Lachlan Stace

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 15.0% trails market-implied 28.5% by -13.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -35.8%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-51.9%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -29.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw -43.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +3.1% (-46.1% → -43.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +3.9% (-33.3% → -29.4%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

15.0%

Avg Odds

4.12

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-25.80

ROI

-43.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-29.4%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

28.5%

Calibration Gap

-13.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	60	$-25.80	-43.0%
Minus best 1 bet	59	$-32.80	-55.6%
Minus best 2 bets	58	$-35.70	-61.6%
Minus best 5 bets	55	$-43.40	-78.9%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-35.8%

Prior 60d ROI

-51.9%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	20	15.0%	3.47	$-9.70	-48.5%
2026-08	26	11.5%	4.34	$-16.50	-63.5%
2026-09	14	21.4%	4.64	+$0.40	+2.9%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	13	15.4%	$-7.40	-56.9%
3.0-5.0	29	20.7%	$-8.40	-29.0%
5.0-8.0	11	0.0%	$-11.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	4	25.0%	+$4.00	+100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	33	21.2%	$-10.30	-31.2%
Rank 2	9	11.1%	$-5.50	-61.1%
Rank 3	10	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	7	14.3%	+$1.00	+14.3%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 60 of 60 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	53	17.0%	$-18.80	-35.5%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	60	15.0%	$-25.80	-43.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
strathalbyn	7	28.6%	$-0.20	-2.9%
bordertown	9	22.2%	$-2.60	-28.9%
mount gambier	18	11.1%	$-7.30	-40.6%
naracoorte	15	13.3%	$-7.60	-50.7%
port augusta	11	9.1%	$-8.10	-73.6%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Fri	31	16.1%	$-14.50	-46.8%
Sun	29	13.8%	$-11.30	-39.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 80.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.75 (+34.9% ROI) on 5 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-20	mount gambier	Urbanise	8.00	+$7.00
2026-07-24	naracoorte	Astrodean	3.90	+$2.90
2026-08-30	strathalbyn	Hamner Springs	3.80	+$2.80
2026-07-24	naracoorte	Lots Of Torque	3.50	+$2.50
2026-09-11	bordertown	Naralinga	3.40	+$2.40

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-20	mount gambier	Naralinga	2.60	$-1.00
2026-08-28	naracoorte	Gusty Way	5.00	$-1.00
2026-08-28	naracoorte	Tannenburg	5.50	$-1.00
2026-08-30	strathalbyn	Chur Nibble	2.50	$-1.00
2026-08-30	strathalbyn	Kushan Khanivale	4.20	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.