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Andrew O'Toole
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (12 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 75.0% beats market-implied 37.4% by +37.6pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 50% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of +73.5% on 10 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +133.3%) is materially better than the prior 60d (+112.5%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +13.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw +122.9%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +53.7% (+69.2% → +122.9%) · Shrunk ROI: +10.4% (+2.9% → +13.3%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$14.75
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
+13.3%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
37.4%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 12 | +$14.75 | +122.9% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 11 | +$10.25 | +93.2% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 10 | +$7.35 | +73.5% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 7 | +$0.60 | +8.6% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-05 | 6 | 66.7% | 3.21 | +$6.75 | +112.5% |
| 2026-07 | 6 | 83.3% | 2.80 | +$8.00 | +133.3% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 3 | 100.0% | +$2.60 | +86.7% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 4 | 50.0% | +$0.45 | +11.2% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 4 | 75.0% | +$7.20 | +180.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 1 | 100.0% | +$4.50 | +450.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 7 | 85.7% | +$8.65 | +123.6% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 100.0% | +$1.00 | +100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 100.0% | +$4.50 | +450.0% |
Based on 9 of 12 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 9 | 88.9% | +$14.15 | +157.2% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 12 | 75.0% | +$14.75 | +122.9% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| darwin | 12 | 75.0% | +$14.75 | +122.9% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sat | 12 | 75.0% | +$14.75 | +122.9% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-22 | darwin | Self Serve | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-07-10 | darwin | Luna Field | 3.90 | +$2.90 |
| 2026-07-03 | darwin | Leveraged Buyout | 3.70 | +$2.70 |
| 2026-05-08 | darwin | Field Of Flutes | 3.60 | +$2.60 |
| 2026-07-10 | darwin | Anson Bay | 2.45 | +$1.45 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-08 | darwin | Tigers Roar | 2.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | darwin | Southampton Flare | 3.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-03 | darwin | Orion The Hunter | 2.80 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.