Paul Richards

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (6 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 16.7% trails market-implied 24.5% by -7.8pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. 500% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -100.0% on 4 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

16.7%

Avg Odds

5.22

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$1.00

ROI

+16.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

24.5%

Calibration Gap

-7.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	2	0.0%	6.20	$-2.00	-100.0%
2026-04	4	25.0%	4.72	+$3.00	+75.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	2	50.0%	+$5.00	+250.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	6	16.7%	+$1.00	+16.7%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-24	morphettville	Grand Larceny	7.00	+$6.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-24	morphettville	Blindedbythelight	3.00	$-1.00
2026-03-27	flemington	Apulia	10.00	$-1.00
2026-03-27	flemington	Litzdeel	2.40	$-1.00
2026-04-11		Burma Star	5.50	$-1.00
2026-04-10	caulfield	Amazake	3.40	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.