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David Strehlau
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Calibration is positive: actual win rate 35.3% beats market-implied 30.3% by +5.0pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 520% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -12.7% on 83 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -3.0% — a more honest expectation than the raw +2.9%.
Bio & context
David Strehlau is a Form Analyst at Racing.com, based in Melbourne. He transitioned from working as a PE teacher to racing full-time, making the career change at the end of a recent year to pursue form analysis professionally. He provides tips and analysis for Racing.com and appears on racing media including Racing Pulse with Michael Felgate.
Melbourne, VictoriaForm Analyst
Methodology: Form-based analysis (specific methodology not publicly detailed)
Specialty: Victorian racing (appears frequently on Sandown and Melbourne metro meetings)
Public footprint
- Racing.com form analyst and tipster
- Guest on Racing Pulse podcast with Michael Felgate
- Featured in Racing.com Facebook video profile
Industry connections
- Racing.com (employer)
- Michael Felgate (Racing Pulse podcast)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-07-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +28.1% (-25.2% → +2.9%) · Shrunk ROI: +20.6% (-23.5% → -3.0%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$2.50
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-3.0%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
30.3%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 85 | +$2.50 | +2.9% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 84 | $-4.50 | -5.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 83 | $-10.50 | -12.7% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 80 | $-19.70 | -24.6% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 25 | 24.0% | 4.49 | $-2.15 | -8.6% |
| 2026-08 | 14 | 50.0% | 3.63 | +$2.25 | +16.1% |
| 2026-09 | 36 | 41.7% | 4.12 | +$2.40 | +6.7% |
| 2026-10 | 10 | 20.0% | 6.21 | +$0.00 | +0.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 12 | 91.7% | +$7.35 | +61.2% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 18 | 33.3% | $-2.95 | -16.4% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 29 | 37.9% | +$9.10 | +31.4% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 16 | 6.2% | $-9.00 | -56.2% |
| 8.0-15 | 10 | 10.0% | $-2.00 | -20.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 40 | 55.0% | +$12.50 | +31.2% |
| Rank 2 | 19 | 31.6% | +$1.00 | +5.3% |
| Rank 3 | 9 | 11.1% | $-2.00 | -22.2% |
| Rank 4-5 | 12 | 8.3% | $-4.00 | -33.3% |
| Rank 6+ | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 85 of 85 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 9 | 11.1% | $-2.00 | -22.2% |
| Outside Zone | 76 | 38.2% | +$4.50 | +5.9% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 75 | 32.0% | $-2.00 | -2.7% |
| sen_tips | 10 | 60.0% | +$4.50 | +45.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| moe | 8 | 62.5% | +$5.10 | +63.8% |
| sportsbet sandown hillside | 8 | 25.0% | +$4.60 | +57.5% |
| flemington | 17 | 35.3% | +$1.90 | +11.2% |
| picklebet park wodonga | 6 | 33.3% | +$1.00 | +16.7% |
| casterton | 7 | 42.9% | +$0.35 | +5.0% |
| bet365 seymour | 8 | 25.0% | $-2.70 | -33.8% |
| bet365 swan hill | 16 | 31.2% | $-3.90 | -24.4% |
| bet365 echuca | 7 | 14.3% | $-5.05 | -72.1% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 36 | 41.7% | +$3.55 | +9.9% |
| Wed | 8 | 25.0% | +$4.60 | +57.5% |
| Thu | 10 | 30.0% | $-2.85 | -28.5% |
| Fri | 7 | 14.3% | $-5.05 | -72.1% |
| Sat | 17 | 35.3% | +$1.90 | +11.2% |
| Sun | 7 | 42.9% | +$0.35 | +5.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 9 settled, place rate 55.6%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.99 (-33.2% ROI) on 9 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-22 | sportsbet sandown hillsid | Jenni Multabella | 8.00 | +$7.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | flemington | Miss Waititi | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | sportsbet sandown hillsid | Happy Tiers | 4.60 | +$3.60 |
| 2026-09-15 | picklebet park wodonga | Zane Zena | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | casterton | Octahedron | 3.60 | +$2.60 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-15 | wodonga | Daring Prince | 2.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | bet365 swan hill | Shooter Mcgavin | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | bet365 swan hill | Hello Mistress | 2.05 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | sportsbet sandown hillsid | Omamori | 3.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | bet365 swan hill | Haaland | 4.60 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.