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Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 28.2% trails market-implied 34.4% by -6.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-14.03
Implied Win % (1/odds)
34.4%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 85 | $-14.03 | -16.5% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 84 | $-18.93 | -22.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 83 | $-23.83 | -28.7% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 80 | $-34.23 | -42.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 23 | 30.4% | 4.14 | $-3.32 | -14.4% |
| 2026-04 | 27 | 33.3% | 3.62 | $-1.33 | -4.9% |
| 2026-05 | 35 | 22.9% | 3.78 | $-9.38 | -26.8% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 13 | 46.2% | $-3.42 | -26.3% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 26 | 30.8% | $-7.06 | -27.2% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 26 | 26.9% | $-0.35 | -1.3% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 16 | 18.8% | +$0.80 | +5.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 4 | 25.0% | $-1.62 | -40.5% |
| Rank 2 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 3 | 33.3% | +$2.90 | +96.7% |
Based on 8 of 85 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 8 | 25.0% | +$0.28 | +3.5% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 85 | 28.2% | $-14.03 | -16.5% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| hobart | 26 | 30.8% | +$0.71 | +2.7% |
| launceston | 38 | 31.6% | $-3.53 | -9.3% |
| devonport | 21 | 19.0% | $-11.21 | -53.4% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 7 | 14.3% | $-3.95 | -56.4% |
| Wed | 7 | 14.3% | $-5.71 | -81.6% |
| Fri | 31 | 35.5% | +$2.18 | +7.0% |
| Sun | 40 | 27.5% | $-6.55 | -16.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.79 (+79.4% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-12 | launceston | Sevillana | 5.90 | +$4.90 |
| 2026-05-23 | hobart | Billie The Great | 5.90 | +$4.90 |
| 2026-05-01 | launceston | Just Lika Dream | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-04-25 | hobart | Light Force | 4.40 | +$3.40 |
| 2026-04-11 | hobart | Crystal Moonbeam | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-17 | launceston | In The Ocean | 2.44 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-02 | devonport | Merlin Beach | 2.64 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-10 | launceston | Lawrenny Boys | 2.18 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | launceston | Keayang Lexi | 3.65 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | devonport | Roundle Park | 2.44 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.