← Back to dashboard
David Strehlau
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 19.0% trails market-implied 27.0% by -8.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -40.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw -47.3%.
Bio & context
David Strehlau is a Form Analyst at Racing.com, based in Melbourne. He transitioned from working as a PE teacher to racing full-time, making the career change at the end of a recent year to pursue form analysis professionally. He provides tips and analysis for Racing.com and appears on racing media including Racing Pulse with Michael Felgate.
Melbourne, VictoriaForm Analyst
Methodology: Form-based analysis (specific methodology not publicly detailed)
Specialty: Victorian racing (appears frequently on Sandown and Melbourne metro meetings)
Public footprint
- Racing.com form analyst and tipster
- Guest on Racing Pulse podcast with Michael Felgate
- Featured in Racing.com Facebook video profile
Industry connections
- Racing.com (employer)
- Michael Felgate (Racing Pulse podcast)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-07-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -31.2% (-16.1% → -47.3%) · Shrunk ROI: -24.4% (-15.7% → -40.1%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-89.37
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-40.1%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
27.0%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 189 | $-89.37 | -47.3% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 188 | $-97.17 | -51.7% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 187 | $-103.57 | -55.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 184 | $-121.27 | -65.9% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 46 | 21.7% | 4.92 | $-22.02 | -47.9% |
| 2026-05 | 86 | 19.8% | 4.76 | $-39.45 | -45.9% |
| 2026-06 | 57 | 15.8% | 5.75 | $-27.90 | -48.9% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 9 | 55.6% | $-0.70 | -7.8% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 46 | 30.4% | $-14.49 | -31.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 57 | 15.8% | $-35.58 | -62.4% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 44 | 15.9% | $-10.40 | -23.6% |
| 8.0-15 | 28 | 3.6% | $-23.20 | -82.9% |
| 15+ | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 43 | 23.3% | $-23.70 | -55.1% |
| Rank 2 | 14 | 14.3% | $-4.90 | -35.0% |
| Rank 3 | 13 | 15.4% | +$0.00 | +0.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 16 | 12.5% | $-5.00 | -31.2% |
| Rank 6+ | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 92 of 189 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 15 | 13.3% | $-2.00 | -13.3% |
| Outside Zone | 77 | 18.2% | $-37.60 | -48.8% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 178 | 18.5% | $-88.82 | -49.9% |
| sen_tips | 11 | 27.3% | $-0.55 | -5.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| bet365 stawell | 8 | 50.0% | +$5.48 | +68.5% |
| horsham | 8 | 25.0% | +$3.00 | +37.5% |
| southside pakenham synthetic | 10 | 40.0% | +$2.35 | +23.5% |
| moe | 10 | 20.0% | $-2.55 | -25.5% |
| picklebet park wodonga | 7 | 14.3% | $-3.60 | -51.4% |
| mornington | 18 | 16.7% | $-3.60 | -20.0% |
| bet365 hamilton | 9 | 22.2% | $-5.50 | -61.1% |
| bet365 park kyneton | 7 | 28.6% | $-6.85 | -97.9% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| bendigo | 9 | 11.1% | $-7.80 | -86.7% |
| bet365 echuca | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
| sportsbet sandown hillside | 18 | 11.1% | $-13.45 | -74.7% |
| caulfield | 26 | 19.2% | $-14.90 | -57.3% |
| flemington | 35 | 14.3% | $-23.00 | -65.7% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 19 | 31.6% | $-0.45 | -2.4% |
| Tue | 37 | 16.2% | $-15.05 | -40.7% |
| Thu | 10 | 30.0% | $-7.70 | -77.0% |
| Fri | 8 | 50.0% | +$5.48 | +68.5% |
| Sat | 101 | 14.9% | $-61.35 | -60.7% |
| Sun | 14 | 14.3% | $-10.30 | -73.6% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 10 settled, place rate 60.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.13 (+1.3% ROI) on 10 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-18 | mornington | Recon | 8.50 | +$7.80 |
| 2026-04-20 | picklebet park wodonga | Tutto Finito | 7.00 | +$6.40 |
| 2026-05-02 | bendigo | Marffiano | 6.00 | +$6.20 |
| 2026-05-09 | caulfield | Simurgh | 2.40 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-05-23 | sportsbet sandown hillsid | Pudding | 6.50 | +$5.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-25 | flemington | Kurakka | 5.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-25 | flemington | King Zephyr | 3.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-02 | bendigo | Oak Beach | 3.40 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-02 | bendigo | Yes Yoshi | 4.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-25 | flemington | Carriedo | 2.80 | $-3.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.