Michael Heaton

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 25.5% trails market-implied 32.5% by -7.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -30.0% — a more honest expectation than the raw -35.5%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -15.4% (-20.1% → -35.5%) · Shrunk ROI: -11.5% (-18.5% → -30.0%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

153

Wins

Win Rate

25.5%

Avg Odds

4.00

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-54.36

ROI

-35.5%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-30.0%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.5%

Calibration Gap

-7.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	153	$-54.36	-35.5%
Minus best 1 bet	152	$-63.06	-41.5%
Minus best 2 bets	151	$-68.06	-45.1%
Minus best 5 bets	148	$-79.98	-54.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-29.7%

Prior 60d ROI

-42.3%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	21	23.8%	4.17	$-8.80	-41.9%
2026-05	42	23.8%	3.23	$-17.77	-42.3%
2026-06	75	26.7%	4.17	$-24.64	-32.9%
2026-07	15	26.7%	5.06	$-3.15	-21.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	21	33.3%	$-17.63	-84.0%
2.0-3.0	47	38.3%	$-12.93	-27.5%
3.0-5.0	47	23.4%	$-1.70	-3.6%
5.0-8.0	26	11.5%	$-10.10	-38.8%
8.0-15	11	0.0%	$-11.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	49	38.8%	$-14.59	-29.8%
Rank 2	29	24.1%	+$3.30	+11.4%
Rank 3	15	13.3%	$-5.70	-38.0%
Rank 4-5	15	0.0%	$-15.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 111 of 153 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	15	13.3%	$-4.00	-26.7%
Outside Zone	96	27.1%	$-30.99	-32.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	153	25.5%	$-54.36	-35.5%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
roebourne	6	16.7%	+$1.70	+28.3%
narrogin	6	33.3%	+$1.10	+18.3%
pinjarra scarpside	8	25.0%	$-0.90	-11.3%
carnarvon	5	20.0%	$-1.30	-26.0%
bunbury	7	14.3%	$-5.00	-71.4%
york	7	28.6%	$-5.88	-84.0%
belmont	43	30.2%	$-7.55	-17.6%
geraldton	7	14.3%	$-9.00	-128.6%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	16	25.0%	$-4.35	-27.2%
Thu	45	26.7%	$-17.08	-38.0%
Sat	51	29.4%	$-9.50	-18.6%
Sun	41	19.5%	$-23.43	-57.1%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 14 settled, place rate 64.3%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.98 (+14.2% ROI) on 14 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-24	roebourne	Percussion Prince	3.80	+$8.70
2026-06-06	belmont	Charino	6.00	+$5.00
2026-05-14	york	Space Academy	2.30	+$4.02
2026-07-04	belmont	Two Time Charlie	5.00	+$4.00
2026-05-10	kalgoorlie	Monty Zoomer	5.00	+$3.90

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-30	geraldton	Southland	1.70	$-3.00
2026-04-30	geraldton	Snippety Legend	2.30	$-3.00
2026-05-24	roebourne	Eight Ounces	3.30	$-3.00
2026-05-10	kalgoorlie	Lavish Charm	2.05	$-3.00
2026-05-14	york	Solar Chant	1.90	$-3.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.