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Sky Racing - Michael Charge
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 25.8% trails market-implied 31.8% by -6.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -17.3%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-33.7%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Bio & context
Michael Charge is Sky Racing's North Queensland correspondent and trackside host on Sky Thoroughbred Central, a role he has held since early 2017. Born in 1976, he has deep racing industry experience as former CEO of Townsville Turf Club (2006-2017) and earlier roles including President of Bundaberg Race Club. He specializes in central and north Queensland thoroughbred racing, covering meetings from Rockhampton to Cairns with intimate local knowledge of regional form.
North Queensland, AustraliaSky Racing presenter, form analyst, and tipster9 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Former CEO of Townsville Turf Club (2006-2017) - may retain connections to Townsville racing stakeholders
- Former President and committee member of Bundaberg Race Club - monitor tips on Bundaberg races for potential bias
- Acknowledged 'enduring friendship' with Bundaberg trainer Tina Cotsiopolous
- Close personal relationship with race caller Tony Wode who covers same regional circuit
Methodology: Form-based analysis with careful attention to avoiding market influence. Reports that he "tends to ignore the market until arriving at a conclusion" believing pre-post markets can bias tipster thinking. Emphasizes not over-complicating form analysis and watches extensive race replays. Utilizes trackside presence and mounting yard observations across 26 Queensland tracks.
Specialty: North and Central Queensland thoroughbred racing (Rockhampton, Mackay, Townsville, Cairns)
Public footprint
- Twitter: @Chargey76
- Sky Racing tipster page with daily selections
- Regular trackside hosting on Sky Thoroughbred Central
- John Tapp Racing podcast (Episode 480, June 2024)
- The And Away They Joe Show podcast (July 2021)
- TheGreatTipOff aggregator profile
Industry connections
- Tony Wode (race caller, described as 'great friend')
- Frank Edwards (jockey, praised publicly)
- Lacey Morrison (jockey, rates high praise)
- Gary Kliese (Sky Racing colleague, provided early mentorship)
- Tina Cotsiopolous (Bundaberg trainer, 'enduring friendship')
Public track-record claims
- Tipped a 100/1 winner (mentioned in John Tapp podcast but specific details not provided)
- TheGreatTipOff profile claimed '$9,970 in cash profit from 444 tips in past 180 days' as of April 2020 - third-party aggregator marketing claim
- Profile shows '4 winning months in a row' as of August 2025 - aggregator marketing claim
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -11.7% (-14.5% → -26.2%) · Shrunk ROI: -9.4% (-14.3% → -23.7%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-55.87
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-23.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
31.8%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 213 | $-55.87 | -26.2% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 212 | $-62.07 | -29.3% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 211 | $-67.27 | -31.9% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 208 | $-80.67 | -38.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 36 | 16.7% | 3.54 | $-23.03 | -64.0% |
| 2026-05 | 67 | 23.9% | 5.02 | $-16.08 | -24.0% |
| 2026-06 | 63 | 36.5% | 4.33 | +$2.61 | +4.1% |
| 2026-07 | 47 | 21.3% | 5.37 | $-19.37 | -41.2% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 40 | 57.5% | $-2.46 | -6.2% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 45 | 26.7% | $-16.06 | -35.7% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 62 | 21.0% | $-11.35 | -18.3% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 43 | 16.3% | $-3.00 | -7.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 18 | 0.0% | $-18.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 66 | 45.5% | $-2.95 | -4.5% |
| Rank 2 | 29 | 10.3% | $-16.50 | -56.9% |
| Rank 3 | 20 | 25.0% | +$5.90 | +29.5% |
| Rank 4-5 | 18 | 27.8% | +$7.90 | +43.9% |
| Rank 6+ | 17 | 0.0% | $-17.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 150 of 213 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 19 | 21.1% | +$3.00 | +15.8% |
| Outside Zone | 131 | 29.8% | $-25.65 | -19.6% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 213 | 25.8% | $-55.87 | -26.2% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| emerald | 6 | 50.0% | +$2.59 | +43.2% |
| thangool | 14 | 42.9% | +$0.48 | +3.4% |
| rockhampton | 38 | 34.2% | $-0.61 | -1.6% |
| home hill | 5 | 20.0% | $-2.56 | -51.2% |
| barcaldine | 12 | 16.7% | $-4.52 | -37.7% |
| mount isa | 7 | 14.3% | $-5.24 | -74.9% |
| cairns | 12 | 16.7% | $-6.97 | -58.1% |
| longreach | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 54 | 24.1% | $-15.09 | -27.9% |
| Tue | 35 | 31.4% | $-5.25 | -15.0% |
| Thu | 33 | 30.3% | $-5.82 | -17.6% |
| Fri | 51 | 21.6% | $-21.31 | -41.8% |
| Sat | 20 | 25.0% | $-5.78 | -28.9% |
| Sun | 20 | 25.0% | $-2.62 | -13.1% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 16 settled, place rate 75.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.03 (+6.4% ROI) on 16 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-16 | townsville | Going Nuclear | 7.20 | +$6.20 |
| 2026-05-24 | townsville | Hellish | 6.20 | +$5.20 |
| 2026-06-27 | townsville | Russian Mint | 5.60 | +$4.60 |
| 2026-07-04 | townsville | John Joseph | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-06-01 | thangool | The Squire | 5.30 | +$4.30 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-15 | cairns | Starmeira | 7.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | townsville | Ready Tiger | 4.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | mackay | Universal Harmony | 2.78 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | mackay | Melo Melo Kava | 5.10 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-04 | townsville | Skogafoss | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.