Michael Tye

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (13 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 76.9% beats market-implied 42.6% by +34.3pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 98% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of +0.5% on 11 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

76.9%

Avg Odds

3.49

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$2.91

ROI

+22.4%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

42.6%

Calibration Gap

+34.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	13	+$2.91	+22.4%
Minus best 1 bet	12	+$1.03	+8.6%
Minus best 2 bets	11	+$0.06	+0.5%
Minus best 5 bets	8	$-1.71	-21.4%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	13	76.9%	3.49	+$2.91	+22.4%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	6	83.3%	+$1.81	+30.2%
2.0-3.0	2	100.0%	+$2.41	+120.5%
3.0-5.0	3	33.3%	$-1.56	-52.0%
5.0-8.0	1	100.0%	+$0.15	+15.0%
8.0-15	1	100.0%	+$0.10	+10.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	13	76.9%	+$2.91	+22.4%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-04	2. White Crest	2.72	+$1.88
2026-03-04	2. Extravaganza	1.97	+$0.97
2026-03-02	1. Tribeca	1.72	+$0.72
2026-03-04	6. Prison Break	2.90	+$0.53
2026-03-05	8. Exequiel	1.52	+$0.52

Biggest losses

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-04	1. Dazzling Dynamo	3.45	$-1.00
2026-03-02	4. Mother Georgia	1.97	$-1.00
2026-03-02	4. Sharapova Star	4.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.