Adam Cooney

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-25 22:22 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (23 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 39.1% trails market-implied 66.5% by -27.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -54.7%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+12.8%) — trend is declining.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +12.8% (-26.4% → -13.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +4.5% (-17.7% → -13.2%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

39.1%

Avg Odds

1.84

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-3.13

ROI

-13.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-13.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

66.5%

Calibration Gap

-27.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	23	$-3.13	-13.6%
Minus best 1 bet	22	$-6.13	-27.9%
Minus best 2 bets	21	$-7.79	-37.1%
Minus best 5 bets	18	$-11.41	-63.4%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-54.7%

Prior 60d ROI

+12.8%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	10	30.0%	2.08	$-2.87	-28.7%
2026-08	8	50.0%	1.74	+$0.66	+8.2%
2026-09	5	40.0%	1.52	$-0.92	-18.4%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	13	30.8%	$-6.41	-49.3%
2.0-3.0	8	50.0%	+$1.28	+16.0%
3.0-5.0	2	50.0%	+$2.00	+100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	10	60.0%	+$1.25	+12.5%
Rank 2	5	60.0%	+$3.62	+72.4%

Based on 23 of 23 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	23	39.1%	$-3.13	-13.6%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	23	39.1%	$-3.13	-13.6%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-04	GWS	4.00	+$3.00
2026-08-08	Melbourne	2.66	+$1.66
2026-08-15	Brisbane over 39.5pts	2.38	+$1.38
2026-09-04	Geelong under 39.5pts	2.12	+$1.12
2026-07-03	Sydney under 39.5pts	2.12	+$1.12

Biggest losses

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-20	Under	1.01	$-1.00
2026-08-22	Melbourne under 39.5pts	2.24	$-1.00
2026-09-05	Under	1.01	$-1.00
2026-07-18	Under	1.01	$-1.00
2026-08-22	Adelaide	1.01	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-25 22:22 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.