Sky Racing - Michael Charge

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 24.0% trails market-implied 33.0% by -9.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

192

Wins

Win Rate

24.0%

Avg Odds

4.72

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-54.66

ROI

-28.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

33.0%

Calibration Gap

-9.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	192	$-54.66	-28.5%
Minus best 1 bet	191	$-63.06	-33.0%
Minus best 2 bets	190	$-70.66	-37.2%
Minus best 5 bets	187	$-83.86	-44.8%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-22.8%

Prior 60d ROI

-31.6%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	63	22.2%	5.06	$-19.01	-30.2%
2026-04	69	23.2%	4.16	$-26.57	-38.5%
2026-05	60	26.7%	4.99	$-9.08	-15.1%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	35	42.9%	$-11.65	-33.3%
2.0-3.0	45	33.3%	$-9.16	-20.4%
3.0-5.0	53	22.6%	$-4.15	-7.8%
5.0-8.0	29	6.9%	$-17.70	-61.0%
8.0-15	25	8.0%	$-7.00	-28.0%
15+	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	17	35.3%	$-2.79	-16.4%
Rank 2	4	25.0%	$-0.30	-7.5%
Rank 3	2	100.0%	+$9.30	+465.0%
Rank 4-5	5	20.0%	$-0.10	-2.0%
Rank 6+	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

Based on 33 of 192 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	100.0%	+$9.30	+465.0%
Outside Zone	31	25.8%	$-8.19	-26.4%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	192	24.0%	$-54.66	-28.5%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
barcaldine	6	33.3%	+$1.48	+24.7%
home hill	5	20.0%	$-2.56	-51.2%
rockhampton	24	25.0%	$-4.07	-17.0%
longreach	7	14.3%	$-4.16	-59.4%
thangool	14	28.6%	$-5.64	-40.3%
townsville	49	22.4%	$-11.71	-23.9%
cairns	42	21.4%	$-12.51	-29.8%
mackay	45	26.7%	$-15.49	-34.4%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	28	25.0%	$-5.70	-20.4%
Tue	33	24.2%	$-4.87	-14.8%
Thu	59	28.8%	$-7.80	-13.2%
Fri	41	17.1%	$-21.80	-53.2%
Sat	24	29.2%	$-7.49	-31.2%
Sun	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 40.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.65 (-53.0% ROI) on 5 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-25	cairns	Ellis Beach	9.40	+$8.40
2026-04-14	townsville	Outsmarted	8.60	+$7.60
2026-05-24	townsville	Hellish	6.20	+$5.20
2026-05-19	barcaldine	Potestas	5.10	+$4.10
2026-05-24	townsville	Kirikan	4.90	+$3.90

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-15	cairns	Starmeira	7.40	$-1.00
2026-05-22	mackay	Melo Melo Kava	5.10	$-1.00
2026-03-04	townsville	Moonya Lad	6.40	$-1.00
2026-03-14	townsville	Amber Affair	3.85	$-1.00
2026-04-12	longreach	Magical Slipper	4.30	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.