Andre Kassay

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-29 05:11 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Small sample (17 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 35.3% beats market-implied 28.4% by +6.9pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 2750% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -35.3% on 15 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +28.3%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-13.6%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -9.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw +1.2%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +20.6% (-19.5% → +1.2%) · Shrunk ROI: +6.2% (-15.6% → -9.4%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

35.3%

Avg Odds

5.60

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$0.20

ROI

+1.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-9.4%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

28.4%

Calibration Gap

+6.9pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	17	+$0.20	+1.2%
Minus best 1 bet	16	$-2.60	-16.2%
Minus best 2 bets	15	$-5.30	-35.3%
Minus best 5 bets	12	$-10.00	-83.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+28.3%

Prior 60d ROI

-13.6%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	4	25.0%	4.90	$-0.30	-7.5%
2026-07	7	28.6%	2.99	$-1.20	-17.1%
2026-08	6	50.0%	9.12	+$1.70	+28.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	9	44.4%	+$0.70	+7.8%
3.0-5.0	3	66.7%	+$4.50	+150.0%
5.0-8.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	4	75.0%	+$4.20	+105.0%
Rank 2	5	40.0%	+$1.10	+22.0%
Rank 4-5	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	5	20.0%	$-2.10	-42.0%

Based on 16 of 17 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	16	37.5%	+$1.20	+7.5%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	17	35.3%	+$0.20	+1.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
ballarat	6	50.0%	+$3.10	+51.7%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.48 (+47.7% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-26	ballarat	Quello Dorato	3.80	+$2.80
2026-06-07	mornington	Delicate Lady	3.70	+$2.70
2026-08-17	ballarat	Stuntman	2.90	+$1.90
2026-08-27	geelong	In'kantosstar	2.40	+$1.40
2026-08-17	ballarat	Saludar	2.40	+$1.40

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-18	pakenham	Dundonald	2.90	$-1.00
2026-07-19	pakenham	Dundonald	2.90	$-1.00
2026-07-26	ballarat	Convaaya	2.30	$-1.00
2026-06-07	mornington	Centenary Florin	2.90	$-1.00
2026-08-24	ballarat	Fire In Your Heart	10.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-08-29 05:11 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.