Scott Hill

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (37 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 24.3% trails market-implied 33.7% by -9.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -25.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw -43.1%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -9.1% (-34.0% → -43.1%) · Shrunk ROI: +1.2% (-27.0% → -25.8%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

24.3%

Avg Odds

7.11

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-15.95

ROI

-43.1%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-25.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

33.7%

Calibration Gap

-9.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	37	$-15.95	-43.1%
Minus best 1 bet	36	$-20.15	-56.0%
Minus best 2 bets	35	$-21.73	-62.1%
Minus best 5 bets	32	$-25.78	-80.6%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	13	30.8%	5.41	$-4.11	-31.6%
2026-07	24	20.8%	8.03	$-11.84	-49.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	5	20.0%	$-2.55	-51.0%
2.0-3.0	11	45.5%	$-0.04	-0.4%
3.0-5.0	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	6	50.0%	+$1.64	+27.3%
8.0-15	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
15+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	19	36.8%	$-5.73	-30.2%
Rank 2	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	4	50.0%	+$3.78	+94.5%
Rank 6+	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%

Based on 37 of 37 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	4	50.0%	$-1.56	-39.0%
Outside Zone	33	21.2%	$-14.39	-43.6%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	37	24.3%	$-15.95	-43.1%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
pinjarra	17	29.4%	$-4.49	-26.4%
gloucester park	20	20.0%	$-11.46	-57.3%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 6 settled, place rate 83.3%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$5.96 (+99.3% ROI) on 6 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-06	pinjarra	7. My Little Big Man	5.20	+$4.20
2026-06-26	gloucester park	2. Manuka Bay	2.58	+$1.58
2026-06-30	gloucester park	2. Full Swing Denario	1.69	+$1.45
2026-06-26	gloucester park	4. Sweet Pins	2.32	+$1.32
2026-07-06	pinjarra	6. Bumrah	2.28	+$1.28

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-13	pinjarra	9. Blameitonthenight	85.00	$-1.00
2026-07-10	gloucester park	12. Maddy Rocks	2.44	$-1.00
2026-06-29	pinjarra	1. Oakley	1.01	$-1.00
2026-07-06	pinjarra	2. Jimmys Rainbow	2.14	$-1.00
2026-07-14	gloucester park	6. Bet Im Hot	1.89	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.