Will Norman

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (28 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 46.4% beats market-implied 30.9% by +15.5pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -19.4% (+2.0% → -17.4%) · Shrunk ROI: -10.2% (-4.3% → -14.6%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

46.4%

Avg Odds

4.29

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-4.86

ROI

-17.4%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-14.6%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

30.9%

Calibration Gap

+15.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	28	$-4.86	-17.4%
Minus best 1 bet	27	$-7.21	-26.7%
Minus best 2 bets	26	$-8.85	-34.0%
Minus best 5 bets	23	$-13.05	-56.7%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	9	77.8%	4.11	+$4.81	+53.4%
2026-07	19	31.6%	4.37	$-9.67	-50.9%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	4	25.0%	$-2.33	-58.2%
2.0-3.0	8	50.0%	+$1.84	+23.0%
3.0-5.0	7	28.6%	$-2.30	-32.9%
5.0-8.0	5	40.0%	$-2.58	-51.6%
8.0-15	4	100.0%	+$0.51	+12.8%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	16	56.2%	$-1.04	-6.5%
Rank 2	4	25.0%	$-2.86	-71.5%
Rank 4-5	4	25.0%	$-1.42	-35.5%
Rank 6+	1	100.0%	+$2.35	+235.0%

Based on 25 of 28 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	7	71.4%	$-1.18	-16.9%
Outside Zone	18	38.9%	$-1.79	-9.9%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	28	46.4%	$-4.86	-17.4%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
newcastle	5	40.0%	$-1.28	-25.6%
menangle	19	47.4%	$-4.04	-21.3%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 10 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.31 (-13.1% ROI) on 10 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-27		8. Nocturnal	3.35	+$2.35
2026-07-14	menangle	8. Go Without	2.64	+$1.64
2026-06-26	newcastle	9. Radiant Amber	2.58	+$1.58
2026-06-27	menangle	8. No Notthebuttons	2.50	+$1.50
2026-07-04	menangle	6. Huta	2.12	+$1.12

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-11		10. Vincenzo	4.10	$-1.00
2026-07-11	menangle	6. Grosso Naso	2.94	$-1.00
2026-07-03	newcastle	3. Petes Crunch Time	2.56	$-1.00
2026-07-14	menangle	1. Captain Ameliah	1.97	$-1.00
2026-07-07	menangle	6. Louise Luck	7.60	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.