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Brendan Tupper
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-27 08:08 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (9 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 44.4% beats market-implied 27.6% by +16.8pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 128% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -37.9% on 7 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +4.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw +103.9%.
Bio & context
Brendan Tupper is a highly regarded Victorian thoroughbred racing form analyst who has been tipping publicly since at least June 2009. He specializes in Victorian racing and publishes selections through TheGreatTipOff.com platform (labeled "Best Bets | VIC"), with his tips historically appearing in Tattsbet and RacingNetwork publications. He typically posts tips on Wednesday, Saturday, and Sunday, focusing on Victorian metropolitan and country tracks.
Victoria, AustraliaForm analyst / independent tipster17 yrs
Methodology: Form-based analysis focused on Victorian racing. Tips are posted as "Best Bets" with his selections typically averaging around $3.45 win odds historically. TheGreatTipOff records only his best bets in accordance with their policy.
Specialty: Victorian thoroughbred racing
Public footprint
- TheGreatTipOff.com platform (primary)
- Twitter/X: @Brendantupper (joined May 2009, 1,861 followers as of search date, describes himself as 'Victorian Form Analyst')
- Historical publication in Tattsbet and RacingNetwork publications
- Winning Post tipster archive
- Best Bets publication (Saturday racing tips)
Public track-record claims
- TheGreatTipOff May 2024 article described him as 'veteran gun' with profit of $1,850 from 29 tips (marketing claim, platform promotional content)
- Platform statistics show '113%' ROT in archived forum discussion (historical claim, context unclear)
- Recent GTO stats show 'Turned $760 into $2,170' and '52 winners' (platform marketing claim, timeframe unverified)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +68.1% (+35.8% → +103.9%) · Shrunk ROI: -3.8% (+8.7% → +4.8%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$9.35
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
+4.8%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
27.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 2 | 50.0% | 11.20 | +$0.40 | +20.0% |
| 2026-08 | 4 | 50.0% | 5.24 | +$3.95 | +98.8% |
| 2026-09 | 3 | 33.3% | 4.25 | +$5.00 | +166.7% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 2 | 50.0% | $-0.05 | -2.5% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 1 | 100.0% | +$1.40 | +140.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 3 | 33.3% | +$3.00 | +100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 100.0% | +$7.00 | +700.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 2 | 3 | 66.7% | +$1.35 | +45.0% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 3 | 66.7% | +$11.00 | +366.7% |
Based on 9 of 9 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 8 | 50.0% | +$10.35 | +129.4% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 9 | 44.4% | +$9.35 | +103.9% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
(no day-of-week data)
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-01 | sandown | Leonchroi | 8.00 | +$7.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | warrnambool | Big Rooster | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | bendigo | Shapenapit | 2.40 | +$1.40 |
| 2026-08-19 | warrnambool | Reddivo | 1.95 | +$0.95 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-01 | sandown | Educated | 1.75 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | wangaratta | Miss Himalaya | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | sandown | Somethings Burnin' | 3.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | bendigo | Queen Of Cordoba | 20.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | wangaratta | Naughty Jamie | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-27 08:08 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.