Sky Racing - Craig Morrison

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Small sample (25 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 32.0% vs implied 32.5% (-0.5pp). Picks track market expectations. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -10.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -4.9%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +18.1% (-23.0% → -4.9%) · Shrunk ROI: +8.9% (-19.2% → -10.3%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

32.0%

Avg Odds

3.88

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-1.22

ROI

-4.9%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-10.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.5%

Calibration Gap

-0.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	25	$-1.22	-4.9%
Minus best 1 bet	24	$-5.92	-24.7%
Minus best 2 bets	23	$-9.02	-39.2%
Minus best 5 bets	20	$-14.66	-73.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	13	30.8%	3.98	+$1.24	+9.5%
2026-05	12	33.3%	3.77	$-2.46	-20.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	66.7%	+$0.24	+8.0%
2.0-3.0	8	37.5%	$-1.16	-14.5%
3.0-5.0	8	25.0%	+$0.00	+0.0%
5.0-8.0	4	25.0%	+$1.70	+42.5%
8.0-15	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	25	32.0%	$-1.22	-4.9%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
albany	25	32.0%	$-1.22	-4.9%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Thu	10	30.0%	$-2.48	-24.8%
Fri	7	42.9%	+$1.02	+14.6%
Sun	8	25.0%	+$0.24	+3.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-26	albany	Miss Rompin	5.70	+$4.70
2026-05-15	albany	We Love Charlie	4.10	+$3.10
2026-04-16	albany	Gingers Sister	3.90	+$2.90
2026-04-26	albany	Aurora Queen	2.54	+$1.54
2026-05-15	albany	Pincer Movement	2.20	+$1.20

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-26	albany	Storm Commander	9.00	$-1.00
2026-05-07	albany	Sea Of Galilee	5.60	$-1.00
2026-04-16	albany	Renovation Show	2.54	$-1.00
2026-04-26	albany	Cruise To Rio	5.70	$-1.00
2026-04-26	albany	Eternally Yours	1.78	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.