Lachlan Mosley

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-28 08:33 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 24.7% vs implied 23.4% (+1.3pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -33.2%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+18.4%) — trend is declining.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -1.2% (+0.2% → -1.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -1.2% (-2.4% → -3.6%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

178

Wins

Win Rate

24.7%

Avg Odds

8.96

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-1.79

ROI

-1.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-3.6%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

23.4%

Calibration Gap

+1.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	178	$-1.79	-1.0%
Minus best 1 bet	177	$-26.79	-15.1%
Minus best 2 bets	176	$-37.79	-21.5%
Minus best 5 bets	173	$-55.99	-32.4%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-33.2%

Prior 60d ROI

+18.4%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-08	45	24.4%	9.65	+$1.14	+2.5%
2026-09	68	26.5%	10.23	+$17.30	+25.4%
2026-10	65	23.1%	7.15	$-20.23	-31.1%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	16	62.5%	+$1.02	+6.4%
2.0-3.0	34	44.1%	+$2.64	+7.8%
3.0-5.0	28	35.7%	+$11.75	+42.0%
5.0-8.0	46	15.2%	$-1.20	-2.6%
8.0-15	27	3.7%	$-15.00	-55.6%
15+	27	3.7%	$-1.00	-3.7%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	19	57.9%	+$11.58	+60.9%
Rank 2	28	39.3%	+$13.35	+47.7%
Rank 3	24	25.0%	$-5.41	-22.5%
Rank 4-5	37	21.6%	$-13.97	-37.8%
Rank 6+	53	13.2%	$-2.34	-4.4%

Based on 161 of 178 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	25	16.0%	+$1.40	+5.6%
Outside Zone	136	28.7%	+$1.81	+1.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	178	24.7%	$-1.79	-1.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
morphettville	36	25.0%	+$18.70	+51.9%
balaklava	12	33.3%	+$1.68	+14.0%
gawler	19	31.6%	+$1.13	+5.9%
halidon	6	33.3%	$-1.82	-30.3%
mount gambier	6	33.3%	$-2.63	-43.8%
murray bridge	38	23.7%	$-7.49	-19.7%
strathalbyn	20	20.0%	$-10.15	-50.7%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 43 settled, place rate 37.2%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-3.25 (-7.6% ROI) on 43 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-12	morphettville	10. Fill A Promise	26.00	+$25.00
2026-08-08		1. Lomax	12.00	+$11.00
2026-10-03	murray bridge	8. Churchill Rose	7.20	+$6.20
2026-08-22	morphettville	1. Jacks On Ice	7.00	+$6.00
2026-09-16	balaklava	12. Geetee Forty	7.00	+$6.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-10-17	morphettville	8. Autumn Deel	27.00	$-1.00
2026-09-19	morphettville	1. Arugamama	19.50	$-1.00
2026-08-12	murray bridge	5. Tully Hart	4.50	$-1.00
2026-10-11	halidon	5. Hard Prince	2.10	$-1.00
2026-09-12	morphettville	13. De Luca	5.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-28 08:33 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.