Daniel Nuttall

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (34 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 11.8% trails market-implied 24.2% by -12.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -73.7%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+31.4%) — trend is declining.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

11.8%

Avg Odds

5.61

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-17.70

ROI

-52.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

24.2%

Calibration Gap

-12.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	34	$-17.70	-52.1%
Minus best 1 bet	33	$-22.70	-68.8%
Minus best 2 bets	32	$-25.70	-80.3%
Minus best 5 bets	29	$-29.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-73.7%

Prior 60d ROI

+31.4%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	7	28.6%	4.04	+$2.20	+31.4%
2026-04	27	7.4%	6.02	$-19.90	-73.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	12	25.0%	$-1.70	-14.2%
5.0-8.0	8	12.5%	$-2.00	-25.0%
8.0-15	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	34	11.8%	$-17.70	-52.1%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
mount gambier	7	28.6%	+$2.20	+31.4%
gatton	6	16.7%	$-2.00	-33.3%
naracoorte	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%
port augusta	14	7.1%	$-10.90	-77.9%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Fri	8	25.0%	+$1.20	+15.0%
Sun	26	7.7%	$-18.90	-72.7%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-13	mount gambier	Iliad	6.00	+$5.00
2026-04-26	gatton	Encrypted Feeling	4.00	+$3.00
2026-03-13	mount gambier	Dantooine	3.20	+$2.20
2026-04-12	port augusta	Holder Maid	3.10	+$2.10

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-13	mount gambier	Shooter Mcgavin	2.90	$-1.00
2026-04-19	naracoorte	Crown And Anchor	5.50	$-1.00
2026-04-12	port augusta	Wandering Eye	5.50	$-1.00
2026-04-26	port augusta	Dragon Fish	11.00	$-1.00
2026-04-19	naracoorte	Sweetsop	26.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.