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Sky Racing - Rod Fuller
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 32.7% trails market-implied 49.0% by -16.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-24.36
Implied Win % (1/odds)
49.0%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 156 | $-24.36 | -15.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 155 | $-32.36 | -20.9% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 154 | $-36.96 | -24.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 151 | $-48.26 | -32.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 59 | 32.2% | 2.77 | $-8.46 | -14.3% |
| 2026-04 | 55 | 36.4% | 2.67 | $-8.67 | -15.8% |
| 2026-05 | 42 | 28.6% | 3.05 | $-7.23 | -17.2% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 53 | 35.8% | $-28.10 | -53.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 41 | 36.6% | $-5.06 | -12.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 47 | 29.8% | +$4.00 | +8.5% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 11 | 18.2% | $-0.20 | -1.8% |
| 8.0-15 | 4 | 25.0% | +$5.00 | +125.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 8 | 37.5% | +$1.36 | +17.0% |
| Rank 2 | 4 | 25.0% | $-0.70 | -17.5% |
| Rank 3 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 100.0% | +$0.12 | +12.0% |
Based on 16 of 156 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 15 | 33.3% | $-1.22 | -8.1% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 156 | 32.7% | $-24.36 | -15.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| port macquarie | 33 | 36.4% | +$2.57 | +7.8% |
| tuncurry | 12 | 41.7% | +$1.60 | +13.3% |
| grafton | 5 | 60.0% | +$1.28 | +25.6% |
| inverell | 8 | 37.5% | +$1.12 | +14.0% |
| coffs harbour | 21 | 33.3% | $-1.06 | -5.0% |
| gunnedah | 7 | 14.3% | $-4.96 | -70.9% |
| armidale | 21 | 28.6% | $-5.29 | -25.2% |
| tamworth | 8 | 12.5% | $-5.56 | -69.5% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 20 | 30.0% | $-7.41 | -37.0% |
| Tue | 39 | 33.3% | $-10.90 | -27.9% |
| Thu | 15 | 26.7% | $-7.51 | -50.1% |
| Fri | 39 | 20.5% | $-14.42 | -37.0% |
| Sat | 24 | 37.5% | +$5.36 | +22.3% |
| Sun | 19 | 57.9% | +$10.52 | +55.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.03 (-1.5% ROI) on 2 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-27 | port macquarie | Blue Dane | 9.00 | +$8.00 |
| 2026-05-04 | taree | Silver Tempest | 5.60 | +$4.60 |
| 2026-04-17 | tuncurry | Bondi Prophet | 5.20 | +$4.20 |
| 2026-05-21 | inverell | Meddlesome | 4.70 | +$3.70 |
| 2026-05-07 | coffs harbour | Tribbiani | 4.40 | +$3.40 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-20 | taree | Villa Castina | 1.02 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | coffs harbour | Baby Ryan | 2.12 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-09 | tamworth | Dub | 3.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-08 | taree | Rockbarton Angel | 1.02 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | coffs harbour | Dubalene | 3.90 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.