Sky Racing - Duncan Dornauf

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 21.9% trails market-implied 36.0% by -14.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -78.4%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-10.4%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -31.9% — a more honest expectation than the raw -40.2%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -22.1% (-18.1% → -40.2%) · Shrunk ROI: -14.9% (-17.1% → -31.9%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

114

Wins

Win Rate

21.9%

Avg Odds

3.71

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-45.87

ROI

-40.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-31.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

36.0%

Calibration Gap

-14.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	114	$-45.87	-40.2%
Minus best 1 bet	113	$-51.07	-45.2%
Minus best 2 bets	112	$-55.97	-50.0%
Minus best 5 bets	109	$-66.47	-61.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-78.4%

Prior 60d ROI

-10.4%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	15	26.7%	3.40	$-4.45	-29.7%
2026-05	43	25.6%	3.98	$-8.36	-19.4%
2026-06	33	18.2%	3.62	$-15.98	-48.4%
2026-07	23	17.4%	3.55	$-17.08	-74.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	21	52.4%	$-3.42	-16.3%
2.0-3.0	29	20.7%	$-14.50	-50.0%
3.0-5.0	38	13.2%	$-19.05	-50.1%
5.0-8.0	19	15.8%	$-1.90	-10.0%
8.0-15	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	37	29.7%	$-13.98	-37.8%
Rank 2	11	9.1%	$-6.90	-62.7%
Rank 3	8	12.5%	$-1.80	-22.5%
Rank 4-5	11	18.2%	$-4.08	-37.1%
Rank 6+	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

Based on 72 of 114 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	8	12.5%	$-1.80	-22.5%
Outside Zone	64	21.9%	$-29.96	-46.8%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	114	21.9%	$-45.87	-40.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
launceston	28	28.6%	$-9.51	-34.0%
hobart	43	18.6%	$-14.36	-33.4%
devonport	43	20.9%	$-22.00	-51.2%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Fri	28	28.6%	$-9.51	-34.0%
Sun	86	19.8%	$-36.36	-42.3%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 7 settled, place rate 71.4%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.66 (+27.7% ROI) on 6 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-06	hobart	Furneaux	6.20	+$5.20
2026-05-23	hobart	Billie The Great	5.90	+$4.90
2026-05-01	launceston	Just Lika Dream	5.00	+$4.00
2026-04-25	hobart	Light Force	4.40	+$3.40
2026-05-30	devonport	Houlihan	4.10	+$3.10

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-17	launceston	In The Ocean	2.44	$-1.00
2026-07-04	hobart	Coastal Strike	4.40	$-1.00
2026-06-12	launceston	Cheys Angel	1.02	$-1.00
2026-05-02	devonport	Merlin Beach	2.64	$-1.00
2026-06-13	devonport	Tsunami Sam	5.90	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.