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Adam Olszanski
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 22.2% trails market-implied 30.2% by -8.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -24.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw -27.6%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +4.2% (-31.8% → -27.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +4.9% (-29.1% → -24.1%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-43.65
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-24.1%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
30.2%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 158 | $-43.65 | -27.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 157 | $-52.65 | -33.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 156 | $-59.65 | -38.2% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 153 | $-78.15 | -51.1% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-08 | 66 | 21.2% | 4.06 | $-23.25 | -35.2% |
| 2026-09 | 76 | 22.4% | 4.76 | $-17.25 | -22.7% |
| 2026-10 | 16 | 25.0% | 3.86 | $-3.15 | -19.7% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 21 | 52.4% | $-2.55 | -12.1% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 34 | 32.4% | $-8.00 | -23.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 61 | 13.1% | $-30.60 | -50.2% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 24 | 8.3% | $-10.50 | -43.8% |
| 8.0-15 | 17 | 17.6% | +$9.00 | +52.9% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 76 | 32.9% | $-20.65 | -27.2% |
| Rank 2 | 31 | 16.1% | $-11.50 | -37.1% |
| Rank 3 | 18 | 5.6% | $-8.00 | -44.4% |
| Rank 4-5 | 27 | 14.8% | +$2.50 | +9.3% |
| Rank 6+ | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 158 of 158 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 14 | 7.1% | $-4.00 | -28.6% |
| Outside Zone | 144 | 23.6% | $-39.65 | -27.5% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 158 | 22.2% | $-43.65 | -27.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| mornington | 24 | 20.8% | +$0.40 | +1.7% |
| bet365 seymour | 8 | 37.5% | $-0.60 | -7.5% |
| bet365 echuca | 7 | 28.6% | $-1.80 | -25.7% |
| tatura | 8 | 25.0% | $-2.35 | -29.4% |
| southside cranbourne | 6 | 33.3% | $-2.65 | -44.2% |
| ladbrokes geelong | 7 | 14.3% | $-3.10 | -44.3% |
| southside pakenham synthetic | 44 | 25.0% | $-7.55 | -17.2% |
| sale | 16 | 18.8% | $-7.80 | -48.8% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 32 | 21.9% | $-9.80 | -30.6% |
| Tue | 23 | 26.1% | $-1.25 | -5.4% |
| Thu | 32 | 18.8% | $-19.30 | -60.3% |
| Fri | 36 | 25.0% | $-6.10 | -16.9% |
| Sat | 8 | 25.0% | +$4.80 | +60.0% |
| Sun | 27 | 18.5% | $-12.00 | -44.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 11 settled, place rate 81.8%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$3.23 (+29.4% ROI) on 11 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-26 | mornington | Hurry Curry | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | southside pakenham synthe | Utopic Future | 8.00 | +$7.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | moe | Shaadrille | 8.00 | +$7.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | mornington | Coronationhercules | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-10-02 | southside pakenham synthe | Persian Caviar | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-24 | southside pakenham synthe | Watten Assett | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | southside pakenham synthe | Twisted Love | 4.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-24 | moe | Kincumber | 11.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | moe | Dirty Diana | 2.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | mornington | Bacash | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.