Andre Kassay

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (21 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 28.6% trails market-implied 31.8% by -3.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +19.0%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-69.6%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

28.6%

Avg Odds

4.21

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-8.42

ROI

-40.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

31.8%

Calibration Gap

-3.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	21	$-8.42	-40.1%
Minus best 1 bet	20	$-11.02	-55.1%
Minus best 2 bets	19	$-12.32	-64.8%
Minus best 5 bets	16	$-14.72	-92.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+19.0%

Prior 60d ROI

-69.6%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	8	12.5%	4.28	$-6.05	-75.6%
2026-04	6	16.7%	4.78	$-3.70	-61.7%
2026-05	7	57.1%	3.65	+$1.33	+19.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	4	100.0%	+$2.68	+67.0%
2.0-3.0	3	33.3%	$-0.70	-23.3%
3.0-5.0	10	10.0%	$-6.40	-64.0%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 3	2	50.0%	$-0.15	-7.5%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 4 of 21 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	4	25.0%	$-2.15	-53.8%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	21	28.6%	$-8.42	-40.1%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-10	echuca	Zuppa Inglese	3.60	+$2.60
2026-04-12	seymour	Amedei	2.30	+$1.30
2026-03-16	terang	Which Floor	1.95	+$0.95
2026-05-17	stawell	Nothin' Wong Here	1.85	+$0.85
2026-05-10	echuca	Regal Gent	1.60	+$0.60

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-29	bendigo	Zentorno	9.00	$-1.00
2026-04-02	ballarat	Southern Crescent	4.20	$-1.00
2026-04-09	geelong	Tsavo	4.80	$-1.00
2026-03-16	terang	The Last King	2.70	$-1.00
2026-04-09	geelong	Hotinherre	10.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.