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Mark Mathews
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-29 05:11 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (56 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 19.6% trails market-implied 28.2% by -8.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -19.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw -24.8%.
Bio & context
Mark Mathews is primarily a Tabcorp/Sky Racing race caller based in Adelaide, South Australia, who also provides occasional racing tips published on platforms like The Great Tip Off. He became a full-time race caller in December 2022 after 10 years of calling races part-time while maintaining a corporate career in sales and account management (including roles at Arnott's and Michelin). His tipping appears to be a secondary activity to his main role as a multi-code race caller (gallops, greyhounds, and harness).
Adelaide, South AustraliaRace Caller (Tabcorp/Sky Racing) - occasional tipster12 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Primary role is race caller for Tabcorp/Sky Racing - potential institutional conflict
- Tips South Australian racing where he actively calls races - deep local knowledge but potential for bias toward familiar connections
Methodology: Not publicly disclosed. Tips appear on Sky Racing/The Great Tip Off platform but no detailed methodology information available.
Specialty: South Australian racing - particularly country tracks including Morphettville, Strathalbyn, Mount Gambier, Port Lincoln, Naracoorte
Public footprint
- Twitter: @MarkRaceCalling (joined August 2017, minimal activity)
- Sky Racing broadcaster - calls races across all codes
- Tips published on The Great Tip Off platform (SKY Racing | SA)
- Featured in Country Racing SA interview (May 2023)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -45.1% (+20.3% → -24.8%) · Shrunk ROI: -29.5% (+10.3% → -19.2%) · Verdict: ROI MISLEADING → STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-13.90
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-19.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
28.2%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 56 | $-13.90 | -24.8% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 55 | $-19.90 | -36.2% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 54 | $-25.90 | -48.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 51 | $-37.10 | -72.7% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 21 | 23.8% | 4.41 | $-0.25 | -1.2% |
| 2026-07 | 26 | 15.4% | 4.76 | $-15.05 | -57.9% |
| 2026-08 | 9 | 22.2% | 4.67 | +$1.40 | +15.6% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 7 | 42.9% | $-2.10 | -30.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 9 | 11.1% | $-6.40 | -71.1% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 18 | 22.2% | $-2.40 | -13.3% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 15 | 20.0% | +$4.00 | +26.7% |
| 8.0-15 | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 24 | 25.0% | $-10.10 | -42.1% |
| Rank 2 | 16 | 18.8% | +$0.40 | +2.5% |
| Rank 3 | 7 | 28.6% | +$4.80 | +68.6% |
| Rank 4-5 | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 56 of 56 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 14 | 21.4% | +$5.00 | +35.7% |
| Outside Zone | 42 | 19.0% | $-18.90 | -45.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 56 | 19.6% | $-13.90 | -24.8% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| port augusta | 7 | 57.1% | +$12.00 | +171.4% |
| morphettville | 17 | 17.6% | $-3.60 | -21.2% |
| morphettville parks | 9 | 11.1% | $-4.20 | -46.7% |
| bordertown | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| thomas farms rc murray bridge | 16 | 18.8% | $-11.10 | -69.4% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 9 | 11.1% | $-6.00 | -66.7% |
| Sat | 33 | 18.2% | $-12.90 | -39.1% |
| Sun | 14 | 28.6% | +$5.00 | +35.7% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 40.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.77 (-15.5% ROI) on 5 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-07 | port augusta | Mckeever | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | morphettville | Regal Ripper | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-06-07 | port augusta | Star Casino | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-07-11 | morphettville parks | Rubare | 4.80 | +$3.80 |
| 2026-06-07 | port augusta | Pierroplane | 4.40 | +$3.40 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-08 | morphettville | Dobbinair | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-11 | morphettville parks | Tahnee Territory | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | morphettville | Lingani | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-08 | morphettville | Fartoo Frisky | 9.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-08 | morphettville | Tottori | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-08-29 05:11 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.