Chris Camilleri

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 28.2% trails market-implied 31.7% by -3.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

354

Wins

100

Win Rate

28.2%

Avg Odds

4.34

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-47.20

ROI

-13.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

31.7%

Calibration Gap

-3.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	354	$-47.20	-13.3%
Minus best 1 bet	353	$-55.87	-15.8%
Minus best 2 bets	352	$-62.87	-17.9%
Minus best 5 bets	349	$-79.37	-22.7%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-21.6%

Prior 60d ROI

-8.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	102	32.4%	4.56	+$4.95	+4.9%
2026-04	114	31.6%	3.67	$-22.35	-19.6%
2026-05	138	22.5%	4.74	$-29.80	-21.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	42	57.1%	$-2.01	-4.8%
2.0-3.0	97	41.2%	+$1.64	+1.7%
3.0-5.0	125	17.6%	$-43.50	-34.8%
5.0-8.0	56	21.4%	+$13.00	+23.2%
8.0-15	28	7.1%	$-10.33	-36.9%
15+	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	29	31.0%	$-6.10	-21.0%
Rank 2	11	0.0%	$-11.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	7	28.6%	+$4.50	+64.3%
Rank 4-5	4	25.0%	+$4.00	+100.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 52 of 354 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	9	22.2%	+$2.50	+27.8%
Outside Zone	43	23.3%	$-12.10	-28.1%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	354	28.2%	$-47.20	-13.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
wyong	30	36.7%	+$9.22	+30.7%
royal randwick	27	33.3%	+$8.70	+32.2%
grafton	11	54.5%	+$4.85	+44.1%
armidale	7	57.1%	+$3.35	+47.9%
muswellbrook	14	35.7%	+$1.19	+8.5%
kembla grange	14	42.9%	+$1.15	+8.2%
canberra acton	7	28.6%	+$0.60	+8.6%
gosford	24	37.5%	+$0.15	+0.6%

Worst venues

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
albury	8	12.5%	$-5.80	-72.5%
rosehill gardens	10	10.0%	$-7.40	-74.0%
hawkesbury	36	22.2%	$-7.70	-21.4%
parkes	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
sapphire coast	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
Wed	77	33.8%	+$1.22	+1.6%
Thu	75	29.3%	$-9.79	-13.1%
Fri	60	26.7%	$-10.17	-16.9%
Sat	66	25.8%	$-6.10	-9.2%
Sun	68	27.9%	$-14.36	-21.1%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 7 settled, place rate 71.4%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.19 (-2.7% ROI) on 7 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-18	wyong	Think Itz You	8.00	+$8.67
2026-05-23	royal randwick	Agent Zero	8.00	+$7.00
2026-05-07	wyong	Gamp	6.50	+$5.50
2026-05-15	scone	Brutal Belle	6.50	+$5.50
2026-05-23	royal randwick	Tazima	6.50	+$5.50

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-17	parkes	Instead	3.10	$-1.00
2026-05-17	parkes	Dawn On Me	2.45	$-1.00
2026-04-15	warwick farm	Capital Illusion	3.10	$-1.00
2026-05-17	parkes	Jolly Good Fellow	5.00	$-1.00
2026-04-25	royal randwick	Fiddlers Green	4.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.