Darren Carroll

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-16 11:07 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (14 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 50.0% beats market-implied 42.2% by +7.8pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 113% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -5.8% on 12 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -1.9% — a more honest expectation than the raw +37.9%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +61.8% (-23.9% → +37.9%) · Shrunk ROI: +16.2% (-18.1% → -1.9%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

50.0%

Avg Odds

2.58

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$5.30

ROI

+37.9%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-1.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

42.2%

Calibration Gap

+7.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	14	+$5.30	+37.9%
Minus best 1 bet	13	+$1.70	+13.1%
Minus best 2 bets	12	$-0.70	-5.8%
Minus best 5 bets	9	$-5.40	-60.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-09	14	50.0%	2.58	+$5.30	+37.9%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	33.3%	$-1.50	-50.0%
2.0-3.0	7	57.1%	+$2.80	+40.0%
3.0-5.0	4	50.0%	+$4.00	+100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	7	42.9%	$-1.00	-14.3%
Rank 2	4	50.0%	+$2.00	+50.0%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	2	100.0%	+$5.30	+265.0%

Based on 14 of 14 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	14	50.0%	+$5.30	+37.9%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	14	50.0%	+$5.30	+37.9%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	4	50.0%	$-0.40	-10.0%
Tue	4	50.0%	+$1.30	+32.5%
Wed	1	100.0%	+$3.60	+360.0%
Thu	2	50.0%	+$0.40	+20.0%
Fri	3	33.3%	+$0.40	+13.3%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.40 (-35.0% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-16	ballarat	Itz Classic Gold	4.60	+$3.60
2026-09-11	geelong	My Uncle Stan	3.40	+$2.40
2026-09-15	shepparton	Piastri	2.70	+$1.70
2026-09-08	swan hill	King Kasey	2.60	+$1.60
2026-09-10	kilmore	My Mate Ace	2.40	+$1.40

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-07	maryborough	Milola Rock	3.40	$-1.00
2026-09-07	maryborough	Jilliby Illusion	1.85	$-1.00
2026-09-11	mildura	Shes Poppy	2.10	$-1.00
2026-09-08	swan hill	Hot Deal	2.30	$-1.00
2026-09-11	geelong	Zanda Man	2.60	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-16 11:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.