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rugbyleagueanalyst
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (17 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 29.4% trails market-implied 52.3% by -22.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +0.3%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-49.4%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -17.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw -31.8%.
Since last weekly snapshot: +4 new bets · ROI: +25.3% (-57.1% → -31.8%) · Shrunk ROI: +4.3% (-22.1% → -17.8%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-5.41
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-17.8%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
52.3%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 17 | $-5.41 | -31.8% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 16 | $-9.41 | -58.8% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 15 | $-10.41 | -69.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 12 | $-12.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 6 | 16.7% | 1.71 | $-4.28 | -71.3% |
| 2026-08 | 5 | 40.0% | 1.82 | $-1.15 | -23.0% |
| 2026-09 | 6 | 33.3% | 10.45 | +$0.02 | +0.3% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 14 | 14.3% | $-10.43 | -74.5% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 1 | 100.0% | +$1.00 | +100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 1 | 100.0% | +$4.00 | +400.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 100.0% | +$0.02 | +2.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 2 | 3 | 100.0% | +$5.72 | +190.7% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 100.0% | +$0.02 | +2.0% |
Based on 17 of 17 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 100.0% | +$4.00 | +400.0% |
| Outside Zone | 16 | 25.0% | $-9.41 | -58.8% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| payload | 17 | 29.4% | $-5.41 | -31.8% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Fri | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Sat | 5 | 40.0% | $-1.15 | -23.0% |
| Sun | 9 | 33.3% | $-1.26 | -14.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-30 | | James Tedesco for | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | | Parramatta | 2.00 | +$1.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | | in this game is the over | 1.85 | +$0.85 |
| 2026-07-24 | | Gold Coast | 1.72 | +$0.72 |
| 2026-09-30 | | Mark Nawaqanitawase for | 51.00 | +$0.02 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-17 | | Cronulla | 1.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | | Sydney Roosters for | 1.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | | Gold Coast | 1.67 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-13 | | Newcastle | 1.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | | Cronulla | 1.72 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.