Michael Tye

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is positive: actual win rate 46.9% beats market-implied 40.7% by +6.3pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds.

Since last weekly snapshot: +17 new bets · ROI: +0.4% (-18.3% → -18.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +0.3% (-17.6% → -17.3%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

311

Wins

146

Win Rate

46.9%

Avg Odds

5.16

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-55.94

ROI

-18.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-17.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

40.7%

Calibration Gap

+6.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	311	$-55.94	-18.0%
Minus best 1 bet	310	$-66.44	-21.4%
Minus best 2 bets	309	$-69.19	-22.4%
Minus best 5 bets	306	$-76.19	-24.9%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-25.8%

Prior 60d ROI

-13.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	48	58.3%	3.25	+$8.56	+17.8%
2026-08	116	45.7%	7.44	$-30.60	-26.4%
2026-09	115	46.1%	3.99	$-25.66	-22.3%
2026-10	32	37.5%	3.90	$-8.24	-25.8%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	106	58.5%	$-9.62	-9.1%
2.0-3.0	75	45.3%	+$1.13	+1.5%
3.0-5.0	70	34.3%	$-28.05	-40.1%
5.0-8.0	33	51.5%	$-12.63	-38.3%
8.0-15	22	31.8%	$-3.77	-17.1%
15+	5	40.0%	$-3.00	-60.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	190	52.1%	$-26.73	-14.1%
Rank 2	63	50.8%	$-2.35	-3.7%
Rank 3	21	28.6%	$-13.70	-65.2%
Rank 4-5	19	21.1%	$-1.86	-9.8%
Rank 6+	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%

Based on 300 of 311 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	34	64.7%	$-8.32	-24.5%
Outside Zone	266	44.7%	$-43.32	-16.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	309	47.2%	$-53.94	-17.5%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Fri	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 37 settled, place rate 59.5%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.37 (-6.4% ROI) on 37 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-25	8. Paw Vada	11.50	+$10.50
2026-08-29	6. Mepunga Willow	3.75	+$2.75
2026-09-14	5. Point Break	3.55	+$2.55
2026-08-29	2. Miss Envy	3.30	+$2.30
2026-07-30	5. Indy Melmen	3.15	+$2.15

Biggest losses

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-11	7. Bohdan	2.36	$-1.00
2026-08-13	6. Wrongly Accused	2.72	$-1.00
2026-07-13	4. Cris Tessa	3.25	$-1.00
2026-07-22	1. Lush Hour	1.29	$-1.00
2026-10-08	8. Whiskey Whiskers	4.10	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.