← Back to dashboard
Daniel Nuttall
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (55 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 14.5% trails market-implied 23.1% by -8.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -40.0%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-80.0%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -34.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw -54.5%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -24.7% (-29.9% → -54.5%) · Shrunk ROI: -11.4% (-23.4% → -34.8%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-30.00
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-34.8%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
23.1%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 55 | $-30.00 | -54.5% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 54 | $-33.80 | -62.6% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 53 | $-37.20 | -70.2% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 50 | $-44.40 | -88.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 20 | 5.0% | 6.72 | $-16.00 | -80.0% |
| 2026-07 | 35 | 20.0% | 6.49 | $-14.00 | -40.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 3 | 66.7% | +$0.40 | +13.3% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 7 | 28.6% | $-2.40 | -34.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 18 | 22.2% | $-1.00 | -5.6% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 13 | 0.0% | $-13.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 11 | 0.0% | $-11.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 11 | 45.5% | +$1.40 | +12.7% |
| Rank 2 | 6 | 33.3% | +$2.60 | +43.3% |
| Rank 3 | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 35 of 55 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 30 | 23.3% | $-9.00 | -30.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 55 | 14.5% | $-30.00 | -54.5% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sunshine coast | 9 | 22.2% | +$0.20 | +2.2% |
| gatton | 6 | 16.7% | $-2.00 | -33.3% |
| aquis beaudesert | 6 | 33.3% | $-2.30 | -38.3% |
| mount gambier | 7 | 14.3% | $-3.20 | -45.7% |
| rockhampton | 8 | 25.0% | $-3.70 | -46.2% |
| mackay | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| naracoorte | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| port augusta | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 6 | 33.3% | $-2.30 | -38.3% |
| Thu | 13 | 15.4% | $-8.70 | -66.9% |
| Fri | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Sat | 9 | 22.2% | +$0.20 | +2.2% |
| Sun | 26 | 7.7% | $-18.20 | -70.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 40.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.48 (-49.6% ROI) on 5 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-04 | sunshine coast | Cellarmaster | 4.80 | +$3.80 |
| 2026-07-04 | sunshine coast | Steady Ready | 4.40 | +$3.40 |
| 2026-04-26 | gatton | Encrypted Feeling | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
| 2026-07-12 | mount gambier | Terralight | 3.80 | +$2.80 |
| 2026-07-09 | rockhampton | Icymiss | 2.40 | +$1.40 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-19 | naracoorte | Crown And Anchor | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-09 | rockhampton | Ten Carat Lucy | 3.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-02 | mackay | La Petite Maison | 4.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-12 | mount gambier | So Grand | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-04 | sunshine coast | North Pole | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.