Luke Hovhanesian

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 21.1% trails market-implied 26.3% by -5.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -33.3%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-14.2%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -18.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -22.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +0.8% (-22.8% → -22.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +2.0% (-20.3% → -18.3%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

21.1%

Avg Odds

6.26

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-15.60

ROI

-22.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-18.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

26.3%

Calibration Gap

-5.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	71	$-15.60	-22.0%
Minus best 1 bet	70	$-22.10	-31.6%
Minus best 2 bets	69	$-28.10	-40.7%
Minus best 5 bets	66	$-40.60	-61.5%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-33.3%

Prior 60d ROI

-14.2%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	13	23.1%	8.25	+$1.60	+12.3%
2026-05	21	23.8%	6.61	$-3.75	-17.9%
2026-06	28	21.4%	5.70	$-7.95	-28.4%
2026-07	9	11.1%	4.37	$-5.50	-61.1%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	5	60.0%	+$0.30	+6.0%
2.0-3.0	17	23.5%	$-7.10	-41.8%
3.0-5.0	20	25.0%	$-0.80	-4.0%
5.0-8.0	17	17.6%	+$4.00	+23.5%
8.0-15	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
15+	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	15	46.7%	+$0.90	+6.0%
Rank 2	8	12.5%	$-3.80	-47.5%
Rank 3	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	5	20.0%	+$2.50	+50.0%
Rank 6+	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%

Based on 42 of 71 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	34	26.5%	$-6.40	-18.8%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	71	21.1%	$-15.60	-22.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
newcastle	5	20.0%	+$2.00	+40.0%
albury	5	20.0%	$-1.40	-28.0%
taree	8	25.0%	$-2.95	-36.9%
muswellbrook	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
scone	11	9.1%	$-9.20	-83.6%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	23	34.8%	+$7.05	+30.7%
Tue	25	16.0%	$-13.75	-55.0%
Thu	13	15.4%	$-2.50	-19.2%
Fri	10	10.0%	$-6.40	-64.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.52 (+26.0% ROI) on 2 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-15	nowra	Lightning Speed	7.50	+$6.50
2026-04-23	newcastle	Master Yoda	7.00	+$6.00
2026-05-11	quirindi	Cooma Hut	6.50	+$5.50
2026-04-28	quirindi	Piccaderro	4.80	+$3.80
2026-06-01	corowa	Forte Cheval	4.20	+$3.20

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-29	albury	Cayman Island	5.50	$-1.00
2026-05-01	muswellbrook	Hot Chocks	7.00	$-1.00
2026-07-07	muswellbrook	What A Gent	2.60	$-1.00
2026-05-19	newcastle	Sister Daae	7.00	$-1.00
2026-05-12	bathurst	Flying Giselle	5.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.