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Tim Edwards
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 26.9% vs implied 27.2% (-0.3pp). Picks track market expectations. 131% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -5.3% on 128 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -2.6%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+36.5%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +8.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw +16.9%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +13.4% (+3.5% → +16.9%) · Shrunk ROI: +8.5% (+0.1% → +8.6%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$22.03
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
+8.6%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
27.2%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 130 | +$22.03 | +16.9% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 129 | +$4.26 | +3.3% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 128 | $-6.74 | -5.3% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 125 | $-27.24 | -21.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 17 | 29.4% | 4.25 | +$18.85 | +110.9% |
| 2026-05 | 57 | 28.1% | 4.70 | $-2.31 | -4.1% |
| 2026-06 | 56 | 25.0% | 4.69 | +$5.49 | +9.8% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 12 | 25.0% | $-8.75 | -72.9% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 16 | 37.5% | +$6.01 | +37.6% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 55 | 29.1% | $-10.30 | -18.7% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 35 | 22.9% | +$26.57 | +75.9% |
| 8.0-15 | 12 | 16.7% | +$8.50 | +70.8% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 34 | 29.4% | $-6.41 | -18.9% |
| Rank 2 | 17 | 52.9% | +$17.80 | +104.7% |
| Rank 3 | 10 | 20.0% | +$0.80 | +8.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 11 | 9.1% | $-3.50 | -31.8% |
| Rank 6+ | 10 | 40.0% | +$21.80 | +218.0% |
Based on 82 of 130 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 13 | 30.8% | +$9.50 | +73.1% |
| Outside Zone | 69 | 31.9% | +$20.99 | +30.4% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 130 | 26.9% | +$22.03 | +16.9% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| balaklava | 24 | 45.8% | +$28.80 | +120.0% |
| thomas farms rc murray bridge | 9 | 44.4% | +$12.40 | +137.8% |
| morphettville | 42 | 23.8% | +$3.04 | +7.2% |
| morphettville parks | 25 | 28.0% | +$2.00 | +8.0% |
| sportsbet gawler | 6 | 16.7% | $-2.80 | -46.7% |
| mount gambier | 8 | 12.5% | $-6.65 | -83.1% |
| strathalbyn | 16 | 6.2% | $-14.76 | -92.2% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 8 | 12.5% | $-6.76 | -84.5% |
| Wed | 22 | 36.4% | +$10.35 | +47.0% |
| Fri | 8 | 37.5% | +$5.00 | +62.5% |
| Sat | 76 | 27.6% | +$17.44 | +22.9% |
| Sun | 16 | 12.5% | $-4.00 | -25.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 6 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.47 (-7.8% ROI) on 6 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-25 | morphettville | Cilacap | 6.00 | +$17.77 |
| 2026-06-20 | morphettville | Sir Leapalot | 12.00 | +$11.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | balaklava | Impending Diamond | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-05-23 | thomas farms rc murray br | Flash Alice | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-05-23 | thomas farms rc murray br | I Catchem Fox | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-02 | morphettville | Sea What I See | 1.90 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | morphettville | Grinzinger Halo | 4.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-09 | morphettville | Extragalactic | 4.80 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | morphettville | Pretty Baby | 4.40 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-02 | morphettville | Rohesia | 3.00 | $-3.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.