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Andrew O'Toole
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-29 05:15 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Small sample (16 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 37.5% beats market-implied 34.1% by +3.4pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -100.0%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+42.3%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -10.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw -2.2%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -39.9% (+37.7% → -2.2%) · Shrunk ROI: -12.9% (+2.5% → -10.4%) · Verdict: ROI MISLEADING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-0.35
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-10.4%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
34.1%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 16 | $-0.35 | -2.2% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 15 | $-3.25 | -21.7% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 14 | $-5.95 | -42.5% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 11 | $-9.35 | -85.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 13 | 46.2% | 3.70 | +$2.65 | +20.4% |
| 2026-08 | 3 | 0.0% | 2.93 | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 2 | 100.0% | +$1.60 | +80.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 6 | 33.3% | $-1.55 | -25.8% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 6 | 33.3% | +$1.60 | +26.7% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 10 | 50.0% | +$3.65 | +36.5% |
| Rank 2 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 3 | 33.3% | $-1.00 | -33.3% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 16 of 16 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 15 | 40.0% | +$0.65 | +4.3% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 16 | 37.5% | $-0.35 | -2.2% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| darwin | 13 | 46.2% | +$2.65 | +20.4% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Fri | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Sat | 13 | 46.2% | +$2.65 | +20.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 0.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-3.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 3 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-10 | darwin | Luna Field | 3.90 | +$2.90 |
| 2026-07-03 | darwin | Leveraged Buyout | 3.70 | +$2.70 |
| 2026-07-10 | darwin | Anson Bay | 2.45 | +$1.45 |
| 2026-07-10 | darwin | Yule Point | 2.00 | +$1.00 |
| 2026-07-03 | darwin | Balastier | 1.95 | +$0.95 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-27 | alice springs | Revolution Rising | 2.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | darwin | Press Express | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | darwin | Great Buy | 9.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | darwin | Vieri | 4.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | darwin | Capitol Hill | 3.90 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-08-29 05:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.