← Back to dashboard
Sky Racing - Gary Kliese
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 31.3% trails market-implied 39.6% by -8.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-7.09
Implied Win % (1/odds)
39.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 67 | $-7.09 | -10.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 66 | $-15.49 | -23.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 65 | $-19.69 | -30.3% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 62 | $-27.49 | -44.3% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 40 | 37.5% | 3.01 | $-1.63 | -4.1% |
| 2026-05 | 27 | 22.2% | 4.11 | $-5.46 | -20.2% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 15 | 40.0% | $-5.13 | -34.2% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 22 | 45.5% | +$2.64 | +12.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 16 | 18.8% | $-5.20 | -32.5% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 12 | 8.3% | $-6.80 | -56.7% |
| 8.0-15 | 2 | 50.0% | +$7.40 | +370.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 6 | 50.0% | +$0.94 | +15.7% |
| Rank 2 | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 100.0% | +$8.40 | +840.0% |
Based on 17 of 67 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 15 | 26.7% | +$1.34 | +8.9% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 67 | 31.3% | $-7.09 | -10.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| port macquarie | 16 | 37.5% | +$6.00 | +37.5% |
| ballina | 6 | 50.0% | +$1.53 | +25.5% |
| taree | 8 | 37.5% | $-1.20 | -15.0% |
| grafton | 14 | 28.6% | $-3.67 | -26.2% |
| coffs harbour | 15 | 26.7% | $-4.53 | -30.2% |
| inverell | 8 | 12.5% | $-5.22 | -65.2% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 9 | 33.3% | +$4.56 | +50.7% |
| Tue | 14 | 35.7% | $-2.56 | -18.3% |
| Thu | 8 | 37.5% | $-1.20 | -15.0% |
| Fri | 23 | 21.7% | $-9.75 | -42.4% |
| Sun | 13 | 38.5% | +$1.86 | +14.3% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 0.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 2 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-18 | port macquarie | Yorikiri | 9.40 | +$8.40 |
| 2026-04-18 | grafton | Yukanuma | 5.20 | +$4.20 |
| 2026-04-14 | ballina | Geegee Jet By | 3.80 | +$2.80 |
| 2026-04-24 | coffs harbour | Whatsthetimemrwolf | 3.60 | +$2.60 |
| 2026-04-25 | port macquarie | Savvyrocker | 3.40 | +$2.40 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-07 | coffs harbour | Redadel | 4.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | port macquarie | Diva Rouge | 3.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | inverell | Pride To Follow | 1.65 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-09 | taree | Savvyrocker | 4.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | inverell | Satin And Cash | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.