Sky Racing - Craig Morrison

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (50 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 24.0% trails market-implied 32.0% by -8.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -4.9%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-29.8%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

24.0%

Avg Odds

4.06

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-8.66

ROI

-17.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.0%

Calibration Gap

-8.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	50	$-8.66	-17.3%
Minus best 1 bet	49	$-14.06	-28.7%
Minus best 2 bets	48	$-18.76	-39.1%
Minus best 5 bets	45	$-28.76	-63.9%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-4.9%

Prior 60d ROI

-29.8%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	18	16.7%	3.93	$-3.00	-16.7%
2026-04	20	25.0%	4.35	$-3.20	-16.0%
2026-05	12	33.3%	3.77	$-2.46	-20.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	6	33.3%	$-2.76	-46.0%
2.0-3.0	15	26.7%	$-5.60	-37.3%
3.0-5.0	15	20.0%	$-3.40	-22.7%
5.0-8.0	8	37.5%	+$9.10	+113.8%
8.0-15	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	50	24.0%	$-8.66	-17.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
albany	50	24.0%	$-8.66	-17.3%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Thu	22	27.3%	+$0.52	+2.4%
Fri	7	42.9%	+$1.02	+14.6%
Sun	21	14.3%	$-10.20	-48.6%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-26	albany	Gingers Sister	6.40	+$5.40
2026-04-26	albany	Miss Rompin	5.70	+$4.70
2026-03-26	albany	Makin Prophets	5.00	+$4.00
2026-05-15	albany	We Love Charlie	4.10	+$3.10
2026-04-16	albany	Gingers Sister	3.90	+$2.90

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-19	albany	Pure Chino	8.60	$-1.00
2026-04-26	albany	Storm Commander	9.00	$-1.00
2026-05-07	albany	Sea Of Galilee	5.60	$-1.00
2026-03-19	albany	Acoustic Bubbles	2.54	$-1.00
2026-04-16	albany	Renovation Show	2.54	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.