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	7	28.6%	+$0.24	+3.4%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
payload	8	12.5%	$-4.76	-59.5%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	4	25.0%	$-0.76	-19.0%
Tue	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Thu	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-04		3. Cindersea	4.00	+$3.00
2026-05-25	mornington	Meisho	3.24	+$2.24

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-04	alice springs	Bender McGee	4.00	$-1.00
2026-05-11	echuca	Zuppa Inglese	3.12	$-1.00
2026-03-04		1. True Amor	3.10	$-1.00
2026-05-11	corowa	Under Wraps	2.65	$-1.00
2026-03-19	redcliffe	Exit Stage Left	4.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.