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Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-02 04:51 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 33.3% trails market-implied 47.5% by -14.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +0.3%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-34.9%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.

Since last weekly snapshot: +13 new bets · ROI: +3.3% (-23.9% → -20.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +2.1% (-20.6% → -18.5%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

126

Wins

Win Rate

33.3%

Avg Odds

4.22

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-25.99

ROI

-20.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-18.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

47.5%

Calibration Gap

-14.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	126	$-25.99	-20.6%
Minus best 1 bet	125	$-30.59	-24.5%
Minus best 2 bets	124	$-33.99	-27.4%
Minus best 5 bets	121	$-42.69	-35.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+0.3%

Prior 60d ROI

-34.9%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	17	35.3%	8.00	$-2.52	-14.8%
2026-07	58	27.6%	4.38	$-23.63	-40.7%
2026-08	47	38.3%	2.72	$-0.98	-2.1%
2026-09	4	50.0%	3.44	+$1.14	+28.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	54	33.3%	$-23.07	-42.7%
2.0-3.0	34	44.1%	+$0.58	+1.7%
3.0-5.0	16	50.0%	+$12.90	+80.6%
5.0-8.0	11	9.1%	$-5.40	-49.1%
8.0-15	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
15+	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	37	45.9%	$-7.93	-21.4%
Rank 2	66	37.9%	+$4.94	+7.5%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	21	0.0%	$-21.00	-100.0%

Based on 126 of 126 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	16	6.2%	$-10.40	-65.0%
Outside Zone	110	37.3%	$-15.59	-14.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	126	33.3%	$-25.99	-20.6%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-31	Stefanos Tsitsipas	5.60	+$4.60
2026-08-05	Catherine Mcnally	4.40	+$3.40
2026-07-03	Roman Safiullin	4.30	+$3.30
2026-08-19	Flavio Cobolli	3.75	+$2.75
2026-07-01	Marton Fucsovics	3.65	+$2.65

Biggest losses

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-29	Harriet Dart	3.95	$-1.00
2026-08-04	Donna Vekic	1.79	$-1.00
2026-08-07	Alexei Popyrin	1.80	$-1.00
2026-07-03	Jenson Brooksby	21.00	$-1.00
2026-08-04	Elena-Gabriela Ruse	2.14	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-02 04:51 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.