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Alex Vlahos
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (17 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 29.4% vs implied 28.0% (+1.4pp). Picks track market expectations. 451% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -34.7% on 15 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -35.5%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+89.7%) — trend is declining.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$1.48
Implied Win % (1/odds)
28.0%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 17 | +$1.48 | +8.7% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 16 | $-2.00 | -12.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 15 | $-5.20 | -34.7% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 12 | $-12.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 6 | 50.0% | 3.92 | +$5.38 | +89.7% |
| 2026-05 | 11 | 18.2% | 3.72 | $-3.90 | -35.5% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 3 | 66.7% | +$4.18 | +139.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 12 | 25.0% | $-0.70 | -5.8% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 6 | 16.7% | $-2.30 | -38.3% |
| Rank 2 | 4 | 25.0% | $-0.60 | -15.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 11 of 17 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 11 | 18.2% | $-3.90 | -35.5% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 17 | 29.4% | +$1.48 | +8.7% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| york | 6 | 50.0% | +$5.38 | +89.7% |
| carnarvon | 5 | 20.0% | $-1.30 | -26.0% |
| roebourne | 6 | 16.7% | $-2.60 | -43.3% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 6 | 50.0% | +$5.38 | +89.7% |
| Sat | 5 | 20.0% | $-1.30 | -26.0% |
| Sun | 6 | 16.7% | $-2.60 | -43.3% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.43 (-21.5% ROI) on 2 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-06 | york | Masamune | 2.70 | +$3.48 |
| 2026-04-06 | york | Saucisson | 4.20 | +$3.20 |
| 2026-05-30 | carnarvon | Mystery Minute | 3.70 | +$2.70 |
| 2026-05-24 | roebourne | Percussion Prince | 3.40 | +$2.40 |
| 2026-04-06 | york | Scream | 2.70 | +$1.70 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-06 | york | Gold Beau | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | roebourne | Eight Ounces | 4.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | carnarvon | Alma Mater | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | carnarvon | Gold Spy | 3.10 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-06 | york | Pretty Devine | 3.60 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.