Gaurav Khosla

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 24.3% trails market-implied 32.7% by -8.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -57.8%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-35.1%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -29.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -41.3%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -10.0% (-31.3% → -41.3%) · Shrunk ROI: -3.4% (-26.1% → -29.5%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

24.3%

Avg Odds

3.74

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-28.89

ROI

-41.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-29.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.7%

Calibration Gap

-8.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	70	$-28.89	-41.3%
Minus best 1 bet	69	$-32.29	-46.8%
Minus best 2 bets	68	$-35.49	-52.2%
Minus best 5 bets	65	$-40.69	-62.6%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-57.8%

Prior 60d ROI

-35.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	26	34.6%	3.42	$-4.40	-16.9%
2026-08	25	16.0%	3.70	$-13.50	-54.0%
2026-09	14	28.6%	3.58	$-5.99	-42.8%
2026-10	5	0.0%	6.04	$-5.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	7	71.4%	+$1.56	+22.3%
2.0-3.0	23	43.5%	+$0.95	+4.1%
3.0-5.0	25	8.0%	$-16.40	-65.6%
5.0-8.0	12	0.0%	$-12.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	35	42.9%	$-2.49	-7.1%
Rank 2	17	0.0%	$-17.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	9	22.2%	$-0.40	-4.4%
Rank 4-5	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 70 of 70 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	64	26.6%	$-22.89	-35.8%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	70	24.3%	$-28.89	-41.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
katherine	7	14.3%	$-4.80	-68.6%
darwin	63	25.4%	$-24.09	-38.2%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
Wed	5	40.0%	$-1.10	-22.0%
Fri	6	16.7%	$-4.05	-67.5%
Sat	53	26.4%	$-17.74	-33.5%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 6 settled, place rate 33.3%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.40 (-39.9% ROI) on 6 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-01	darwin	Shisuta Bo	4.40	+$3.40
2026-07-25	darwin	Zourata	4.20	+$3.20
2026-07-11	darwin	Luna Field	2.90	+$1.90
2026-09-05	darwin	Order Online	2.70	+$1.70
2026-08-01	darwin	Texture	2.60	+$1.60

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-03	darwin	Auxiliary	3.20	$-1.00
2026-08-03	darwin	Bollon	3.50	$-1.00
2026-08-15	katherine	I Loverain	2.90	$-1.00
2026-08-03	darwin	Lucky Fortuna	3.50	$-1.00
2026-09-25	darwin	Predicting	4.40	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.