Mitch Lewis

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (17 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 41.2% beats market-implied 24.3% by +16.9pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 226% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -33.1% on 15 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -3.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw +23.1%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +31.3% (-8.2% → +23.1%) · Shrunk ROI: +6.2% (-10.0% → -3.8%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

41.2%

Avg Odds

5.07

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$3.93

ROI

+23.1%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-3.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

24.3%

Calibration Gap

+16.9pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	17	+$3.93	+23.1%
Minus best 1 bet	16	$-1.07	-6.7%
Minus best 2 bets	15	$-4.97	-33.1%
Minus best 5 bets	12	$-9.80	-81.7%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	5	40.0%	6.90	+$2.08	+41.6%
2026-07	12	41.7%	4.30	+$1.85	+15.4%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	4	25.0%	$-1.44	-36.0%
3.0-5.0	8	37.5%	+$2.17	+27.1%
5.0-8.0	2	50.0%	+$4.00	+200.0%
8.0-15	3	66.7%	$-0.80	-26.7%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	7	28.6%	$-0.73	-10.4%
Rank 2	5	60.0%	+$6.02	+120.4%
Rank 3	2	50.0%	+$0.56	+28.0%
Rank 4-5	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	100.0%	+$0.08	+8.0%

Based on 17 of 17 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	3	66.7%	+$4.12	+137.3%
Outside Zone	14	35.7%	$-0.19	-1.4%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	17	41.2%	+$3.93	+23.1%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
randwick	6	50.0%	+$3.92	+65.3%
rosehill	5	40.0%	$-2.55	-51.0%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 7 settled, place rate 42.9%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.80 (-40.0% ROI) on 7 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-24	warwick farm	6. Mrs Maree	6.00	+$5.00
2026-07-10	randwick	3. Perfect Justice	4.90	+$3.90
2026-07-01	randwick	1. Huon	3.90	+$2.90
2026-07-01	hawkesbury	2. Funshow	2.56	+$1.56
2026-07-03	rosehill	5. Island Dec	3.70	+$0.37

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-26	rosehill	6. All The Way Mae	2.40	$-1.00
2026-06-24	warwick farm	13. Airworthy	4.90	$-1.00
2026-07-11	randwick	4. Prima Bella	4.10	$-1.00
2026-07-01	hawkesbury	6. Seven Days	3.75	$-1.00
2026-07-11	randwick	2. Lugh	4.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.