Lachlan Mosley

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-13 04:01 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 24.2% vs implied 22.2% (+2.0pp). Picks track market expectations. 203% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -14.5% on 126 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +35.5%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-2.5%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +6.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw +13.9%.

Since last weekly snapshot: +15 new bets · ROI: +22.8% (-8.9% → +13.9%) · Shrunk ROI: +16.5% (-10.2% → +6.3%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

128

Wins

Win Rate

24.2%

Avg Odds

9.78

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$17.75

ROI

+13.9%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+6.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

22.2%

Calibration Gap

+2.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	128	+$17.75	+13.9%
Minus best 1 bet	127	$-7.25	-5.7%
Minus best 2 bets	126	$-18.25	-14.5%
Minus best 5 bets	123	$-39.35	-32.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+35.5%

Prior 60d ROI

-2.5%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	7	14.3%	6.42	$-4.40	-62.9%
2026-07	48	22.9%	8.32	$-3.34	-7.0%
2026-08	45	24.4%	9.65	+$1.14	+2.5%
2026-09	28	28.6%	13.34	+$24.35	+87.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	10	50.0%	$-1.13	-11.3%
2.0-3.0	23	47.8%	+$3.98	+17.3%
3.0-5.0	21	28.6%	+$3.50	+16.7%
5.0-8.0	28	21.4%	+$8.90	+31.8%
8.0-15	29	6.9%	$-6.50	-22.4%
15+	17	5.9%	+$9.00	+52.9%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	15	40.0%	+$1.40	+9.3%
Rank 2	22	40.9%	+$14.17	+64.4%
Rank 3	14	35.7%	+$5.15	+36.8%
Rank 4-5	28	14.3%	$-16.83	-60.1%
Rank 6+	38	15.8%	+$12.86	+33.8%

Based on 117 of 128 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	18	27.8%	+$13.40	+74.4%
Outside Zone	99	25.3%	+$3.35	+3.4%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	128	24.2%	+$17.75	+13.9%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
morphettville	41	29.3%	+$34.61	+84.4%
balaklava	7	14.3%	$-4.40	-62.9%
strathalbyn	11	18.2%	$-6.40	-58.2%
murray bridge	44	22.7%	$-15.57	-35.4%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 45 settled, place rate 33.3%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-4.94 (-11.0% ROI) on 45 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-12	morphettville	10. Fill A Promise	26.00	+$25.00
2026-08-08		1. Lomax	12.00	+$11.00
2026-07-18	morphettville	1. Big Sue	10.50	+$9.50
2026-08-22	morphettville	1. Jacks On Ice	7.00	+$6.00
2026-07-11	morphettville	5. Power Dancer	6.60	+$5.60

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-17	murray bridge	6. On Tik	11.50	$-1.00
2026-08-12	murray bridge	5. Tully Hart	4.50	$-1.00
2026-09-12	morphettville	13. De Luca	5.50	$-1.00
2026-06-26	balaklava	10. Prancing Fool	11.00	$-1.00
2026-08-22		10. Percidian	15.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-13 04:01 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.