Kristen Manning

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (7 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 42.9% beats market-implied 37.6% by +5.3pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -16.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw -39.3%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: — · Shrunk ROI: —

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

42.9%

Avg Odds

6.04

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-2.75

ROI

-39.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-16.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

37.6%

Calibration Gap

+5.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-08	7	42.9%	6.04	$-2.75	-39.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	100.0%	+$1.25	+41.7%
5.0-8.0	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	3	100.0%	+$1.25	+41.7%
Rank 3	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 7 of 7 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	5	60.0%	$-0.75	-15.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	7	42.9%	$-2.75	-39.3%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	1	100.0%	+$0.40	+40.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.21 (+21.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-14	warracknabeal	Cute Girl	1.50	+$0.50
2026-08-07	mildura	Glouf	1.40	+$0.40
2026-08-07	mildura	Glouf	1.35	+$0.35

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-08	caulfield	Stylish Sparkle	7.00	$-1.00
2026-08-07	townsville	Stylish Sparkle	18.00	$-1.00
2026-08-08	mildura	Stylish Sparkle	7.00	$-1.00
2026-08-14	warracknabeal	Raging Monkey	6.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.