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Mark Mathews
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (22 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 13.6% trails market-implied 27.0% by -13.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -81.2%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+15.6%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -21.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -41.6%.
Bio & context
Mark Mathews is primarily a Tabcorp/Sky Racing race caller based in Adelaide, South Australia, who also provides occasional racing tips published on platforms like The Great Tip Off. He became a full-time race caller in December 2022 after 10 years of calling races part-time while maintaining a corporate career in sales and account management (including roles at Arnott's and Michelin). His tipping appears to be a secondary activity to his main role as a multi-code race caller (gallops, greyhounds, and harness).
Adelaide, South AustraliaRace Caller (Tabcorp/Sky Racing) - occasional tipster12 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Primary role is race caller for Tabcorp/Sky Racing - potential institutional conflict
- Tips South Australian racing where he actively calls races - deep local knowledge but potential for bias toward familiar connections
Methodology: Not publicly disclosed. Tips appear on Sky Racing/The Great Tip Off platform but no detailed methodology information available.
Specialty: South Australian racing - particularly country tracks including Morphettville, Strathalbyn, Mount Gambier, Port Lincoln, Naracoorte
Public footprint
- Twitter: @MarkRaceCalling (joined August 2017, minimal activity)
- Sky Racing broadcaster - calls races across all codes
- Tips published on The Great Tip Off platform (SKY Racing | SA)
- Featured in Country Racing SA interview (May 2023)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -59.1% (+17.5% → -41.6%) · Shrunk ROI: -30.1% (+8.3% → -21.7%) · Verdict: ROI MISLEADING → STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-9.15
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-21.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
27.0%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 22 | $-9.15 | -41.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 21 | $-15.15 | -72.1% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 20 | $-17.55 | -87.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 17 | $-17.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-08 | 9 | 22.2% | 4.67 | +$1.40 | +15.6% |
| 2026-09 | 6 | 0.0% | 3.41 | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-10 | 7 | 14.3% | 4.45 | $-4.55 | -65.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 5 | 20.0% | $-2.55 | -51.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 7 | 14.3% | $-3.60 | -51.4% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 8 | 12.5% | $-1.00 | -12.5% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 8 | 25.0% | $-2.15 | -26.9% |
| Rank 2 | 8 | 12.5% | $-1.00 | -12.5% |
| Rank 3 | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 22 of 22 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 8 | 12.5% | $-1.00 | -12.5% |
| Outside Zone | 14 | 14.3% | $-8.15 | -58.2% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 22 | 13.6% | $-9.15 | -41.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| morphettville | 9 | 22.2% | +$1.40 | +15.6% |
| sportsbet gawler | 7 | 14.3% | $-4.55 | -65.0% |
| strathalbyn | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 7 | 14.3% | $-4.55 | -65.0% |
| Sat | 9 | 22.2% | +$1.40 | +15.6% |
| Sun | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 0.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-08 | morphettville | Regal Ripper | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | morphettville | Justacclaim | 3.40 | +$2.40 |
| 2026-10-05 | sportsbet gawler | The Black Harp | 2.45 | +$1.45 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-08 | morphettville | Dobbinair | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | morphettville | Lingani | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | sportsbet gawler | Thebigsosso | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | sportsbet gawler | Taupo Tiger | 4.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | strathalbyn | Chartin | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.