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Harry White
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 26.7% trails market-implied 30.4% by -3.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Bio & context
Harry White is an independent racing tipster operating primarily through TheGreatTipOff platform, where he provides analysis on Australian horse racing with a focus on form-based selections. He appears to run a boutique horse ownership operation alongside his tipping activities, purchasing yearlings and tried horses for racing, which represents a potential conflict of interest in his selections.
AustraliaIndependent tipster
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Owns horses through boutique operation - may tip own horses or connected runners
- Horse purchasing/ownership business could influence selections
- Should monitor if he tips horses he owns or has purchased for clients
Methodology: Form-based analytical approach focusing on track conditions, rail positions, and race fitness. Emphasizes factors like jockey bookings and horses that can hold positions within striking distance.
Specialty: Covers midweek and provincial NSW racing meetings including tracks like Muswellbrook, Canterbury, and other country venues
Public footprint
- Twitter: @harrywhitetips (75 posts as of October 2025)
- Facebook page: harrywhitetips (~470 likes)
- TheGreatTipOff platform - regular free tips and analysis
- Active on midweek and country racing cards
Horse ownership / breeding
- Operates boutique horse ownership operation
- Purchases yearlings and tried horses for racing
- Makes ownership affordable according to Facebook bio
Public track-record claims
- Described as 'sharp and reliable tipster, delivering consistent results' on TheGreatTipOff (marketing language)
- 'Strong analytical approach and deep understanding of race form' (TheGreatTipOff promotional content)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-07-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +3.4% (-20.3% → -16.9%) · Shrunk ROI: +3.3% (-19.8% → -16.5%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-80.75
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-16.5%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
30.4%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 479 | $-80.75 | -16.9% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 478 | $-92.75 | -19.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 477 | $-101.75 | -21.3% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 474 | $-126.25 | -26.6% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 70 | 25.7% | 5.36 | $-12.30 | -17.6% |
| 2026-05 | 158 | 24.1% | 4.60 | $-22.15 | -14.0% |
| 2026-06 | 164 | 27.4% | 4.75 | $-34.60 | -21.1% |
| 2026-07 | 87 | 31.0% | 3.99 | $-11.70 | -13.4% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 58 | 55.2% | $-5.70 | -9.8% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 120 | 41.7% | $-0.05 | -0.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 132 | 23.5% | $-21.00 | -15.9% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 109 | 8.3% | $-52.50 | -48.2% |
| 8.0-15 | 50 | 12.0% | +$8.50 | +17.0% |
| 15+ | 10 | 0.0% | $-10.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 161 | 41.0% | $-7.75 | -4.8% |
| Rank 2 | 56 | 26.8% | $-4.50 | -8.0% |
| Rank 3 | 34 | 14.7% | $-6.40 | -18.8% |
| Rank 4-5 | 48 | 10.4% | $-9.00 | -18.8% |
| Rank 6+ | 15 | 0.0% | $-15.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 314 of 479 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 41 | 9.8% | $-16.50 | -40.2% |
| Outside Zone | 273 | 31.9% | $-26.15 | -9.6% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 479 | 26.7% | $-80.75 | -16.9% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| inverell | 8 | 50.0% | +$4.30 | +53.8% |
| kembla grange | 36 | 25.0% | +$4.30 | +11.9% |
| tamworth | 16 | 31.2% | +$2.90 | +18.1% |
| wyong | 8 | 37.5% | +$2.40 | +30.0% |
| royal randwick | 56 | 25.0% | +$1.55 | +2.8% |
| donald | 7 | 14.3% | +$1.50 | +21.4% |
| murwillumbah | 7 | 57.1% | +$0.80 | +11.4% |
| sportsbet gawler | 7 | 14.3% | +$0.50 | +7.1% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| coffs harbour | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| quirindi | 14 | 14.3% | $-8.75 | -62.5% |
| rosehill gardens | 38 | 23.7% | $-11.30 | -29.7% |
| canterbury park | 14 | 7.1% | $-11.75 | -83.9% |
| newcastle | 61 | 34.4% | $-12.80 | -21.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 81 | 33.3% | $-6.00 | -7.4% |
| Tue | 83 | 31.3% | $-14.50 | -17.5% |
| Wed | 14 | 21.4% | $-5.25 | -37.5% |
| Fri | 54 | 24.1% | $-10.15 | -18.8% |
| Sat | 228 | 25.0% | $-32.85 | -14.4% |
| Sun | 19 | 10.5% | $-12.00 | -63.2% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 29 settled, place rate 51.7%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-4.99 (-17.2% ROI) on 29 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-16 | kembla grange | Hush Hush | 13.00 | +$12.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | taree | Brilliant Knight | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-04-18 | kembla grange | Common Goal | 9.50 | +$8.50 |
| 2026-05-23 | royal randwick | Prima Bella | 9.50 | +$8.50 |
| 2026-07-11 | donald | Play Bouzouki | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-24 | sportsbet gawler | Elite Thunder | 2.35 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-13 | rosehill gardens | Concoction | 8.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | rosehill gardens | Man Of Worth | 4.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-13 | rosehill gardens | Maison Louis | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-08 | murwillumbah | Prestige Ice | 1.80 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.