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Adam Olszanski
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 24.1% trails market-implied 32.3% by -8.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -21.1%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-52.2%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -28.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -33.7%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -16.0% (-17.7% → -33.7%) · Shrunk ROI: -11.5% (-16.8% → -28.3%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-47.52
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-28.3%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
32.3%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 141 | $-47.52 | -33.7% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 140 | $-56.02 | -40.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 139 | $-62.52 | -45.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 136 | $-76.33 | -56.1% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 57 | 22.8% | 4.46 | $-29.77 | -52.2% |
| 2026-05 | 68 | 30.9% | 4.04 | $-1.75 | -2.6% |
| 2026-06 | 16 | 0.0% | 6.71 | $-16.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 21 | 61.9% | +$5.97 | +28.4% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 39 | 35.9% | $-8.59 | -22.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 46 | 8.7% | $-31.90 | -69.3% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 19 | 10.5% | $-6.50 | -34.2% |
| 8.0-15 | 11 | 9.1% | $-1.50 | -13.6% |
| 15+ | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 19 | 31.6% | $-3.20 | -16.8% |
| Rank 2 | 13 | 7.7% | $-9.60 | -73.8% |
| Rank 3 | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 3 | 33.3% | +$6.50 | +216.7% |
| Rank 6+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 46 of 141 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 11 | 0.0% | $-11.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 35 | 22.9% | $-6.30 | -18.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 141 | 24.1% | $-47.52 | -33.7% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| southside pakenham | 49 | 32.7% | +$3.22 | +6.6% |
| bet365 seymour | 5 | 40.0% | +$1.20 | +24.0% |
| moe | 16 | 37.5% | $-1.70 | -10.6% |
| caulfield | 9 | 22.2% | $-5.40 | -60.0% |
| sportsbet sandown lakeside | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| mornington | 15 | 20.0% | $-7.10 | -47.3% |
| flemington | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
| sale | 16 | 18.8% | $-9.25 | -57.8% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 16 | 37.5% | +$0.05 | +0.3% |
| Wed | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| Thu | 23 | 39.1% | +$2.47 | +10.7% |
| Fri | 46 | 23.9% | $-10.54 | -22.9% |
| Sat | 26 | 15.4% | $-18.55 | -71.3% |
| Sun | 23 | 17.4% | $-13.95 | -60.7% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 6 settled, place rate 66.7%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.30 (+21.7% ROI) on 6 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-22 | southside pakenham | Le Notre | 9.50 | +$8.50 |
| 2026-05-17 | sale | Flying Mikki | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-04-16 | southside pakenham | Yes Yoshi | 1.90 | +$6.45 |
| 2026-05-15 | southside pakenham | Aristonous | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-04-17 | southside cranbourne | Bella Verona | 2.05 | +$3.36 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-17 | southside cranbourne | Viasain | 2.45 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-19 | sale | Gatwick | 2.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | southside cranbourne | Golden Spritz | 2.05 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-19 | sale | Killiana | 1.65 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-17 | southside cranbourne | Posh Diamante | 2.60 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.