Joel Marshall

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (11 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 9.1% trails market-implied 17.3% by -8.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -24.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw -77.3%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -21.6% (-55.6% → -77.3%) · Shrunk ROI: +1.8% (-26.4% → -24.6%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

9.1%

Avg Odds

14.63

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-8.50

ROI

-77.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-24.6%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

17.3%

Calibration Gap

-8.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	11	$-8.50	-77.3%
Minus best 1 bet	10	$-10.00	-100.0%
Minus best 2 bets	9	$-9.00	-100.0%
Minus best 5 bets	6	$-6.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	4	0.0%	18.88	$-4.00	-100.0%
2026-06	5	20.0%	15.60	$-2.50	-50.0%
2026-07	2	0.0%	3.73	$-2.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	3	33.3%	$-0.50	-16.7%
5.0-8.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
15+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	3	33.3%	$-0.50	-16.7%
Rank 6+	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

Based on 7 of 11 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	6	16.7%	$-3.50	-58.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	11	9.1%	$-8.50	-77.3%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.38 (+37.5% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-19	belmont	Awesome Boy	2.50	+$1.50

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-24	morphettville	Lawborough	46.00	$-1.00
2026-06-12	belmont	Our Paladin Al	12.00	$-1.00
2026-04-24	ascot	Pond Master	13.00	$-1.00
2026-07-03	murray bridge	Word Game	2.45	$-1.00
2026-04-24	ascot	Crunchy Nut	7.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.