Braden Howlett

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (4 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 75.0% beats market-implied 68.0% by +7.0pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +58.6% (-69.1% → -10.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +30.3% (-43.1% → -12.8%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

75.0%

Avg Odds

2.22

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-0.42

ROI

-10.5%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-12.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

68.0%

Calibration Gap

+7.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	4	75.0%	2.22	$-0.42	-10.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	100.0%	+$0.58	+19.3%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	3	100.0%	+$0.58	+19.3%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 4 of 4 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	3	100.0%	+$0.58	+19.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	4	75.0%	$-0.42	-10.5%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.94 (+194.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-28	hobart	1. Affamato	1.34	+$0.34
2026-06-28	hobart	4. Banjo Star	1.14	+$0.14
2026-06-28	hobart	4. Auston	1.10	+$0.10

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-28	hobart	8. Miss Collann	5.30	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.