Rory Flanagan

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 18.1% vs implied 18.8% (-0.7pp). Picks track market expectations.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -12.1% (-5.6% → -17.7%) · Shrunk ROI: -9.5% (-7.2% → -16.7%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

177

Wins

Win Rate

18.1%

Avg Odds

10.00

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-31.39

ROI

-17.7%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-16.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

18.8%

Calibration Gap

-0.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	177	$-31.39	-17.7%
Minus best 1 bet	176	$-44.39	-25.2%
Minus best 2 bets	175	$-56.89	-32.5%
Minus best 5 bets	172	$-83.29	-48.4%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-21.1%

Prior 60d ROI

-15.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	52	19.2%	8.58	$-0.24	-0.5%
2026-08	47	14.9%	12.60	$-14.72	-31.3%
2026-09	61	23.0%	8.52	$-12.43	-20.4%
2026-10	17	5.9%	12.49	$-4.00	-23.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	5	60.0%	+$0.25	+5.0%
2.0-3.0	22	50.0%	+$4.36	+19.8%
3.0-5.0	33	27.3%	+$1.70	+5.2%
5.0-8.0	45	11.1%	$-15.40	-34.2%
8.0-15	42	9.5%	+$7.70	+18.3%
15+	30	0.0%	$-30.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	48	41.7%	+$15.84	+33.0%
Rank 2	38	15.8%	$-12.53	-33.0%
Rank 3	17	5.9%	$-11.00	-64.7%
Rank 4-5	28	10.7%	+$12.50	+44.6%
Rank 6+	44	4.5%	$-34.20	-77.7%

Based on 175 of 177 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	46	10.9%	$-12.50	-27.2%
Outside Zone	129	20.9%	$-16.89	-13.1%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	177	18.1%	$-31.39	-17.7%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
leopardstown	8	25.0%	+$3.22	+40.2%
goodwood	49	20.4%	$-1.51	-3.1%
ascot	8	12.5%	$-2.00	-25.0%
curragh	7	14.3%	$-3.05	-43.6%
york	35	17.1%	$-4.45	-12.7%
newmarket	16	25.0%	$-4.97	-31.1%
parislongchamp	10	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%
doncaster	27	18.5%	$-12.09	-44.8%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 29 settled, place rate 34.5%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-10.93 (-37.7% ROI) on 29 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-22	york	Daiquiri Bay	14.00	+$13.00
2026-07-31	goodwood	Revels	13.50	+$12.50
2026-10-03		Fairy Glen	13.00	+$12.00
2026-09-12	leopardstown	Rebel Wave	9.20	+$8.20
2026-07-30	goodwood	Mans Best Friend	7.20	+$6.20

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-01	goodwood	Tarriance	26.00	$-1.00
2026-07-30	goodwood	Flann Sunna	2.54	$-1.00
2026-10-04	parislongchamp	Folsom Blues	2.44	$-1.00
2026-07-29	goodwood	Gstaad	4.30	$-1.00
2026-09-11	doncaster	Tokaido	18.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.