Michael Heaton

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 25.6% vs implied 27.2% (-1.6pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI +19.0%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-24.0%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +12.3% (-16.3% → -4.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +9.3% (-15.8% → -6.5%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

129

Wins

Win Rate

25.6%

Avg Odds

4.95

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-5.15

ROI

-4.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-6.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

27.2%

Calibration Gap

-1.6pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	129	$-5.15	-4.0%
Minus best 1 bet	128	$-15.15	-11.8%
Minus best 2 bets	127	$-22.15	-17.4%
Minus best 5 bets	124	$-39.15	-31.6%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+19.0%

Prior 60d ROI

-24.0%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	27	22.2%	4.96	+$0.90	+3.3%
2026-08	29	20.7%	6.11	$-4.45	-15.3%
2026-09	40	30.0%	4.51	+$4.90	+12.3%
2026-10	33	27.3%	4.44	$-6.50	-19.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	4	50.0%	$-0.80	-20.0%
2.0-3.0	34	44.1%	+$2.35	+6.9%
3.0-5.0	47	19.1%	$-12.70	-27.0%
5.0-8.0	26	19.2%	+$5.00	+19.2%
8.0-15	15	13.3%	+$4.00	+26.7%
15+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	53	34.0%	$-8.65	-16.3%
Rank 2	20	30.0%	+$5.20	+26.0%
Rank 3	22	18.2%	+$0.70	+3.2%
Rank 4-5	23	8.7%	$-4.50	-19.6%
Rank 6+	11	27.3%	+$2.10	+19.1%

Based on 129 of 129 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	16	25.0%	+$7.50	+46.9%
Outside Zone	113	25.7%	$-12.65	-11.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	129	25.6%	$-5.15	-4.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
pinjarra scarpside	6	50.0%	+$14.20	+236.7%
leonora	6	50.0%	+$3.95	+65.8%
bunbury	15	26.7%	+$3.55	+23.7%
moora	5	60.0%	+$3.40	+68.0%
kununurra	8	25.0%	+$3.30	+41.2%
belmont	17	29.4%	+$2.80	+16.5%
mingenew	6	50.0%	+$1.30	+21.7%
york	5	40.0%	$-0.15	-3.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Wed	12	50.0%	+$17.85	+148.7%
Thu	54	20.4%	$-16.75	-31.0%
Sat	63	25.4%	$-6.25	-9.9%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 11 settled, place rate 72.7%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$2.88 (+26.2% ROI) on 11 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-22	pinjarra scarpside	Sister Mary	11.00	+$10.00
2026-09-17	bunbury	Major Magnus	8.00	+$7.00
2026-08-29	kununurra	Vevinsky	7.50	+$6.50
2026-09-17	bunbury	Champagne Talks	6.50	+$5.50
2026-10-10	leonora	Dublin Red	6.00	+$5.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-17	bunbury	Ruthless Angel	4.40	$-1.00
2026-09-05	junction	Soaring Solo	3.90	$-1.00
2026-07-23	northam	Tag Time	2.25	$-1.00
2026-10-10	leonora	Ruling Dame	2.20	$-1.00
2026-10-01	kalgoorlie	Blood Brother	4.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.