Lay Back

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (3 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 0.0% trails market-implied 27.4% by -27.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -17.9% — a more honest expectation than the raw -100.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: — · Shrunk ROI: —

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

0.0%

Avg Odds

4.26

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-3.00

ROI

-100.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-17.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

27.4%

Calibration Gap

-27.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-09	3	0.0%	4.26	$-3.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 3 of 3 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
No wins

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-27	caulfield	1. Sass Appeal	2.72	$-1.00
2026-09-27	caulfield	3. Another Wil	6.80	$-1.00
2026-09-27		5. Beiwacht	3.25	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.