Adam Cooney

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-11 10:31 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (17 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 35.3% trails market-implied 60.1% by -24.8pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -30.2%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-10.9%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -15.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw -21.1%.

Since last weekly snapshot: +2 new bets · ROI: +19.5% (-40.6% → -21.1%) · Shrunk ROI: +4.3% (-19.4% → -15.1%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

35.3%

Avg Odds

2.03

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-3.59

ROI

-21.1%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-15.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

60.1%

Calibration Gap

-24.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	17	$-3.59	-21.1%
Minus best 1 bet	16	$-6.59	-41.2%
Minus best 2 bets	15	$-8.25	-55.0%
Minus best 5 bets	12	$-10.99	-91.6%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-30.2%

Prior 60d ROI

-10.9%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	4	0.0%	1.88	$-4.00	-100.0%
2026-07	10	30.0%	2.08	$-2.87	-28.7%
2026-08	3	100.0%	2.09	+$3.28	+109.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	7	42.9%	$-2.37	-33.9%
2.0-3.0	8	25.0%	$-3.22	-40.2%
3.0-5.0	2	50.0%	+$2.00	+100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	7	57.1%	$-0.25	-3.6%
Rank 2	6	33.3%	+$0.66	+11.0%

Based on 17 of 17 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	17	35.3%	$-3.59	-21.1%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	17	35.3%	$-3.59	-21.1%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-04	GWS	4.00	+$3.00
2026-08-08	Melbourne	2.66	+$1.66
2026-07-03	Sydney under 39.5pts	2.12	+$1.12
2026-08-07	Brisbane	1.84	+$0.84
2026-08-02	Melbourne	1.78	+$0.78

Biggest losses

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-18	Under	1.01	$-1.00
2026-07-24	Melbourne	2.04	$-1.00
2026-07-05	St Kilda under 39.5pts	2.12	$-1.00
2026-06-25	Sydney	2.10	$-1.00
2026-06-26	Hawthorn	1.01	$-1.00

Generated 2026-08-11 10:31 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.