Joel Marshall

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (8 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 12.5% trails market-implied 18.3% by -5.8pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

12.5%

Avg Odds

12.78

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-5.70

ROI

-71.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

18.3%

Calibration Gap

-5.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	1	0.0%	2.90	$-1.00	-100.0%
2026-04	7	14.3%	14.19	$-4.70	-67.1%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	2	50.0%	+$0.30	+15.0%
3.0-5.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
15+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	8	12.5%	$-5.70	-71.2%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-10	caulfield	Gold Coast Belle	2.30	+$1.30

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-24	morphettville	Lawborough	46.00	$-1.00
2026-04-24	ascot	Pond Master	13.00	$-1.00
2026-04-24	ascot	Crunchy Nut	7.00	$-1.00
2026-04-04	randwick	Headley Grange	18.00	$-1.00
2026-04-04	randwick	Soverato	3.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.