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Lachlan Stace
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (19 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 5.3% trails market-implied 27.2% by -21.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -34.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -90.3%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -43.5% (-46.7% → -90.3%) · Shrunk ROI: -9.7% (-24.5% → -34.3%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-17.15
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-34.3%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
27.2%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 19 | $-17.15 | -90.3% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 18 | $-18.00 | -100.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 17 | $-17.00 | -100.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 14 | $-14.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-05 | 6 | 0.0% | 4.93 | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-07 | 13 | 7.7% | 4.28 | $-11.15 | -85.8% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 1 | 100.0% | +$0.85 | +85.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 10 | 0.0% | $-10.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 9 | 11.1% | $-7.15 | -79.4% |
| Rank 2 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 13 of 19 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 12 | 8.3% | $-10.15 | -84.6% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 19 | 5.3% | $-17.15 | -90.3% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| mount gambier | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| port augusta | 13 | 7.7% | $-11.15 | -85.8% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Fri | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| Sun | 13 | 7.7% | $-11.15 | -85.8% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-05 | port augusta | Star Casino | 1.85 | +$0.85 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-08 | port augusta | Samanth | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | port augusta | Holder Maid | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-05 | port augusta | Star Decorum | 3.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-05 | port augusta | Little One | 4.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | port augusta | Foxy Gisella | 7.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.