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Sky Racing - Rod Fuller

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 35.6% trails market-implied 42.0% by -6.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +10.3%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-11.5%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Bio & context
Rod Fuller is a veteran Sky Racing race caller and tipster specializing in northern NSW country racing, particularly Tamworth and the Mid North Coast region. After a 40+ year career calling all three codes of racing (thoroughbreds, harness, and greyhounds), Fuller left Sky Racing in 2013 due to tax-related legal issues but returned to calling in 2021 and resumed tipping. He brings deep local knowledge of country NSW tracks, their surfaces, rail positions, and connections to local stables.
Coffs Harbour, NSW (covers northern NSW circuit)Sky Racing race caller and form analyst/tipster44 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
  • Legal history: Convicted in 2013 on 46 tax fraud charges (claimed false travel expense refunds over ~20 years, $200k+ total). Sentenced to 6 years jail, eligible for parole after 3. Left Sky Racing 2013, returned to calling non-TAB/picnic races from 2017, officially rejoined Sky Racing TAB coverage in 2021.
  • Given second chance by Sky Racing management (Kevin Wolfe) and RacingNSW (Peter V'landys). Operator should be aware of background but no evidence of racing-related integrity issues.
  • No disclosed horse ownership found.
Methodology: Local knowledge-based: strong connections to local stables, understanding of track conditions, rail positions, and how surfaces play at specific northern NSW venues. Experience-driven rather than purely data-focused.
Specialty: Northern NSW country racing - Tamworth, Armidale, Taree, Coffs Harbour, Murwillumbah, and Mid North Coast tracks. All three racing codes (thoroughbreds, harness, greyhounds).
Public footprint
  • Sky Racing TV race caller for northern NSW meetings
  • Tips published via TheGreatTipOff aggregator
  • Previously wrote column for Port Macquarie newspaper
  • Sky Sports Radio race caller
  • 2KY radio (1986-2000s, merged with Sky)
Industry connections
  • Gary Kliese (Sky Racing host, Northern Rivers/Mid North Coast)
  • Rick McIntosh (fellow Sky Racing caller)
  • Ian Craig (mentor, legendary 2KY caller - Fuller was his understudy for 19 years)
  • Ray Hadley (2GB)
  • Michael Maxworthy (Sky Racing Brisbane host)
Public track-record claims
  • Described as 'one of the most accurate racecallers' in 2021 Country Punter article (marketing language, not verified tipping data)
  • TheGreatTipOff tracked various profitable days (e.g., 3 winners at Tamworth at 39% POT in Oct 2022; 50% strike rate at Newcastle trots in Jan 2022)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-07-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +7.8% (-9.8% → -2.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +5.6% (-10.2% → -4.6%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets
160
Wins
57
Win Rate
35.6%
Avg Odds
3.09
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-3.14
ROI
-2.0%
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-4.6%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
42.0%
Calibration Gap
-6.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

SubsetNP/LROI
Full record160$-3.14-2.0%
Minus best 1 bet159$-8.04-5.1%
Minus best 2 bets158$-12.64-8.0%
Minus best 5 bets155$-24.64-15.9%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI
+10.3%
Prior 60d ROI
-11.5%

Monthly performance

MonthNWin %Avg OddsP/LROI
2026-043641.7%2.62+$0.39+1.1%
2026-054228.6%3.05$-7.23-17.2%
2026-066532.3%3.33$-1.52-2.3%
2026-071752.9%3.29+$5.22+30.7%

By odds bracket

OddsNWin %P/LROI
<2.04045.0%$-13.37-33.4%
2.0-3.05135.3%$-4.82-9.5%
3.0-5.04934.7%+$13.25+27.0%
5.0-8.01625.0%+$5.80+36.2%
8.0-1540.0%$-4.00-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race RankNWin %P/LROI
Rank 1 (fav)4934.7%$-1.25-2.6%
Rank 22536.0%$-1.21-4.8%
Rank 31338.5%+$3.24+24.9%
Rank 4-5650.0%+$4.58+76.3%
Rank 6+520.0%$-3.88-77.6%

Based on 98 of 160 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

SubsetNWin %P/LROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)425.0%+$1.10+27.5%
Outside Zone9436.2%+$0.38+0.4%

By source

SourceNWin %P/LROI
sky_racing16035.6%$-3.14-2.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

VenueNWin %P/LROI
tamworth2045.0%+$7.84+39.2%
port macquarie2941.4%+$6.93+23.9%
tuncurry1040.0%+$2.58+25.8%
grafton560.0%+$1.28+25.6%
coffs harbour2828.6%$-1.66-5.9%
inverell1631.2%$-3.46-21.6%
armidale616.7%$-4.99-83.2%
taree4632.6%$-11.66-25.3%

By day of week

DayNWin %P/LROI
Mon1526.7%$-3.72-24.8%
Tue3333.3%$-6.36-19.3%
Wed633.3%+$0.70+11.7%
Thu1330.8%$-6.10-46.9%
Fri5034.0%$-1.41-2.8%
Sat1643.8%+$4.07+25.4%
Sun2744.4%+$9.68+35.9%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 10 settled, place rate 60.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.82 (-18.2% ROI) on 10 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

DateVenueSelectionOddsP/L
2026-06-13port macquarieSupreme Command5.90+$4.90
2026-05-04tareeSilver Tempest5.60+$4.60
2026-04-17tuncurryBondi Prophet5.20+$4.20
2026-06-25tamworthAndale Andale5.10+$4.10
2026-05-21inverellMeddlesome4.70+$3.70

Biggest losses

DateVenueSelectionOddsP/L
2026-04-20tareeVilla Castina1.02$-1.00
2026-06-27coffs harbourArakoola2.92$-1.00
2026-05-07coffs harbourBaby Ryan2.12$-1.00
2026-06-02coffs harbourMaster Artist2.92$-1.00
2026-06-27coffs harbourGoodonya Ausbred2.62$-1.00
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.