Tom Haylock

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-26 22:32 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (18 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 33.3% beats market-implied 24.8% by +8.5pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 152% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -41.8% on 16 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +9.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw +71.2%.

Since last weekly snapshot: +3 new bets · ROI: -36.4% (+107.5% → +71.2%) · Shrunk ROI: -5.5% (+14.8% → +9.3%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

33.3%

Avg Odds

10.38

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$12.81

ROI

+71.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+9.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

24.8%

Calibration Gap

+8.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	18	+$12.81	+71.2%
Minus best 1 bet	17	$-1.69	-9.9%
Minus best 2 bets	16	$-6.69	-41.8%
Minus best 5 bets	13	$-11.43	-87.9%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	1	100.0%	6.00	+$5.00	+500.0%
2026-08	3	0.0%	7.93	$-3.00	-100.0%
2026-09	14	35.7%	11.22	+$10.81	+77.2%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	100.0%	+$2.61	+87.0%
2.0-3.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	5	20.0%	$-1.30	-26.0%
5.0-8.0	2	50.0%	+$4.00	+200.0%
15+	6	16.7%	+$9.50	+158.3%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	6	50.0%	$-0.39	-6.5%
Rank 2	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	3	33.3%	+$3.00	+100.0%
Rank 6+	7	28.6%	+$12.20	+174.3%

Based on 18 of 18 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	3	33.3%	+$3.00	+100.0%
Outside Zone	15	33.3%	+$9.81	+65.4%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	18	33.3%	+$12.81	+71.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
flemington	6	50.0%	+$14.77	+246.2%
caulfield	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 7 settled, place rate 42.9%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.02 (-0.3% ROI) on 7 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-12	flemington	11. Welcometotheshow	15.50	+$14.50
2026-07-25	randwick	6. Hawker Hall	6.00	+$5.00
2026-09-12	flemington	11. Welcometotheshow	3.70	+$2.70
2026-09-19		Over 2.5 Goals	1.88	+$1.14
2026-09-24	rosehill	1. Blue Door	1.90	+$0.90

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-26		1. Farnicle	6.80	$-1.00
2026-09-19	caulfield	10. Bridal Waltz	2.16	$-1.00
2026-09-12	flemington	7. Disneck	40.00	$-1.00
2026-09-26		1. Private Eye	4.70	$-1.00
2026-09-12	flemington	9. Recon	19.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-26 22:32 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.