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David Gately
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-06 10:11 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Small sample (21 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 38.1% beats market-implied 30.5% by +7.5pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -9.9% — a more honest expectation than the raw -2.4%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +32.4% (-34.8% → -2.4%) · Shrunk ROI: +14.0% (-23.9% → -9.9%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-0.50
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-9.9%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
30.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 21 | $-0.50 | -2.4% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 20 | $-3.50 | -17.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 19 | $-5.60 | -29.5% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 16 | $-10.30 | -64.4% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 7 | 42.9% | 6.23 | +$2.30 | +32.9% |
| 2026-07 | 10 | 40.0% | 3.88 | $-0.90 | -9.0% |
| 2026-08 | 3 | 0.0% | 5.13 | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-09 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.10 | +$1.10 | +110.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 1 | 100.0% | +$0.60 | +60.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 9 | 44.4% | $-0.30 | -3.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 3 | 100.0% | +$7.20 | +240.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 12 | 58.3% | +$5.40 | +45.0% |
| Rank 2 | 4 | 25.0% | $-0.90 | -22.5% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 21 of 21 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 17 | 47.1% | +$3.50 | +20.6% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 21 | 38.1% | $-0.50 | -2.4% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| rosehill | 5 | 60.0% | +$1.20 | +24.0% |
| caulfield | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sat | 21 | 38.1% | $-0.50 | -2.4% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-19 | randwick | Glorious Moments | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | flemington | Decalogue | 3.10 | +$2.10 |
| 2026-07-10 | randwick | Benevac | 3.10 | +$2.10 |
| 2026-07-17 | rosehill | Columbia Blue | 2.40 | +$1.40 |
| 2026-06-26 | rosehill | King Pedro | 2.20 | +$1.20 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-24 | randwick | Benevac | 2.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | rosehill | Tarzing | 2.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | flemington | Moby Dick | 8.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | caulfield | Brave Miss | 14.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-03 | flemington | Al Duca | 2.60 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-09-06 10:11 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.