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Glen Moore

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (26 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 30.8% trails market-implied 52.2% by -21.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -21.6%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-66.5%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets
26
Wins
8
Win Rate
30.8%
Avg Odds
2.62
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-10.10
ROI
-38.8%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
52.2%
Calibration Gap
-21.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

SubsetNP/LROI
Full record26$-10.10-38.8%
Minus best 1 bet25$-13.90-55.6%
Minus best 2 bets24$-14.85-61.9%
Minus best 5 bets21$-16.90-80.5%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI
-21.6%
Prior 60d ROI
-66.5%

Monthly performance

MonthNWin %Avg OddsP/LROI
2026-03714.3%1.77$-5.60-80.0%
2026-04616.7%2.27$-4.05-67.5%
2026-051346.2%3.25$-0.45-3.5%

By odds bracket

OddsNWin %P/LROI
<2.01546.7%$-3.90-26.0%
2.0-3.040.0%$-4.00-100.0%
3.0-5.0520.0%$-0.20-4.0%
5.0-8.010.0%$-1.00-100.0%
8.0-1510.0%$-1.00-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race RankNWin %P/LROI
Rank 1 (fav)2100.0%+$1.50+75.0%
Rank 220.0%$-2.00-100.0%
Rank 4-510.0%$-1.00-100.0%
Rank 6+10.0%$-1.00-100.0%

Based on 6 of 26 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

SubsetNWin %P/LROI
Outside Zone633.3%$-2.50-41.7%

By source

SourceNWin %P/LROI
sen_tips2630.8%$-10.10-38.8%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

VenueNWin %P/LROI
pinjarra2630.8%$-10.10-38.8%

By day of week

DayNWin %P/LROI
Mon2630.8%$-10.10-38.8%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

DateVenueSelectionOddsP/L
2026-05-11pinjarraIm Spiderman4.80+$3.80
2026-04-13pinjarraIm Spiderman1.95+$0.95
2026-05-25pinjarraThe Final Offer Nz1.80+$0.80
2026-05-18pinjarraBoy Blue Nz1.70+$0.70
2026-05-04pinjarraSweet Pins Nz1.55+$0.55

Biggest losses

DateVenueSelectionOddsP/L
2026-05-04pinjarraOur Robyn Hood3.20$-1.00
2026-03-02pinjarraMinstrel Nz1.35$-1.00
2026-04-13pinjarraPatriarch Nz1.70$-1.00
2026-03-02pinjarraJimmys Rainbow2.05$-1.00
2026-05-18pinjarraPrince Of Tribeca2.30$-1.00
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.