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Luke Hovhanesian
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (53 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 26.4% vs implied 28.6% (-2.2pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI +6.2%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-36.3%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-6.50
Implied Win % (1/odds)
28.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 53 | $-6.50 | -12.3% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 52 | $-12.50 | -24.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 51 | $-18.00 | -35.3% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 48 | $-28.40 | -59.2% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 15 | 33.3% | 3.69 | $-2.65 | -17.7% |
| 2026-04 | 17 | 23.5% | 7.42 | $-0.10 | -0.6% |
| 2026-05 | 21 | 23.8% | 6.61 | $-3.75 | -17.9% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 5 | 60.0% | $-0.10 | -2.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 14 | 35.7% | $-2.40 | -17.1% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 17 | 17.6% | $-5.50 | -32.4% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 10 | 30.0% | +$8.50 | +85.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 2 | 100.0% | +$2.05 | +102.5% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 5 of 53 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 5 | 40.0% | $-0.95 | -19.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 53 | 26.4% | $-6.50 | -12.3% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| newcastle | 10 | 40.0% | +$2.45 | +24.5% |
| scone | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 24 | 37.5% | +$1.50 | +6.3% |
| Tue | 10 | 30.0% | +$0.40 | +4.0% |
| Thu | 9 | 11.1% | $-2.00 | -22.2% |
| Fri | 10 | 10.0% | $-6.40 | -64.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-23 | newcastle | Master Yoda | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | quirindi | Cooma Hut | 6.50 | +$5.50 |
| 2026-03-30 | grafton | Full Regalia | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | quirindi | Piccaderro | 4.80 | +$3.80 |
| 2026-05-15 | albury | Pariah Flyer | 3.60 | +$2.60 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-30 | grafton | Referees | 2.25 | $-2.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | muswellbrook | Hot Chocks | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-23 | ballina | Caramelfudgesundae | 3.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | newcastle | Sister Daae | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | bathurst | Flying Giselle | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.