Sky Racing - Gary Kliese

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 32.4% trails market-implied 37.1% by -4.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +10.4%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-9.1%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -4.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw -0.5%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +7.9% (-8.4% → -0.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +4.9% (-9.4% → -4.6%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

105

Wins

Win Rate

32.4%

Avg Odds

3.46

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-0.57

ROI

-0.5%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-4.6%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

37.1%

Calibration Gap

-4.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	105	$-0.57	-0.5%
Minus best 1 bet	104	$-8.97	-8.6%
Minus best 2 bets	103	$-14.57	-14.1%
Minus best 5 bets	100	$-25.67	-25.7%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+10.4%

Prior 60d ROI

-9.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	18	38.9%	2.85	+$2.13	+11.8%
2026-05	27	22.2%	4.11	$-5.46	-20.2%
2026-06	48	33.3%	3.21	+$1.74	+3.6%
2026-07	12	41.7%	3.97	+$1.02	+8.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	19	36.8%	$-6.78	-35.7%
2.0-3.0	35	40.0%	+$0.46	+1.3%
3.0-5.0	31	29.0%	$-0.55	-1.8%
5.0-8.0	16	18.8%	+$0.90	+5.6%
8.0-15	4	25.0%	+$5.40	+135.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	45	40.0%	$-0.09	-0.2%
Rank 2	17	11.8%	$-10.63	-62.5%
Rank 3	6	33.3%	+$0.72	+12.0%
Rank 4-5	5	40.0%	+$6.70	+134.0%
Rank 6+	4	25.0%	+$5.40	+135.0%

Based on 77 of 105 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	73	34.2%	+$6.10	+8.4%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	105	32.4%	$-0.57	-0.5%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
port macquarie	23	43.5%	+$9.90	+43.0%
grafton	18	38.9%	+$1.44	+8.0%
taree	7	28.6%	+$1.43	+20.4%
ballina	8	37.5%	$-1.25	-15.6%
casino	5	20.0%	$-1.90	-38.0%
coffs harbour	29	31.0%	$-3.07	-10.6%
inverell	15	13.3%	$-7.12	-47.5%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	9	33.3%	+$4.56	+50.7%
Wed	7	14.3%	$-3.45	-49.3%
Thu	5	20.0%	$-1.90	-38.0%
Fri	37	21.6%	$-10.22	-27.6%
Sun	47	44.7%	+$10.44	+22.2%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 10 settled, place rate 60.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.71 (-7.1% ROI) on 10 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-18	port macquarie	Yorikiri	9.40	+$8.40
2026-06-05	taree	Mosgiel Daisy	6.60	+$5.60
2026-04-18	grafton	Yukanuma	5.20	+$4.20
2026-06-18	inverell	Soobooco	5.10	+$4.10
2026-06-27	coffs harbour	Golden Copper	3.80	+$2.80

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-07	coffs harbour	Redadel	4.70	$-1.00
2026-05-18	port macquarie	Diva Rouge	3.00	$-1.00
2026-06-18	inverell	Zou Big Boy	2.96	$-1.00
2026-05-22	inverell	Pride To Follow	1.65	$-1.00
2026-06-25	casino	Navy Kiss	1.66	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.