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Harry White
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 28.4% trails market-implied 32.6% by -4.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -33.7%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-6.5%) — trend is declining.
Bio & context
Harry White is an independent racing tipster operating primarily through TheGreatTipOff platform, where he provides analysis on Australian horse racing with a focus on form-based selections. He appears to run a boutique horse ownership operation alongside his tipping activities, purchasing yearlings and tried horses for racing, which represents a potential conflict of interest in his selections.
AustraliaIndependent tipster
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Owns horses through boutique operation - may tip own horses or connected runners
- Horse purchasing/ownership business could influence selections
- Should monitor if he tips horses he owns or has purchased for clients
Methodology: Form-based analytical approach focusing on track conditions, rail positions, and race fitness. Emphasizes factors like jockey bookings and horses that can hold positions within striking distance.
Specialty: Covers midweek and provincial NSW racing meetings including tracks like Muswellbrook, Canterbury, and other country venues
Public footprint
- Twitter: @harrywhitetips (75 posts as of October 2025)
- Facebook page: harrywhitetips (~470 likes)
- TheGreatTipOff platform - regular free tips and analysis
- Active on midweek and country racing cards
Horse ownership / breeding
- Operates boutique horse ownership operation
- Purchases yearlings and tried horses for racing
- Makes ownership affordable according to Facebook bio
Public track-record claims
- Described as 'sharp and reliable tipster, delivering consistent results' on TheGreatTipOff (marketing language)
- 'Strong analytical approach and deep understanding of race form' (TheGreatTipOff promotional content)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-07-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +3.4% (-17.7% → -14.3%) · Shrunk ROI: +3.3% (-17.5% → -14.2%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-67.18
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-14.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
32.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 469 | $-67.18 | -14.3% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 468 | $-79.18 | -16.9% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 467 | $-90.18 | -19.3% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 464 | $-112.18 | -24.2% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 150 | 30.7% | 4.54 | +$4.34 | +2.9% |
| 2026-08 | 152 | 21.7% | 4.66 | $-50.72 | -33.4% |
| 2026-09 | 128 | 32.8% | 4.27 | $-11.74 | -9.2% |
| 2026-10 | 39 | 30.8% | 4.12 | $-9.06 | -23.2% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 71 | 52.1% | $-11.63 | -16.4% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 126 | 36.5% | $-15.45 | -12.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 143 | 25.9% | $-8.10 | -5.7% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 74 | 10.8% | $-27.00 | -36.5% |
| 8.0-15 | 44 | 11.4% | +$6.00 | +13.6% |
| 15+ | 11 | 0.0% | $-11.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 249 | 37.8% | $-34.43 | -13.8% |
| Rank 2 | 98 | 26.5% | $-0.65 | -0.7% |
| Rank 3 | 34 | 14.7% | $-10.60 | -31.2% |
| Rank 4-5 | 58 | 8.6% | $-25.00 | -43.1% |
| Rank 6+ | 30 | 10.0% | +$3.50 | +11.7% |
Based on 469 of 469 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 43 | 11.6% | $-12.50 | -29.1% |
| Outside Zone | 426 | 30.0% | $-54.68 | -12.8% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 469 | 28.4% | $-67.18 | -14.3% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| picklebet park wodonga | 7 | 71.4% | +$16.94 | +242.0% |
| dubbo | 22 | 45.5% | +$14.70 | +66.8% |
| scone | 14 | 50.0% | +$13.20 | +94.3% |
| albury | 8 | 37.5% | +$5.10 | +63.8% |
| wyong | 8 | 50.0% | +$4.25 | +53.1% |
| hawkesbury | 14 | 50.0% | +$1.96 | +14.0% |
| quirindi | 5 | 40.0% | +$1.60 | +32.0% |
| donald | 7 | 14.3% | +$1.50 | +21.4% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| taree | 17 | 17.6% | $-7.85 | -46.2% |
| royal randwick | 67 | 28.4% | $-8.72 | -13.0% |
| grafton | 38 | 21.1% | $-15.05 | -39.6% |
| kembla grange | 46 | 17.4% | $-17.90 | -38.9% |
| rosehill gardens | 53 | 18.9% | $-29.80 | -56.2% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 97 | 27.8% | $-12.86 | -13.3% |
| Tue | 75 | 32.0% | $-5.82 | -7.8% |
| Wed | 7 | 28.6% | +$1.40 | +20.0% |
| Fri | 33 | 39.4% | +$0.70 | +2.1% |
| Sat | 238 | 25.2% | $-58.99 | -24.8% |
| Sun | 19 | 36.8% | +$8.39 | +44.2% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 33 settled, place rate 57.6%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-4.52 (-13.7% ROI) on 33 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-10 | dubbo | Proclivity | 13.00 | +$12.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | kembla grange | Green Winter | 12.00 | +$11.00 |
| 2026-07-11 | donald | Play Bouzouki | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-07-26 | picklebet park wodonga | First Division | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-09-01 | scone | Haney | 8.00 | +$7.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-01 | newcastle | Equinox Legend | 3.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | rosehill gardens | Hellova Nature | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | bathurst | Italus | 3.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-25 | kembla grange | Laspirit Deeler | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | wyong | Master Of Disguise | 26.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.