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Michael Heaton
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 30.3% vs implied 33.0% (-2.7pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -54.6%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+46.5%) — trend is declining.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-8.15
Implied Win % (1/odds)
33.0%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 89 | $-8.15 | -9.2% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 88 | $-16.85 | -19.1% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 87 | $-24.23 | -27.9% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 84 | $-37.65 | -44.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 13 | 23.1% | 4.14 | +$0.10 | +0.8% |
| 2026-04 | 34 | 41.2% | 3.83 | +$9.52 | +28.0% |
| 2026-05 | 42 | 23.8% | 3.23 | $-17.77 | -42.3% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 12 | 33.3% | $-12.94 | -107.8% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 27 | 29.6% | $-13.29 | -49.2% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 36 | 36.1% | +$20.68 | +57.4% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 13 | 15.4% | $-1.60 | -12.3% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 12 | 8.3% | $-16.30 | -135.8% |
| Rank 2 | 6 | 50.0% | +$12.10 | +201.7% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 21 of 89 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 21 | 19.0% | $-7.20 | -34.3% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 89 | 30.3% | $-8.15 | -9.2% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| york | 20 | 40.0% | +$10.74 | +53.7% |
| roebourne | 6 | 16.7% | +$1.70 | +28.3% |
| narrogin | 6 | 33.3% | +$1.10 | +18.3% |
| pinjarra scarpside | 8 | 25.0% | $-0.90 | -11.3% |
| carnarvon | 5 | 20.0% | $-1.30 | -26.0% |
| albany | 6 | 16.7% | $-2.40 | -40.0% |
| northam | 8 | 12.5% | $-6.15 | -76.9% |
| kalgoorlie | 20 | 40.0% | $-7.34 | -36.7% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 21 | 38.1% | +$15.72 | +74.9% |
| Thu | 29 | 27.6% | $-10.78 | -37.2% |
| Sat | 5 | 20.0% | $-1.30 | -26.0% |
| Sun | 34 | 29.4% | $-11.79 | -34.7% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 0.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-3.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 3 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-24 | roebourne | Percussion Prince | 3.80 | +$8.70 |
| 2026-04-06 | york | Saucisson | 4.20 | +$7.38 |
| 2026-03-02 | york | Angel Shame | 6.50 | +$5.50 |
| 2026-05-14 | york | Space Academy | 2.30 | +$4.02 |
| 2026-05-10 | kalgoorlie | Monty Zoomer | 5.00 | +$3.90 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-30 | geraldton | Southland | 1.70 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | geraldton | Snippety Legend | 2.30 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | roebourne | Eight Ounces | 3.30 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-10 | kalgoorlie | Lavish Charm | 2.05 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-14 | york | Solar Chant | 1.90 | $-3.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.