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Luke Hovhanesian
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 28.4% vs implied 26.3% (+2.1pp). Picks track market expectations. 236% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -10.2% on 93 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +0.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw +7.4%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +22.1% (-14.8% → +7.4%) · Shrunk ROI: +14.7% (-14.3% → +0.3%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → ROI MISLEADING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$7.00
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
+0.3%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
26.3%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 95 | +$7.00 | +7.4% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 94 | $-4.00 | -4.3% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 93 | $-9.50 | -10.2% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 90 | $-22.50 | -25.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 10 | 20.0% | 5.06 | $-1.70 | -17.0% |
| 2026-08 | 35 | 28.6% | 4.42 | +$6.90 | +19.7% |
| 2026-09 | 41 | 26.8% | 6.61 | $-3.15 | -7.7% |
| 2026-10 | 9 | 44.4% | 5.34 | +$4.95 | +55.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 5 | 60.0% | +$0.30 | +6.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 16 | 43.8% | +$0.40 | +2.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 42 | 26.2% | $-1.20 | -2.9% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 22 | 22.7% | +$5.50 | +25.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 7 | 14.3% | +$5.00 | +71.4% |
| 15+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 27 | 40.7% | $-1.50 | -5.6% |
| Rank 2 | 31 | 29.0% | +$4.10 | +13.2% |
| Rank 3 | 20 | 30.0% | +$9.40 | +47.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 8 | 12.5% | +$4.00 | +50.0% |
Based on 95 of 95 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 15 | 33.3% | +$12.50 | +83.3% |
| Outside Zone | 80 | 27.5% | $-5.50 | -6.9% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 95 | 28.4% | +$7.00 | +7.4% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| scone | 5 | 60.0% | +$4.00 | +80.0% |
| newcastle | 8 | 37.5% | +$3.90 | +48.8% |
| grafton | 7 | 28.6% | +$3.10 | +44.3% |
| canberra | 5 | 60.0% | +$1.55 | +31.0% |
| hawkesbury | 5 | 20.0% | $-2.90 | -58.0% |
| wyong | 6 | 16.7% | $-3.10 | -51.7% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 35 | 31.4% | +$0.05 | +0.1% |
| Tue | 35 | 28.6% | +$12.50 | +35.7% |
| Thu | 13 | 7.7% | $-8.00 | -61.5% |
| Fri | 12 | 41.7% | +$2.45 | +20.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 66.7%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.23 (-7.6% ROI) on 3 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-04 | gundagai | Riverbend Unicorn | 12.00 | +$11.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | grafton | Humphree Bear | 6.50 | +$5.50 |
| 2026-08-18 | albury | Flying Corsair | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | newcastle | Perfumist | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | illawarra grange | Cobra Club | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-11 | ballina | Bluish Hue | 2.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | wyong | Elliptical | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | hawkesbury | Legaselli | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | queanbeyan | Starlight Girl | 9.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-17 | scone | Feazabeel | 2.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.