Rory Flanagan

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-27 18:16 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (7 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 42.9% beats market-implied 27.2% by +15.7pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 164% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -71.2% on 5 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -1.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw +79.9%.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

42.9%

Avg Odds

5.13

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$5.59

ROI

+79.9%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-1.6%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

27.2%

Calibration Gap

+15.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	7	42.9%	5.13	+$5.59	+79.9%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	100.0%	+$0.44	+44.0%
3.0-5.0	3	33.3%	+$0.95	+31.7%
5.0-8.0	2	50.0%	+$5.20	+260.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	2	50.0%	$-0.56	-28.0%
Rank 2	3	33.3%	+$0.95	+31.7%
Rank 3	1	100.0%	+$6.20	+620.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 7 of 7 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	50.0%	+$5.20	+260.0%
Outside Zone	5	40.0%	+$0.39	+7.8%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	7	42.9%	+$5.59	+79.9%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
curragh	7	42.9%	+$5.59	+79.9%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-27	curragh	Meriden	7.20	+$6.20
2026-06-27	curragh	Estrange	3.95	+$2.95
2026-06-27	curragh	Sun Goddess	1.44	+$0.44

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-27	curragh	Real Encounter	6.80	$-1.00
2026-06-27	curragh	Rion Rubette	9.20	$-1.00
2026-06-27	curragh	Starborn Legend	4.20	$-1.00
2026-06-27	curragh	The Pipers Call	3.10	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-27 18:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.