Adam Crettenden

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 22.7% trails market-implied 31.8% by -9.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -31.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw -37.5%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -1.2% (-36.3% → -37.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +1.5% (-32.6% → -31.1%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

141

Wins

Win Rate

22.7%

Avg Odds

3.89

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-52.85

ROI

-37.5%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-31.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

31.8%

Calibration Gap

-9.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	141	$-52.85	-37.5%
Minus best 1 bet	140	$-58.85	-42.0%
Minus best 2 bets	139	$-64.35	-46.3%
Minus best 5 bets	136	$-75.45	-55.5%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-36.5%

Prior 60d ROI

-38.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	38	23.7%	3.84	$-7.40	-19.5%
2026-08	48	20.8%	4.04	$-25.40	-52.9%
2026-09	47	19.1%	3.85	$-23.15	-49.3%
2026-10	8	50.0%	3.48	+$3.10	+38.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	19	63.2%	+$0.55	+2.9%
2.0-3.0	31	29.0%	$-9.40	-30.3%
3.0-5.0	57	14.0%	$-29.00	-50.9%
5.0-8.0	30	10.0%	$-11.00	-36.7%
8.0-15	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	75	32.0%	$-21.65	-28.9%
Rank 2	32	12.5%	$-18.50	-57.8%
Rank 3	21	4.8%	$-17.80	-84.8%
Rank 4-5	10	30.0%	+$8.10	+81.0%
Rank 6+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 141 of 141 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	22	4.5%	$-16.50	-75.0%
Outside Zone	119	26.1%	$-36.35	-30.5%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	141	22.7%	$-52.85	-37.5%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
murtoa	8	50.0%	+$10.85	+135.6%
warrnambool	38	36.8%	+$0.65	+1.7%
betdeluxe warracknabeal	7	28.6%	$-2.95	-42.1%
southside cranbourne	7	14.3%	$-4.70	-67.1%
tatura	8	12.5%	$-5.90	-73.8%
moe	8	12.5%	$-6.20	-77.5%
bet365 hamilton	8	12.5%	$-6.45	-80.6%
casterton	13	23.1%	$-7.25	-55.8%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	23	17.4%	$-15.55	-67.6%
Tue	8	12.5%	$-6.20	-77.5%
Thu	46	30.4%	$-6.40	-13.9%
Fri	29	10.3%	$-19.80	-68.3%
Sat	15	40.0%	+$7.90	+52.7%
Sun	20	20.0%	$-12.80	-64.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 11 settled, place rate 81.8%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$2.13 (+19.3% ROI) on 11 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-25	murtoa	Tempest Moon	7.00	+$6.00
2026-07-25	murtoa	Cool Star	6.50	+$5.50
2026-08-20	warrnambool	Big Rooster	5.50	+$4.50
2026-09-25	coleraine	Flying Straz	4.60	+$3.60
2026-09-03	warrnambool	Alchemistic	4.00	+$3.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-30	casterton	Tanna	2.45	$-1.00
2026-07-19	coleraine	Mosquito Award	4.80	$-1.00
2026-07-25	murtoa	New Prospect	5.00	$-1.00
2026-08-30	casterton	Swift Statement	7.50	$-1.00
2026-07-19	coleraine	Gripping	2.05	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.