Harry White

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 25.2% trails market-implied 30.3% by -5.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

373

Wins

Win Rate

25.2%

Avg Odds

4.76

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-74.40

ROI

-19.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

30.3%

Calibration Gap

-5.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	373	$-74.40	-19.9%
Minus best 1 bet	372	$-86.40	-23.2%
Minus best 2 bets	371	$-95.40	-25.7%
Minus best 5 bets	368	$-121.40	-33.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-13.5%

Prior 60d ROI

-24.7%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	85	27.1%	4.27	$-21.20	-24.9%
2026-04	131	25.2%	5.28	$-32.05	-24.5%
2026-05	157	24.2%	4.60	$-21.15	-13.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	47	57.4%	$-2.70	-5.7%
2.0-3.0	93	37.6%	$-6.90	-7.4%
3.0-5.0	105	21.0%	$-22.30	-21.2%
5.0-8.0	80	5.0%	$-54.50	-68.1%
8.0-15	36	16.7%	+$24.00	+66.7%
15+	12	0.0%	$-12.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	33	39.4%	$-2.75	-8.3%
Rank 2	14	14.3%	$-7.00	-50.0%
Rank 3	4	25.0%	+$0.40	+10.0%
Rank 4-5	9	33.3%	+$16.00	+177.8%
Rank 6+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 63 of 373 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	56	33.9%	+$10.65	+19.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	373	25.2%	$-74.40	-19.9%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
rosehill gardens	10	40.0%	+$5.90	+59.0%
inverell	8	50.0%	+$4.30	+53.8%
wellington	6	16.7%	+$4.00	+66.7%
muswellbrook	8	37.5%	+$2.65	+33.1%
grafton	16	37.5%	+$2.00	+12.5%
kembla grange	36	25.0%	+$1.15	+3.2%
sportsbet gawler	7	14.3%	+$0.50	+7.1%
bordertown	7	28.6%	$-0.90	-12.9%

Worst venues

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
quirindi	14	14.3%	$-8.75	-62.5%
scone	16	12.5%	$-10.30	-64.4%
hawkesbury	30	23.3%	$-11.25	-37.5%
gosford	23	17.4%	$-13.30	-57.8%
newcastle	36	27.8%	$-13.95	-38.7%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	48	31.2%	+$0.15	+0.3%
Tue	83	30.1%	$-17.50	-21.1%
Wed	7	42.9%	+$1.75	+25.0%
Fri	45	22.2%	$-14.50	-32.2%
Sat	170	22.9%	$-39.30	-23.1%
Sun	20	10.0%	$-5.00	-25.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 8 settled, place rate 37.5%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-3.84 (-47.9% ROI) on 8 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-16	kembla grange	Hush Hush	13.00	+$12.00
2026-04-12	wellington	Chandon Star	10.00	+$9.00
2026-05-12	taree	Brilliant Knight	10.00	+$9.00
2026-04-18	kembla grange	Common Goal	9.50	+$8.50
2026-05-23	royal randwick	Prima Bella	9.50	+$8.50

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-10	thomas farms rc murray br	Sir Randolph	6.00	$-2.00
2026-04-24	sportsbet gawler	Elite Thunder	2.35	$-1.00
2026-05-30	rosehill gardens	Man Of Worth	4.50	$-1.00
2026-03-07	hawkesbury	Coulter	2.90	$-1.00
2026-04-07	grafton	Amarone	5.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.