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Paul Richards
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (4 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 25.0% beats market-implied 17.5% by +7.5pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 167% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -100.0% on 2 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -6.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw +75.0%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +81.8% (-6.8% → +75.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +5.4% (-11.9% → -6.5%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$3.00
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-6.5%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
17.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 2 | 50.0% | 5.00 | +$5.00 | +250.0% |
| 2026-07 | 2 | 0.0% | 9.25 | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 3.0-5.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 2 | 50.0% | +$5.00 | +250.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 4-5 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 2 of 4 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 4 | 25.0% | +$3.00 | +75.0% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
(no day-of-week data)
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-24 | morphettville | Grand Larceny | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-10 | caulfield | Miss Lola | 7.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | morphettville | Blindedbythelight | 3.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-11 | caulfield | Snoopy Now | 11.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.