Will Norman

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Calibration is positive: actual win rate 48.2% beats market-implied 33.0% by +15.2pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 746% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -8.6% on 218 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots.

Since last weekly snapshot: +14 new bets · ROI: +1.1% (+0.2% → +1.3%) · Shrunk ROI: +1.1% (-2.4% → -1.3%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

220

Wins

106

Win Rate

48.2%

Avg Odds

6.30

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$2.91

ROI

+1.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-1.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

33.0%

Calibration Gap

+15.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	220	+$2.91	+1.3%
Minus best 1 bet	219	$-11.59	-5.3%
Minus best 2 bets	218	$-18.79	-8.6%
Minus best 5 bets	215	$-35.99	-16.7%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+3.9%

Prior 60d ROI

-1.2%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	21	33.3%	6.11	$-10.11	-48.1%
2026-08	65	46.2%	5.04	+$7.88	+12.1%
2026-09	100	53.0%	7.45	+$2.14	+2.1%
2026-10	34	47.1%	5.45	+$3.00	+8.8%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	55	58.2%	$-4.37	-7.9%
2.0-3.0	37	40.5%	$-3.05	-8.2%
3.0-5.0	50	34.0%	$-1.38	-2.8%
5.0-8.0	30	43.3%	$-0.47	-1.6%
8.0-15	35	60.0%	+$2.25	+6.4%
15+	13	61.5%	+$9.93	+76.4%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	99	52.5%	$-14.30	-14.4%
Rank 2	44	50.0%	+$1.57	+3.6%
Rank 3	25	36.0%	$-6.46	-25.8%
Rank 4-5	28	53.6%	+$16.99	+60.7%
Rank 6+	17	35.3%	+$6.18	+36.4%

Based on 213 of 220 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	46	60.9%	$-4.19	-9.1%
Outside Zone	167	45.5%	+$8.17	+4.9%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	220	48.2%	+$2.91	+1.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
menangle	59	59.3%	+$15.22	+25.8%
penrith	69	50.7%	+$12.69	+18.4%
tamworth	7	28.6%	$-3.03	-43.3%
newcastle	70	38.6%	$-17.72	-25.3%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 52 settled, place rate 48.1%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-6.43 (-12.4% ROI) on 52 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-22	menangle	2. Bluto	15.50	+$14.50
2026-09-25	newcastle	6. Metallica Man	8.20	+$7.20
2026-08-13	penrith	8. Ultimate Equus	8.00	+$7.00
2026-09-04	newcastle	10. D J Rock	6.20	+$5.20
2026-10-08	penrith	1. Bev The Goat	6.00	+$5.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-10-08	penrith	7. Charlenes Delight	2.44	$-1.00
2026-08-01	menangle	6. Ronzel Sonny	5.60	$-1.00
2026-10-02	newcastle	1. Loyal Lou	1.83	$-1.00
2026-07-11		10. Vincenzo	4.10	$-1.00
2026-08-21	newcastle	9. San Sebastian	3.30	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.