Lachlan Mosley

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Small sample (26 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 23.1% vs implied 24.2% (-1.1pp). Picks track market expectations. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -10.9% — a more honest expectation than the raw -6.7%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +53.2% (-60.0% → -6.7%) · Shrunk ROI: +28.5% (-39.4% → -10.9%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

23.1%

Avg Odds

8.76

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-1.75

ROI

-6.7%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-10.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

24.2%

Calibration Gap

-1.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	26	$-1.75	-6.7%
Minus best 1 bet	25	$-7.35	-29.4%
Minus best 2 bets	24	$-11.75	-49.0%
Minus best 5 bets	21	$-19.40	-92.4%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	7	14.3%	6.42	$-4.40	-62.9%
2026-07	19	26.3%	9.62	+$2.65	+13.9%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	50.0%	$-0.40	-20.0%
2.0-3.0	5	20.0%	$-2.40	-48.0%
3.0-5.0	6	33.3%	+$2.05	+34.2%
5.0-8.0	5	40.0%	+$7.00	+140.0%
8.0-15	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
15+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	3	33.3%	+$0.55	+18.3%
Rank 2	4	75.0%	+$8.70	+217.5%
Rank 3	1	100.0%	+$4.40	+440.0%
Rank 4-5	10	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	6	16.7%	$-3.40	-56.7%

Based on 24 of 26 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	100.0%	+$10.00	+500.0%
Outside Zone	22	18.2%	$-9.75	-44.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	26	23.1%	$-1.75	-6.7%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
morphettville	9	22.2%	+$3.00	+33.3%
murray bridge	9	33.3%	+$0.65	+7.2%
balaklava	5	20.0%	$-2.40	-48.0%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 12 settled, place rate 16.7%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-6.69 (-55.8% ROI) on 12 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-11	morphettville	5. Power Dancer	6.60	+$5.60
2026-07-11	morphettville	5. Willybeafactor	5.40	+$4.40
2026-07-07	murray bridge	6. Gazelle	4.50	+$3.50
2026-07-07	murray bridge	7. Rikki Rikkardo	3.55	+$2.55
2026-06-26	balaklava	10. Prancing Fool	2.60	+$1.60

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-26	balaklava	10. Prancing Fool	11.00	$-1.00
2026-07-11		3. Anotherhouse	4.90	$-1.00
2026-07-04	murray bridge	1. Free Beer	9.60	$-1.00
2026-06-26	balaklava	9. Star Serpent	9.20	$-1.00
2026-06-27	morphettville	15. Torrita	13.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.