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Andrew O'Toole
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (6 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 66.7% beats market-implied 36.4% by +30.3pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 105% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -8.7% on 4 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$6.75
Implied Win % (1/odds)
36.4%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-05 | 6 | 66.7% | 3.21 | +$6.75 | +112.5% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 2 | 100.0% | +$1.65 | +82.5% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 2 | 50.0% | +$1.60 | +80.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 1 | 100.0% | +$4.50 | +450.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 2 | 100.0% | +$1.65 | +82.5% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 100.0% | +$4.50 | +450.0% |
Based on 3 of 6 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 3 | 100.0% | +$6.15 | +205.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 6 | 66.7% | +$6.75 | +112.5% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| darwin | 6 | 66.7% | +$6.75 | +112.5% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sat | 6 | 66.7% | +$6.75 | +112.5% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-22 | darwin | Self Serve | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-05-08 | darwin | Field Of Flutes | 3.60 | +$2.60 |
| 2026-05-22 | darwin | Dakota Lee | 1.85 | +$0.85 |
| 2026-05-22 | darwin | Bollon | 1.80 | +$0.80 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-08 | darwin | Tigers Roar | 2.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | darwin | Southampton Flare | 3.70 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.