Sam Lyons

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 18.1% trails market-implied 31.5% by -13.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -39.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw -57.2%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -28.6% (-28.6% → -57.2%) · Shrunk ROI: -14.3% (-24.8% → -39.1%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

18.1%

Avg Odds

3.88

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-41.20

ROI

-57.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-39.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

31.5%

Calibration Gap

-13.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	72	$-41.20	-57.2%
Minus best 1 bet	71	$-45.70	-64.4%
Minus best 2 bets	70	$-48.20	-68.9%
Minus best 5 bets	67	$-53.00	-79.1%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-51.1%

Prior 60d ROI

-64.8%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	31	12.9%	4.32	$-19.75	-63.7%
2026-09	34	26.5%	3.63	$-14.45	-42.5%
2026-10	7	0.0%	3.15	$-7.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	7	85.7%	+$2.80	+40.0%
2.0-3.0	18	22.2%	$-9.20	-51.1%
3.0-5.0	31	6.5%	$-24.30	-78.4%
5.0-8.0	12	8.3%	$-6.50	-54.2%
8.0-15	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	37	32.4%	$-9.70	-26.2%
Rank 2	22	4.5%	$-18.50	-84.1%
Rank 3	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 72 of 72 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	9	11.1%	$-3.50	-38.9%
Outside Zone	63	19.0%	$-37.70	-59.8%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	72	18.1%	$-41.20	-57.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
tatura	8	37.5%	$-0.40	-5.0%
southside cranbourne	7	14.3%	$-1.50	-21.4%
bet365 hamilton	8	25.0%	$-2.95	-36.9%
bet365 park kilmore	6	16.7%	$-4.40	-73.3%
moe	7	14.3%	$-5.20	-74.3%
bet365 mildura	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%
bet365 bairnsdale	9	11.1%	$-7.35	-81.7%
warrnambool	16	18.8%	$-9.90	-61.9%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	39	23.1%	$-19.30	-49.5%
Tue	14	7.1%	$-12.20	-87.1%
Thu	15	13.3%	$-7.20	-48.0%
Sat	4	25.0%	$-2.50	-62.5%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 80.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.07 (+21.3% ROI) on 5 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-16	southside cranbourne	Touxlove	5.50	+$4.50
2026-09-14	bet365 hamilton	Racey Casey	3.50	+$2.50
2026-09-07	tatura	Of The View	3.20	+$2.20
2026-07-23	warrnambool	Always Free	2.30	+$1.30
2026-09-07	tatura	Prestige Zerprise	2.30	+$1.30

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-07	tatura	Ottalaus	3.50	$-1.00
2026-07-21	moe	Trangoojahray	2.50	$-1.00
2026-07-21	moe	Galactic Girl	2.90	$-1.00
2026-09-28	bet365 park kilmore	Razanne	4.20	$-1.00
2026-09-07	tatura	Kastun Star	4.20	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.