Adam Olszanski

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 26.0% trails market-implied 33.2% by -7.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -2.6%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-52.0%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

154

Wins

Win Rate

26.0%

Avg Odds

4.26

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-46.49

ROI

-30.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

33.2%

Calibration Gap

-7.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	154	$-46.49	-30.2%
Minus best 1 bet	153	$-54.99	-35.9%
Minus best 2 bets	152	$-61.49	-40.5%
Minus best 5 bets	149	$-75.58	-50.7%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-2.6%

Prior 60d ROI

-52.0%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	14	14.3%	4.39	$-8.34	-59.6%
2026-04	72	23.6%	4.44	$-36.40	-50.6%
2026-05	68	30.9%	4.04	$-1.75	-2.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	25	56.0%	+$2.80	+11.2%
2.0-3.0	48	37.5%	$-7.59	-15.8%
3.0-5.0	43	11.6%	$-25.70	-59.8%
5.0-8.0	21	9.5%	$-8.50	-40.5%
8.0-15	13	7.7%	$-3.50	-26.9%
15+	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	13	46.2%	+$2.80	+21.5%
Rank 2	8	12.5%	$-4.60	-57.5%
Rank 3	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	3	33.3%	+$6.50	+216.7%

Based on 30 of 154 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	23	34.8%	+$5.70	+24.8%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	154	26.0%	$-46.49	-30.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
southside pakenham	49	32.7%	+$3.22	+6.6%
bet365 seymour	5	40.0%	+$1.20	+24.0%
moe	16	37.5%	$-1.70	-10.6%
stony creek	8	25.0%	$-2.34	-29.2%
picklebet park werribee	7	14.3%	$-4.36	-62.3%
caulfield	9	22.2%	$-5.40	-60.0%
towong	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
mornington	15	20.0%	$-7.10	-47.3%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Tue	16	37.5%	+$0.05	+0.3%
Thu	23	39.1%	+$2.47	+10.7%
Fri	54	25.9%	$-12.81	-23.7%
Sat	30	16.7%	$-19.91	-66.4%
Sun	31	19.4%	$-16.29	-52.5%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 75.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$2.01 (+50.4% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-22	southside pakenham	Le Notre	9.50	+$8.50
2026-05-17	sale	Flying Mikki	7.50	+$6.50
2026-04-16	southside pakenham	Yes Yoshi	1.90	+$6.45
2026-05-15	southside pakenham	Aristonous	5.00	+$4.00
2026-04-11	picklebet park werribee	Share The Stars	2.10	+$3.64

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-17	southside cranbourne	Viasain	2.45	$-3.00
2026-04-11	picklebet park werribee	No No No No No	1.75	$-3.00
2026-04-19	sale	Gatwick	2.00	$-3.00
2026-04-24	southside cranbourne	Golden Spritz	2.05	$-3.00
2026-04-19	sale	Killiana	1.65	$-3.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.