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Michael Heaton
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-29 05:11 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 24.6% trails market-implied 29.9% by -5.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -49.1%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-23.0%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -22.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -26.3%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -7.2% (-19.1% → -26.3%) · Shrunk ROI: -4.7% (-18.0% → -22.7%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-35.24
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-22.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
29.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 134 | $-35.24 | -26.3% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 133 | $-45.24 | -34.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 132 | $-50.24 | -38.1% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 129 | $-61.44 | -47.6% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 75 | 26.7% | 4.17 | $-24.64 | -32.9% |
| 2026-07 | 42 | 23.8% | 5.00 | $-2.25 | -5.4% |
| 2026-08 | 17 | 17.6% | 4.63 | $-8.35 | -49.1% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 13 | 38.5% | $-5.34 | -41.1% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 40 | 47.5% | +$4.80 | +12.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 34 | 14.7% | $-14.70 | -43.2% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 29 | 10.3% | $-13.00 | -44.8% |
| 8.0-15 | 17 | 5.9% | $-6.00 | -35.3% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 53 | 43.4% | $-1.74 | -3.3% |
| Rank 2 | 28 | 21.4% | $-5.00 | -17.9% |
| Rank 3 | 22 | 13.6% | $-8.50 | -38.6% |
| Rank 4-5 | 25 | 4.0% | $-14.00 | -56.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 134 of 134 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 21 | 14.3% | $-5.00 | -23.8% |
| Outside Zone | 113 | 26.5% | $-30.24 | -26.8% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 134 | 24.6% | $-35.24 | -26.3% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| pinjarra scarpside | 6 | 50.0% | +$14.20 | +236.7% |
| pinjarra park | 13 | 23.1% | $-5.25 | -40.4% |
| newman | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| kalgoorlie | 14 | 21.4% | $-7.44 | -53.1% |
| belmont | 44 | 29.5% | $-8.55 | -19.4% |
| northam | 29 | 24.1% | $-10.35 | -35.7% |
| bunbury | 15 | 13.3% | $-11.00 | -73.3% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 8 | 25.0% | $-3.45 | -43.1% |
| Wed | 6 | 50.0% | +$14.20 | +236.7% |
| Thu | 49 | 20.4% | $-23.15 | -47.2% |
| Sat | 57 | 26.3% | $-15.40 | -27.0% |
| Sun | 14 | 21.4% | $-7.44 | -53.1% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 15 settled, place rate 80.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$7.40 (+49.3% ROI) on 15 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-22 | pinjarra scarpside | Sister Mary | 11.00 | +$10.00 |
| 2026-06-06 | belmont | Charino | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-07-04 | belmont | Two Time Charlie | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | pinjarra scarpside | Countersunk | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | pinjarra scarpside | Luka Magic | 4.20 | +$3.20 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-23 | northam | Tag Time | 2.25 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | bunbury | Spinarella | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | pinjarra scarpside | Suparoo | 8.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | belmont | Morning Thunder | 1.65 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | kalgoorlie | Graceful Lass | 2.45 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-08-29 05:11 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.