statsinsider

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-01 04:41 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (6 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 50.0% beats market-implied 45.8% by +4.2pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 359% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -59.5% on 4 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -10.0% — a more honest expectation than the raw +15.3%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: — · Shrunk ROI: —

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

50.0%

Avg Odds

2.45

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$0.92

ROI

+15.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-10.0%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

45.8%

Calibration Gap

+4.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	6	50.0%	2.45	+$0.92	+15.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	66.7%	+$0.41	+13.7%
2.0-3.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	2	50.0%	+$1.51	+75.5%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	2	50.0%	$-0.38	-19.0%
Rank 2	3	66.7%	+$2.30	+76.7%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 6 of 6 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	6	50.0%	+$0.92	+15.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
payload	6	50.0%	+$0.92	+15.3%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	3	33.3%	+$0.51	+17.0%
Sun	3	66.7%	+$0.41	+13.7%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-17	England	3.51	+$2.51
2026-07-17	Both Teams to Score - No	1.79	+$0.79
2026-07-17	Under 2.5 Goals	1.62	+$0.62

Biggest losses

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-17	Both Teams to Score - No	2.58	$-1.00
2026-07-17	Under 3.5 Goals	1.61	$-1.00
2026-07-17	Argentina	3.59	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-01 04:41 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.