Andrew O'Toole

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (16 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 31.2% trails market-implied 35.0% by -3.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +68.3%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-83.5%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -16.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -26.6%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -64.1% (+37.5% → -26.6%) · Shrunk ROI: -21.4% (+5.1% → -16.3%) · Verdict: ROI MISLEADING → STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

31.2%

Avg Odds

3.82

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-4.25

ROI

-26.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-16.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

35.0%

Calibration Gap

-3.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	16	$-4.25	-26.6%
Minus best 1 bet	15	$-6.65	-44.3%
Minus best 2 bets	14	$-8.85	-63.2%
Minus best 5 bets	11	$-11.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+68.3%

Prior 60d ROI

-83.5%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	7	14.3%	4.46	$-5.35	-76.4%
2026-08	3	0.0%	2.93	$-3.00	-100.0%
2026-09	3	100.0%	2.93	+$5.80	+193.3%
2026-10	3	33.3%	4.08	$-1.70	-56.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	66.7%	$-0.05	-1.7%
2.0-3.0	4	25.0%	$-1.80	-45.0%
3.0-5.0	6	33.3%	+$0.60	+10.0%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	8	37.5%	$-2.85	-35.6%
Rank 2	4	50.0%	+$2.60	+65.0%
Rank 3	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 16 of 16 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	15	33.3%	$-3.25	-21.7%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	16	31.2%	$-4.25	-26.6%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
darwin	10	40.0%	+$0.45	+4.5%
alice springs	6	16.7%	$-4.70	-78.3%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Fri	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Sat	10	40.0%	+$0.45	+4.5%
Sun	3	33.3%	$-1.70	-56.7%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 20.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-3.00 (-60.0% ROI) on 5 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-04	darwin	Miami Baby	3.40	+$2.40
2026-09-04	darwin	Montjuic Magic	3.20	+$2.20
2026-09-04	darwin	Meet Me At The Bar	2.20	+$1.20
2026-07-17	darwin	Runaway Tycoon	1.65	+$0.65
2026-10-03	alice springs	Golden Tunes	1.30	+$0.30

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-10-03	alice springs	Lean On Me	9.00	$-1.00
2026-10-03	alice springs	Yule Point	1.95	$-1.00
2026-08-27	alice springs	Revolution Rising	2.50	$-1.00
2026-07-24	darwin	Press Express	6.00	$-1.00
2026-07-31	darwin	Great Buy	9.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.