Heath Pope

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-05 05:11 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (26 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 23.1% vs implied 23.1% (+0.0pp). Picks track market expectations. 474% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -44.4% on 24 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -8.6%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+33.8%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -4.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw +11.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +53.6% (-42.6% → +11.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +25.5% (-30.3% → -4.8%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

23.1%

Avg Odds

5.95

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$2.85

ROI

+11.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-4.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

23.1%

Calibration Gap

+0.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	26	+$2.85	+11.0%
Minus best 1 bet	25	$-4.15	-16.6%
Minus best 2 bets	24	$-10.65	-44.4%
Minus best 5 bets	21	$-19.45	-92.6%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-8.6%

Prior 60d ROI

+33.8%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	12	25.0%	5.72	+$4.05	+33.8%
2026-08	12	16.7%	6.65	$-1.90	-15.8%
2026-09	2	50.0%	3.10	+$0.70	+35.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	50.0%	$-0.45	-22.5%
2.0-3.0	3	66.7%	+$2.30	+76.7%
3.0-5.0	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	7	28.6%	+$7.00	+100.0%
8.0-15	8	12.5%	+$0.00	+0.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	10	30.0%	$-3.15	-31.5%
Rank 2	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	6	33.3%	+$8.00	+133.3%
Rank 4-5	4	25.0%	+$4.00	+100.0%
Rank 6+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 26 of 26 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	9	22.2%	+$5.00	+55.6%
Outside Zone	17	23.5%	$-2.15	-12.6%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	26	23.1%	+$2.85	+11.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
morphettville	19	26.3%	+$8.30	+43.7%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	26	23.1%	+$2.85	+11.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.82 (+91.1% ROI) on 2 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-17	morphettville	Miracle Spin	8.00	+$7.00
2026-08-22	morphettville	Fast Tempo	7.50	+$6.50
2026-07-25	morphettville	Lingani	6.50	+$5.50
2026-09-05	morphettville	Olivia Marie	2.70	+$1.70
2026-08-22	morphettville	Pretty Baby	2.60	+$1.60

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-05	morphettville	Giggenbach	3.50	$-1.00
2026-07-04	flemington	De Bergerac	4.60	$-1.00
2026-08-14	caulfield	Desert Lightning	13.00	$-1.00
2026-07-25	morphettville	A Samurai Mind	6.00	$-1.00
2026-08-22	morphettville	Amalfi Dreamer	1.65	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-05 05:11 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.