Mitch Lewis

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-18 22:27 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 30.7% vs implied 32.0% (-1.3pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -51.4%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-7.1%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -18.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -21.7%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -15.8% (-5.9% → -21.7%) · Shrunk ROI: -10.3% (-8.2% → -18.5%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

30.7%

Avg Odds

4.52

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-19.09

ROI

-21.7%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-18.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.0%

Calibration Gap

-1.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	88	$-19.09	-21.7%
Minus best 1 bet	87	$-23.19	-26.7%
Minus best 2 bets	86	$-25.89	-30.1%
Minus best 5 bets	83	$-33.29	-40.1%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-51.4%

Prior 60d ROI

-7.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	19	31.6%	4.50	$-4.08	-21.5%
2026-08	27	40.7%	3.31	+$2.60	+9.6%
2026-09	23	26.1%	6.53	$-8.56	-37.2%
2026-10	19	21.1%	3.81	$-9.05	-47.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	10	50.0%	$-2.12	-21.2%
2.0-3.0	31	41.9%	+$2.01	+6.5%
3.0-5.0	27	25.9%	$-5.29	-19.6%
5.0-8.0	13	15.4%	$-6.69	-51.5%
8.0-15	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
15+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	43	34.9%	$-5.48	-12.7%
Rank 2	14	35.7%	$-0.02	-0.1%
Rank 3	8	12.5%	$-6.94	-86.8%
Rank 4-5	11	18.2%	$-6.61	-60.1%
Rank 6+	7	14.3%	$-1.90	-27.1%

Based on 83 of 88 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	11	9.1%	$-9.79	-89.0%
Outside Zone	72	31.9%	$-11.16	-15.5%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	88	30.7%	$-19.09	-21.7%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
canterbury	13	53.8%	+$5.69	+43.8%
warwick farm	5	40.0%	+$0.15	+3.0%
rosehill	21	23.8%	$-9.91	-47.2%
randwick	35	25.7%	$-11.35	-32.4%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 16 settled, place rate 56.2%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.94 (+5.9% ROI) on 16 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-23	randwick	3. Scintillation	5.10	+$4.10
2026-10-17	randwick	8. Unleeshing	3.70	+$2.70
2026-08-26	canterbury	1. Ruination	3.60	+$2.60
2026-08-19	warwick farm	9. Fierce	3.60	+$2.60
2026-07-31	scone	6. Ocean Tsunami	3.20	+$2.20

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-10-17	horsham	4. Aftermath	3.60	$-1.00
2026-10-06	randwick	2. Scenic Point	2.72	$-1.00
2026-10-17	randwick	1. Beiwacht	3.05	$-1.00
2026-10-14	rosehill	6. Puntin	3.65	$-1.00
2026-08-29	rosehill	2. Mr Miller	1.99	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-18 22:27 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.