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Mark Hunter
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (15 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 20.0% vs implied 18.8% (+1.2pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -66.7%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+53.3%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -14.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -18.7%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -5.3% (-13.3% → -18.7%) · Shrunk ROI: -1.2% (-13.1% → -14.3%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-2.80
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-14.3%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
18.8%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 15 | $-2.80 | -18.7% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 14 | $-6.40 | -45.7% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 13 | $-10.00 | -76.9% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 10 | $-10.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 4 | 0.0% | 9.57 | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-08 | 4 | 50.0% | 10.18 | +$5.20 | +130.0% |
| 2026-09 | 7 | 14.3% | 9.49 | $-4.00 | -57.1% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 4 | 75.0% | +$8.20 | +205.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 5 | 40.0% | +$2.60 | +52.0% |
| Rank 2 | 2 | 50.0% | +$2.60 | +130.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 15 of 15 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 14 | 21.4% | $-1.80 | -12.9% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 15 | 20.0% | $-2.80 | -18.7% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| caulfield | 10 | 30.0% | +$2.20 | +22.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sat | 13 | 15.4% | $-3.80 | -29.2% |
| Sun | 2 | 50.0% | +$1.00 | +50.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-07 | caulfield | Perfect Ten | 4.60 | +$3.60 |
| 2026-08-14 | caulfield | Ten Commandments | 4.60 | +$3.60 |
| 2026-09-26 | caulfield | Diameter | 3.00 | +$2.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-12 | flemington | Oliveanotherday | 1.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | caulfield | Lindermann | 2.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | caulfield | Wootton Verni | 16.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | caulfield | Giga Kick | 11.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | flemington | Mr Avery | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.