Lachlan Stace

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (19 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 21.1% trails market-implied 27.2% by -6.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -45.8%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-21.4%) — trend is declining.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

21.1%

Avg Odds

4.17

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-7.00

ROI

-36.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

27.2%

Calibration Gap

-6.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	19	$-7.00	-36.8%
Minus best 1 bet	18	$-9.50	-52.8%
Minus best 2 bets	17	$-11.70	-68.8%
Minus best 5 bets	14	$-14.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-45.8%

Prior 60d ROI

-21.4%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	7	28.6%	4.00	$-1.50	-21.4%
2026-04	6	33.3%	3.60	+$0.50	+8.3%
2026-05	6	0.0%	4.93	$-6.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	3	33.3%	$-0.70	-23.3%
3.0-5.0	11	27.3%	$-1.30	-11.8%
5.0-8.0	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	19	21.1%	$-7.00	-36.8%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
mount gambier	7	28.6%	$-1.50	-21.4%
port augusta	12	16.7%	$-5.50	-45.8%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Fri	13	15.4%	$-7.50	-57.7%
Sun	6	33.3%	+$0.50	+8.3%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-12	port augusta	Lady Memphis	3.50	+$2.50
2026-03-13	mount gambier	Dantooine	3.20	+$2.20
2026-04-12	port augusta	Holder Maid	3.00	+$2.00
2026-03-13	mount gambier	Drumlargen	2.30	+$1.30

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-08	port augusta	Samanth	5.50	$-1.00
2026-03-13	mount gambier	Sethacchio	3.20	$-1.00
2026-04-12	port augusta	The Last Dance	4.50	$-1.00
2026-05-08	port augusta	Holder Maid	6.50	$-1.00
2026-04-12	port augusta	Conjoin	3.90	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.