Braden Howlett

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-29 05:15 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (49 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 46.9% beats market-implied 39.5% by +7.4pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 184% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -7.5% on 47 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -2.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw +8.6%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +18.3% (-9.8% → +8.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +8.9% (-11.2% → -2.3%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

46.9%

Avg Odds

4.75

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$4.19

ROI

+8.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-2.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

39.5%

Calibration Gap

+7.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	49	+$4.19	+8.6%
Minus best 1 bet	48	$-0.31	-0.6%
Minus best 2 bets	47	$-3.51	-7.5%
Minus best 5 bets	44	$-11.66	-26.5%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	4	75.0%	2.22	$-0.42	-10.5%
2026-07	9	55.6%	2.51	+$1.17	+13.0%
2026-08	36	41.7%	5.59	+$3.44	+9.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	17	82.4%	+$4.52	+26.6%
2.0-3.0	9	22.2%	$-4.58	-50.9%
3.0-5.0	9	66.7%	+$12.75	+141.7%
5.0-8.0	8	12.5%	$-2.50	-31.2%
8.0-15	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
15+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	21	71.4%	+$7.98	+38.0%
Rank 2	12	41.7%	+$3.25	+27.1%
Rank 3	5	20.0%	$-0.90	-18.0%
Rank 4-5	5	20.0%	$-1.80	-36.0%
Rank 6+	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

Based on 47 of 49 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	6	16.7%	$-0.50	-8.3%
Outside Zone	41	51.2%	+$5.03	+12.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	49	46.9%	+$4.19	+8.6%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hobart	31	54.8%	+$6.44	+20.8%
launceston	14	28.6%	$-1.82	-13.0%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 8 settled, place rate 87.5%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$8.41 (+105.1% ROI) on 8 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-16	hobart	2. Fourth Response	5.50	+$4.50
2026-08-23	launceston	2. Everything But The	4.20	+$3.20
2026-07-26	hobart	1. Crayons To Perfume	4.10	+$3.10
2026-08-09	hobart	5. My Fatal Charm	3.75	+$2.75
2026-08-01	launceston	3. Kaybee	3.30	+$2.30

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-09	hobart	3. Estella Herge	2.06	$-1.00
2026-08-23	launceston	1. Wee Georgie Wood	5.20	$-1.00
2026-08-16	hobart	8. Jillstiger	36.00	$-1.00
2026-08-01	launceston	1. Muzzame Mate	5.00	$-1.00
2026-06-28	hobart	8. Miss Collann	5.30	$-1.00

Generated 2026-08-29 05:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.