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Heath Pope
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-20 22:27 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Small sample (31 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 22.6% vs implied 20.3% (+2.3pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -40.5%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+11.0%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -10.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw -5.6%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +24.8% (-30.4% → -5.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +13.1% (-23.3% → -10.2%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-1.75
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-10.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
20.3%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 31 | $-1.75 | -5.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 30 | $-8.25 | -27.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 29 | $-13.75 | -47.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 26 | $-21.45 | -82.5% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 2 | 50.0% | 6.25 | +$4.50 | +225.0% |
| 2026-08 | 12 | 16.7% | 6.65 | $-1.90 | -15.8% |
| 2026-09 | 10 | 40.0% | 6.92 | +$2.65 | +26.5% |
| 2026-10 | 7 | 0.0% | 8.74 | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 2 | 50.0% | $-0.05 | -2.5% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 2 | 100.0% | +$3.30 | +165.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 9 | 22.2% | $-1.00 | -11.1% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 7 | 28.6% | +$7.00 | +100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 13 | 38.5% | +$2.25 | +17.3% |
| Rank 2 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 4 | 50.0% | +$10.00 | +250.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 31 of 31 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 8 | 25.0% | +$6.00 | +75.0% |
| Outside Zone | 23 | 21.7% | $-7.75 | -33.7% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 31 | 22.6% | $-1.75 | -5.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| morphettville | 24 | 20.8% | $-0.70 | -2.9% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sat | 31 | 22.6% | $-1.75 | -5.6% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.55 (+54.9% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-22 | morphettville | Fast Tempo | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-07-25 | morphettville | Lingani | 6.50 | +$5.50 |
| 2026-09-25 | murray bridge | From The Block | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | morphettville | Thermodynamic | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | morphettville | Olivia Marie | 2.70 | +$1.70 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-05 | morphettville | Giggenbach | 3.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | caulfield | Desert Lightning | 13.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | morphettville | Big Sue | 13.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-25 | morphettville | A Samurai Mind | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | morphettville | Signature Scent | 10.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-20 22:27 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.