Daniel Nuttall

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 16.9% trails market-implied 26.0% by -9.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -35.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -53.1%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +1.4% (-54.5% → -53.1%) · Shrunk ROI: +6.1% (-41.8% → -35.7%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

16.9%

Avg Odds

5.41

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-34.53

ROI

-53.1%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-35.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

26.0%

Calibration Gap

-9.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	65	$-34.53	-53.1%
Minus best 1 bet	64	$-39.53	-61.8%
Minus best 2 bets	63	$-42.43	-67.3%
Minus best 5 bets	60	$-49.73	-82.9%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-58.4%

Prior 60d ROI

-51.7%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	7	14.3%	4.81	$-3.20	-45.7%
2026-08	25	20.0%	5.39	$-10.55	-42.2%
2026-09	26	15.4%	5.37	$-17.18	-66.1%
2026-10	7	14.3%	6.23	$-3.60	-51.4%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	5	80.0%	+$0.32	+6.4%
2.0-3.0	6	33.3%	$-1.05	-17.5%
3.0-5.0	23	17.4%	$-8.80	-38.3%
5.0-8.0	20	5.0%	$-14.00	-70.0%
8.0-15	9	0.0%	$-9.00	-100.0%
15+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	18	33.3%	$-7.13	-39.6%
Rank 2	15	20.0%	$-3.90	-26.0%
Rank 3	9	11.1%	$-6.50	-72.2%
Rank 4-5	18	5.6%	$-12.00	-66.7%
Rank 6+	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

Based on 65 of 65 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	9	0.0%	$-9.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	56	19.6%	$-25.53	-45.6%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	65	16.9%	$-34.53	-53.1%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
picklebet park warwick	8	25.0%	$-0.50	-6.2%
northam	5	20.0%	$-1.10	-22.0%
mount gambier	7	14.3%	$-3.20	-45.7%
dalby	15	26.7%	$-8.08	-53.9%
kilcoy	16	12.5%	$-10.15	-63.4%
belmont	14	7.1%	$-11.50	-82.1%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Tue	23	21.7%	$-7.60	-33.0%
Wed	6	16.7%	$-3.50	-58.3%
Thu	5	20.0%	$-1.10	-22.0%
Sat	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
Sun	23	17.4%	$-14.33	-62.3%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 60.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.19 (-3.7% ROI) on 5 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-04	picklebet park warwick	Sutherland	6.00	+$5.00
2026-09-03	northam	Pure Mac	3.90	+$2.90
2026-07-12	mount gambier	Terralight	3.80	+$2.80
2026-10-06	kilcoy	Quantum Overdrive	3.40	+$2.40
2026-08-11	dalby	Jemeldi	3.10	+$2.10

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-23	kilcoy	Lord Danilo	8.00	$-1.00
2026-08-11	dalby	Invisible Target	7.00	$-1.00
2026-10-06	kilcoy	Rockrata	5.50	$-1.00
2026-07-12	mount gambier	So Grand	6.50	$-1.00
2026-09-05	belmont	Dirty Habits	6.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.