Gaurav Khosla

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (54 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 27.8% trails market-implied 33.7% by -6.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -5.6%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-47.7%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -18.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw -22.8%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -2.1% (-20.7% → -22.8%) · Shrunk ROI: -0.8% (-17.3% → -18.1%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

27.8%

Avg Odds

3.38

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-12.30

ROI

-22.8%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-18.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

33.7%

Calibration Gap

-6.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	54	$-12.30	-22.8%
Minus best 1 bet	53	$-16.80	-31.7%
Minus best 2 bets	52	$-20.20	-38.8%
Minus best 5 bets	49	$-27.00	-55.1%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-5.6%

Prior 60d ROI

-47.7%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	4	25.0%	3.58	$-2.15	-53.8%
2026-05	13	30.8%	3.04	$-3.35	-25.8%
2026-06	18	33.3%	3.41	+$2.70	+15.0%
2026-07	19	21.1%	3.54	$-9.50	-50.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	7	57.1%	+$0.15	+2.1%
2.0-3.0	19	36.8%	$-1.25	-6.6%
3.0-5.0	21	14.3%	$-9.70	-46.2%
5.0-8.0	7	14.3%	$-1.50	-21.4%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	23	39.1%	$-2.65	-11.5%
Rank 2	8	25.0%	$-0.30	-3.8%
Rank 3	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	3	33.3%	+$2.50	+83.3%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 40 of 54 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	37	32.4%	$-3.45	-9.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	54	27.8%	$-12.30	-22.8%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
tennant creek	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
darwin	49	30.6%	$-7.30	-14.9%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Wed	5	20.0%	$-2.85	-57.0%
Fri	4	25.0%	$-2.15	-53.8%
Sat	45	28.9%	$-7.30	-16.2%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 60.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.37 (+7.4% ROI) on 5 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-13	darwin	Barocco Bar	5.50	+$4.50
2026-06-20	darwin	The Albion	4.40	+$3.40
2026-05-09	darwin	Field Of Flutes	3.60	+$2.60
2026-06-20	darwin	Montjuic Magic	3.30	+$2.30
2026-07-11	darwin	Luna Field	2.90	+$1.90

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-13	darwin	Jumping Power Two	2.80	$-1.00
2026-05-16	tennant creek	Miss Boom	1.85	$-1.00
2026-04-24	darwin	Self Serve	2.45	$-1.00
2026-06-06	darwin	Kissing Supido	4.20	$-1.00
2026-06-06	darwin	Anecdotal	4.60	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.