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Adam Crettenden
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 23.9% trails market-implied 31.8% by -7.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -25.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -30.5%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -4.3% (-26.2% → -30.5%) · Shrunk ROI: -2.9% (-22.8% → -25.7%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-40.87
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-25.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
31.8%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 134 | $-40.87 | -30.5% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 133 | $-47.87 | -36.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 132 | $-52.37 | -39.7% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 129 | $-64.17 | -49.7% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 8 | 0.0% | 4.01 | $-14.00 | -175.0% |
| 2026-05 | 67 | 22.4% | 3.84 | $-23.42 | -35.0% |
| 2026-06 | 50 | 30.0% | 4.03 | $-0.45 | -0.9% |
| 2026-07 | 9 | 22.2% | 4.83 | $-3.00 | -33.3% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 17 | 29.4% | $-9.57 | -56.3% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 34 | 41.2% | +$0.20 | +0.6% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 50 | 20.0% | $-17.50 | -35.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 23 | 8.7% | $-12.00 | -52.2% |
| 8.0-15 | 10 | 10.0% | $-2.00 | -20.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 41 | 29.3% | $-15.62 | -38.1% |
| Rank 2 | 26 | 34.6% | +$10.10 | +38.8% |
| Rank 3 | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.00 | -60.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 9 | 11.1% | $-1.00 | -11.1% |
| Rank 6+ | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 87 of 134 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 8 | 12.5% | $-2.50 | -31.2% |
| Outside Zone | 79 | 27.8% | $-13.02 | -16.5% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 134 | 23.9% | $-40.87 | -30.5% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| casterton | 8 | 25.0% | +$4.20 | +52.5% |
| donald | 6 | 50.0% | +$3.55 | +59.2% |
| picklebet park werribee | 14 | 42.9% | +$3.48 | +24.9% |
| southside pakenham | 9 | 33.3% | +$1.85 | +20.6% |
| southside cranbourne | 9 | 33.3% | +$1.00 | +11.1% |
| bet365 seymour | 8 | 50.0% | +$0.30 | +3.8% |
| bet365 stawell | 8 | 25.0% | $-3.55 | -44.4% |
| warrnambool | 7 | 14.3% | $-4.00 | -57.1% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 23 | 13.0% | $-19.75 | -85.9% |
| Tue | 20 | 20.0% | $-8.95 | -44.7% |
| Thu | 27 | 33.3% | $-5.85 | -21.7% |
| Fri | 34 | 20.6% | $-11.20 | -32.9% |
| Sat | 13 | 30.8% | $-0.32 | -2.5% |
| Sun | 17 | 29.4% | +$5.20 | +30.6% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 10 settled, place rate 60.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.19 (-21.9% ROI) on 10 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-07 | casterton | Miracle Spin | 8.00 | +$7.00 |
| 2026-06-09 | donald | Packers Journey | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-05-01 | southside pakenham | Hey Bella | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-06-01 | bet365 park kilmore | It Matters | 4.80 | +$3.80 |
| 2026-05-30 | picklebet park werribee | Analytical | 4.50 | +$3.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-27 | horsham | Triomphe | 3.50 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | horsham | Durham | 3.80 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | horsham | Simply Excels | 4.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | warrnambool | Wuddzz | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | ladbrokes geelong | Jackand | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.