← Back to dashboard
Darren Carroll
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (34 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 44.1% trails market-implied 60.1% by -15.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-8.83
Implied Win % (1/odds)
60.1%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 34 | $-8.83 | -26.0% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 33 | $-10.63 | -32.2% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 32 | $-11.88 | -37.1% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 29 | $-14.73 | -50.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 11 | 45.5% | 1.70 | $-3.12 | -28.4% |
| 2026-04 | 7 | 42.9% | 1.71 | $-1.85 | -26.4% |
| 2026-05 | 16 | 43.8% | 2.02 | $-3.86 | -24.1% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 26 | 46.2% | $-8.03 | -30.9% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 5 | 60.0% | +$2.20 | +44.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 4 | 75.0% | +$0.79 | +19.8% |
| Rank 2 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 5 of 34 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 5 | 60.0% | $-0.21 | -4.2% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 34 | 44.1% | $-8.83 | -26.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| maryborough | 7 | 28.6% | $-4.08 | -58.3% |
| shepparton | 6 | 16.7% | $-4.25 | -70.8% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 17 | 41.2% | $-6.88 | -40.5% |
| Tue | 8 | 37.5% | $-2.55 | -31.9% |
| Thu | 2 | 50.0% | +$0.25 | +12.5% |
| Fri | 7 | 57.1% | +$0.35 | +5.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-15 | melton | Very Tempting | 2.80 | +$1.80 |
| 2026-04-23 | ballarat | Katunga Express | 2.25 | +$1.25 |
| 2026-03-31 | swan hill | Thunderfire | 2.15 | +$1.15 |
| 2026-05-25 | horsham | Happily | 1.90 | +$0.90 |
| 2026-05-01 | mildura | Ravishing Roxy | 1.80 | +$0.80 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-11 | maryborough | High Tempo | 1.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | shepparton | Thereshewas | 1.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | melton | Teerdee | 1.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-18 | terang | Cee Whos Bettor Nz | 2.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | maryborough | Scar | 3.20 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.