Braden Howlett

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (52 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 42.3% beats market-implied 36.3% by +6.0pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 253% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -9.3% on 50 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -22.4%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+10.2%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -3.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw +5.8%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +1.2% (+4.7% → +5.8%) · Shrunk ROI: +0.3% (-3.7% → -3.4%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

42.3%

Avg Odds

4.95

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$3.04

ROI

+5.8%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-3.4%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

36.3%

Calibration Gap

+6.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	52	+$3.04	+5.8%
Minus best 1 bet	51	$-1.46	-2.9%
Minus best 2 bets	50	$-4.66	-9.3%
Minus best 5 bets	47	$-13.21	-28.1%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-22.4%

Prior 60d ROI

+10.2%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	9	55.6%	2.51	+$1.17	+13.0%
2026-08	36	41.7%	5.59	+$3.44	+9.6%
2026-09	7	28.6%	4.80	$-1.57	-22.4%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	16	75.0%	+$3.67	+22.9%
2.0-3.0	10	20.0%	$-5.58	-55.8%
3.0-5.0	10	70.0%	+$15.45	+154.5%
5.0-8.0	9	11.1%	$-3.50	-38.9%
8.0-15	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
15+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	23	60.9%	+$7.83	+34.0%
Rank 2	13	38.5%	+$2.25	+17.3%
Rank 3	4	25.0%	+$0.10	+2.5%
Rank 4-5	5	20.0%	$-1.80	-36.0%
Rank 6+	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

Based on 49 of 52 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	7	14.3%	$-1.50	-21.4%
Outside Zone	42	47.6%	+$5.88	+14.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	52	42.3%	+$3.04	+5.8%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hobart	34	47.1%	+$5.29	+15.6%
launceston	14	28.6%	$-1.82	-13.0%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 11 settled, place rate 72.7%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$5.24 (+47.6% ROI) on 11 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-16	hobart	2. Fourth Response	5.50	+$4.50
2026-08-23	launceston	2. Everything But The	4.20	+$3.20
2026-07-26	hobart	1. Crayons To Perfume	4.10	+$3.10
2026-08-09	hobart	5. My Fatal Charm	3.75	+$2.75
2026-09-23	hobart	3. Unobetter	3.70	+$2.70

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-09	hobart	3. Estella Herge	2.06	$-1.00
2026-08-23	launceston	1. Wee Georgie Wood	5.20	$-1.00
2026-09-23	hobart	3. Crayons To Perfume	2.40	$-1.00
2026-09-23	hobart	6. Sweet Amour	5.30	$-1.00
2026-08-16	hobart	8. Jillstiger	36.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.