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David Strehlau
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 23.6% trails market-implied 29.0% by -5.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -45.9%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-4.4%) — trend is declining.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-44.58
Implied Win % (1/odds)
29.0%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 203 | $-44.58 | -22.0% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 202 | $-62.58 | -31.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 201 | $-77.58 | -38.6% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 198 | $-101.68 | -51.4% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 45 | 28.9% | 5.28 | +$18.54 | +41.2% |
| 2026-04 | 72 | 25.0% | 4.80 | $-23.67 | -32.9% |
| 2026-05 | 86 | 19.8% | 4.76 | $-39.45 | -45.9% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 19 | 52.6% | $-2.89 | -15.2% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 50 | 34.0% | $-11.60 | -23.2% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 59 | 16.9% | $-29.49 | -50.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 43 | 18.6% | $-8.40 | -19.5% |
| 8.0-15 | 25 | 4.0% | $-20.20 | -80.8% |
| 15+ | 7 | 28.6% | +$28.00 | +400.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 17 | 17.6% | $-15.70 | -92.4% |
| Rank 2 | 3 | 33.3% | +$1.50 | +50.0% |
| Rank 3 | 5 | 20.0% | +$1.50 | +30.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 10 | 20.0% | +$1.00 | +10.0% |
Based on 35 of 203 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 5 | 20.0% | +$1.50 | +30.0% |
| Outside Zone | 30 | 20.0% | $-13.20 | -44.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 196 | 23.5% | $-45.23 | -23.1% |
| sen_tips | 7 | 28.6% | +$0.65 | +9.3% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| flemington | 35 | 20.0% | +$8.84 | +25.3% |
| bet365 stawell | 8 | 50.0% | +$5.48 | +68.5% |
| horsham | 8 | 25.0% | +$3.00 | +37.5% |
| ladbrokes geelong | 8 | 50.0% | +$0.71 | +8.9% |
| moe | 10 | 20.0% | $-2.55 | -25.5% |
| picklebet park wodonga | 7 | 14.3% | $-3.60 | -51.4% |
| mornington | 18 | 16.7% | $-3.60 | -20.0% |
| bet365 hamilton | 9 | 22.2% | $-5.50 | -61.1% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 7 | 14.3% | $-3.60 | -51.4% |
| Tue | 27 | 22.2% | $-5.05 | -18.7% |
| Thu | 10 | 30.0% | $-7.70 | -77.0% |
| Fri | 24 | 41.7% | +$1.49 | +6.2% |
| Sat | 121 | 21.5% | $-19.42 | -16.0% |
| Sun | 14 | 14.3% | $-10.30 | -73.6% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.67 (-16.8% ROI) on 4 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-28 | flemington | Light Infantry Man | 19.00 | +$18.00 |
| 2026-03-07 | flemington | Caballus | 16.00 | +$15.00 |
| 2026-04-04 | caulfield | Extragalactic | 4.40 | +$9.90 |
| 2026-04-18 | mornington | Recon | 8.50 | +$7.80 |
| 2026-04-20 | picklebet park wodonga | Tutto Finito | 7.00 | +$6.40 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-10 | ladbrokes geelong | Pentonville Road | 5.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-25 | flemington | Kurakka | 5.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-25 | flemington | King Zephyr | 3.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-02 | bendigo | Oak Beach | 3.40 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-02 | bendigo | Yes Yoshi | 4.00 | $-3.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.