David Gately

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (30 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 20.0% trails market-implied 29.5% by -9.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +27.3%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-73.7%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -21.9% — a more honest expectation than the raw -36.7%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -12.6% (-24.1% → -36.7%) · Shrunk ROI: -3.6% (-18.3% → -21.9%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

20.0%

Avg Odds

5.17

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-11.00

ROI

-36.7%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-21.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

29.5%

Calibration Gap

-9.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	30	$-11.00	-36.7%
Minus best 1 bet	29	$-15.00	-51.7%
Minus best 2 bets	28	$-18.00	-64.3%
Minus best 5 bets	25	$-23.40	-93.6%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+27.3%

Prior 60d ROI

-73.7%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	6	0.0%	3.50	$-6.00	-100.0%
2026-05	11	9.1%	5.82	$-6.00	-54.5%
2026-06	9	33.3%	6.09	+$0.30	+3.3%
2026-07	4	50.0%	3.83	+$0.70	+17.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	33.3%	$-1.40	-46.7%
2.0-3.0	8	12.5%	$-5.80	-72.5%
3.0-5.0	9	33.3%	+$1.20	+13.3%
5.0-8.0	3	33.3%	+$2.00	+66.7%
8.0-15	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	8	50.0%	+$2.90	+36.3%
Rank 2	5	20.0%	$-1.90	-38.0%
Rank 3	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 19 of 30 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	16	31.2%	$-2.00	-12.5%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	30	20.0%	$-11.00	-36.7%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
randwick	6	33.3%	+$1.10	+18.3%
caulfield	5	20.0%	+$0.00	+0.0%
rosehill	5	40.0%	$-1.20	-24.0%
flemington	6	16.7%	$-2.90	-48.3%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	30	20.0%	$-11.00	-36.7%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-08	caulfield	Makdane	5.00	+$4.00
2026-06-19	randwick	Glorious Moments	4.00	+$3.00
2026-06-19	flemington	Decalogue	3.10	+$2.10
2026-07-10	randwick	Benevac	3.10	+$2.10
2026-06-26	rosehill	King Pedro	2.20	+$1.20

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-22	sandown	The Volta	4.00	$-1.00
2026-04-24	flemington	Carriedo	2.90	$-1.00
2026-05-29	rosehill	Gorgeous	2.35	$-1.00
2026-05-29	caulfield	Swift Force	1.45	$-1.00
2026-04-24	randwick	Call Me Gorgeous	2.35	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.