Scott Hill

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 35.3% vs implied 32.5% (+2.8pp). Picks track market expectations.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +1.2% (-18.8% → -17.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +1.0% (-17.6% → -16.7%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

190

Wins

Win Rate

35.3%

Avg Odds

4.55

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-33.47

ROI

-17.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-16.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.5%

Calibration Gap

+2.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	190	$-33.47	-17.6%
Minus best 1 bet	189	$-39.47	-20.9%
Minus best 2 bets	188	$-44.27	-23.5%
Minus best 5 bets	185	$-57.07	-30.8%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-9.2%

Prior 60d ROI

-22.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	43	34.9%	6.52	$-9.16	-21.3%
2026-08	71	36.6%	4.17	$-14.28	-20.1%
2026-09	64	32.8%	3.78	$-7.76	-12.1%
2026-10	12	41.7%	3.89	$-2.27	-18.9%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	28	53.6%	$-1.32	-4.7%
2.0-3.0	60	35.0%	$-10.28	-17.1%
3.0-5.0	53	24.5%	$-12.77	-24.1%
5.0-8.0	31	38.7%	+$2.21	+7.1%
8.0-15	14	35.7%	$-8.37	-59.8%
15+	4	25.0%	$-2.94	-73.5%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	85	41.2%	$-19.52	-23.0%
Rank 2	38	34.2%	$-2.27	-6.0%
Rank 3	26	23.1%	$-13.62	-52.4%
Rank 4-5	24	37.5%	+$6.41	+26.7%
Rank 6+	17	23.5%	$-4.47	-26.3%

Based on 190 of 190 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	27	51.9%	$-2.13	-7.9%
Outside Zone	163	32.5%	$-31.34	-19.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	190	35.3%	$-33.47	-17.6%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
bunbury	6	50.0%	+$3.75	+62.5%
narrogin	5	40.0%	+$1.97	+39.4%
northam	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
pinjarra	57	35.1%	$-7.07	-12.4%
gloucester park	115	36.5%	$-25.12	-21.8%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 28 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-4.76 (-17.0% ROI) on 28 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-28	bunbury	8. Cloud Nine	7.00	+$6.00
2026-07-21	narrogin	10. Local Resident	5.80	+$4.80
2026-09-14	pinjarra	2. Asteri Adelphos	5.60	+$4.60
2026-09-08	gloucester park	3. Big Bozz	5.40	+$4.40
2026-08-03	pinjarra	8. Elquestro	4.80	+$3.80

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-20	gloucester park	5. Kisora	1.49	$-1.00
2026-09-15	gloucester park	1. Strauny	8.60	$-1.00
2026-08-24	pinjarra	6. Justasmooth Miki	3.30	$-1.00
2026-08-14	gloucester park	6. Raklou	2.44	$-1.00
2026-08-21	gloucester park	4. Wicked Hustler	2.34	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.