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Glen Moore
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (26 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 30.8% trails market-implied 52.2% by -21.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -21.6%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-66.5%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-10.10
Implied Win % (1/odds)
52.2%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 26 | $-10.10 | -38.8% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 25 | $-13.90 | -55.6% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 24 | $-14.85 | -61.9% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 21 | $-16.90 | -80.5% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 7 | 14.3% | 1.77 | $-5.60 | -80.0% |
| 2026-04 | 6 | 16.7% | 2.27 | $-4.05 | -67.5% |
| 2026-05 | 13 | 46.2% | 3.25 | $-0.45 | -3.5% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 15 | 46.7% | $-3.90 | -26.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 5 | 20.0% | $-0.20 | -4.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 2 | 100.0% | +$1.50 | +75.0% |
| Rank 2 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 6 of 26 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 6 | 33.3% | $-2.50 | -41.7% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 26 | 30.8% | $-10.10 | -38.8% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| pinjarra | 26 | 30.8% | $-10.10 | -38.8% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 26 | 30.8% | $-10.10 | -38.8% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-11 | pinjarra | Im Spiderman | 4.80 | +$3.80 |
| 2026-04-13 | pinjarra | Im Spiderman | 1.95 | +$0.95 |
| 2026-05-25 | pinjarra | The Final Offer Nz | 1.80 | +$0.80 |
| 2026-05-18 | pinjarra | Boy Blue Nz | 1.70 | +$0.70 |
| 2026-05-04 | pinjarra | Sweet Pins Nz | 1.55 | +$0.55 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-04 | pinjarra | Our Robyn Hood | 3.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-02 | pinjarra | Minstrel Nz | 1.35 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | pinjarra | Patriarch Nz | 1.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-02 | pinjarra | Jimmys Rainbow | 2.05 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | pinjarra | Prince Of Tribeca | 2.30 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.