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Mitch Lewis
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (4 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 50.0% beats market-implied 36.0% by +14.0pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 227% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -100.0% on 2 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$1.57
Implied Win % (1/odds)
36.0%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 4 | 50.0% | 2.82 | +$1.57 | +39.2% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 3 | 33.3% | $-0.68 | -22.7% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 1 | 100.0% | +$2.25 | +225.0% |
By pre-race rank
No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
No rank data yet.
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| hub_playwright | 4 | 50.0% | +$1.57 | +39.2% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
(no day-of-week data)
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-04 | grafton | 5. Poseidons Son | 3.25 | +$2.25 |
| 2026-03-02 | kembla grange | 4. Shangri La Impact | 2.32 | +$1.32 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-04 | | 1. Spirit Of Camelot | 2.74 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-04 | grafton | 1. Jade Trees | 2.96 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.