Adam Crettenden

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 22.2% trails market-implied 32.2% by -10.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -35.0%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-67.4%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

22.2%

Avg Odds

3.76

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-38.92

ROI

-43.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.2%

Calibration Gap

-10.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	90	$-38.92	-43.2%
Minus best 1 bet	89	$-43.42	-48.8%
Minus best 2 bets	88	$-46.92	-53.3%
Minus best 5 bets	85	$-55.92	-65.8%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-35.0%

Prior 60d ROI

-67.4%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	15	33.3%	3.26	$-1.50	-10.0%
2026-04	8	0.0%	4.01	$-14.00	-175.0%
2026-05	67	22.4%	3.84	$-23.42	-35.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	10	50.0%	$-2.17	-21.7%
2.0-3.0	24	29.2%	$-5.95	-24.8%
3.0-5.0	37	18.9%	$-17.30	-46.8%
5.0-8.0	16	6.2%	$-10.50	-65.6%
8.0-15	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	12	33.3%	$-4.77	-39.8%
Rank 2	10	20.0%	$-1.30	-13.0%
Rank 3	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 28 of 90 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	26	23.1%	$-10.07	-38.7%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	90	22.2%	$-38.92	-43.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
picklebet park werribee	14	42.9%	+$3.48	+24.9%
southside pakenham	9	33.3%	+$1.85	+20.6%
bet365 stawell	8	25.0%	$-3.55	-44.4%
warrnambool	15	26.7%	$-4.40	-29.3%
bet365 park kilmore	8	12.5%	$-4.40	-55.0%
ararat	14	21.4%	$-5.40	-38.6%
bet365 hamilton	8	12.5%	$-6.50	-81.2%
horsham	14	0.0%	$-20.00	-142.9%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	24	20.8%	$-17.95	-74.8%
Tue	21	14.3%	$-13.60	-64.8%
Thu	15	26.7%	$-4.50	-30.0%
Fri	17	23.5%	$-2.55	-15.0%
Sat	13	30.8%	$-0.32	-2.5%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 75.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.24 (-5.9% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-01	southside pakenham	Hey Bella	5.50	+$4.50
2026-05-30	picklebet park werribee	Analytical	4.50	+$3.50
2026-03-09	warrnambool	Morgana	4.00	+$3.20
2026-05-30	picklebet park werribee	Sea Trader	4.20	+$3.20
2026-05-15	bet365 park kilmore	Russian Roni	3.60	+$2.60

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-27	horsham	Triomphe	3.50	$-3.00
2026-04-27	horsham	Durham	3.80	$-3.00
2026-04-27	horsham	Simply Excels	4.20	$-3.00
2026-05-07	warrnambool	Wuddzz	6.00	$-1.00
2026-05-07	warrnambool	Danzsin	4.40	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.