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Glen Moore
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (34 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 44.1% trails market-implied 49.2% by -5.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +9.9% (-22.8% → -13.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +4.8% (-17.8% → -13.0%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-4.41
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-13.0%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
49.2%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 34 | $-4.41 | -13.0% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 33 | $-8.21 | -24.9% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 32 | $-9.81 | -30.7% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 29 | $-13.51 | -46.6% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | 0.0% | 1.50 | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-05 | 13 | 46.2% | 3.25 | $-0.45 | -3.5% |
| 2026-06 | 14 | 50.0% | 2.15 | $-0.56 | -4.0% |
| 2026-07 | 4 | 50.0% | 2.36 | $-0.40 | -10.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 14 | 71.4% | +$1.49 | +10.6% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 12 | 33.3% | $-2.70 | -22.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 7 | 14.3% | $-2.20 | -31.4% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 11 | 54.5% | $-1.36 | -12.4% |
| Rank 2 | 5 | 20.0% | $-2.55 | -51.0% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 5 | 60.0% | +$1.55 | +31.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 2 | 50.0% | $-0.10 | -5.0% |
Based on 24 of 34 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 24 | 45.8% | $-3.46 | -14.4% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 34 | 44.1% | $-4.41 | -13.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| pinjarra | 31 | 41.9% | $-5.31 | -17.1% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 34 | 44.1% | $-4.41 | -13.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.60 (+60.0% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-11 | pinjarra | Im Spiderman | 4.80 | +$3.80 |
| 2026-06-15 | pinjarra | A Precious Gem | 2.60 | +$1.60 |
| 2026-06-08 | pinjarra | Soho Moonraker | 2.45 | +$1.45 |
| 2026-07-06 | pinjarra | Bumrah | 2.25 | +$1.25 |
| 2026-06-01 | pinjarra (aus) | Eastbro Chrissy | 2.00 | +$1.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-04 | pinjarra | Our Robyn Hood | 3.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-08 | pinjarra | The Sea Siren | 3.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | pinjarra | Prince Of Tribeca | 2.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | pinjarra | Our Robyn Hood | 2.35 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-04 | pinjarra | Miss Uneek | 2.60 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.