Mark Hunter

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (15 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 13.3% vs implied 15.2% (-1.9pp). Picks track market expectations. 425% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -100.0% on 13 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -3.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw +26.7%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +50.3% (-23.6% → +26.7%) · Shrunk ROI: +13.1% (-16.9% → -3.8%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

13.3%

Avg Odds

9.27

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$4.00

ROI

+26.7%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-3.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

15.2%

Calibration Gap

-1.9pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	15	+$4.00	+26.7%
Minus best 1 bet	14	$-8.00	-57.1%
Minus best 2 bets	13	$-13.00	-100.0%
Minus best 5 bets	10	$-10.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	1	0.0%	18.00	$-1.00	-100.0%
2026-05	10	20.0%	7.46	+$9.00	+90.0%
2026-06	2	0.0%	10.75	$-2.00	-100.0%
2026-07	2	0.0%	12.50	$-2.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	4	25.0%	+$2.00	+50.0%
8.0-15	5	20.0%	+$8.00	+160.0%
15+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	1	100.0%	+$5.00	+500.0%
Rank 4-5	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 8 of 15 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	100.0%	+$5.00	+500.0%
Outside Zone	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	15	13.3%	+$4.00	+26.7%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
caulfield	5	20.0%	+$1.00	+20.0%
flemington	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	15	13.3%	+$4.00	+26.7%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.64 (+64.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-01	bendigo	Von Hauke	13.00	+$12.00
2026-05-29	caulfield	Hearcomesthestar	6.00	+$5.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-24	flemington	Mometz	18.00	$-1.00
2026-06-12	sandown	Zouper Fund	8.50	$-1.00
2026-05-09	caulfield	Legacy Bay	8.50	$-1.00
2026-05-09	ararat	Play Bouzouki	6.50	$-1.00
2026-05-09	caulfield	Land Legend	3.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.