← Back to dashboard
Andre Kassay
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (13 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 30.8% beats market-implied 26.6% by +4.2pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -3.8%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-24.0%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +1.5% (-13.0% → -11.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +0.3% (-13.0% → -12.7%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-1.50
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-12.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
26.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 13 | $-1.50 | -11.5% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 12 | $-4.30 | -35.8% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 11 | $-6.20 | -56.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 8 | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 5 | 20.0% | 2.94 | $-1.20 | -24.0% |
| 2026-08 | 6 | 50.0% | 9.12 | +$1.70 | +28.3% |
| 2026-09 | 2 | 0.0% | 7.50 | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 7 | 42.9% | +$0.70 | +10.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 1 | 100.0% | +$2.80 | +280.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 3 | 66.7% | +$3.20 | +106.7% |
| Rank 2 | 3 | 33.3% | $-0.60 | -20.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 6 | 16.7% | $-3.10 | -51.7% |
Based on 12 of 13 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 12 | 33.3% | $-0.50 | -4.2% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 13 | 30.8% | $-1.50 | -11.5% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| ballarat | 6 | 50.0% | +$3.10 | +51.7% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-26 | ballarat | Quello Dorato | 3.80 | +$2.80 |
| 2026-08-17 | ballarat | Stuntman | 2.90 | +$1.90 |
| 2026-08-27 | geelong | In'kantosstar | 2.40 | +$1.40 |
| 2026-08-17 | ballarat | Saludar | 2.40 | +$1.40 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-18 | pakenham | Dundonald | 2.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-19 | pakenham | Dundonald | 2.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | bendigo | Salann | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-26 | ballarat | Convaaya | 2.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | ballarat | Fire In Your Heart | 10.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.