Michael Tye

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (34 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 44.1% beats market-implied 36.5% by +7.7pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -18.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw -26.9%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -18.0% (-8.8% → -26.9%) · Shrunk ROI: -8.8% (-9.8% → -18.6%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

44.1%

Avg Odds

4.20

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-9.13

ROI

-26.9%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-18.6%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

36.5%

Calibration Gap

+7.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	34	$-9.13	-26.9%
Minus best 1 bet	33	$-11.28	-34.2%
Minus best 2 bets	32	$-12.64	-39.5%
Minus best 5 bets	29	$-15.51	-53.5%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	12	33.3%	4.58	$-4.54	-37.8%
2026-07	22	50.0%	3.99	$-4.59	-20.9%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	9	88.9%	+$4.00	+44.4%
2.0-3.0	7	28.6%	$-2.97	-42.4%
3.0-5.0	10	20.0%	$-5.49	-54.9%
5.0-8.0	3	33.3%	$-1.85	-61.7%
8.0-15	5	40.0%	$-2.82	-56.4%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	14	78.6%	+$4.39	+31.4%
Rank 2	11	18.2%	$-6.70	-60.9%
Rank 3	6	16.7%	$-4.89	-81.5%
Rank 4-5	2	50.0%	$-0.93	-46.5%

Based on 33 of 34 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	6	33.3%	$-3.74	-62.3%
Outside Zone	27	48.1%	$-4.39	-16.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	34	44.1%	$-9.13	-26.9%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 6 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$3.92 (+65.3% ROI) on 6 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-01	4. Blink And Miss	3.15	+$2.15
2026-06-26	2. Paw Vada	2.36	+$1.36
2026-06-25	8. Mepunga Turbo	1.93	+$1.08
2026-07-13	6. Breach	1.92	+$0.92
2026-06-29	1. Refuted	1.87	+$0.87

Biggest losses

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-13	4. Cris Tessa	3.25	$-1.00
2026-06-24	1. Wyong Houston	2.34	$-1.00
2026-06-29	8. Aston Teresa	3.35	$-1.00
2026-06-25	8. Mepunga Phantom	6.40	$-1.00
2026-07-06	8. Tribal Advisor	2.28	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.