Mitch Lewis

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-03 05:21 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Calibration is positive: actual win rate 41.4% beats market-implied 31.8% by +9.6pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 88% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of +1.8% on 68 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +3.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw +14.8%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +15.1% (-0.3% → +14.8%) · Shrunk ROI: +8.4% (-5.2% → +3.2%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

41.4%

Avg Odds

4.05

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$10.34

ROI

+14.8%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+3.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

31.8%

Calibration Gap

+9.6pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	70	+$10.34	+14.8%
Minus best 1 bet	69	+$5.34	+7.7%
Minus best 2 bets	68	+$1.24	+1.8%
Minus best 5 bets	65	$-8.21	-12.6%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+10.7%

Prior 60d ROI

+17.2%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	5	40.0%	6.90	+$2.08	+41.6%
2026-07	37	40.5%	4.26	+$4.34	+11.7%
2026-08	27	40.7%	3.31	+$2.60	+9.6%
2026-09	1	100.0%	2.32	+$1.32	+132.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	8	50.0%	$-1.76	-22.0%
2.0-3.0	23	43.5%	+$3.22	+14.0%
3.0-5.0	26	38.5%	+$7.37	+28.3%
5.0-8.0	6	50.0%	+$6.31	+105.2%
8.0-15	6	33.3%	$-3.80	-63.3%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	34	38.2%	+$1.25	+3.7%
Rank 2	12	58.3%	+$10.03	+83.6%
Rank 3	4	50.0%	$-0.38	-9.5%
Rank 4-5	10	20.0%	$-5.61	-56.1%
Rank 6+	7	28.6%	$-0.82	-11.7%

Based on 67 of 70 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	5	60.0%	+$3.33	+66.6%
Outside Zone	62	37.1%	+$1.14	+1.8%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	70	41.4%	+$10.34	+14.8%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
warwick farm	8	50.0%	+$6.15	+76.9%
canterbury	11	54.5%	+$4.54	+41.3%
rosehill	13	46.2%	$-0.59	-4.5%
randwick	20	30.0%	$-1.22	-6.1%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 18 settled, place rate 55.6%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-3.46 (-19.2% ROI) on 18 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-24	warwick farm	6. Mrs Maree	6.00	+$5.00
2026-07-23	randwick	3. Scintillation	5.10	+$4.10
2026-07-10	randwick	3. Perfect Justice	4.90	+$3.90
2026-07-01	randwick	1. Huon	3.90	+$2.90
2026-07-16		4. Lets Go Again	3.65	+$2.65

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-29	rosehill	2. Mr Miller	1.99	$-1.00
2026-06-26	rosehill	6. All The Way Mae	2.40	$-1.00
2026-08-20	randwick	3. Le Troisir	3.90	$-1.00
2026-08-07	randwick	5. Lets Go Again	8.80	$-1.00
2026-08-29	rosehill	2. Grand Impact	1.74	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-03 05:21 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.