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Chris Camilleri
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 33.6% vs implied 33.7% (-0.1pp). Picks track market expectations.
Bio & context
Chris Camilleri is a professional form analyst employed by both Racing.com and Betfair Australia, focusing primarily on Victorian racing. He has been publicly tipping since at least 2014, starting with roles at The Rating Bureau and as co-director of Roughie King (a subscription service focused on longshot selections) before joining the major media outlets. His approach combines data analysis using GTX software, track bias assessment, race replays, and traditional form factors.
Sydney, New South WalesForm Analyst at Racing.com & Betfair Australia12 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Owns shares in horses through Darby Racing syndicate - potential conflict if tipping own horses
- Previously ran subscription service (Roughie King) alongside media roles - commercial tipping interest
Methodology: Data-driven form analysis using GTX racing software combined with traditional handicapping factors including race replays, weight assessments, track conditions and bias, jockey bookings, distance suitability, and running styles. Previously specialized in value/longshot selections ($10+ odds) through Roughie King service.
Specialty: Victorian racing, particularly country Victorian tracks (Pakenham, Geelong, Sale); also covers NSW racing
Public footprint
- Twitter/X: @ChrisCamiller1 (6,268+ followers, joined October 2016)
- Racing.com form analyst and preview contributor
- Betfair Hub regular contributor (Victorian racing previews)
- TheGreatTipOff platform presence (Betfair | NSW profile)
- Former Roughie King co-director with Chris Winter (10,000+ Facebook followers)
- Personal website: theracinganalyst.racing
Horse ownership / breeding
- Has shares in horses with Darby Racing syndication firm (as of 2015)
Industry connections
- Late trainer Guy Walter (indirect - school connection)
- Darby Racing syndication firm (ownership)
- Chris Winter (Roughie King business partner)
Public track-record claims
- Twitter bio claims '923.4 Units Profit Overall' - public marketing claim, unverified
- TheGreatTipOff profile shows historical results like 'Turned $245 into $1,130' and '7 winners at canterbury' - platform-tracked, marketing presentation
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +7.8% (-12.6% → -4.8%) · Shrunk ROI: +6.9% (-12.6% → -5.7%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-21.14
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-5.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
33.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 437 | $-21.14 | -4.8% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 436 | $-27.64 | -6.3% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 435 | $-34.14 | -7.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 432 | $-51.64 | -12.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 108 | 35.2% | 4.13 | $-8.90 | -8.2% |
| 2026-08 | 148 | 29.1% | 4.31 | $-12.20 | -8.2% |
| 2026-09 | 143 | 35.0% | 4.43 | $-3.64 | -2.5% |
| 2026-10 | 38 | 42.1% | 5.28 | +$3.60 | +9.5% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 86 | 55.8% | $-7.89 | -9.2% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 111 | 42.3% | +$0.85 | +0.8% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 122 | 32.0% | +$22.90 | +18.8% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 83 | 15.7% | $-2.00 | -2.4% |
| 8.0-15 | 26 | 0.0% | $-26.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 230 | 45.2% | $-2.24 | -1.0% |
| Rank 2 | 87 | 31.0% | +$10.80 | +12.4% |
| Rank 3 | 50 | 18.0% | $-2.70 | -5.4% |
| Rank 4-5 | 49 | 14.3% | $-6.00 | -12.2% |
| Rank 6+ | 21 | 0.0% | $-21.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 437 of 437 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 51 | 15.7% | $-4.00 | -7.8% |
| Outside Zone | 386 | 36.0% | $-17.14 | -4.4% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 437 | 33.6% | $-21.14 | -4.8% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| goulburn | 11 | 54.5% | +$8.30 | +75.5% |
| gundagai | 7 | 42.9% | +$6.50 | +92.9% |
| moruya | 8 | 62.5% | +$5.05 | +63.1% |
| tamworth | 8 | 62.5% | +$4.80 | +60.0% |
| royal randwick | 64 | 32.8% | +$3.73 | +5.8% |
| wyong | 29 | 34.5% | +$1.50 | +5.2% |
| rosehill gardens | 64 | 35.9% | +$1.40 | +2.2% |
| ballina | 6 | 33.3% | +$0.85 | +14.2% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| muswellbrook | 7 | 28.6% | $-4.24 | -60.6% |
| kembla grange | 8 | 25.0% | $-4.50 | -56.2% |
| coffs harbour | 8 | 12.5% | $-5.75 | -71.9% |
| newcastle | 16 | 25.0% | $-8.60 | -53.8% |
| gosford | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 63 | 31.7% | $-4.80 | -7.6% |
| Thu | 93 | 30.1% | $-30.91 | -33.2% |
| Fri | 76 | 38.2% | +$2.68 | +3.5% |
| Sat | 121 | 33.9% | +$4.83 | +4.0% |
| Sun | 84 | 34.5% | +$7.06 | +8.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 31 settled, place rate 71.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$2.22 (+7.2% ROI) on 31 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-02 | warwick farm | Flying From Above | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-09-06 | gundagai | Sundrop | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-08-26 | canterbury park | Jenni The Jet | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | royal randwick | The Mona Lisa | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | wyong | Grunge | 6.50 | +$5.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-18 | newcastle | Red Rags To Bulls | 3.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | illawarra grange | Sonic Bender | 3.10 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | rosehill gardens | Street Artist | 3.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | scone | The Warrior | 10.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | scone | Lyon | 3.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.