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Tim Edwards
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 25.6% vs implied 27.5% (-1.9pp). Picks track market expectations. 288% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -18.0% on 88 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -4.1%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+32.6%) — trend is declining.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$8.44
Implied Win % (1/odds)
27.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 90 | +$8.44 | +9.4% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 89 | $-9.33 | -10.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 88 | $-15.83 | -18.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 85 | $-32.33 | -38.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 33 | 21.2% | 4.12 | +$10.75 | +32.6% |
| 2026-05 | 57 | 28.1% | 4.70 | $-2.31 | -4.1% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 7 | 14.3% | $-6.34 | -90.6% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 14 | 42.9% | +$8.21 | +58.6% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 38 | 21.1% | $-24.00 | -63.2% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 24 | 33.3% | +$37.57 | +156.5% |
| 8.0-15 | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 8 | 50.0% | +$4.40 | +55.0% |
| Rank 2 | 9 | 55.6% | +$8.60 | +95.6% |
| Rank 3 | 2 | 50.0% | +$4.00 | +200.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 4 | 25.0% | +$3.50 | +87.5% |
| Rank 6+ | 3 | 33.3% | +$4.50 | +150.0% |
Based on 26 of 90 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 5 | 60.0% | +$12.50 | +250.0% |
| Outside Zone | 21 | 42.9% | +$12.50 | +59.5% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 90 | 25.6% | +$8.44 | +9.4% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| balaklava | 15 | 53.3% | +$20.70 | +138.0% |
| thomas farms rc murray bridge | 9 | 44.4% | +$12.40 | +137.8% |
| morphettville parks | 8 | 25.0% | $-0.20 | -2.5% |
| sportsbet gawler | 6 | 16.7% | $-2.80 | -46.7% |
| strathalbyn | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
| morphettville | 44 | 18.2% | $-13.66 | -31.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 21 | 42.9% | +$17.90 | +85.2% |
| Sat | 61 | 23.0% | $-1.46 | -2.4% |
| Sun | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 66.7%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.27 (+9.0% ROI) on 3 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-25 | morphettville | Cilacap | 6.00 | +$17.77 |
| 2026-05-23 | thomas farms rc murray br | Flash Alice | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-05-23 | thomas farms rc murray br | I Catchem Fox | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-05-20 | balaklava | Canny Defense | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | balaklava | Babayka | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-02 | morphettville | Sea What I See | 1.90 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | morphettville | Grinzinger Halo | 4.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-09 | morphettville | Extragalactic | 4.80 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | morphettville | Pretty Baby | 4.40 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-02 | morphettville | Rohesia | 3.00 | $-3.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.