Rory Flanagan

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-12 10:51 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Calibration is positive: actual win rate 24.7% beats market-implied 20.2% by +4.5pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 312% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -15.9% on 87 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -3.2%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+63.6%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +0.0% — a more honest expectation than the raw +7.3%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: — · Shrunk ROI: —

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

24.7%

Avg Odds

9.61

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$6.50

ROI

+7.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+0.0%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

20.2%

Calibration Gap

+4.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	89	+$6.50	+7.3%
Minus best 1 bet	88	$-6.00	-6.8%
Minus best 2 bets	87	$-13.80	-15.9%
Minus best 5 bets	84	$-31.20	-37.1%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-3.2%

Prior 60d ROI

+63.6%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	14	50.0%	4.97	+$8.91	+63.6%
2026-07	63	22.2%	8.13	+$7.86	+12.5%
2026-08	12	8.3%	22.79	$-10.27	-85.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	7	71.4%	+$1.92	+27.4%
2.0-3.0	6	50.0%	+$0.38	+6.3%
3.0-5.0	20	35.0%	+$6.40	+32.0%
5.0-8.0	22	22.7%	+$9.50	+43.2%
8.0-15	24	8.3%	$-1.70	-7.1%
15+	10	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	24	54.2%	+$16.95	+70.6%
Rank 2	19	26.3%	+$0.05	+0.3%
Rank 3	9	22.2%	+$4.20	+46.7%
Rank 4-5	16	12.5%	+$6.30	+39.4%
Rank 6+	19	0.0%	$-19.00	-100.0%

Based on 87 of 89 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	21	23.8%	+$10.50	+50.0%
Outside Zone	66	25.8%	$-2.00	-3.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	89	24.7%	+$6.50	+7.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
curragh	14	50.0%	+$8.91	+63.6%
newmarket	11	18.2%	+$1.55	+14.1%
sandown	5	40.0%	+$1.55	+31.0%
goodwood	49	20.4%	$-1.51	-3.1%
ascot	8	12.5%	$-2.00	-25.0%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 17 settled, place rate 29.4%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-8.66 (-50.9% ROI) on 17 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-31	goodwood	Revels	13.50	+$12.50
2026-07-10	newmarket	Twilight Calls	8.80	+$7.80
2026-07-30	goodwood	Mans Best Friend	7.20	+$6.20
2026-06-27	curragh	Meriden	7.20	+$6.20
2026-07-25	ascot	Moonrise	6.00	+$5.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-01	goodwood	Tarriance	26.00	$-1.00
2026-07-30	goodwood	Flann Sunna	2.54	$-1.00
2026-07-29	goodwood	Gstaad	4.30	$-1.00
2026-07-31	goodwood	Room Fourteen	3.65	$-1.00
2026-06-28	curragh	Rolltight	8.40	$-1.00

Generated 2026-08-12 10:51 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.