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Sky Racing - Matt Robertson
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 41.0% trails market-implied 52.8% by -11.8pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +8.7% (-26.4% → -17.7%) · Shrunk ROI: +7.6% (-23.7% → -16.1%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-17.69
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-16.1%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
52.8%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 100 | $-17.69 | -17.7% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 99 | $-22.19 | -22.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 98 | $-24.84 | -25.3% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 95 | $-32.29 | -34.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 19 | 36.8% | 2.70 | $-0.93 | -4.9% |
| 2026-05 | 38 | 42.1% | 2.55 | $-4.99 | -13.1% |
| 2026-06 | 35 | 40.0% | 2.10 | $-12.15 | -34.7% |
| 2026-07 | 8 | 50.0% | 2.55 | +$0.38 | +4.7% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 41 | 56.1% | $-10.02 | -24.4% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 31 | 38.7% | $-2.32 | -7.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 25 | 20.0% | $-7.85 | -31.4% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 2 | 50.0% | +$3.50 | +175.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 28 | 53.6% | $-3.40 | -12.1% |
| Rank 2 | 15 | 33.3% | $-1.19 | -7.9% |
| Rank 3 | 8 | 12.5% | $-5.76 | -72.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 6 | 50.0% | $-1.12 | -18.7% |
| Rank 6+ | 3 | 33.3% | $-1.98 | -66.0% |
Based on 60 of 100 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 60 | 41.7% | $-13.45 | -22.4% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 100 | 41.0% | $-17.69 | -17.7% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| launceston | 51 | 41.2% | $-6.45 | -12.6% |
| hobart | 49 | 40.8% | $-11.24 | -22.9% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Fri | 20 | 30.0% | $-8.54 | -42.7% |
| Sun | 80 | 43.8% | $-9.15 | -11.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 6 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.46 (-41.0% ROI) on 6 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-25 | launceston | Miki Sanz | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-05-30 | hobart | We Salute You | 3.65 | +$2.65 |
| 2026-05-24 | launceston | Bettablack Tiger | 3.65 | +$2.65 |
| 2026-05-15 | launceston | Alby Priddy | 3.45 | +$2.45 |
| 2026-04-25 | launceston | Ollies Medal | 3.35 | +$2.35 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-20 | launceston | Our Sweet Trixie | 4.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | launceston | Calzo Sniper | 1.22 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-11 | hobart | Everything But The | 2.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-11 | hobart | Snowiewillrev | 2.34 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | launceston | Cee Tee Chelsea | 2.98 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.