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Tom Haylock
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-12 10:41 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (2 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 100.0% beats market-implied 30.9% by +69.1pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -0.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw +311.0%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +85.9% (+225.1% → +311.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -13.0% (+12.5% → -0.5%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$6.22
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-0.5%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
30.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.22 | +$1.22 | +122.0% |
| 2026-07 | 1 | 100.0% | 6.00 | +$5.00 | +500.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 1 | 100.0% | +$1.22 | +122.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 1 | 100.0% | +$5.00 | +500.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 3 | 1 | 100.0% | +$5.00 | +500.0% |
Based on 1 of 2 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 100.0% | +$5.00 | +500.0% |
By source
(no source data)
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
(no day-of-week data)
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-25 | randwick | 6. Hawker Hall | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | | 2. Sun God | 2.22 | +$1.22 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| No losses |
Generated 2026-08-12 10:41 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.