Scott Hill

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (9 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 33.3% trails market-implied 37.7% by -4.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

33.3%

Avg Odds

4.17

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-4.96

ROI

-55.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

37.7%

Calibration Gap

-4.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	9	33.3%	4.17	$-4.96	-55.1%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	33.3%	$-1.39	-46.3%
3.0-5.0	3	33.3%	$-1.74	-58.0%
5.0-8.0	3	33.3%	$-1.83	-61.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	9	33.3%	$-4.96	-55.1%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
gloucester park	5	40.0%	$-2.22	-44.4%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-03	gloucester park	1. Holy Moley	1.61	+$0.61
2026-03-02		7. Proposition Joe	4.80	+$0.26
2026-03-03	gloucester park	8. Supreme Rhapsody	7.00	+$0.17

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-02	pinjarra	12. Bluto	1.67	$-1.00
2026-03-03	gloucester park	2. Little Bitof Fun	1.02	$-1.00
2026-03-02	pinjarra	2. Tashs Spartan	7.80	$-1.00
2026-03-02	pinjarra	7. Synchronizer	6.40	$-1.00
2026-03-03	gloucester park	8. Elwaddell	3.25	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.