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David Gately
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-21 22:22 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (23 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 34.8% vs implied 33.7% (+1.1pp). Picks track market expectations.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +14.1% (-30.2% → -16.1%) · Shrunk ROI: +8.4% (-22.4% → -14.0%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-3.70
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-14.0%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
33.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 23 | $-3.70 | -16.1% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 22 | $-6.50 | -29.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 21 | $-8.30 | -39.5% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 18 | $-12.60 | -70.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 4 | 25.0% | 3.27 | $-2.00 | -50.0% |
| 2026-08 | 3 | 0.0% | 5.13 | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-09 | 9 | 44.4% | 3.67 | $-0.70 | -7.8% |
| 2026-10 | 7 | 42.9% | 3.94 | +$2.00 | +28.6% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 4 | 50.0% | $-0.60 | -15.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 9 | 55.6% | +$3.10 | +34.4% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 2 | 50.0% | +$1.80 | +90.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 12 | 41.7% | $-0.70 | -5.8% |
| Rank 2 | 5 | 40.0% | +$0.40 | +8.0% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 2 | 50.0% | +$0.60 | +30.0% |
Based on 23 of 23 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 18 | 44.4% | +$1.30 | +7.2% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 23 | 34.8% | $-3.70 | -16.1% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| randwick | 5 | 40.0% | $-0.60 | -12.0% |
| caulfield | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sat | 23 | 34.8% | $-3.70 | -16.1% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-10-02 | flemington | Skybird | 3.80 | +$2.80 |
| 2026-09-11 | rosehill | Anthracite | 2.80 | +$1.80 |
| 2026-10-16 | randwick | Cross Tasman | 2.60 | +$1.60 |
| 2026-10-09 | rosehill | Satono Glow | 2.60 | +$1.60 |
| 2026-09-04 | sandown | Evaporate | 2.10 | +$1.10 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-24 | randwick | Benevac | 2.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | rosehill | Tarzing | 2.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | randwick | Marhoona | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | caulfield | Enxuto | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | randwick | Genesis Runner | 1.85 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-21 22:22 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.