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Sam Lyons
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 30.4% vs implied 30.9% (-0.5pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -21.2%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+2.4%) — trend is declining.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-9.66
Implied Win % (1/odds)
30.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 69 | $-9.66 | -14.0% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 68 | $-13.66 | -20.1% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 67 | $-17.62 | -26.3% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 64 | $-28.02 | -43.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 7 | 28.6% | 3.50 | $-0.40 | -5.7% |
| 2026-04 | 30 | 33.3% | 3.75 | $-5.70 | -19.0% |
| 2026-05 | 32 | 28.1% | 4.41 | $-3.56 | -11.1% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 7 | 85.7% | +$6.04 | +86.3% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 16 | 43.8% | +$1.30 | +8.1% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 29 | 24.1% | $-3.00 | -10.3% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 12 | 8.3% | $-9.00 | -75.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 2 | 50.0% | $-0.35 | -17.5% |
| Rank 2 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 5 of 69 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 4 | 25.0% | $-2.35 | -58.8% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 69 | 30.4% | $-9.66 | -14.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| bet365 echuca | 16 | 43.8% | +$2.23 | +13.9% |
| ladbrokes geelong | 7 | 28.6% | +$0.31 | +4.4% |
| bet365 park kilmore | 8 | 25.0% | $-0.20 | -2.5% |
| ararat | 7 | 28.6% | $-0.40 | -5.7% |
| donald | 6 | 33.3% | $-1.05 | -17.5% |
| mornington | 8 | 25.0% | $-2.40 | -30.0% |
| bet365 stawell | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.35 | -67.0% |
| bet365 swan hill | 8 | 25.0% | $-4.20 | -52.5% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 21 | 28.6% | $-3.27 | -15.6% |
| Tue | 29 | 27.6% | $-8.05 | -27.8% |
| Thu | 12 | 41.7% | +$1.35 | +11.2% |
| Fri | 7 | 28.6% | +$0.31 | +4.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.10 (+10.3% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-04 | bet365 park kilmore | Come Along Jeffrey | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | ladbrokes geelong | Fenestella | 1.85 | +$3.96 |
| 2026-05-04 | bet365 park kilmore | Miss Deceiver | 4.80 | +$3.80 |
| 2026-05-11 | bet365 echuca | Till Queen | 4.40 | +$3.40 |
| 2026-04-21 | bet365 swan hill | Maximillius | 4.20 | +$3.20 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-04 | bet365 park kilmore | Cumulate | 3.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | bet365 swan hill | Got Out The Fence | 5.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-14 | donald | Allinthetiming | 3.10 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | bet365 echuca | Shaw Can Fly | 4.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | mornington | Terrax | 4.20 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.