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Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-18 22:27 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 31.7% trails market-implied 51.9% by -20.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -15.3%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-36.7%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -25.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -28.5%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -1.6% (-27.0% → -28.5%) · Shrunk ROI: -0.8% (-24.6% → -25.5%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-57.65
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-25.5%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
51.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 202 | $-57.65 | -28.5% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 201 | $-62.25 | -31.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 200 | $-65.65 | -32.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 197 | $-74.90 | -38.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 17 | 23.5% | 2.03 | $-9.27 | -54.5% |
| 2026-08 | 64 | 39.1% | 2.97 | $-5.08 | -7.9% |
| 2026-09 | 72 | 22.2% | 4.12 | $-36.58 | -50.8% |
| 2026-10 | 49 | 38.8% | 2.54 | $-6.72 | -13.7% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 104 | 30.8% | $-49.54 | -47.6% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 50 | 42.0% | $-1.46 | -2.9% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 29 | 34.5% | +$6.75 | +23.3% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 10 | 10.0% | $-4.40 | -44.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 47 | 40.4% | $-15.41 | -32.8% |
| Rank 2 | 98 | 35.7% | $-2.32 | -2.4% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 52 | 17.3% | $-36.66 | -70.5% |
Based on 202 of 202 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 14 | 7.1% | $-8.40 | -60.0% |
| Outside Zone | 188 | 33.5% | $-49.25 | -26.2% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| hub_playwright | 147 | 26.5% | $-51.35 | -34.9% |
| payload | 55 | 45.5% | $-6.30 | -11.5% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 13 | 30.8% | $-4.76 | -36.6% |
| Wed | 10 | 50.0% | +$1.58 | +15.8% |
| Thu | 15 | 33.3% | $-5.44 | -36.3% |
| Fri | 15 | 60.0% | +$1.02 | +6.8% |
| Sat | 2 | 100.0% | +$1.30 | +65.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-31 | | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 5.60 | +$4.60 |
| 2026-08-05 | | Catherine Mcnally | 4.40 | +$3.40 |
| 2026-10-07 | | Elise Mertens | 4.40 | +$3.40 |
| 2026-10-06 | | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 4.10 | +$3.10 |
| 2026-08-19 | | Flavio Cobolli | 3.75 | +$2.75 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-10-07 | | Coleman Wong | 2.14 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | | Coleman Wong for | 1.96 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | | Alexei Popyrin | 2.52 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | | Borges | 1.01 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-04 | | Donna Vekic | 1.79 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-18 22:27 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.