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Tim Edwards
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 18.7% trails market-implied 29.3% by -10.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -46.9%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-31.8%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -28.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw -35.9%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -31.5% (-4.4% → -35.9%) · Shrunk ROI: -22.7% (-5.9% → -28.6%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-38.37
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-28.6%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
29.3%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 107 | $-38.37 | -35.9% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 106 | $-45.87 | -43.3% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 105 | $-50.37 | -48.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 102 | $-60.57 | -59.4% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 36 | 25.0% | 4.25 | $-4.67 | -13.0% |
| 2026-08 | 33 | 18.2% | 4.24 | $-15.10 | -45.8% |
| 2026-09 | 24 | 20.8% | 3.98 | $-4.60 | -19.2% |
| 2026-10 | 14 | 0.0% | 5.00 | $-14.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 11 | 36.4% | $-4.07 | -37.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 22 | 22.7% | $-8.90 | -40.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 45 | 20.0% | $-10.40 | -23.1% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 21 | 4.8% | $-15.50 | -73.8% |
| 8.0-15 | 8 | 12.5% | +$0.50 | +6.2% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 54 | 24.1% | $-18.77 | -34.8% |
| Rank 2 | 26 | 23.1% | $-1.10 | -4.2% |
| Rank 3 | 13 | 0.0% | $-13.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 6 | 16.7% | +$2.50 | +41.7% |
Based on 107 of 107 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 16 | 6.2% | $-10.50 | -65.6% |
| Outside Zone | 91 | 20.9% | $-27.87 | -30.6% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 107 | 18.7% | $-38.37 | -35.9% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet gawler | 7 | 28.6% | +$0.40 | +5.7% |
| thomas farms rc murray bridge | 12 | 16.7% | $-2.30 | -19.2% |
| balaklava | 13 | 23.1% | $-6.92 | -53.2% |
| mount gambier | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| morphettville | 18 | 22.2% | $-7.25 | -40.3% |
| morphettville parks | 50 | 18.0% | $-15.30 | -30.6% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 21 | 14.3% | $-10.70 | -51.0% |
| Fri | 5 | 40.0% | +$4.70 | +94.0% |
| Sat | 75 | 17.3% | $-29.55 | -39.4% |
| Sun | 6 | 33.3% | $-2.82 | -47.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.24 (-31.1% ROI) on 4 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-18 | morphettville parks | Calypso King | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-07-17 | thomas farms rc murray br | Amical | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-09-19 | morphettville parks | Dirty Old Town | 4.80 | +$3.80 |
| 2026-09-23 | sportsbet gawler | Dampen | 4.20 | +$3.20 |
| 2026-07-17 | thomas farms rc murray br | Steel Tsunami | 4.20 | +$3.20 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-22 | morphettville parks | Sensational Secret | 4.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | morphettville parks | Prevailed | 4.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-23 | sportsbet gawler | Never Pegasus | 2.25 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | morphettville | Bohemian Angel | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | thomas farms rc murray br | Shadhavar | 2.35 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.