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Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (51 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 33.3% trails market-implied 41.4% by -8.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -17.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -22.4%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -7.7% (-14.7% → -22.4%) · Shrunk ROI: -3.6% (-14.2% → -17.7%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

33.3%

Avg Odds

6.67

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-11.41

ROI

-22.4%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-17.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

41.4%

Calibration Gap

-8.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	51	$-11.41	-22.4%
Minus best 1 bet	50	$-14.71	-29.4%
Minus best 2 bets	49	$-17.36	-35.4%
Minus best 5 bets	46	$-22.83	-49.6%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	17	35.3%	8.00	$-2.52	-14.8%
2026-07	34	32.4%	6.01	$-8.89	-26.1%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	20	45.0%	$-4.03	-20.1%
2.0-3.0	9	55.6%	+$3.32	+36.9%
3.0-5.0	6	50.0%	+$5.30	+88.3%
5.0-8.0	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
15+	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	15	60.0%	+$0.97	+6.5%
Rank 2	24	33.3%	$-0.38	-1.6%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	10	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%

Based on 51 of 51 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	10	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	41	41.5%	$-1.41	-3.4%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	51	33.3%	$-11.41	-22.4%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-03	Roman Safiullin	4.30	+$3.30
2026-07-01	Marton Fucsovics	3.65	+$2.65
2026-06-24	Ekaterina Alexandrova	3.35	+$2.35
2026-06-25	Vilius Gaubas	2.66	+$1.66
2026-06-30	Yannick Hanfmann	2.46	+$1.46

Biggest losses

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-29	Harriet Dart	3.95	$-1.00
2026-07-03	Jenson Brooksby	21.00	$-1.00
2026-06-29	Yulia Putintseva	6.80	$-1.00
2026-07-01	Djokovic 3-0	2.56	$-1.00
2026-07-04	A Anisimova	1.01	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.