Josh Jenkins

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (8 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 12.5% trails market-implied 19.2% by -6.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

12.5%

Avg Odds

9.16

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-5.30

ROI

-66.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

19.2%

Calibration Gap

-6.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	4	25.0%	4.56	$-1.30	-32.5%
2026-04	4	0.0%	13.75	$-4.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	2	50.0%	+$0.70	+35.0%
3.0-5.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	8	12.5%	$-5.30	-66.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
randwick	5	20.0%	$-2.30	-46.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	8	12.5%	$-5.30	-66.2%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-06	randwick	Beadman	2.70	+$1.70

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-17	randwick	Zambales	14.00	$-1.00
2026-03-06	randwick	Attica	9.50	$-1.00
2026-04-17	randwick	Pericles	10.00	$-1.00
2026-03-06	flemington	Sea What I See	4.00	$-1.00
2026-03-06	flemington	Tentyris	2.05	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.