Lachlan Mosley

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (7 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 42.9% beats market-implied 28.9% by +14.0pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 175% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -55.2% on 5 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

42.9%

Avg Odds

4.48

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$3.70

ROI

+52.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

28.9%

Calibration Gap

+14.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	7	42.9%	4.48	+$3.70	+52.9%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	3	66.7%	+$1.90	+63.3%
3.0-5.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	1	100.0%	+$4.80	+480.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	7	42.9%	+$3.70	+52.9%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
balaklava	7	42.9%	+$3.70	+52.9%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-03	balaklava	2. Serinite Illusion	5.80	+$4.80
2026-03-03	balaklava	5. Winny Bee	2.66	+$1.66
2026-03-04	balaklava	2. Serinite Illusion	2.24	+$1.24

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-03	balaklava	13. Mahaler	2.06	$-1.00
2026-03-03	balaklava	13. Mahaler	4.60	$-1.00
2026-03-03	balaklava	5. Winny Bee	9.40	$-1.00
2026-03-03	balaklava	4. Golden Tunes	4.60	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.