Glen Moore

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-19 08:52 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 37.7% trails market-implied 47.0% by -9.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. 319% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -23.3% on 59 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +49.3%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-49.8%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -0.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw +10.3%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +18.6% (-8.3% → +10.3%) · Shrunk ROI: +9.9% (-10.1% → -0.2%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

37.7%

Avg Odds

2.75

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$6.27

ROI

+10.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-0.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

47.0%

Calibration Gap

-9.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	61	+$6.27	+10.3%
Minus best 1 bet	60	$-3.73	-6.2%
Minus best 2 bets	59	$-13.73	-23.3%
Minus best 5 bets	56	$-23.83	-42.6%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+49.3%

Prior 60d ROI

-49.8%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	4	0.0%	2.45	$-4.00	-100.0%
2026-07	9	33.3%	2.08	$-3.90	-43.3%
2026-08	20	30.0%	2.26	$-10.01	-50.1%
2026-09	28	50.0%	3.37	+$24.18	+86.4%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	22	50.0%	$-6.08	-27.6%
2.0-3.0	22	31.8%	$-5.75	-26.1%
3.0-5.0	12	16.7%	$-4.40	-36.7%
5.0-8.0	3	33.3%	+$2.50	+83.3%
8.0-15	2	100.0%	+$20.00	+1000.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	26	38.5%	$-8.30	-31.9%
Rank 2	10	10.0%	$-4.50	-45.0%
Rank 3	10	60.0%	+$5.63	+56.3%
Rank 4-5	7	42.9%	$-2.56	-36.6%
Rank 6+	8	37.5%	+$16.00	+200.0%

Based on 61 of 61 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	100.0%	+$4.50	+450.0%
Outside Zone	60	36.7%	+$1.77	+2.9%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	61	37.7%	+$6.27	+10.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
gloucester park	28	46.4%	+$19.28	+68.9%
pinjarra	33	30.3%	$-13.01	-39.4%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	38	28.9%	$-16.51	-43.4%
Tue	10	60.0%	+$5.05	+50.5%
Fri	13	46.2%	+$17.73	+136.4%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$4.03 (+134.2% ROI) on 3 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-18	gloucester park	Chaco Eagle	11.00	+$10.00
2026-09-11	gloucester park	Youre So Fine	11.00	+$10.00
2026-09-01	gloucester park	Martyr	5.50	+$4.50
2026-09-14	pinjarra	Roman Guard	4.00	+$3.00
2026-09-18	gloucester park	Lou Lamour	3.60	+$2.60

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-10	pinjarra	Asteri Adelphos	1.30	$-1.00
2026-09-04	gloucester park	Captain Stirling	2.60	$-1.00
2026-08-10	pinjarra	Sapari	1.22	$-1.00
2026-08-24	pinjarra	Amalfi Knight	1.26	$-1.00
2026-08-24	pinjarra	A Precious Gem	2.05	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-19 08:52 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.