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Sky Racing - Matt Robertson
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 41.3% trails market-implied 58.9% by -17.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +6.8%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-35.4%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-22.96
Implied Win % (1/odds)
58.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 109 | $-22.96 | -21.1% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 108 | $-27.46 | -25.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 107 | $-30.11 | -28.1% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 104 | $-37.56 | -36.1% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 49 | 40.8% | 1.76 | $-18.85 | -38.5% |
| 2026-04 | 30 | 40.0% | 2.83 | $-0.73 | -2.4% |
| 2026-05 | 30 | 43.3% | 2.49 | $-3.38 | -11.3% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 57 | 50.9% | $-18.60 | -32.6% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 23 | 39.1% | $-1.56 | -6.8% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 23 | 26.1% | $-2.30 | -10.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 6 | 16.7% | $-0.50 | -8.3% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 6 | 50.0% | $-0.72 | -12.0% |
| Rank 2 | 2 | 50.0% | +$1.65 | +82.5% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 9 of 109 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 9 | 44.4% | $-0.07 | -0.8% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 109 | 41.3% | $-22.96 | -21.1% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| burnie | 7 | 42.9% | $-3.94 | -56.3% |
| launceston | 53 | 43.4% | $-4.67 | -8.8% |
| hobart | 49 | 38.8% | $-14.35 | -29.3% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 14 | 42.9% | $-3.26 | -23.3% |
| Fri | 44 | 36.4% | $-16.26 | -37.0% |
| Sun | 51 | 45.1% | $-3.44 | -6.7% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.34 (+34.0% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-25 | launceston | Miki Sanz | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-03-24 | hobart | Zoe Ella | 3.65 | +$2.65 |
| 2026-05-24 | launceston | Bettablack Tiger | 3.65 | +$2.65 |
| 2026-05-15 | launceston | Alby Priddy | 3.45 | +$2.45 |
| 2026-04-09 | hobart | Just Lika Dream | 3.35 | +$2.35 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-14 | hobart | Mr Bondi | 1.03 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-12 | burnie | The Chancer | 1.01 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | launceston | Calzo Sniper | 1.22 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-14 | hobart | Sue Nien | 1.02 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-24 | hobart | Captain Cheddar | 4.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.