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Darren Carroll
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (33 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 45.5% trails market-implied 54.9% by -9.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -16.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw -20.9%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +1.3% (-22.2% → -20.9%) · Shrunk ROI: +2.6% (-18.8% → -16.2%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-6.91
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-16.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
54.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 33 | $-6.91 | -20.9% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 32 | $-8.71 | -27.2% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 31 | $-10.01 | -32.3% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 28 | $-12.96 | -46.3% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 6 | 50.0% | 1.76 | $-0.85 | -14.2% |
| 2026-05 | 16 | 43.8% | 2.02 | $-3.86 | -24.1% |
| 2026-06 | 11 | 45.5% | 2.37 | $-2.20 | -20.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 21 | 57.1% | $-2.26 | -10.8% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 9 | 33.3% | $-1.65 | -18.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 12 | 58.3% | $-0.06 | -0.5% |
| Rank 2 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 2 | 50.0% | $-0.35 | -17.5% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 16 of 33 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 16 | 50.0% | $-2.41 | -15.1% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 33 | 45.5% | $-6.91 | -20.9% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| shepparton | 10 | 30.0% | $-4.50 | -45.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 14 | 50.0% | $-3.01 | -21.5% |
| Tue | 10 | 30.0% | $-4.50 | -45.0% |
| Thu | 2 | 50.0% | +$0.25 | +12.5% |
| Fri | 7 | 57.1% | +$0.35 | +5.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.08 (-4.2% ROI) on 2 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-15 | melton | Very Tempting | 2.80 | +$1.80 |
| 2026-06-09 | shepparton | Madam Reactor | 2.30 | +$1.30 |
| 2026-04-23 | ballarat | Katunga Express | 2.25 | +$1.25 |
| 2026-05-25 | horsham | Happily | 1.90 | +$0.90 |
| 2026-05-01 | mildura | Ravishing Roxy | 1.80 | +$0.80 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-11 | maryborough | High Tempo | 1.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-15 | charlton | Walkin Understarz | 2.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | shepparton | Thereshewas | 1.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | melton | Teerdee | 1.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | terang | Cee Whos Bettor Nz | 2.30 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.