Andre Kassay

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (13 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 46.2% beats market-implied 34.7% by +11.5pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 515% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -38.8% on 11 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -8.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw +7.9%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +23.1% (-15.2% → +7.9%) · Shrunk ROI: +5.2% (-13.9% → -8.7%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

46.2%

Avg Odds

3.95

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$1.03

ROI

+7.9%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-8.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

34.7%

Calibration Gap

+11.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	13	+$1.03	+7.9%
Minus best 1 bet	12	$-1.67	-13.9%
Minus best 2 bets	11	$-4.27	-38.8%
Minus best 5 bets	8	$-6.72	-84.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-05	7	57.1%	3.65	+$1.33	+19.0%
2026-06	4	25.0%	4.90	$-0.30	-7.5%
2026-07	2	50.0%	3.10	+$0.00	+0.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	100.0%	+$1.73	+57.7%
2.0-3.0	2	50.0%	+$0.00	+0.0%
3.0-5.0	5	40.0%	+$2.30	+46.0%
5.0-8.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	1	100.0%	+$1.00	+100.0%
Rank 2	2	50.0%	+$1.70	+85.0%
Rank 3	2	50.0%	$-0.15	-7.5%
Rank 4-5	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 10 of 13 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	10	30.0%	$-2.45	-24.5%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	13	46.2%	+$1.03	+7.9%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.48 (+47.7% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-07	mornington	Delicate Lady	3.70	+$2.70
2026-05-10	echuca	Zuppa Inglese	3.60	+$2.60
2026-07-13	bairnsdale	My China Plate	2.00	+$1.00
2026-05-17	stawell	Nothin' Wong Here	1.85	+$0.85
2026-05-10	echuca	Regal Gent	1.60	+$0.60

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-29	bendigo	Zentorno	9.00	$-1.00
2026-06-07	mornington	Centenary Florin	2.90	$-1.00
2026-05-29	bendigo	Dealer Sing	4.80	$-1.00
2026-07-12	bairnsdale	Give Some Lip	4.20	$-1.00
2026-06-04	swan hill	Seethru	7.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.