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Sam Lyons
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 28.3% trails market-implied 31.7% by -3.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -41.4%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-9.0%) — trend is declining.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -4.5% (-16.6% → -21.1%) · Shrunk ROI: -2.9% (-15.4% → -18.4%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-20.86
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-18.4%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
31.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 99 | $-20.86 | -21.1% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 98 | $-24.86 | -25.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 97 | $-28.82 | -29.7% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 94 | $-39.62 | -42.1% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 24 | 33.3% | 3.56 | $-4.65 | -19.4% |
| 2026-05 | 32 | 28.1% | 4.41 | $-3.56 | -11.1% |
| 2026-06 | 22 | 27.3% | 3.97 | $-4.15 | -18.9% |
| 2026-07 | 21 | 23.8% | 4.60 | $-8.50 | -40.5% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 16 | 56.2% | +$2.24 | +14.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 19 | 42.1% | +$0.20 | +1.1% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 41 | 24.4% | $-3.30 | -8.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 14 | 7.1% | $-11.00 | -78.6% |
| 8.0-15 | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 31 | 32.3% | $-7.30 | -23.5% |
| Rank 2 | 7 | 14.3% | $-3.30 | -47.1% |
| Rank 3 | 4 | 25.0% | +$0.60 | +15.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 48 of 99 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 44 | 27.3% | $-12.00 | -27.3% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 99 | 28.3% | $-20.86 | -21.1% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| donald | 6 | 50.0% | +$2.65 | +44.2% |
| bet365 echuca | 16 | 43.8% | +$2.23 | +13.9% |
| bet365 park kilmore | 8 | 25.0% | $-0.20 | -2.5% |
| mornington | 8 | 25.0% | $-2.40 | -30.0% |
| ladbrokes geelong | 16 | 25.0% | $-2.69 | -16.8% |
| bet365 stawell | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.35 | -67.0% |
| bet365 swan hill | 8 | 25.0% | $-4.20 | -52.5% |
| southside pakenham synthetic | 16 | 18.8% | $-6.80 | -42.5% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 46 | 21.7% | $-17.42 | -37.9% |
| Tue | 22 | 31.8% | $-3.95 | -18.0% |
| Thu | 12 | 41.7% | +$1.35 | +11.2% |
| Fri | 19 | 31.6% | $-0.84 | -4.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 80.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.25 (-4.9% ROI) on 5 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-04 | bet365 park kilmore | Come Along Jeffrey | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | ladbrokes geelong | Fenestella | 1.85 | +$3.96 |
| 2026-05-04 | bet365 park kilmore | Miss Deceiver | 4.80 | +$3.80 |
| 2026-06-09 | donald | Palazzo Dama | 4.60 | +$3.60 |
| 2026-05-11 | bet365 echuca | Till Queen | 4.40 | +$3.40 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-04 | bet365 park kilmore | Cumulate | 3.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | bet365 swan hill | Got Out The Fence | 5.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-06-29 | southside pakenham synthe | Vegas Missile | 1.75 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | bet365 echuca | Shaw Can Fly | 4.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | mornington | Terrax | 4.20 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.