Sky Racing - Dan Mielicki

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (18 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 33.3% trails market-implied 41.6% by -8.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -18.9% — a more honest expectation than the raw -35.1%.

Since last weekly snapshot: +1 new bets · ROI: -3.8% (-31.3% → -35.1%) · Shrunk ROI: -1.2% (-17.6% → -18.9%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

33.3%

Avg Odds

3.12

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-6.32

ROI

-35.1%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-18.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

41.6%

Calibration Gap

-8.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	18	$-6.32	-35.1%
Minus best 1 bet	17	$-8.06	-47.4%
Minus best 2 bets	16	$-9.26	-57.9%
Minus best 5 bets	13	$-11.75	-90.4%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-05	8	12.5%	2.94	$-5.80	-72.5%
2026-06	9	55.6%	3.48	+$0.48	+5.3%
2026-07	1	0.0%	1.42	$-1.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	7	42.9%	$-2.46	-35.1%
2.0-3.0	4	75.0%	+$3.14	+78.5%
3.0-5.0	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	5	80.0%	+$2.71	+54.2%
Rank 3	2	50.0%	$-0.23	-11.5%
Rank 4-5	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 10 of 18 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	10	50.0%	$-0.52	-5.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	18	33.3%	$-6.32	-35.1%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
geelong	9	55.6%	+$0.48	+5.3%
melton	9	11.1%	$-6.80	-75.6%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Fri	17	35.3%	$-5.32	-31.3%
Sat	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.64 (+164.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-05	geelong	Ifyoulovemeletmego	2.74	+$1.74
2026-06-05	geelong	Shezalover	2.20	+$1.20
2026-05-01	melton	Our Bella Lucia	2.20	+$1.20
2026-06-05	geelong	Remembrance Time	1.77	+$0.77
2026-06-05	geelong	Bond Girl	1.52	+$0.52

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-05	geelong	Sweetheart Dior	3.95	$-1.00
2026-06-05	geelong	Woodlea Diego	6.80	$-1.00
2026-05-01	melton	Hurrikane Dusty	5.00	$-1.00
2026-06-05	geelong	Swaywithsierra	5.20	$-1.00
2026-05-01	melton	Captains Rush	4.10	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.