← Back to dashboard
Heath Pope
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (32 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 6.2% trails market-implied 17.0% by -10.8pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -34.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -68.6%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -8.9% (-59.7% → -68.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +4.9% (-39.6% → -34.7%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-21.95
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-34.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
17.0%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 32 | $-21.95 | -68.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 31 | $-29.45 | -95.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 30 | $-30.00 | -100.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 27 | $-27.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 6 | 0.0% | 10.92 | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-05 | 20 | 5.0% | 11.34 | $-11.50 | -57.5% |
| 2026-07 | 6 | 16.7% | 6.03 | $-4.45 | -74.2% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 1 | 100.0% | +$0.55 | +55.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 11 | 9.1% | $-2.50 | -22.7% |
| 15+ | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 3 | 33.3% | $-1.45 | -48.3% |
| Rank 2 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 4 | 25.0% | +$4.50 | +112.5% |
| Rank 6+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 15 of 32 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 10 | 20.0% | +$0.05 | +0.5% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 32 | 6.2% | $-21.95 | -68.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| murray bridge | 9 | 22.2% | +$1.05 | +11.7% |
| morphettville | 21 | 0.0% | $-21.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sat | 32 | 6.2% | $-21.95 | -68.6% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-23 | murray bridge | Real Deluxe | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-07-04 | murray bridge | Orlova | 1.55 | +$0.55 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-23 | murray bridge | Fearless Freddy | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | morphettville | Maisy | 9.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-04 | flemington | De Bergerac | 4.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | morphettville | Aviatress | 4.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | morphettville | Sharendipity | 23.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.