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Sky Racing - Rod Fuller
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-22 22:07 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 29.6% trails market-implied 36.5% by -6.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Bio & context
Rod Fuller is a veteran Sky Racing race caller and tipster specializing in northern NSW country racing, particularly Tamworth and the Mid North Coast region. After a 40+ year career calling all three codes of racing (thoroughbreds, harness, and greyhounds), Fuller left Sky Racing in 2013 due to tax-related legal issues but returned to calling in 2021 and resumed tipping. He brings deep local knowledge of country NSW tracks, their surfaces, rail positions, and connections to local stables.
Coffs Harbour, NSW (covers northern NSW circuit)Sky Racing race caller and form analyst/tipster44 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Legal history: Convicted in 2013 on 46 tax fraud charges (claimed false travel expense refunds over ~20 years, $200k+ total). Sentenced to 6 years jail, eligible for parole after 3. Left Sky Racing 2013, returned to calling non-TAB/picnic races from 2017, officially rejoined Sky Racing TAB coverage in 2021.
- Given second chance by Sky Racing management (Kevin Wolfe) and RacingNSW (Peter V'landys). Operator should be aware of background but no evidence of racing-related integrity issues.
- No disclosed horse ownership found.
Methodology: Local knowledge-based: strong connections to local stables, understanding of track conditions, rail positions, and how surfaces play at specific northern NSW venues. Experience-driven rather than purely data-focused.
Specialty: Northern NSW country racing - Tamworth, Armidale, Taree, Coffs Harbour, Murwillumbah, and Mid North Coast tracks. All three racing codes (thoroughbreds, harness, greyhounds).
Public footprint
- Sky Racing TV race caller for northern NSW meetings
- Tips published via TheGreatTipOff aggregator
- Previously wrote column for Port Macquarie newspaper
- Sky Sports Radio race caller
- 2KY radio (1986-2000s, merged with Sky)
Industry connections
- Gary Kliese (Sky Racing host, Northern Rivers/Mid North Coast)
- Rick McIntosh (fellow Sky Racing caller)
- Ian Craig (mentor, legendary 2KY caller - Fuller was his understudy for 19 years)
- Ray Hadley (2GB)
- Michael Maxworthy (Sky Racing Brisbane host)
Public track-record claims
- Described as 'one of the most accurate racecallers' in 2021 Country Punter article (marketing language, not verified tipping data)
- TheGreatTipOff tracked various profitable days (e.g., 3 winners at Tamworth at 39% POT in Oct 2022; 50% strike rate at Newcastle trots in Jan 2022)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-07-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -8.0% (-2.0% → -10.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -7.1% (-3.7% → -10.8%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-13.52
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-10.8%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
36.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 135 | $-13.52 | -10.0% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 134 | $-21.32 | -15.9% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 133 | $-25.42 | -19.1% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 130 | $-37.02 | -28.5% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 23 | 30.4% | 3.20 | $-0.95 | -4.1% |
| 2026-07 | 41 | 41.5% | 3.33 | +$3.57 | +8.7% |
| 2026-08 | 26 | 23.1% | 3.01 | $-8.36 | -32.2% |
| 2026-09 | 45 | 22.2% | 3.42 | $-7.78 | -17.3% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 20 | 45.0% | $-3.54 | -17.7% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 48 | 35.4% | $-4.30 | -9.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 53 | 22.6% | $-5.58 | -10.5% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 13 | 7.7% | $-7.90 | -60.8% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 100.0% | +$7.80 | +780.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 64 | 31.2% | $-13.19 | -20.6% |
| Rank 2 | 35 | 31.4% | $-1.48 | -4.2% |
| Rank 3 | 22 | 22.7% | $-3.99 | -18.1% |
| Rank 4-5 | 10 | 30.0% | +$4.24 | +42.4% |
| Rank 6+ | 4 | 25.0% | +$0.90 | +22.5% |
Based on 135 of 135 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 7 | 14.3% | $-1.90 | -27.1% |
| Outside Zone | 128 | 30.5% | $-11.62 | -9.1% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 135 | 29.6% | $-13.52 | -10.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| tamworth | 13 | 53.8% | +$8.22 | +63.2% |
| armidale | 6 | 16.7% | +$2.80 | +46.7% |
| tuncurry | 7 | 42.9% | +$0.50 | +7.1% |
| gunnedah | 6 | 50.0% | +$0.43 | +7.2% |
| ballina | 7 | 42.9% | +$0.34 | +4.9% |
| inverell | 6 | 33.3% | +$0.29 | +4.8% |
| port macquarie | 18 | 33.3% | $-0.88 | -4.9% |
| kempsey | 5 | 20.0% | $-1.55 | -31.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 6 | 50.0% | +$0.43 | +7.2% |
| Tue | 26 | 19.2% | $-12.91 | -49.7% |
| Thu | 14 | 28.6% | $-3.01 | -21.5% |
| Fri | 41 | 39.0% | +$7.65 | +18.7% |
| Sat | 28 | 21.4% | $-10.77 | -38.5% |
| Sun | 20 | 30.0% | +$5.09 | +25.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 13 settled, place rate 46.2%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-5.28 (-40.6% ROI) on 13 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-19 | armidale | Tralee | 8.20 | +$7.80 |
| 2026-06-25 | tamworth | Andale Andale | 5.10 | +$4.10 |
| 2026-09-02 | coffs harbour | Jade Trees | 4.40 | +$4.10 |
| 2026-08-13 | taree | Ordinary Angel | 4.80 | +$3.90 |
| 2026-07-30 | port macquarie | Kharif | 4.40 | +$3.60 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-10 | ballina | Sorrenti | 1.46 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | coffs harbour | Arakoola | 2.92 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | taree | Zaru | 7.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | coffs harbour | Rum And Kirk | 2.92 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | inverell | Snitzond | 2.12 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-09-22 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.